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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #750 on: August 26, 2020, 06:19:58 AM »


Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #751 on: August 26, 2020, 07:05:15 AM »


Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??

Woops, I actually meant that to read Donald J. Trump, Jr.

Anyway I heard Trump Jr loved going out to Montana, so I thought it wasn't crazy he'd get a ranch there and claim to be "a resident of Real America" before running for POTUS.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #752 on: August 26, 2020, 07:10:58 AM »

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??

Woops, I actually meant that to read Donald J. Trump, Jr.

Anyway I heard Trump Jr loved going out to Montana, so I thought it wasn't crazy he'd get a ranch there and claim to be "a resident of Real America" before running for POTUS.

Ahhh. Interesting idea, although probably Trump Jr. does not have the slightest idea about how running a ranch works hahahah.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #753 on: August 26, 2020, 07:24:08 AM »

Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-MT)/Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): 281 Electoral Votes, 47.4%
Pres. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Vice President Phil Murphy (D-NJ): 257 Electoral Votes, 50.2%

Yes, yes, but why in the hell did Trump move to Montana??

Woops, I actually meant that to read Donald J. Trump, Jr.

Anyway I heard Trump Jr loved going out to Montana, so I thought it wasn't crazy he'd get a ranch there and claim to be "a resident of Real America" before running for POTUS.

Ahhh. Interesting idea, although probably Trump Jr. does not have the slightest idea about how running a ranch works hahahah.

True, but that hasn't stopped any rich person before.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #754 on: August 27, 2020, 12:29:28 AM »
« Edited: August 27, 2020, 12:33:56 AM by Calthrina950 »

A further Ferguson Scenario map. This is what the 2016 election in that scenario would look like without the largest counties (in terms of population, not land size) of every state:


For the most part, the map would look similar to the actual map, which for reference is posted here again:


The idea for this map derives from this thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172538.0. In two states would the result be flipped. Ferguson would have lost Utah without Salt Lake County, 50.98-49.02%, and Florida without Miami-Dade County, 50.21-49.79%. Both Salt Lake and Miami-Dade Counties give more than 60% of the vote to Ferguson, clearly providing him with his margin of victory in their states. Without their largest counties, Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Nevada, South Dakota, and Tennessee would all still go for Ferguson, but would be within single digits. South Carolina, however, would be pushed into single-digit territory without its largest county (Greenville). Georgia would become a double-digit win for Pryor without Fulton County. Surprisingly, Ferguson would still win Idaho, Virginia, and Nebraska without their largest counties, and by virtually identical margins. Arizona would have been more than 60% Democratic without Maricopa County, while Washington and Delaware would slip under the 60% mark without King and New Castle Counties.

Overall, Ferguson wins the largest counties of 48 states; Pryor wins the largest counties in Kansas (Johnson) and South Carolina (Greenville). Both of those states are pushed leftwards when those counties are removed; Kansas becomes a double-digit win for Ferguson without Johnson.
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Elcaspar
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« Reply #755 on: August 27, 2020, 03:53:33 PM »

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:


Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

Would you happen to have the link for that universal swing calculator? It would be much appreciated.
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Breton Racer
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« Reply #756 on: August 27, 2020, 07:26:37 PM »

One of the most intriguing presidential match-up possibilities in history to me was Reagan vs. Hart. Hart being a much younger and more moderate alternative to Walter Mondale would have allowed him to connect to the younger and historically Democratic parts of the electorate (Allowing him to re-engage many southern Democrats, but not at '76 levels). His status as a western Democrat would have endeared him with many independents across the nation. I envision he would still lose to the incredibly popular Ronald Reagan, but the margin would have been significantly smaller than the actual election.



Reagan/Bush: 322 EVs (51%)
Hart/Murtha: 216 EVs (48%)

You begin to see the formation of the modern Democratic coalition, Western and Northeastern states plus the Great Lakes region. Hart is able to win back enough southern Democrats to carry Arkansas and Tennessee (Arkansas by around 5% and Tennessee by less than a point), and dominates Reagan in urban centers allowing him to carry NY, PA, IL, MD, WI, MA and MO. His status as a western Democratic senator wins him CO (his home state), NM, MT and that plus the evolving social views of the Pacific Northwest wins him OR and WA.

New England begins its leftward lurch with Vermont, New Hampshire and Connecticut being amongst the closest states all won by Reagan by under 5%.

I would imagine the closest states being IL, CA, VT, MT, MO and LA.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #757 on: August 27, 2020, 08:59:32 PM »

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:


Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

Would you happen to have the link for that universal swing calculator? It would be much appreciated.

I don't have a link to it, as the calculator is on an Excel spreadsheet. You could send Reagente a Personal Message and ask him to provide you with it.
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Elcaspar
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« Reply #758 on: August 28, 2020, 08:28:41 AM »

Here's a random map that I made, based off a post I made earlier today. This is what 2020 would look like if Joe Biden won with the same popular vote as Warren G. Harding a century ago, in 1920:


Joe Biden (D-Delaware)/Kamala Harris (D-California)-60.35%-515 EV
Donald J. Trump (R-Florida)/Mike Pence (R-Indiana)-34.12%-23 EV
Others-5.53%-0 EV

I utilized a universal swing calculator, designed by Reagente and provided by him to me, to create this. Obviously, this map is utterly unrealistic, and there is no such thing as a "universal swing", but it was an interesting thought experience nevertheless. I may create a county map of this down the road.

Would you happen to have the link for that universal swing calculator? It would be much appreciated.

I don't have a link to it, as the calculator is on an Excel spreadsheet. You could send Reagente a Personal Message and ask him to provide you with it.

Alright will do.
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Cassandra
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« Reply #759 on: August 29, 2020, 02:58:53 PM »

LaFollette's best case scenario? (Still a Coolidge EC victory)

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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #760 on: August 30, 2020, 02:04:05 AM »

LaFollette's best case scenario? (Still a Coolidge EC victory)



Nice! I made something similar a while ago. Very fun election to play with on a map:


President Calvin Coolidge
Republican - Massachusetts

11,650,482 votes (40.04%)
266 electors

Ambassador John W. Davis
Democratic - West Virginia
5,476,076 votez (18.82%)
149 electors

Senator Robert M. La Follette
Progressive - Wisconsin
11,816,335 votes (40.61%)
116 electors

Closest states:
Kentucky: 35.98% - 34.93%
Colorado: 44.44% - 43.02%
New Mexico: 34.52% - 33.02% - 32.46%
West Virginia: 35.45% - 34.07%
Missouri: 35.58% - 33.79%

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President Johnson
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« Reply #761 on: August 30, 2020, 11:16:58 AM »

The popular vote keeps getting it wrong

2004 United States presidential election



✓ Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Senator John Edwards (D-NC): 272 EV. (48.41%)
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Richard B. Cheney (R-WY): 266 EV. (50.62%)


2008 United States presidential election



✓ Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ)/Former Senator William Frist (R-TN): 274 EV. (48.33%)
President John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Vice President John Edwards (D-NC): 264 EV. (49.39%)


2012 United States presidential election



✓ Former President John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY): 308 EV. (49.22%)
Former Governor Willard M. Romney (R-MA)/Representative Paul D. Ryan (R-WI): 230 EV. (49.34%)


2016 United States presidential election



✓ Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 306 EV. (46.08%)
Vice President Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 232 EV. (48.18%)


2020 United States presidential election



✓ President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 270 EV. (46.68%)
Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 268 EV. (50.87%)


2024 United States presidential election



✓ Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 276 EV. (47.02%)
Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC): 262 EV. (51.32%)
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #762 on: August 30, 2020, 03:46:51 PM »


You are sadistic. Tongue

(Also, Pence breaking 60% in Iowa? Man, that's a realignment!)
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #763 on: September 02, 2020, 04:27:58 PM »

The popular vote keeps getting it wrong

2004 United States presidential election



✓ Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Senator John Edwards (D-NC): 272 EV. (48.41%)
President George W. Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Richard B. Cheney (R-WY): 266 EV. (50.62%)


2008 United States presidential election



✓ Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ)/Former Senator William Frist (R-TN): 274 EV. (48.33%)
President John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Vice President John Edwards (D-NC): 264 EV. (49.39%)


2012 United States presidential election



✓ Former President John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY): 308 EV. (49.22%)
Former Governor Willard M. Romney (R-MA)/Representative Paul D. Ryan (R-WI): 230 EV. (49.34%)


2016 United States presidential election



✓ Mr. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 306 EV. (46.08%)
Vice President Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 232 EV. (48.18%)


2020 United States presidential election



✓ President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 270 EV. (46.68%)
Senator Bernard Sanders (D-VT)/Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA): 268 EV. (50.87%)


2024 United States presidential election



✓ Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC): 276 EV. (47.02%)
Senator Kamala D. Harris (D-CA)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC): 262 EV. (51.32%)


Cool premise, though I think if the GOP lost because of an EV/PV split, the electoral college probably would have been altered or abolished
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #764 on: September 04, 2020, 07:36:57 PM »


Former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Kamala Devi Harris (Democratic, California) 413 electoral votes, 56% popular votes
President Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) / Vice President Nimrata Nikki Haley (Republican, South Carolina) 125 electoral votes, 41% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 3% popular votes
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #765 on: September 06, 2020, 06:53:26 AM »


Former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Kamala Devi Harris (Democratic, California) 413 electoral votes, 56% popular votes
President Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) / Vice President Nimrata Nikki Haley (Republican, South Carolina) 125 electoral votes, 41% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 3% popular votes

Montana and Kansas as the narrowest Republican wins, with Utah deep into the R. Interesting.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #766 on: September 06, 2020, 10:53:54 AM »


Former Vice President Joseph Robinette Biden (Democratic, Delaware) / Senator Kamala Devi Harris (Democratic, California) 413 electoral votes, 56% popular votes
President Michael Richard Pence (Republican, Indiana) / Vice President Nimrata Nikki Haley (Republican, South Carolina) 125 electoral votes, 41% popular votes
Others (Various) 0 electoral votes, 3% popular votes

Montana and Kansas as the narrowest Republican wins, with Utah deep into the R. Interesting.

It's possible though that this map shows Biden getting into the upper 30s, which would still represent the best Democratic performance in Utah in many years.
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andjey
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« Reply #767 on: September 06, 2020, 11:40:49 AM »

1968:

VP Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Sen. Edmund Muskie (D-ME) 273 EVs; 44.22% PV
Fmr. VP Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Gov. Spiro Agnew (R-MD) 220 EVs; 42.03% PV
Gov. George Wallace (DX-AL)/Gen. Curtis LeMay (DX-OH) 45 EVs; 10.88% PV

1972:

Pres. Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/VP Edmund Muskie (D-ME) 299 EVs; 51.44% PV
Gov. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Sen. Hiram Fong (R-HI) 239 EVs; 48.05% PV

1976:

Fmr. Gov. Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/Fmr. Gov. George Romney (R-MI) 320 EVs; 52.66% PV
Sen. Frank Church (D-ID)/Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-SC) 218 EVs; 45.77% PV

1980:

Pres. George Romney (R-MI)/VP John Anderson (R-IL) 355 EVs; 53.88% PV
Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-ID)/Fmr. Gov. Milton Shapp (D-PA) 183 EVs; 44.69% PV

1984:

Pres. George Romney (R-MI)/VP John Anderson (R-IL) 454 EVs; 56.71% PV
Sen. Gary Hart (D-CO)/Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN) 84 EVs; 42.07% PV

1988:

Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) 352 EVs; 52.97% PV
VP John Anderson (R-IL)/Gov. John Sununu (R-NH) 186 EVs; 45.77% PV

1992:

Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) 410 EVs; 56.02% PV
Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Gov. John Engler (R-MI) 128 EVs; 43.11% PV

1996:

VP Bob Graham (D-FL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) 355 EVs; 51.34% PV
Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX)/Fmr. Gov. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) 183 EVs; 47.22% PV

2000:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ) 275 EVs; 49.17% PV
Pres. Bob Graham (D-FL)/VP Joe Biden (D-DE) 128 EVs; 49.21% PV

2004:

Pres. John McCain (R-AZ)/VP Christine Todd Whitman (R-NJ) 350 EVs; 53.38% PV
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)/Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR) 188 EVs; 45.68% PV

2008:

Fmr. VP Joe Biden (D-DE)/Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-AR) 335 EVs; 53.13% PV
Sen. Jeb Bush (R-FL)/Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) 203 EVs; 46.15% PV

2012:

Pres. Joe Biden (D-DE)/VP Hillary Clinton (D-AR) 326 EVs; 52.04% PV
Fmr. Sec. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Gov. Brian Sandoval (R-NV) 212 EVs; 46.97% PV

2016:

VP Hillary Clinton (D-AR)/Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) 333 EVs; 52.81% PV
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY)/Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) 205 EVs; 43.02% PV
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #768 on: September 06, 2020, 11:21:46 PM »

United States Presidential Election, 2016:

Pres. Joe Biden (D-DE) / Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 447 EVs | 56.63% | 80,399,929 votes
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Mrs. Carly Fiorina (R-VA): 91 EVs | 39.06% | 55,454,035 votes
Others: 4.31% | 6,118,960 votes
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President Johnson
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« Reply #769 on: September 08, 2020, 01:20:42 PM »

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.

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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #770 on: September 09, 2020, 09:12:32 AM »

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.


Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #771 on: September 09, 2020, 01:28:12 PM »

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.


Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.

That's right, though you could just switch DC and Delaware.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #772 on: September 09, 2020, 01:33:09 PM »

An electoral map that has Democratic and Republican states contiguous and results in a 269-269 tie.


Washington DC breaks contiguity.

Also I am not sure I would call touching at one single point "contiguous" but that is another matter.

That's right, though you could just switch DC and Delaware.

Sorry for being a pedant, but in that case New Jersey would be non-contiguous.
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Peebs
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« Reply #773 on: September 09, 2020, 01:55:15 PM »

Wyoming.
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Canis
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« Reply #774 on: September 09, 2020, 09:24:18 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 09:31:57 PM by Canis »

Are you in favor of stricter gun laws?

Yes 50%
No 46%
Unsure 5%
https://civiqs.com/results/gun_control?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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