|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 09, 2020, 07:18:28 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Dalla Piccola)
  Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 [50] 51 52 53 54 55 ... 59 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)  (Read 90868 times)
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1225 on: November 10, 2019, 07:18:27 pm »


I would not say that its a tactical defeat for him. For those in the PSOE establishment, Podemos was always the greater threat than VOX cannibalizing the right. Just look how Susana Díaz/Gonzales did everything in their power (as far as conspiring with PP) to keep Podemos from Power. Podemos weakened and split, while PSOE stays practically stable, is tactically not a bad result for PSOE.
Although it is sad for the Spanish Left overall of course (and its state of being reduced to bitter factionalism), and not good for Spanish Democracy.

But PSOE lost 3 seats even as it got UP to lose 7.  Not sure how I read that as any sort of tactical victory.

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1226 on: November 10, 2019, 07:28:18 pm »

99.99% counted

PSOE   28.00%  120   (-3)
PP        20.82%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.09%   52 (+28)
UP        12.84%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (+2)

If you add in NA+ and Coalició Compromís in April 2019 the seats and vote share change in the Right and Left Blocs are

                   April                    Nov
            Vote       Seat      Vote       Seat
Left     43.65%    166     43.24%    158
Right   43.22%    149     43.11%    152

Pretty much no change with virtual tie.
Logged
urutzizu
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 748
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1227 on: November 10, 2019, 07:29:03 pm »

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns.  

Perhaps I am too cynical, but believe that this is what Sanchez tacitly wants: UP refusing to budge, so he can use the excuse to pass the Investure with help of Casado (who has already indicated tonight he is open to talks with PSOE) under the pretense of "creating a stable government in the national interest" or some bubbly statement like that.

If he wanted to govern with UP he would have done so. They agreed on almost everything, the policy paper, Podemos Ministers in Government, Iglesias out of Government, and then he just suddenly ends the talks. It just does not sound to me like someone who wants to govern with Podemos. Rather their marginalisation and delegitimisation seems his goal. But who knows. Speculation on my part. Its not like Podemos is entirely innocent in that whole saga either.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,001


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1228 on: November 10, 2019, 07:49:02 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 07:58:02 pm by Oryxslayer »

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns.  

Perhaps I am too cynical, but believe that this is what Sanchez tacitly wants: UP refusing to budge, so he can use the excuse to pass the Investure with help of Casado (who has already indicated tonight he is open to talks with PSOE) under the pretense of "creating a stable government in the national interest" or some bubbly statement like that.

If he wanted to govern with UP he would have done so. They agreed on almost everything, the policy paper, Podemos Ministers in Government, Iglesias out of Government, and then he just suddenly ends the talks. It just does not sound to me like someone who wants to govern with Podemos. Rather their marginalisation and delegitimisation seems his goal. But who knows. Speculation on my part. Its not like Podemos is entirely innocent in that whole saga either.

The talks collapsed because the negotiations between PSOE and Podemos revealed that Sanchez and  Iglesias's egos were mutually incompatible. Both believed they had more to sell than the  other, and as any backing down could be interpreted as weakness. Even if this was ignored, it would come up again, and again in the future. There is a lot of pride here: one is the leader a long-lasting party who successfully utilized the grassroots to counter-coup his rivals. The other is a personalistic campaigner who heads an insurgent party with the goal of disrupting the old establishment. If neither was going to give way, then both were fated to go their separate ways. If Casado is to back PSOE's govt, it's because he is (and was recognized to be by everyone  last cycle) far more malleable and less personalistic than his rivals.  
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1229 on: November 10, 2019, 07:55:02 pm »

The pro-independence parties grew by less than I would have thought in Catalonia given recent events and rise of VOX in the rest of Spain.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,871
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1230 on: November 10, 2019, 08:20:00 pm »

Catalonia:

ERC 22.56% (-2.03%) 13 (-2)
PSC-PSOE 20.51% (-2.7%) 12 (nc)
JxCAT 13.68% (+1.63%) 8 (+1)
ECP 14.18% (-0.71%) 7 (nc)
PP 7.43% (+2,58%) 2 (+1)
CUP 6.35% (FR 2.74%) 2 (+2)
VOX 6.3% (+2.7%) 2 (+1)
Cs 5.61% (-5,94%) 2 (-3)

Nationalists 42.59% (+3,21%) 23 (+1)
Left (incl MP) 35.77% (-2.33%) 19 (nc)
Right 19.35% (-0.65%) 6 (-1)

Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,871
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1231 on: November 10, 2019, 08:36:20 pm »

Results in my province, Las Palmas

PSOE 29,15% (+0.83%) 3 (nc)
PP 21.39% (+5.18%) 2 (nc)
UP 15.41% (-1.31%) 1 (-1)
VOX 13.3% (+6.3%) 1 (+1)
NC-CC 9.94% (-3.1%)* 1 (+1)
Cs 5.78% (-9.63%) 0 (-1)

NC and CC ran separately in April, getting 6.65% and 6.39% respectively

Finally UP lost the second seat to the regionalist coalition, with VOX winning the seat lost by Cs. MP got 1.7% of the vote; even adding UP+MP it's not enough to double the regionalist list. UP came second in April slightly ahead of PP (it was catastrophic result for the conservatives)
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,543
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1232 on: November 10, 2019, 09:11:15 pm »

While it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe (even if slowly), Vox’s performance today is discouraging.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1233 on: November 10, 2019, 10:06:50 pm »

it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe

God I wish that were true.
Logged
xelas81
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
Heard Island and McDonald Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1234 on: November 10, 2019, 10:28:15 pm »

How come BNG made the comeback?
Logged
National Progressive
General Mung Beans
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,322
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1235 on: November 11, 2019, 12:11:41 am »

1) Was Vox's gains more due to direct transfers from the C's (as at least one post here indicates) or due to a "two-step" swing where PP voters swung to Vox but then C voters went over to the PP?

2) It seems like the C's have significant ideological affinity to the UPyD. Why did the former gain at the expense of the latter and are there differences in the compositions/worldviews of those two parties?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,796
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1236 on: November 11, 2019, 12:26:53 am »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 12:24:14 pm by Tender Branson »

Murcia: The Saxony of Spain.
Logged
ericpolitico
Rookie
**
Posts: 154
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1237 on: November 11, 2019, 02:03:26 am »

Can anyone help to explain why did Ciudadanos lose 3/4 of their seats?
Logged
Good Habit
Rookie
**
Posts: 20
Switzerland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1238 on: November 11, 2019, 04:10:49 am »

Can anyone help to explain why did Ciudadanos lose 3/4 of their seats?
Well, initially, C's seemed to fill a niche in the Center, to the left of PP. Then they tried to take over the leadership of the right, inheriting the place of PP. When this failed, they tried it even further to the right, thus legitimizing VOX. So they vacated the niche between PSOE and PP, couldn't replace PP, and didn't find a large enough niche between PP and VOX..
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,153
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1239 on: November 11, 2019, 07:39:02 am »

Rivera Quits, Gives Up Politics
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,871
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1240 on: November 11, 2019, 07:48:51 am »

Albert Rivera quits after electoral debacle

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/11/inenglish/1573467972_489207.html

Quote
The leader of Spanish political party Ciudadanos (Citizens), Albert Rivera, today resigned from his role in the wake of the center-right group’s dismal showing in Sunday’s repeat general election /...)

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Rivera explained his reasons for quitting. “Out of responsibility, I must resign from this position,” he said. “Bad results belong to the leader.” He went on to announce that he was also quitting as a deputy in Congress, saying that he was doing so “for the good of the project.” He added that he wanted to “make way for another deputy who is passionate about entering Congress. I have never been tied to a seat in politics.” He made clear that he was “leaving politics. Public life. I have enjoyed it, and I have learned.”
 
Logged
Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,827
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1241 on: November 11, 2019, 08:05:47 am »

I still refuse to believe that Teruel actually exists.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1242 on: November 11, 2019, 08:33:30 am »

I'm starting to think the countless elections benefit bipartisan politics and that C's collapse is also due to lack of resources, experience and obvious leadership outside of the broken record Rivera. How exactly is Arrimadas going to turn their fortunes around?
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,543
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -4.35


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1243 on: November 11, 2019, 08:35:15 am »

it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe

God I wish that were true.

I've been hopeful following results in Austria, Switzerland, German local elections, etc
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,429
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1244 on: November 11, 2019, 09:02:25 am »

Is the Teruel member who was elected considered more right or left?
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,871
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1245 on: November 11, 2019, 09:40:51 am »


The consequences of this fiasco in the years to come are unpredictable
Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,489
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1246 on: November 11, 2019, 09:50:48 am »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,635
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1247 on: November 11, 2019, 09:58:19 am »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.

I guess that was to be expected, since C's performed really well there in the past election. Still,  the only medium sized municipality they won seems to be Valdemoro. The PP still beat them easily in the wealthier municipalities of northwestern Madrid.
Logged
CumbrianLeftie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1248 on: November 11, 2019, 10:00:43 am »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.

Well, with Chega "doing well" is something of a relative term tbf.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,635
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1249 on: November 11, 2019, 10:17:29 am »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 45 46 47 48 49 [50] 51 52 53 54 55 ... 59 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines