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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #175 on: May 25, 2019, 04:29:20 PM »


Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:

I think this would make Thurmond the only third party in history to win at least two states, and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote

I think there was another segregationist third party candidate who won at least two states...

I said, "and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote" meaning 50.1 percent or over
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #176 on: May 25, 2019, 04:37:25 PM »



Donald Trump - 325 electoral votes (60.4 percent) / 46.33 percent popular vote
Hillary Clinton - 207 electoral votes (38.5 percent) / 46.25 percent popular vote
Evan McMullin - 6 electoral votes (1.1 percent) / 0.3 percent popular vote
Gary Johnson - 0 electoral votes / 5.21 percent popular vote
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #177 on: May 25, 2019, 05:19:49 PM »


Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:

I think this would make Thurmond the only third party in history to win at least two states, and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote

I think there was another segregationist third party candidate who won at least two states...

I said, "and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote" meaning 50.1 percent or over
Yes, the "and" is the problem.

"Thurmond was the only third-party candidate to win more than two states, and he won them with at least 50% of the vote."

vs.

"Thurmond was the only third-party candidate to win more than two states with at least 50% of the vote."

/grammarnazi
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #178 on: May 26, 2019, 03:57:14 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 05:51:59 PM by Stephen Curry is Awesome »



JOE /// Ryan 304
Donald Trump///Mike Pence 234



2020 SENATE WAVE MAP: DEMs Net: AZ, CO, GA and TX



2019-20 Gubernatorial map: NC flips and NH and KY goes Democratic
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Mr. Smith
MormDem
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« Reply #179 on: May 27, 2019, 12:03:25 PM »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 01:58:16 PM by Let Dogs Survive »

The Vote Distribution (1920-1936)

A.


B.


C.


D.

E.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
Harry S Truman
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« Reply #180 on: May 29, 2019, 02:28:04 PM »

2019 United Kingdom general election
using 2019 European Union election results


451   Brexit Party (New)
088   Labour Party (-174)
056   Scottish National Party (+21)
031   Liberal Democrats (+19)
005   Plaid Cymru (+1)
001   Green Party (—)
000   Conservative Party (-318)
000   Change UK — The Independent Group (New)
000   United Kingdom Independence Party (—)
018   Northern Ireland
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Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #181 on: May 29, 2019, 07:15:22 PM »

2019 United Kingdom general election
using 2019 European Union election results


451   Brexit Party (New)
088   Labour Party (-174)
056   Scottish National Party (+21)
031   Liberal Democrats (+19)
005   Plaid Cymru (+1)
001   Green Party (—)
000   Conservative Party (-318)
000   Change UK — The Independent Group (New)
000   United Kingdom Independence Party (—)
018   Northern Ireland


Am I seeing this right or is the conservative party about to die out?

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538Electoral
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« Reply #182 on: May 29, 2019, 09:25:15 PM »



Trump 330
Gore 208

Trump runs as his 2016 self. He wins The Rust Belt, New Hampshire, Maine, Florida and all the South for a near-landslide victory for Trump.
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #183 on: May 29, 2019, 09:38:43 PM »



Trump 330
Gore 208

Trump runs as his 2016 self. He wins The Rust Belt, New Hampshire, Maine, Florida and all the South for a near-landslide victory for Trump.

If he wins Virginia he wins Minnesota
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538Electoral
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« Reply #184 on: May 29, 2019, 11:30:49 PM »



Trump 330
Gore 208

Trump runs as his 2016 self. He wins The Rust Belt, New Hampshire, Maine, Florida and all the South for a near-landslide victory for Trump.

If he wins Virginia he wins Minnesota

Virginia was still a Republican state at the time. Trump would've probably won Virginia anyway.
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andjey
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #185 on: May 30, 2019, 01:44:25 PM »

1992 Presidential election

Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) 405 EVs; 45,4% PV
Pres. George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/VP Dan Quayle (R-IN) 133 EVs; 36,7% PV
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX)/Vice Admiral James Stockdale (I-IL) 0 EVs; 16,9% PV


1996 Presidential election

Pres. Al Gore (D-TN)/VP Bob Graham (D-FL) 413 EVs; 54,6% PV
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Frm. Sec. Jack Kemp (R-NY) 125 EVs; 45,4% PV


2000 Presidential election

VP Bob Graham (D-FL)/Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) 343 EVs; 51,5% PV
Gov. George W. Bush (R-TX)/Frm. Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) 195 EVs; 44,4% PV


2004 Presidential election

Pres. Bob Graham (D-FL)/VP Patty Murray (D-WA) 282 EVs; 49,9% PV
Gov. Tommy Thompson (R-WI)/Frm. Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) 256 EVs; 47,5% PV


2008 Presidential election

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) 373 EVs; 53,2% PV
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) 165 EVs; 44,9% PV


2012 Presidential election

Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/VP Olympia Snowe (R-ME) 328 EVs; 53,2% PV
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA)/Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) 210 EVs; 44,9% PV
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Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #186 on: May 31, 2019, 01:02:48 PM »

2019 United Kingdom general election
using 2019 European Union election results

451   Brexit Party (New)
088   Labour Party (-174)
056   Scottish National Party (+21)
031   Liberal Democrats (+19)
005   Plaid Cymru (+1)
001   Green Party (—)
000   Conservative Party (-318)
000   Change UK — The Independent Group (New)
000   United Kingdom Independence Party (—)
018   Northern Ireland


Am I seeing this right or is the conservative party about to die out?

They’re definitely having issues since they’re still trying to play both sides of the Brexit card. Labour is having similar issues as well. I think some of the Lib Dems’ and Brexit’s strength is because they were seen as the big winners in last week’s EU elections and they have clear stances re: Brexit.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #187 on: May 31, 2019, 01:20:50 PM »

2019 United Kingdom general election
using 2019 European Union election results

451   Brexit Party (New)
088   Labour Party (-174)
056   Scottish National Party (+21)
031   Liberal Democrats (+19)
005   Plaid Cymru (+1)
001   Green Party (—)
000   Conservative Party (-318)
000   Change UK — The Independent Group (New)
000   United Kingdom Independence Party (—)
018   Northern Ireland


Am I seeing this right or is the conservative party about to die out?

They’re definitely having issues since they’re still trying to play both sides of the Brexit card. Labour is having similar issues as well. I think some of the Lib Dems’ and Brexit’s strength is because they were seen as the big winners in last week’s EU elections and they have clear stances re: Brexit.

The Brexiteers and the Lib Dems are sure to make some impressive gains, largely because these parties really have nowhere else to go but up. But I do not think the Conservatives will quite go the way of the Indian National Congress and be reduced to irrelevance. I think Labour will have the edge going into the next election, which is a real pity
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Cassandra
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« Reply #188 on: May 31, 2019, 05:35:53 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2019, 07:23:27 PM by Situationist »







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Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #189 on: May 31, 2019, 06:09:09 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 01:17:35 PM by Grassr00ts »

2016 Republican Primary alternative scenarios

Blue = Trump, Yellow = Cruz, Green = Rubio, Red = Kasich



Rubio victory scenario:



Contrary to the Iowa theory, Rubio's best path to the nomination would start with South Carolina and Nevada. He would have to depend on decreased Cruz and Kasich support but that may come naturally after winning two early primary states.



Cruz victory scenario:



A Cruz victory would linger on him winning South Carolina in addition to Iowa. Victory would also linger on decreased Rubio margins and increased Kasich margins.



Kasich victory scenario:



A Kasich victory would linger on a victory in New Hampshire, as well as a decrease in Trump and Rubio turnout. This is because, as a establishment moderate, going against a christian social conservative campaign is easier than a populist economically liberal campaign.



I believe are the most likely victory scenarios for each candidate, please feel free to ask questions and give input.
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #190 on: May 31, 2019, 06:30:16 PM »


Is this a Bush does better in 1992 alternate history? What would the popular vote in these two even be
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #191 on: May 31, 2019, 08:07:41 PM »

John Kasich's Presidency



Governor John Kasich/Governor Nikki Haley
Secretary Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine



President John Kasich/Vice President Nikki Haley
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Fmr Governor Deval Patrick

FTR, I do actually believe Kasich would do this well as president, with a booming economy and no scandals (unlike Trump).
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HomestarSB9
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« Reply #192 on: June 06, 2019, 05:10:36 PM »

1968: Landslide Lyndon wins in a squeaker.



Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX) / Vice Pres. Hubert H. Humphrey (D-MN) - 270 electoral votes, 51% of the popular vote.
Gov. Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA) / Sen. Carl Curtis (R-NE) - 268 electoral votes, 49% of the popular vote.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #193 on: June 08, 2019, 03:59:36 AM »

Tom Corbett wins reelection in 2014 and becomes the 2016 Republican nominee:



✓ Governor Thomas W. Corbett (R-PA)/Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC): 300 EV. (49.04%)
Former Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 238 EV. (48.85%)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #194 on: June 09, 2019, 01:49:33 AM »

Corbett's approvals were dismal and wouldn't have beaten Hilary
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BigVic
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« Reply #195 on: June 09, 2019, 02:59:36 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2019, 03:03:44 AM by BigVic »

John Kasich's Presidency



Governor John Kasich/Governor Nikki Haley
Secretary Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine



President John Kasich/Vice President Nikki Haley
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Fmr Governor Deval Patrick

FTR, I do actually believe Kasich would do this well as president, with a booming economy and no scandals (unlike Trump).

Johnny K will be 2 terms then Haley takes over. It would’ve been a boring scandal-free Presidency.
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #196 on: June 09, 2019, 01:14:15 PM »

John Kasich's Presidency



Governor John Kasich/Governor Nikki Haley
Secretary Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine



President John Kasich/Vice President Nikki Haley
Governor Andrew Cuomo/Fmr Governor Deval Patrick

FTR, I do actually believe Kasich would do this well as president, with a booming economy and no scandals (unlike Trump).

Johnny K will be 2 terms then Haley takes over. It would’ve been a boring scandal-free Presidency.

Yeah say what you will about Trump and his performance, nobody would argue that the presidency was boring. For better or for worse, this is easily the most interesting term of my lifetime
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538Electoral
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« Reply #197 on: June 10, 2019, 03:39:16 AM »

Using President Elect - 1988 Edition to project a closer 1972 election.



Tipping point state is Maryland where Nixon beat McGovern by 52 votes.

Nixon - 271 Electoral Votes
McGovern - 267 Electoral Votes
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #198 on: June 10, 2019, 05:38:23 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 05:44:20 PM by Stephen Curry is Awesome »



Joe Biden/Tim Ryan 296
Trump/Mike Pence 242





Senate:

Democrats 51
GOP 49
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538Electoral
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« Reply #199 on: June 14, 2019, 08:25:37 AM »

Using President Elect to project a Goldwater 1964 victory.



Goldwater - 277
Johnson - 261
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