2020 ME Senate Megathread: How Safe is Stale Susie?

[Blair]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

I mean I never thought Ojeda would win, and it was painfully obvious that McGrath would be close- but still I'd want both to run for their seats again in 2020, rather than running for higher office after two years.

[KaiserDave]

Ojeda should challenge Justice I think, they're the antithesis of each other. Justice is a slimy stereotypical machine politician. Ojeda is a public servant, and a veteran.

But I'm not even sure Susan will or wants to run. I think she regrets not running for governor. But if she runs Lean R, if not Likely D.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You all are deluding yourselves. These people in Northern maine are not "economically left". If they were, Golden would've won by at least Obama's margin in ME-02. This seat is more likely to vote r then Texas. We need a truly inspiring candidate to beat Susan Collins, who was re-elected easily in the past. He fits the bill perfectly

[Zaybay]

You all are deluding yourselves. These people in Northern maine are not "economically left". If they were, Golden would've won by at least Obama's margin in ME-02. This seat is more likely to vote r then Texas. We need a truly inspiring candidate to beat Susan Collins, who was re-elected easily in the past. He fits the bill perfectly

Also, it should be factored in that Golden won against an incumbent, while Obama was the incumbent going into 2018. Incumbency is still potent, and is quantified to increase ones margins by an average of 4 points.

[Politician]

You all are deluding yourselves. These people in Northern maine are not "economically left". If they were, Golden would've won by at least Obama's margin in ME-02. This seat is more likely to vote r then Texas. We need a truly inspiring candidate to beat Susan Collins, who was re-elected easily in the past. He fits the bill perfectly

Also, it should be factored in that Golden won against an incumbent, while Obama was the incumbent going into 2018. Incumbency is still potent, and is quantified to increase ones margins by an average of 4 points.

But Atlas told me incumbency doesn't matter due to polarization!!!

(Except in Alabama or Colorado, duh.)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What part of Medicaid expansion only passed by six points in this district do you not understand? These people are ignorant and don't care about free college and single payer, they care about building a wall and banning muslims from the country! B/c Jared Golden doesn't stand for those racist policies, he won't stand a chance.
If we ran him for senate, we would have a good chance at beating Collins. This is going to take some effort, it's going to take someone who is a strong campaigner and has an inspiring, powerful message. Collins has won several times, so we can't just run Generic D here. Jared Golden has all the chops and I love him to death, but more importantly I want to be rid of that fiend Collins! I have no respect for her after the Kavanaugh debacle

[Zaybay]

What part of Medicaid expansion only passed by six points in this district do you not understand? These people are ignorant and don't care about free college and single payer, they care about building a wall and banning muslims from the country! B/c Jared Golden doesn't stand for those racist policies, he won't stand a chance.
If we ran him for senate, we would have a good chance at beating Collins. This is going to take some effort, it's going to take someone who is a strong campaigner and has an inspiring, powerful message. Collins has won several times, so we can't just run Generic D here. Jared Golden has all the chops and I love him to death, but more importantly I want to be rid of that fiend Collins! I have no respect for her after the Kavanaugh debacle

You dont really understand the second district, do you?

[Antonio the Sixth]

...........

what in the name of all that is good and right is this sorry abomination of a thread?

There is so much concentrated stupidity here I don't know where to even begin. Just someone please kill it with fire.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/arogDC/status/1080833796373663744

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NO. I love Jared Golden and I want him to be in the U.S. congress in some form for a long time, and it's easier for him if he runs for senate. Maineiac, I'm not insulting your state, I'm just insulting the idiot Obama-Trump-Poliquin voters in ME-02. That's why I think he should run for senate, he'd actually have a better shot there! Becuase after one of the most well-run, effort filled campaigns, he only won b/c of ranked choice voting! Against someone who wasn't even popular.
IceSpear is obnoxious and arrogant some times but he's usually right on the money! We just didn't want  to admit it until it was too late b/c we really didn't want to become a suburban party b/c we were afraid they wouldn't like our policies. Many ME-02 Obama-Trump voters are NOT ECONOMICALLY LEFT WING. And more importantly, there are republicans that are voting now that didn't vote in 2008, 2012 and before when democrats were still winning this district. Trump got higher GOP turnout then Romney and McCain. So it's not just Obama-Trump, it's some people who didn't vote for Obama OR McCain or Romney

[TheSaint250]

I think Collins will be fine because:

Maine loves incumbents. An incumbent hasn't lost a Senate race since 1978, and hasn't lost a gubernatorial race since 1966. If you provide remedial services to your constituents, you're entrenched.

She’s still got bipartisan appeal, and if any senator could survive the presidential candidate from the same party losing the state in this new era of increasing polarization, it’s her. This will undoubtedly be the toughest race of her political career since 1994, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"[X thing] hasn't happened since [X time]" until it happens again.

[Strong Candidate]

Cathleen London is in a bit of hot water:

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https://www.pressherald.com/2018/08/17/disciplined-doctor-clashed-with-patients-over-trump/

Anyway, it only makes it less likely that she actually wins the nomination.

[MAINEiac4434]

Cathleen Landon is in a bit of hot water:

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https://www.pressherald.com/2018/08/17/disciplined-doctor-clashed-with-patients-over-trump/

Anyway, it only makes it less likely that she actually wins the nomination.

She won’t be the nominee so it doesn’t really matter.

[MAINEiac4434]

I think Collins will be fine because:

Maine loves incumbents. An incumbent hasn't lost a Senate race since 1978, and hasn't lost a gubernatorial race since 1966. If you provide remedial services to your constituents, you're entrenched.

She’s still got bipartisan appeal, and if any senator could survive the presidential candidate from the same party losing the state in this new era of increasing polarization, it’s her. This will undoubtedly be the toughest race of her political career since 1994, though.

See, I’m not sure she still has bipartisan appeal. People at pissed at her behavior in regards to Kavanaugh. Even non-political people.

She’s by no means DOA but it honestly feels like something different in regards to her for the first time in a long time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is more beatable than Joni Ernst, best for Dems to target her, instead of Ernst, who seem to have joined the GOP leadership and allied herself with Capito.

[TheSaint250]

I think Collins will be fine because:

Maine loves incumbents. An incumbent hasn't lost a Senate race since 1978, and hasn't lost a gubernatorial race since 1966. If you provide remedial services to your constituents, you're entrenched.

She’s still got bipartisan appeal, and if any senator could survive the presidential candidate from the same party losing the state in this new era of increasing polarization, it’s her. This will undoubtedly be the toughest race of her political career since 1994, though.

See, I’m not sure she still has bipartisan appeal. People at pissed at her behavior in regards to Kavanaugh. Even non-political people.

She’s by no means DOA but it honestly feels like something different in regards to her for the first time in a long time.

I certainly agree that something’s different and that she will most likely have her closest Senate race yet, but I saw one Morning Consult poll that had her around 30% with Democrats in regards to job approval. Now, it remains to be seen if other polls can confirm, and that poll still had her below 50%.

I guess it really is gonna be a long road before we are more certain about where this thing will go.

[henster]

^Yeah, if this poll is anywhere near accurate, the DSCC and other groups need to get on air now and just destroy her image even more with center-left folks. Try to nudge her into retirement instead of take on a tough race.

There’s plenty to attack her on. The easiest probably being painting her as a DC bureaucrat “she has gone full-Washington—she even broke her pledge to retire after two terms. She doesn’t stand up for Maine anymore. She has lost touch.”

There’s not a shortage of other stuff like her spectacle of attention-whoring on her Kavanaugh vote and her votes for all of Trump’s appointees. Plenty of similar-seeming unbeatable titans have been dethroned for stuff like this

Yep, run someone young and not in Washington to really hone it in. She's been there for 20+ years the term limits promise thing can be pretty devastating if voters are repeatedly reminded of it.

[libertpaulian]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

[Calthrina950]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

And not only did she survive it, but she won with over 60% of the vote, running 21 percentage points ahead of John McCain. Now, I don't think she will come anywhere near her winning percentages from 2008 and 2014, but she should still win reelection by a comfortable enough margin (possibly ~53-57% or so).

[MAINEiac4434]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

Collins hadn't offended the sensibilities of suburbanite liberals then.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

And not only did she survive it, but she won with over 60% of the vote, running 21 percentage points ahead of John McCain. Now, I don't think she will come anywhere near her winning percentages from 2008 and 2014, but she should still win reelection by a comfortable enough margin (possibly ~53-57% or so).

Collins hadn't voted to put a would-be rapist on the Supreme Court in 2008.

[libertpaulian]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

And not only did she survive it, but she won with over 60% of the vote, running 21 percentage points ahead of John McCain. Now, I don't think she will come anywhere near her winning percentages from 2008 and 2014, but she should still win reelection by a comfortable enough margin (possibly ~53-57% or so).

Collins hadn't voted to put a would-be rapist on the Supreme Court in 2008.

She voted for plenty of other right-wing judges, though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

And not only did she survive it, but she won with over 60% of the vote, running 21 percentage points ahead of John McCain. Now, I don't think she will come anywhere near her winning percentages from 2008 and 2014, but she should still win reelection by a comfortable enough margin (possibly ~53-57% or so).

Collins hadn't voted to put a would-be rapist on the Supreme Court in 2008.

She voted for plenty of other right-wing judges, though.

Unless one of them was a would-be rapist facing a second credible sexual assault allegation at the time of his/her confirmation, there's really no comparison.

[lfromnj]

Collins survived the GOP slaughter of 2008.  I think she can survive anything, honestly.

And not only did she survive it, but she won with over 60% of the vote, running 21 percentage points ahead of John McCain. Now, I don't think she will come anywhere near her winning percentages from 2008 and 2014, but she should still win reelection by a comfortable enough margin (possibly ~53-57% or so).

Collins hadn't voted to put a would-be rapist on the Supreme Court in 2008.

She voted for plenty of other right-wing judges, though.

she voted for a lot of left wing judges too.