Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Skye]

Melilla finally finished counting, and the PP kept the seat by 0.58%.

[Skye]

Some rough math points to me that (barring the regions with those quirky indepenentist/regionalist parties) the left improved the most in Madrid. The left vote in Madrid is 45.5%, up from 43.5% in April. The Right is down from 53.3 to 52.3, so it's a 3.1 swing in the left's favor. Probably due to Errejon's relatively strong showing.

[Skye]

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.

I guess that was to be expected, since C's performed really well there in the past election. Still,  the only medium sized municipality they won seems to be Valdemoro. The PP still beat them easily in the wealthier municipalities of northwestern Madrid.

[Skye]

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

[Skye]

So, El Norte de Castilla has posted precinct maps for some Castillian provinces. Thing is, my hometown of Palencia saw very little change, other than the PP regaining ground and an improvement of the PSOE, and since VOX just barely improved from their April performance, the map has very few variations. The PP once again won resoundingly in the city centre, while the PSOE performed well in the more working class areas. Tale as old as time, I guess.

If anyone wants to check them: https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/elecciones/generales/consulta-votado-ciudad-20191111141632-nt.html

[Skye]

Sorry for the double post, but eldiario.es has uploaded the national precinct map! Check it out: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-resultados-elecciones-generales-calle_0_962404599.html

Some Madrid pics:

Madrid City centre: Podemos wins Lavapiés again.


The wealthy Salamanca and Chamartín districts: Strongholds of the right.


The orange belt is gone: The PP wins in the northern PAUs of Madrid (Las Tablas, Sanchinarro, Montecarmelo, Valdebebas), where C's had one of their strongest performances in the past election.


La Moraleja: One of the (if not the?) wealthiest neighborhoods in Spain. Left who?


The wealthy suburbs to the northwest of Madrid: These are the urban municipalities where the right performs the best in the Community of Madrid. One of these, Pozuelo de Alarcón, is the wealthiest in Spain.


The red belt: These are the working class municipalities to the south of Madrid that Velasco mentioned. The left does well in these.

[Skye]

Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards.

Well, in Venezuela it isn't exactly due to that. Our last authoritarian regime lasted from 1952 to 1958, and the relevance that it may hold today is debatable (there are certainly some nostalgic for the era, but not nearly on Franco's level). Our voting patterns are probably more due to the fact that chavismo's main pillar is to fuel class warfare as much as possible lol.

[Skye]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

[Skye]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

*Clown emoji intensifies*

[Skye]

El País is reporting that the PNV lost a seat to the PP in Euskadi (I think it's from the province of Vizcaya). So now the PP has 89 deputies.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/13/actualidad/1573633022_648788.html

[Skye]

Remember a few weeks ago when the INE reported the median individual/household income by census blocks and we were discussing how it translated to electoral results by precinct? Well, eldiario.es has posted a great article today about it!

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-zonas-pobres-PP-Ciudadanos-10N_0_963104386.html

For example, this chart shows a clear correlation between, say, how the vote share for the PSOE drops steadily the higher the income percentile, or how the PP's vote share jumps dramatically in the highest income percentiles:


This one shows the overall left v. right vote as it relates to income on a national level:


And this one by autonomous community. Obviously, it's more complicated than it seems in some regions thanks to the strength of pro-independence parties (Looking at you, Catalonia and Basque Country):


Plus, a nifty precinct map that also includes income info by precinct, and also shows how the wealthier and poorer precincts vote: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPAS-Espana-pobre-elecciones-calle-10N_0_963104406.html

[Skye]

how accurate is this map?

Well, it was kinda accurate before, you know, C's got slaughtered everywhere.

I guess it also depends on the region. As far as I can tell, UP has weak performances in Castile and León city centres. Then again, city centres around here are full of old people, not exactly UP's constituency.

[Skye]

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.

Oh, definitely not. Even passing a budget will be a huge challenge. I do expect Sánchez to pass a (late) budget for 2020. However a 2021 budget seems very hard to pass in my opinion, and 2022 and beyond is not happening.

I would expect this government to last for around 2-3 years; definitely nowhere near a full term. The next election will be some time in 2022 I believe.

Yikes. I assumed this was going to be the end of it.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/telediario_tve/status/1212838365294403591

So the PRC is a no and ¡Teruel Existe! is a yes.

[Skye]

So it's very likely that Sánchez will win that vote, right? No last minute changes?

[Skye]

As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC.

Keep in mind it's not just old emigrants returned from Venezuela, but young Venezuelans who migrated to Spain and hold Spanish citizenship. But yeah, I'd dare to say most Venezuelan expats in Spain that pay just a modicum of attention to politics don't have a positive image of Podemos, to say the least.

[Skye]

As I said before, she's very vocal against Podemos due to alleged chavista links. The influence of former Canarian emigrants returned from Venezuela is strong in some insular branches of CC.

Keep in mind it's not just old emigrants returned from Venezuela, but young Venezuelans who migrated to Spain and hold Spanish citizenship. But yeah, I'd dare to say most Venezuelan expats in Spain that pay just a modicum of attention to politics don't have a positive image of Podemos, to say the least.

I know most Venezuelan expats are anti- Chavez and don't have a good opinion of Podemos, despite Pablo Iglesias and others began to take distance from the post-Chávez disaster some time ago. In any case, I was referring to the CC membership in Santa Cruz de Tenerife province. Curious fact: it surfaced the not so young Juan Guaido's father was a taxi driver in Tenerife (maybe he's still there). Anyway, the Canary Islands have close ties to Venezuela due to historical emigration. CC has a presence in the country via Canarian emigrants and their offspring (they can vote in our elections if they hold Spanish citizenship). In the case of Ana Oramas, she's from a family of landowners in Tenerife. I ignore if she has some relatives in Venezuela, as nearly everybody in her province. Another fun fact: the grandmother of the Podemos deputy Alberto Rodríguez (an engineer notorious because of his rastaman appearance, curently secretary for organization) was a humble seamstress who made seam works for the Oramas' family and other wealthy families  elin La Laguna.

There were emigrants from Las Palmas province too (case of Quevedo s family), but their influence is not so strong. Personally I have met several Venezuelans from both sides (a majority here is anti-Chávez, but there are exceptions)


 P
to

I don't want to derail this thread further, but yes, ties to the Canary Islands in Venezuela are common. My father told me my great-grandmother was from there, but good luck trying to prove that now

I imagine now that the migration rate has exploded, it's more feasible that you meet pro-Chávez Venezuelans. A few years ago, when primarily wealthier folks migrated, that probably would have been more difficult. In the 2012 election, just before he died, Chávez received just under 7% of the vote from Venezuelans living in the Canary Islands: http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2012/r/2/reg_992603.html

Granted, turnout was low (I imagine it's because the only voting center for people in the region is in Tenerife so people from the other islands had to travel there to vote), plus there is the fact that there are few Venezuelans registered to vote abroad, not in minor part because chavismo likes to make it difficult for folks like us to vote.

To tie this to the thread, don't think us Venezuelans abroad are right wingers just because most of us hate Chávez and Maduro with a passion. I know for a fact some of my friends here are quite happy with the PSOE winning, even if they probably aren't exactly thrilled with the Podemos deal. After all, Venezuelan politics is vastly dominated by leftist parties. That said, many, if not most, will cringe at the mere prospect of having people with a history of praising chavismo in the government, and will vote accordingly; which in Spain, clearly means voting for the right wing parties.

[Skye]

Little political storm this week concerning Venezuela. On the one hand, there has been controversy over the visit of opposition leader and "president in charge" Juan Guaidó. Pedro Sánchez decided not holding a meeting with Guaidó, whom met with Foreign Affairs minister instead. Obviously this has raised harsh criticism from the opposition, whose leader Pablo Casado held a brief meeting with the Venezuelan leader. Guaidó was also greeted by local and regional authorities in Madrid (governed by a PP-Cs coalition) as well attended a demonstration of Venezuelan expats against Maduro. The decision of Sánchez also exposed a rift between former socialist PMs José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and Felipe González, with the latter unconditionally aligning with the Venezuelan opposition and the former advocating a negotiation that leads to democratic elections. On the other hand, a brief meeting between Transport minister José Luis Äbalos and the Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodríguez at Madrid airport generated considerable buzz in the media, with allegations of "secret talks"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/24/inenglish/1579861959_005340.html

Opposition parties in Spain are calling on the transportation minister, José Luis Ábalos, to confirm whether or not he met in secret with the Venezuelan vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, in the early hours of Monday morning at Madrid’s Adolfo Suárez-Barajas airport. European Union sanctions prevent Rodríguez from entering the bloc’s airspace.

According to a story published on Spanish news website Vozpopuli, Ábalos held a meeting with President Nicolás Maduro’s second-in-command inside a private plane owned by the company Sky Valet, taking advantage of a technical stop in Spain on the way to Turkey.

The story also stated that Rodríguez and six of her traveling companions, including her chief of staff, entered one of the VIP lounges in Barajas. Vozpopuli reported that Ábalos denied having met with the Venezuelan lawmaker.

Ábalos, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), has told EL PAÍS that he was at the airport on private business, to meet the Venezuelan tourism minister, Félix Plasencia, with whom he has been friends for several years and who was traveling on the same plane as the Venezuelan vice-president.

Plasencia, who is a Spanish citizen, according to the minister, arrived in Madrid as the head of the Venezuelan delegation attending the Fitur tourism fair, currently taking place in the Spanish capital.

Ábalos told EL PAÍS that he did not have any formal contact with the Venezuelan vice-president and that a meeting with her was not his intention when he traveled to the airport. He added that in recent months he has had a number of meetings with members of the Venezuelan opposition, including the acting president, Juan Guiadó

But by Friday afternoon, police sources were telling a different story. According to their version of events, Ábalos was called to the scene given Rodríguez’s insistence that she be allowed to disembark from the aircraft. The minister is alleged to have boarded the plane to convince her not to step onto Spanish soil, given that such an action would cause a diplomatic incident (...)

Yet another communication error made by Sánchez and Ábalos

Yes, Venezuelans in Spain, at least those who pay attention to politics, aren't happy with Sánchez. His decision makes little sense considering he recognized Guaidó as interim president last year, and Guaidó met with BoJo and Macron earlier this week. So it's hard not to see this as Sánchez just wanting to avoid internal conflict within his administration, or worse, ceding to pressure from Podemos (Pablo Iglesias said this week that Guaidó is no longer president of the Venezuelan National Assembly, so much for distancing themselves from chavismo, huh?).

And the situation with Ávalos was just the icing on the cake.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/Santi_ABASCAL/status/1237336925041766401

Holy crap VOX's Secretary General Javier Ortega Smith has Coronavirus.

[Skye]

So, the country seems to be having a 🔥THIS IS FINE🔥 moment regarding the Coronavirus pandemic. How are your cities? Mine is doing fine for now. There are no Coronavirus cases in my province AFAIK. Though I've seen pictures from Madrid that show empty supermarket shelves. I'd rather not go through that again, thanks.

[Skye]

That poll looks like rightwing propaganda. The prediction for PP and Cs is pure science fiction, while Vox is probably too low. I'd say the position of the PSOE-UP coalition is more consolidated under current corcumstances. The PP regional governments are cooperating, as well the Catalan separatists... even PP leader has stated willingness to pass an emergency ''reconstruction'' budget! In short, those jerks at esdiario are insulting our intelligence

On the other hand, the king's popularity must be reaching a nadir after recent developments and the uninspiring address tonight. It's about time the CIS and the other pollsters ask about monarchy!

It would make sense if the people are dissatisfied with the government's response to the crisis. But we don't have any data on that yet, so it seems we'll have to wait for other polls for confirmation.

[Skye]

Nobody has really mentioned it, but the 2 days ago PM Sánchez requested a 15 day extension of the state of alarm in order to deal with the coronavirus (otherwise it would expire this Sunday).

And we are most likely headed for another one.

[Skye]

This may be a bit late, but I made a map of the November General election results in the city of Madrid by barrios. It's presented by ideological blocs, i.e. Blue = Right (PP+VOX+C's), Red = Left (PSOE+UP+MP). And yes, I'm using Atlas colors, because why not.

Anyway, the Ayuntamiento de Madrid had the results available by barrio and I obviously couldn't result the urge to map it. Hope you like it.

[Skye]

It's map time again! I know this it's late, and the map is a bit messy, but screw it. Here's a neighborhood level map of the 2019 Madrid City Council election, by ideological blocs.

[Skye]

Why does Vox do better among men, while PP and Cs have no major gender gap at all? I assume it's a side-effect of the age gap?

If you know Spanish, this article details the profile of an average Vox voter: http://agendapublica.elpais.com/el-perfil-del-votante-de-vox/

Also, isn't the alt-right in America composed mainly by younger males? Vox is soooort of like that.