Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Skye]

So, El Norte de Castilla has posted precinct maps for some Castillian provinces. Thing is, my hometown of Palencia saw very little change, other than the PP regaining ground and an improvement of the PSOE, and since VOX just barely improved from their April performance, the map has very few variations. The PP once again won resoundingly in the city centre, while the PSOE performed well in the more working class areas. Tale as old as time, I guess.

If anyone wants to check them: https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/elecciones/generales/consulta-votado-ciudad-20191111141632-nt.html

[mgop]

It's beautiful to see c's in ruins. Most evil party in Spain.

[Skye]

Sorry for the double post, but eldiario.es has uploaded the national precinct map! Check it out: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-resultados-elecciones-generales-calle_0_962404599.html

Some Madrid pics:

Madrid City centre: Podemos wins Lavapiés again.


The wealthy Salamanca and Chamartín districts: Strongholds of the right.


The orange belt is gone: The PP wins in the northern PAUs of Madrid (Las Tablas, Sanchinarro, Montecarmelo, Valdebebas), where C's had one of their strongest performances in the past election.


La Moraleja: One of the (if not the?) wealthiest neighborhoods in Spain. Left who?


The wealthy suburbs to the northwest of Madrid: These are the urban municipalities where the right performs the best in the Community of Madrid. One of these, Pozuelo de Alarcón, is the wealthiest in Spain.


The red belt: These are the working class municipalities to the south of Madrid that Velasco mentioned. The left does well in these.

[Velasco]

I think the big issue for C's is they were borne from the outrage at the craven corruption of Rajot et al, but those scandals are starting to fade away into the past.

Cs lost credibility as champion against corruption when Rivera decided to support the PP in Madrid, Castilla y León and Murcia. All these regions have been in the PP hands for decades with numerous corruption scandals. While the oranges had the pretext of the ERE scandals to oust socialists from the Andalusian government with the help of the far right, it's very difficult to explain the deals with PP and Vox in the other regions. The Rivera's sectarianism against the left and his departure from the centre were at the expense of one of the Cs founding banners: the "democratic regeneration" (i.e cleanliness and fight against corruption). Obviously time plays in favour of the PP as people begins to forget...

[Velasco]

Sorry for the double post, but eldiario.es has uploaded the national precinct map! Check it out:

Wonderful news!

My precinct: PSOE 30.9, PP 22.1, UP 19.8, VOX 10.9, NC-CC 5.3, Cs 4.6

Turnout 60 (down 9)

I suspect that I mixed up my precinct with a neighbouring and more left leaning one in previous interactive maps. I checked the income map by precinct and mine is just on the national average.

[SPQR]

It's very interesting how income is a significant predictor of left/right vote, even when accounting for Vox - the La Moraleja result is just startling...
Here in Italy for instance wealthy neighbourhoods in big cities have gone hard towards PD in the last year.


What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

[Oryxslayer]

It's very interesting how income is a significant predictor of left/right vote, even when accounting for Vox - the La Moraleja result is just startling...
Here in Italy for instance wealthy neighbourhoods in big cities have gone hard towards PD in the last year.


What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Income/class tends to be the superior indicator of partisan lines in those countries with a 'recent' authoritarian past. Those who are wealthy got their wealth during the regime and are more likely to have some fond memories or at least rose-tinted glasses in regards to it's failings. If you were not wealthy or successful during the regime, you look back on it's failings much harsher, and gravitate towards those who carry on the tradition of the opposition from those years. Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards. This is a simplistic  explanation why Madrid is a Right stronghold despite this decades global trend that has seen the youth increasingly urbanize and dominate cities, Madrid boomed during Franco's years.

[Skye]

Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards.

Well, in Venezuela it isn't exactly due to that. Our last authoritarian regime lasted from 1952 to 1958, and the relevance that it may hold today is debatable (there are certainly some nostalgic for the era, but not nearly on Franco's level). Our voting patterns are probably more due to the fact that chavismo's main pillar is to fuel class warfare as much as possible lol.

[Velasco]

What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Teruel Existe (TE) is a citizens' platform founded 20 years ago to defend the interests of Teruel province, that is afflicted by depopulation and lack of infrastructures. It's the first time that TE contests an election. The "forgotten province" is part of the so-called "Emptied Spain" and many of its inhabitants have migrated the neighbouring Zaragoza and Valencia. Deputy elect Tomás Guitarte is an architect and says that he's neither leftwing nor rightwing, although back in 1987 and 1991 he ran as local candidate for the centre-left regionalist Aragonese Union (CHA). Guitarte will sponsor legislative measures in favour of his province and the Emptied Spain. TE also won two seats in the Senate that could be decisive, given that the PSOE lost its majority in the Upper Chamber. I guess that Guitarte will be a politician in the fashion of the PRC leader Miguel Ángel Revilla, the regionalist premier of Cantabria

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Also, since we live in the same town, here are the results from my precinct, for an interesting comparison with Velasco's precinct:

Turnout: 69% (-4)

PSOE: 24% (+2)
PP: 24% (+6)
Vox: 18% (+8)
UP: 16% (-2)
CC: 7% (+3)
Cs: 5% (-15 !)
MP: 2% (+2)

So it seems in terms of right vs left basically nothing moved (if anything a tiny swing to the left), with Cs support going evenly to PP and Vox for some reason. Beyond that, Canarian regionalists win from basically everyone and not much change.

My precinct is a suburban middle class precinct quite far from the city center and with a rather rural "tone" to it (it feels more rural than areas that are even further away from the city).

[Skye]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

[Walmart_shopper]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

Haha. They should both be resigning from politics, not leading the country.

[Oryxslayer]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

[jaichind]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

To take PSOE-C off the table.  Having less choices clarifies the mind.   Research has shown that people are leas happy when their 401K gives them too many mutual funds to choose from.

[Skye]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

*Clown emoji intensifies*

[Velasco]

Preliminary deal between PSOE and UP (English version)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/12/inenglish/1573562718_041862.html

Caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the leader of left-wing Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, have signed a preliminary agreement to form a coalition government after Sunday’s inconclusive repeat general election in Spain. Despite months of negotiations between the parties to strike a governing deal following the April poll, the two leaders have done this deal less than 48 hours after Sunday’s vote (...)  

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

They have no other choice but making a virtue of need.

But yes: what was the point of this strategic fiasco, Mr Sánchez?

It won't be easy, but the deal will have the numbers to pass the investiture in a second vote. ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián said on election night that they won't block the formation of a progressive government. On paper, ERC is willing to abstain. However, the situation in Catalonia is  very turbulent and the pragmatic ERC leadership faces pressure from the Puigdemont group (JxCAT) and the far left (CUP).

[c r a b c a k e]

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

[Oryxslayer]

If Podemos and PSOE actually have a deal then it still needs one of the following to at minimum abstain:

-PP
-C's
-Catalan Parties
-Mutually incompatible parties like NA+, CCa, and El Bildu

PSOE+Podemos+Mas+EAJ/PNV+BNQ+TE!+PRC+El Bildu = 173

Which you know wouldn't be a problem if we had this deal last time -_-

[Lumine]

PP, C's and JxCat have said they'll vote against - CC hasn't ruled it out yet -, so it would seem they'll need ERC to abstain.

I know it's been said before, but still... Godd*mn, what was the point of the election then? Sanchez has made so many u-turns it's almost absurd.

[Intell]

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

Isn't podemos a have a referendum, Catalonia independence is a frivolous issue that doesn't matter sort of party.

While CUP is a Catalonia needs to be independent and socialist because Spain is a fasicst state oppressing catalans/other groups.

Don't think such an alliance would work, but I might be completely wrong.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

I personally expect CC to abstain, if only because of their deal with NCa, but I could see also a split vote (NCa voting yes and CC proper voting no).

Either way, CC-NC are irrelevant. It all comes down to ERC now. If they abstain we have a government. If they do not, it is over (Catalans+PP+Cs+Vox are at 175).

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?

There is some sort of solidarity, but not much. CUP puts the national question first. They are a party for radical far left Catalans who will never compromise. Unless said compromise involves putting the party of big business, led by a corrupt politician as premier of Catalonia because muh independence.

[crals]

Didn't ERC cause the first election by refusing to vote for the budget though? Even if they abstain now what's the point if the government is unable to pass a budget soon?

[SPQR]

What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Teruel Existe (TE) is a citizens' platform founded 20 years ago to defend the interests of Teruel province, that is afflicted by depopulation and lack of infrastructures. It's the first time that TE contests an election. The "forgotten province" is part of the so-called "Emptied Spain" and many of its inhabitants have migrated the neighbouring Zaragoza and Valencia. Deputy elect Tomás Guitarte is an architect and says that he's neither leftwing nor rightwing, although back in 1987 and 1991 he ran as local candidate for the centre-left regionalist Aragonese Union (CHA). Guitarte will sponsor legislative measures in favour of his province and the Emptied Spain. TE also won two seats in the Senate that could be decisive, given that the PSOE lost its majority in the Upper Chamber. I guess that Guitarte will be a politician in the fashion of the PRC leader Miguel Ángel Revilla, the regionalist premier of Cantabria

Thanks!
It's fascinating really - heard a lot about "Emptied Spain", the fact that "forgotten lands" are now going all the way to elect their own place-based representatives is quite a step from simply voting for anti-establishment parties.

[Walmart_shopper]

How likely is the ERC to abstain?

[Swedish Austerity Cheese]

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

Pedro Sánchez, the Theresa May of Spain.