Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This is an interesting set of maps. Do you have any thoughts on the second county flips map which I posted?

Well, that one seems pretty standard. The huge glut of Yankee Republican counties in Pennsylvania/New York is the most interesting part, I imagine it is a Lyndon Johnson ripoff (where he incredibly flipped counties that had never gone D and won them by landslide margins, in that area).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??

Woops, I actually meant that to read Donald J. Trump, Jr.

Anyway I heard Trump Jr loved going out to Montana, so I thought it wasn't crazy he'd get a ranch there and claim to be "a resident of Real America" before running for POTUS.

Ahhh. Interesting idea, although probably Trump Jr. does not have the slightest idea about how running a ranch works hahahah.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The popular vote keeps getting it wrong

You are sadistic.

(Also, Pence breaking 60% in Iowa? Man, that's a realignment!)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.

Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.

Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.

That's right, though you could just switch DC and Delaware.

Sorry for being a pedant, but in that case New Jersey would be non-contiguous.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.

Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.

They did say "states" so technically DC doesn't count

This is actually a fair take. You're right.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Abortion should be legal in most cases 376
Abortion should be illegal in most cases 162
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/21/do-state-laws-on-abortion-reflect-public-opinion/

I am shocked that rate of support for abortion rights is identical in Oklahoma and Minnesota.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

looks like:

Close, but for one state.

The wrong state is New York?

Otherwise PA or MA.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's actually NE.

Crazy! Seeing Douglas, Lancaster and a bunch of others all in red fools easily.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It's actually NE.

Crazy! Seeing Douglas, Lancaster and a bunch of others all in red fools easily.

It would definitely be close, within 3%. But which states split their ticket between President and Senate?

Ehm we already know that as you posted the presidential map and now we have (or better Weatherboy has) guessed the Senate map.
So they are Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, Florida, Virginia, Maryland and New York (counting the two New England independents as Democratic-caucusing, as they are in real life).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So this is what the future looks like if Trends Are Real™:

(Basically I went to the Cook 2020 Demographic Swingometer and set "White, non college graduate" at 100% Republican and "White, college graduate" at 100% Democratic)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Coasts (D) - 310 EV
Heartland (R) - 228 EV

So yeah going full coastal elitist might actually be a good strategy for the Democratic Party.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Who does Bobby pick for VP?

Oof, didn’t think about that.

Eugene McCarthy maybe? They were both against the Vietnam War. I don’t know how much that would’ve helped or hurt them. Though maybe if the JFK nostalgia was still strong then he could probably pull it off, or maybe the average voters back then would’ve saw both of them as too far left.

The only way Kennedy wins Maine (with >50% to boot) is if he picks Ed Muskie as running mate. It would not have gone to Humphrey in real life otherwise, as the comparison to nearby Vermont and New Hampshire, which had a pretty similar electoral history, shows.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Based on Pew's Religious Landscape Study, Protestants lose the popular vote by almost 7% but are relatively competitive in the Electoral College.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Based on Pew's Religious Landscape Study, Protestants lose the popular vote by almost 7% but are relatively competitive in the Electoral College.

Zombie Cecil Calvert weeps that his proud Catholic colony now has a below-average proportion of Catholics. Of course, he'd have had my head off, and that of any other non-Trinitarian.

As a Catholic but also (I believe) a tolerant person, I am sympathetic to both of you.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Republican presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

- SNIP -

Updated post 2020:

Donald Trump 2020

John McCain 2008

George W. Bush 2004

Ronald Reagan 1984

Richard Nixon 1972

Dwight Eisenhower 1956

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Which Democratic presidential candidate received the most votes in each state.

- SNIP -

Updated post 2020:

Joe Biden 2020

Barack Obama 2012

Barack Obama 2008

Bill Clinton 1996

Bill Clinton 1992

Jimmy Carter 1976

Lyndon Johnson 1964

Franklin Roosevelt 1932

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I thought this might be a funny comparison since the two women received a number of votes in the same order of magnitude: Jill Stein vs Jo Jorgensen.



Jill Stein - 1,457,288 - 43.86%
Jo Jorgensen - 1,865,622 - 56.14%

Some things I would note:
- Stein was not on the ballot in Nevada, Oklahoma and South Dakota, and she was only available as a write-in option in Georgia, Indiana and North Carolina.
- in part because of Jorgensen wasted votes in those states, the map is pretty good for Stein if we consider she loses the PV by more than 12%.
- the map overall looks shockingly similar to any D vs R scenario from the 2000's in which the Republican wins by 4 or 5 points.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Here is a map of a new scenario I've devised. This is of an alternate 2020 election. Who are the candidates? What is the electoral and popular vote? What are the coalitions?

This map is... weird. I am down for the challenge.

The Democrat is presumably a Mississippian... Jim Hood? The Republican would be someone like Mitt Romney I suppose.
The Republican wins the popular vote by something like 12 to 15 percentage points and carries every state save for Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
I can barely hazard any thoughts about the coalitions, if not that the Democrat runs a campaign laser-focused on the South and the Republican takes advantage of it to scoop up support everywhere else especially with moderate liberals in urban and suburban areas.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

This map is based on how many times each state has voted Democratic for president compared to how many times it has voted Republican, updated to 2020, using the apportionment numbers of the 2020 Census. The Democrats narrowly win, and according to a quick check that I made they would do so even if I excluded the years before the Republican Party - the younger of the two - was founded, although only with a plurality.