Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[Sir Mohamed]

Bill Clinton as Grover Cleveland 2.0

1996, all Perot votes going to Dole. Clinton wins NPV, but loses EC.

✓ Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Former HUD Secretary Jack Kemp (R-NY): 288 EVs.; 49.1%
President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 250 EVs.; 49.2%


2000, Clinton elected prez again

✓ Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Governor Frank O'Bannon (D-IN): 339 EVs.; 46.0%
President Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Vice President Jack Kemp (R-NY): 199 EVs.; 43.0%
Businessman Ross Perot (I-TX)/Mr. Patrick Choate (I-WA): 0 EVs.; 8.5%


NPV margin is the same; and like Cleveland in his 2nd run, Clinton picks an Indiana governor as VP. And like Thomas Hendricks, O'Bannon would die during the upcoming term.

[OBD]

Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE) / Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 53.1% 395 EVs
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 42.6% 143 EVs

A bit of dreaming never hurt anyone

[President Johnson]

1964: Kennedy lives on, gets in trouble with Bobby Baker scandal, drops LBJ from the ticket and Nelson Rockefeller is the Republican nominee.

✓ Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor James Rhodes (R-OH): 291 EV. (50.17%)
President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (D-MA)/Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 240 EV. (47.25%)
Unpledged electors: 7 EV.


1968: The last election with a Deep South (Democratic) versus the entire rest (Republican). DC goes Republican for the only time in history.

✓ President Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Vice President James Rhodes (R-OH): 477 EV. (60.71%)
Senator George Smathers (D-FL)/Governor Edmund G. Brown (D-CA): 61 EV. (38.23%)

[Grassroots]

Final primary map

Buttigieg won Iowa

[morgankingsley]

1964: Kennedy lives on, gets in trouble with Bobby Baker scandal, drops LBJ from the ticket and Nelson Rockefeller is the Republican nominee.

✓ Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor James Rhodes (R-OH): 291 EV. (50.17%)
President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (D-MA)/Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 240 EV. (47.25%)
Unpledged electors: 7 EV.


1968: The last election with a Deep South (Democratic) versus the entire rest (Republican). DC goes Republican for the only time in history.

✓ President Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Vice President James Rhodes (R-OH): 477 EV. (60.71%)
Senator George Smathers (D-FL)/Governor Edmund G. Brown (D-CA): 61 EV. (38.23%)

Arkansas was the most loyal Democratic state of the South, voting D every single time from 1876 to 1964. In this case, I think Arkansas pulls one last Democratic vote like this

[President Johnson]

snip

Arkansas was the most loyal Democratic state of the South, voting D every single time from 1876 to 1964. In this case, I think Arkansas pulls one last Democratic vote like this

The reason I gave it to Rockefeller is because his brother Winthrop was a two-term governor of the state in the 1960s. The first Republican since Reconstruction. Also, LBJ underperformed in Arkansas in 1964, even though he won the state over Goldwater.

[VPH]

A Brewer in the White House
In the midst of an economic slowdown and wreaked by the fallout of a botched response to COVID-19, the Democrats united around Former Colorado Governor, who turned surprising wins in Iowa and New Hampshire into resounding success on Super Tuesday. After receiving the endorsement of former Vice President Joe Biden, who decided not to run as well as former candidates Governor Steve Bullock, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Senator Kamala Harris, Hickenlooper soared in the polls. In a battle with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, he won enough moderate voters to prevail as the nominee.

Simultaneously, the country's economy continued to decline. Numerous Republicans declined to endorse the Trump campaign, which fended off a challenge from former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake in the primary. After much speculation, Mike Pence was kept on the ticket. However, the American public was decidedly frustrated and rewarded Hickenlooper with a big win.

Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper/Senator Tammy Duckworth - 321
President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence - 217

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Donald Trump vs. Coronavirus*

Coronavirus 284 EV
Donald Trump 254 EV

*Based on Google Trends, 9/1/19-3/13/20 (assumed DC for Coronavirus)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Senate class 2022 D+3

Sen elect R AL Shelby retires
Sen-elect R IA Grassley retires
Sen-elect D NC
Sen-elect D PA
Sen-elect D WI KIND

2022 Gov map

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden did have a 400 vote Landslide,  in the primary, Final primary map

[Grassroots]

Biden did have a 400 vote Landslide,  in the primary, Final primary map

Fixed

[Agonized-Statism]

2012

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Senator Matthew Ellis (R-MA) / Secretary of Health and Human Services Miguel Rodriguez (R-CO) ✓

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1964

Kennedy 281
GOLDWATER 257

If Johnson is assassinated instead of Kennedy in Dallas

[Agonized-Statism]

Six years after the Blip...

2024

Congresswoman America Chavez (D-NY) / General James Rhodes (D-PA)
Senator Robert Kelly (R-MA)* / Businessman Simon Trask (R-CA) ✓

*Took Ellis' senate seat, but Ellis was a McCain and Kelly is a Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2012

President Barack Obama (D-IL) / Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)
Senator Matthew Ellis (R-MA) / Secretary of Health and Human Services Miguel Rodriguez (R-CO) ✓

Obama wont lose PA with Biden on the ballot

[Agonized-Statism]

Obama wont lose PA with Biden on the ballot

Keep in mind, this is a superhero world where a major disaster just hit in New York City on the president's watch, and Pennsylvania was the closest of the Rust Belt three in our 2012. And I don't buy that Biden = Pennsylvania anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

S-MA Teddy Kennedy/Lloyd Bentsen 271 1980 40th Prez
T-CA Reagan/H.Bush 267

[CookieDamage]

Guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov mansions after 2022

[LabourJersey]

2020

Fmr. VP Joseph Biden (DE)/Sen. Kamala Harris (CA): 356 Electoral Votes, 53.5%
President Donald Trump (FL)/VP Michael Pence (IN): 182 Electoral Votes, 44.9%

2024

Sen. Rick Scott (FL)/Amb. Nikki Haley (SC): 301 Electoral Votes, 49.0%
VP Kamala Harris (CA)/Sen. Mike Kelly (AZ): 237 Electoral Votes, 49.0%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020

Fmr. VP Joseph Biden (DE)/Sen. Kamala Harris (CA): 356 Electoral Votes, 53.5%
President Donald Trump (FL)/VP Michael Pence (IN): 182 Electoral Votes, 44.9%

2024

Sen. Rick Scott (FL)/Amb. Nikki Haley (SC): 301 Electoral Votes, 49.0%
VP Kamala Harris (CA)/Sen. Mike Kelly (AZ): 237 Electoral Votes, 49.0%

Harris isnt gonna be nominee and Biden will win 279 EC votes.

[Agonized-Statism]

2016

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 176 EV
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R-CA) - 82 EV
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) / Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (I-HI) - 82 EV
Businessman Donald Trump (I-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (I-IN) - 198 EV

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Grassroots]

Gov mansions after 2022

You wish. BTW DeSantis isn't going anywhere.

[CookieDamage]

2024

Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)/Senator Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) - 272 EV - 50.84%

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)/Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) - 266 EV - 48.06%

GOP Pickups from 2020:
FL
ME
MI
MN
NH

DEM Pickups from 2020:
NE-02

12:45 AM - Vice President Tammy Baldwin is declared the winner of the 2024 election. She has apparently won a majority of the popular vote and has 272 electoral votes to Senator Josh Hawley's 266. It is the closest electoral match since 2000.

Just months ago, it seemed Josh Hawley was on his way to winning the election. A lagging economy in Q1 and Q2 worried the Democrats. They had no leader to rally around since President Biden announced he would not be running for a second term in late-2022. While the move was widely expected, it triggered an unexpected Democratic primary fight. Rep. Rashida Tlaib announced her campaign for the Democratic nomination in January 2023, followed by her moderate opposite Sen. Max Rose. It seemed like another rehash of 2016 and 2020, where the ideological tents of the party were viciously pitted against each other. However, the popular Vice President entered the race in late summer after conflicting reports on whether she'd run. Baldwin quickly amassed popular support as well as important donors. Despite this, the primary was still a struggle. Both Tlaib and Rose had committed supporters and money to spend. Rose scored an upset win in the first-in-the-nation Pennsylvania primary. His victory in New Hampshire put the Baldwin campaign on high alert and forced Tlaib out of the race. However, later knockout wins in Virginia and Nevada put her back on the map and earned her Biden's endorsement. Overwhelming victories on Super Tuesday made her the favorite. Rose dropped out and Tammy Baldwin soon became the first open LGBTQ nominee of any major party.

Baldwin was facing tough prospects. The economy was performing poorly throughout the Spring. Little jobs were created and unemployment was gradually rising. Rural areas were particularly hit. Unemployment in these areas was higher than the nation as a whole. Despite Democrats success in passing M4A in 2023, rural healthcare was in serious duress. Rural hospitals were shuttering as they had been for years and health care was noticeably harder to come by.

Other issues driving the plot were fears of widening civil instability in the country. It seemed there were two countries were emerging, separated by worldviews towards immigration, race, and social issues. Guns factored heavily as well. The La Brea Farmers Market Shooting in August dominated the airwaves and reignited the gun control debate. However, the context of the shooting also sparked dialogue over racism and violence: The shooter, 26 year old Trevor McDouglas, killed 15 people, 11 of which were of Hispanic descent, and claimed he did so to prevent "white genocide". Polls throughout the summer had Hawley leading Baldwin by anywhere from 2 to 12 points. His average lead was 6.7.

However, a rallying economy blunted rising unemployment and the Hospitals and Health Centers Bill was passed by the President, assuaging many Americans' fears. Baldwin began leading in several polls. By October, she had a net favorability rating of +2, beating Hawley's favorability rating of -1, although both were heavily divisive figures. By election day, Hawley only led the polling average by 0.4 points.

It was a long election night in 2024. The Vice President came very close to losing by 10 PM. However, she was saved by Wisconsin, her home state, and North Carolina, where high black turnout was able to just barely nudge those two states to her corner. The Democrats can sigh a breath of relief tonight as they keep the White House and both chambers of Congress.

However, tonight should not be too much of a celebration. Senator Josh Hawley won five states President Biden carried four years ago, including the grand prize of Florida. Hawley won the rural areas in these states decisively and utilized the Trump Machine to turnout white voters in all five flipped states. His VP pick, the popular Ron Desantis, also helped flip Florida.

A noticeable trend in this election is the continued divide between urban-suburban and rural voters. Hawley won Texas and Georgia, two rapidly growing states, by only 2.1 and 2.8 percentage points respectively. Arizona, once a GOP bastion, was won rather comfortably by Baldwin, who carried it 52 to 44 points. North Carolina was carried in part by increased Democratic turnout in major cities and suburbs. North Carolina suburbs have lurched Democratic since 2020, giving Dems major congressional victories in 2022. Baldwin was able to pick up Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, which had not gone blue since 2008. The 2nd district is centered on Omaha and its suburbs. The district went blue in 2020 and stayed blue in 2022 and this year as well. In 2018, it had a Republican tilt, but because of continued realignment, now has a Cook PVI of D+2.

Conversely, Hawley became the first Republican candidate since 2000 to carry New Hampshire, and the first since 1988 to carry Maine (although Baldwin was able to win the 1st congressional district and net herself one electoral vote). Vermont was closer as well, going to Baldwin by 56 to Hawley's 44, the biggest GOP voteshare in over twenty years. The GOP made gains in upstate New York and central Pennsylvania as well. However, there is concern among GOP strategists that the party is maxed out among northeastern rural areas. This could spell doom for the party in Pennsylvania, where Dems are becoming the dominant party in suburbs and may regain lost ground among at least some rurals. However, others have pointed out there is still room to grow, perhaps setting the stage for a swing state Pennsylvania. However, a growing Philadelphia and Pittsburgh may make the state tilt Democratic for the time being.

Perhaps the most interesting is the upper Midwest, where Hawley did well in Minnesota and Michigan. Depressed urban turnout in Detroit as well as a surge in rural voters allowed Hawley to eke out a win. Similarly, in Minnesota we saw several ancestral Democratic areas flip solidly to the Republicans. Even with turnout typical in Minneapolis, Hawley again eked out a razor-thin win. There are caveats to this Republican success: Minneapolis is growing, and after decades of population loss, so is Detroit. Baldwin could very well win these two states in 2028 if turnout is high in these growing urban centers.

Unsurprisingly, Hawley won his state. His win of 62.35% to Baldwin's 35.25 is one of the highest GOP voteshares in decades and one of the poorest DEM ones in just as long. Baldwin's performance in Missouri is worse than Clinton and McGovern's.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pre coronavirus 70 M to 65 M

Post coronavirus 66 M to 64 M and a red wave can develop