Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[morgankingsley]

LaFollette runs the second most successful third party in history

[morgankingsley]

Wallace gets his peak of 7 percent, and Thurmond does his peak of 3-4 percent and wins the entire deep south

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In my opinion, Trump's probably best mark

[morgankingsley]

1980

Jimmy Carter
241 electoral votes
29,267,080 popular votes (34%)

Ronald Reagan
168 electoral votes
28,637,976 popular votes (33%)

John Anderson
129 electoral votes
28,375,016 popular votes (33%)

How did Anderson do so well

[morgankingsley]

Better Goldwater campaign 1964

President Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey-Democratic: 463 EV 58.05%
Barry Goldwater/William Miller-Republican: 75 EV 41.47%

Is Goldwater at over 90 percent Mississippi

[morgankingsley]

Past Elections with Equal Popular Vote

Trump/Pence 47% pv, 328 EV
H. Clinton/Kaine 47% pv, 210 EV

Obama/Biden: 49% pv, 272 EV
Romney/Ryan: 49% pv, 266 EV

Obama/Biden: 49.65% pv, 298 EV
McCain/Palin: 49.65% pv, 240 EV

Kerry/Edwards: 49.5% pv, 284 EV
G.W. Bush/Cheney: 49.5 pv, 254 EV

G.W. Bush/Cheney: 48.8% pv, 287 EV
Gore/Lieberman: 48.8% pv, 251 EV

A trump win would be 328, a trump tie would be 320

[morgankingsley]

Had a dream last night that Beto was funded by his drug trafficking empire, ran as a third party, and picked Ellen Page as his VP. He also owned a bar, which I think was the HQ for his drug trafficking empire.

Senator Bernie Sanders / Senator Jeff Merkley 279

President Donald Trump / Vice President Mike Pence 259

Former Congressman Robert F. O'Rourke / Actress Ellen Page 0

2020 was assumed to be a Democratic landslide in the making after the October Shock of the previous year, but the party was deeply divided. Former congressman and failed Texas senatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke, who had mysteriously dropped out just before the primaries*, stood on the sidelines cheering for the "pragmatic" wing of the party first represented by Joe Biden and later by Kamala Harris. However, they were defeated by the revitalized progressive opposition, united from the start behind Bernie Sanders.

*had to sort out serious issues within his drug organization

Beto was furious as the prospect of a general election between two protectionist nominees. With more free time on his hands and bursting with his trademark brand of punk rocker energy, Beto thrust himself into the national spotlight once again....

In the end, just like the Perot before him, Beto did not actually win any electoral votes. While he ran with policy position that distinguished him with both other candidates, Beto ran more as a rockstar than a serious candidate. His choice of running mate was a Canadian actress ineligible for the presidency who happened to be insanely popular on Twitter that year, and in a year where both major candidates were criticized as demagogues Beto's rallies were more like rock concerts than either of them.

Just as his detractors feared, Beto acted as a spoiler for Sanders in the general election. What could have been a rout turned into a nailbiter as important states remained uncalled well into the night. In the end, Sanders pulled it off with a clear popular vote victory due to Beto's weakness in the midwest and his mistake of not visiting Wisconsin. Wisconsin was the closest state, and Beto did relatively poorly there. Beto still spoiled Bernie in Florida and Arizona, and possibly Ohio and Iowa, totaling 64 electoral votes given to the embattled incumbent President Trump. Beto's best state was New Mexico, which was only barely Democratic enough to prevent him from winning. He also did very well in California, with enough voters willing to go for him in a safe state that Sanders was held below a majority.

While Beto tried to become a mere celebrity bartender after his election, the real drama occurred during the Sanders presidency. It was then when the FBI and NSA discovered just what Beto was doing on the side running a hilariously unprofitable bar in El Paso. Naturally there was a media circus over the man's trial and conviction, and uncovering of crimes both his and worse ones committed by subordinates. President Sanders never spoke his name, and forbade anyone in the administration from even alluding to the trial. President Merkley, upon assuming office after Bernie Sanders died in 2023, continued this policy.

2024: Jeff Merkley wins a full term in office against Tom Cotton

2028: Jeff Merkley is defeated in a bid for a second full term.

It was only in January 2029 when lame duck President Merkley, having been defeated in a bid for a second full term in office by a scion of the Trumpist "National Conservative" movement, opened his mouth. Out poured a stream of anger and profanity none had witnessed from a sitting president in centuries. The candidate who was a rockstar, who was a kingpin, and both so much more and less than both, was given his due.

Beto O'Rouke would die in custody just a few years later. Some say the circumstances were suspicious, but none are opening their mouth.

Legal disclaimer: This post is based on someone else's dream and does not imply that Beto is a drug kingpin.

What if this did happen

[morgankingsley]

Had a dream last night that Beto was funded by his drug trafficking empire, ran as a third party, and picked Ellen Page as his VP. He also owned a bar, which I think was the HQ for his drug trafficking empire.

Senator Bernie Sanders / Senator Jeff Merkley 279

President Donald Trump / Vice President Mike Pence 259

Former Congressman Robert F. O'Rourke / Actress Ellen Page 0

**SNIP**

Legal disclaimer: This post is based on someone else's dream and does not imply that Beto is a drug kingpin.

Beautiful. Thanks for writing that out! I made the following map before seeing yours, also a narrow win for Bernie. Funny that the states are the same. I added in a far-right ticket of Don Blankenship and Roy Moore to help boost Sanders over Trump. And of course, the mini-TL that I had grand thoughts (but no real intention of putting in the effort needed) included Blankenship going on about “Cocaine Beto.”

I might make a county map of Texas though. I had Beto narrowly beating Sanders in Texas, with Beto winning some counties. Also have him winning Imperial County, CA for kicks.

I know that this is just alternate history and stuff, but I do not really see a situation where if two democrats are splitting the ticket like this where Trump does not come up with a easy win. It just seems impossible to me. Here is my realistic ish map on this silly case, and on this one, I did give Beto a couple of states just for kicks

[morgankingsley]

There is no point to this map, I just wanted to see what the colors would look like on the 10% thing since I've never seen that

Edit: Interesting, it doesn't even process for republican, democrat, or independent, and only for fourth parties and beyond. And with the white color, you can effective add another party to the race if you want, as long as you put at least a '4' on the party number

[morgankingsley]

There is no point to this map, I just wanted to see what the colors would look like on the 10% thing since I've never seen that

Edit: Interesting, it doesn't even process for republican, democrat, or independent, and only for fourth parties and beyond. And with the white color, you can effective add another party to the race if you want, as long as you put at least a '4' on the party number

What happened to AL, AK, and AZ? Their electoral numbers got erased but the other white states didn't get theirs erased.

Those were just not processed for some reason. My guess is that maybe since 20 percent counts as state legislature victories for republican, democrat, and independent, maybe the processor didn't imagine any way where it could go lower than that (so pretty much no five or six way relatively even race) but with '4' and beyond since there has almost never been four parties to win states in elections, maybe it was able to process that way. Maybe you can ask Dave about it on the Atlas board. He might be able to explain it

[morgankingsley]

2016 but all states won by less than 50.1 percent are flipped

Oregon would barely flip to Trump in this case by about 600 votes. Ends up in a 284-254 Hillary win. Trump ends up being the first republican to win at least one west coast and new england state and lose since 1976 and the first republican to win Minnesota at all since 1972. He is the first to win any new england state at all since 2000, the first to win any west coast at all since 1988, the first to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico at all since 2004, and the first candidate to win Ohio but lose the electoral college since 1960. On the opposite end, Hillary is the first democrat to win Utah at all since 1964, and the first to win Arizona at all since 1996.

ironic since in this situation, I think 2016 might be the inverse of real life. In this, I think Trump might actually win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. This is probably the most realistic Trump win popular vote - lose electoral vote - situation you can possibly get.

Now that I think about it, I think this also makes this universes 2016 the first election in which a republican won at least one state in every single region of the country since 1988

[morgankingsley]

Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:

I think this would make Thurmond the only third party in history to win at least two states, and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote

[morgankingsley]

Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:

I think this would make Thurmond the only third party in history to win at least two states, and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote

I think there was another segregationist third party candidate who won at least two states...

I said, "and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote" meaning 50.1 percent or over

[morgankingsley]

Donald Trump - 325 electoral votes (60.4 percent) / 46.33 percent popular vote
Hillary Clinton - 207 electoral votes (38.5 percent) / 46.25 percent popular vote
Evan McMullin - 6 electoral votes (1.1 percent) / 0.3 percent popular vote
Gary Johnson - 0 electoral votes / 5.21 percent popular vote

[morgankingsley]

Trump 330
Gore 208

Trump runs as his 2016 self. He wins The Rust Belt, New Hampshire, Maine, Florida and all the South for a near-landslide victory for Trump.

If he wins Virginia he wins Minnesota

[morgankingsley]

Is this a Bush does better in 1992 alternate history? What would the popular vote in these two even be

[morgankingsley]

John Kasich's Presidency

Governor John Kasich/Governor Nikki Haley
Secretary Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine

President John Kasich/Vice President Nikki Haley
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Fmr Governor Deval Patrick

FTR, I do actually believe Kasich would do this well as president, with a booming economy and no scandals (unlike Trump).

Johnny K will be 2 terms then Haley takes over. It would’ve been a boring scandal-free Presidency.

Yeah say what you will about Trump and his performance, nobody would argue that the presidency was boring. For better or for worse, this is easily the most interesting term of my lifetime

[morgankingsley]

Inspired by bagelman's map, the election of 1200.

Trump / Pence - 216 EV, 19,115,678 PV (56.44%)
Clinton / Kaine - 174 EV, 1X,079,80X PV (59.48%)
Johnson / Weld - 1,605,EE9 PV (4.89%)
Stein / Baraka - 5X3,36X PV (1.65%)
McMullin / Finn - 2E3,733 PV (0.93%)
Others - 477X58 PV (1.27%)

Trump wins the popular vote by default since there is no way in hell a woman would get the nomination in 1200

[morgankingsley]

Guess.

Trump beats beto

[morgankingsley]

Guess.

Guess what

[morgankingsley]

At least the south is still relatively safe democrat here

[morgankingsley]

The true 2020 map

I mean, we all know that Kansas will never vote republican again, and Virginia is basically the stronger Kansas. But since outside these two states and DC, Trump has built a unbreakable lead, he still wins in a near Nixon landslide.

[morgankingsley]

Tried my best to fit this together; might write a timeline on it

What put Trump over the top in Minnesota

[morgankingsley]

Tried my best to fit this together; might write a timeline on it

What put Trump over the top in Minnesota

Biden gave Minnesota very little attention during the campaign. On election night, Hawkins got 5% of the vote and Kokesh managed to break 1.5%. Biden scarcely improved on Clinton's raw vote total, while Trump added about 80,000 votes. Twin Cities gave Hawkins about 7% of their total vote and the rural areas continue to swing away from the Democratic Party.

Final total:
Trump: 1,404,709
Biden: 1,402,225
Hawkins: 167,657
Kokesh: 45,725
Others: ~28,000

Thanks for the answer. I think this might be the most realistic Trump wins Minnesota case I've seen yet. And you can tell that Hawkins will never go the rest of his life without facing the scrutiny over this event