2020 ME Senate Megathread: How Safe is Stale Susie?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

#analysis

If it's unwinnable, how did he win it in 2018?

Because it was a dem wave year! The incumbent had a poor approval rating and Golden ran an amazing campaign and he won by 1 point and that was with ranked choice voting! Trump will win this district in 2020 because he's a perfect fit for the voters here, much better then Poliquin! And it's a super poor district that only voted for Medicaid expansion by 6 points! They're gone!

[lfromnj]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

#analysis

If it's unwinnable, how did he win it in 2018?

Because it was a dem wave year! The incumbent had a poor approval rating and Golden ran an amazing campaign and he won by 1 point and that was with ranked choice voting! Trump will win this district in 2020 because he's a perfect fit for the voters here, much better then Poliquin! And it's a super poor district that only voted for Medicaid expansion by 6 points! They're gone!

yeah lol Golden ran the most #populist campaign possible against a bland hedge fund manager incumbent and still only won by a point in a dem wave year. He was easily the best possible candidate here too.

[MAINEiac4434]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

lol

Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent in 100 years to lose re-election.

[Woody]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

lol

Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent in 100 years to lose re-election.

And Golden will be the second, this is one of the races that the DCCC will most likely triage.

[YE]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

lol

Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent in 100 years to lose re-election.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say Golden is doomed if he runs for re-election. But his odds aren’t exactly great. As has been said by others in this thread, he was an outstanding challenger (one of the best in the country) running against one of the weakest incumbents in the country. And he only won by 1%. In a D+8 year. After RCV.

A Senate run would be a no-brainer if I was his strategist.

You realize Golden was a former Collins staffer, right? Him running against her might be a bit awkward. Troy Jackson might be a better bet here honestly though I like both.

[MAINEiac4434]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

lol

Bruce Poliquin was the first incumbent in 100 years to lose re-election.

And Golden will be the second, this is one of the races that the DCCC will most likely triage.

Maine loves incumbents. An incumbent hasn't lost a Senate race since 1978, and hasn't lost a gubernatorial race since 1966. If you provide remedial services to your constituents, you're entrenched.

That being said, Golden should absolutely run for Senate. His ads were broadcast statewide, and the fact that he used to work for her will be a boon. And I think he's at least considering it; his name's being bandied about and he hasn't distanced himself from these rumors at all.

[MAINEiac4434]

At this point, I'm not even sure if Collins runs for re-election in the first place. She pledged two terms, which would have meant she retired in 2008. I think the GOP convinced her to run in 2008 to keep the seat, and again in 2014, because in either election there was no way the GOP was holding the seat without her. The same is true in 2020. If Collins retires, the GOP has no one to run against a multitude of Democrats.

[Peanut]

What would you say the odds are of Collins not running?

If she does, God forbid, I hope Golden runs. Put a scare in her for once.

[MAINEiac4434]

What would you say the odds are of Collins not running?

If she does, God forbid, I hope Golden runs. Put a scare in her for once.

50/50. Her moves rightward seem to be indicative of her trying to thwart a primary challenge from the LePageist wing of the party...but could also be indicative of her trying to land a lavish lobbyist job.

[GoldenMainer]

I’m aware, but people have run against their former bosses before and won: Susana Martinez when she was elected DA and Steve Cooley are the two I can think of right off the bat. If you portray it as “they’ve changed while in office for too long” I think that would effectively neuter that line of attack. But yeah, my preference is either Golden or Jackson since I think Dems need someone from ME-02 to have a chance at the Senate seat

This is the correct take. Erin Herbig is from the second district as well. She'd make a great replacement for Angus King.

[MAINEiac4434]

I’m aware, but people have run against their former bosses before and won: Susana Martinez when she was elected DA and Steve Cooley are the two I can think of right off the bat. If you portray it as “they’ve changed while in office for too long” I think that would effectively neuter that line of attack. But yeah, my preference is either Golden or Jackson since I think Dems need someone from ME-02 to have a chance at the Senate seat

This is the correct take. Erin Herbig is from the second district as well. She'd make a great replacement for Angus King.

Erin Herbig and Louis Luchini are going places, definitely.

[brucejoel99]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

The Democrats are continuing their retreat to urban and coastal areas with this move...

If you think he has better than even odds at winning re-election in a Trump+10 seat with Trump on the ballot I got news for all of you. He’s much better off going for the Senate race. Lower risk, higher reward

LOL ok.

In all seriousness, if 2020 is as much (if not more) of a referendum on Trump than 2018 was (remember, even Trump himself conceded he was all but actually on the ballot this year), then Golden's fine should he choose to run for re-election (esp. if he manages to be so lucky as to go up against Poliquin again after his sore-loser antics). Plus, RCV can only help him (though it won't be able to help the Democratic presidential nominee, as it doesn't apply to the presidential election in ME).

Not to mention, it's not like we even know yet how much of a personally popular incumbent he'll be 2 years from now.

[MAINEiac4434]

FWIW Golden literally just sent a fundraising email.

[The Arizonan]

If Susan Collins loses and the Democrat takes the Senate seat, would 2021 be the first time that New England didn't have any Republican representation in Congress?

[Badger]

JARED

He should run for re-election. That seat likes to keep incumbents and an open rural Trump +10 seat would be a tall order to hold.

He's not winning re-election to ME-02. It's gone. He might as well run for senate instead of trying to win an unwinnable seat.

The Democrats are continuing their retreat to urban and coastal areas with this move...

If you think he has better than even odds at winning re-election in a Trump+10 seat with Trump on the ballot I got news for all of you. He’s much better off going for the Senate race. Lower risk, higher reward

A +10 Trump district which Obama won twice.

I'm not saying 2016 was an across the board fluke, but anyone trying to use that as the sole benchmark for handicapping races is running a fool's errand.

I would've thought the midterms demonstrated that. E.G. ME-2 voting out their congressman for the first time in a century.

[Young Conservative]

Collins wins by a closer margin...meaning she only wins by 10-20 instead of her past 30 point victory.

[smoltchanov]

Collins wins by a closer margin...meaning she only wins by 10-20 instead of her past 30 point victory.

IF Collins is a nominee (and she, probably, placated a vocal hard-right "base" (which i sincerely hate) with her vote for Cavanaugh) - i would tend to agree. May be - not 20, but 10 - almost surely. But, if not - Democrats would have excellent chances, provided they don't run a "coastal elityst bold progressive".

[Blair]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

[smoltchanov]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

McGrath was rather close, but, yes, my first (very preliminary) rating for ME-02 would be Tilt R. At least - if Golden will have "bold progressive" record in House. Populist can win reelecion in this district, but "bold progressive" - unlikely. We will see.

[brucejoel99]

If Susan Collins loses and the Democrat takes the Senate seat, would 2021 be the first time that New England didn't have any Republican representation in Congress?

Yup, if she loses to a Democrat, then 2021 would be the first time since the GOP's founding in 1854 (when VT Senator Solomon Foot & ME Congressman Israel Washburn Jr. became Republicans at the party's founding) that New England wouldn't have any Republican representation in Congress.

In the time period since Foot became the first Republican Senator in 1854, New England has *always* had (& continues to have) at least one Republican Senator, w/ Collins currently being the last remaining New England Republican in the Senate.

In the time period since Washburn became the first Republican Congressman in 1854, New England always had at least one Republican Congressman until Chris Shays left the House in 2009 after his 2008 defeat in CT resulted in there being no Republicans representing New England in the House for the first time since the GOP's inception in 1854. New England Republicans proceeded to regain House representation in 2011 after the 2010 elections of Frank Guinta & Charlie Bass of NH, before losing it again in 2013 after the 2012 defeats of Guinta & Bass, before regaining it again in 2015 after the 2014 elections of Guinta & Bruce Poliquin of ME, & now they're finally about to lose it again in 2019 after the 2018 defeat of Poliquin, meaning there will once again be no House members in New England who are Republicans.

[MAINEiac4434]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

The difference is, Golden won.

There are two major (for Maine) universities in the district and a decent percentage of its workforce is still unionized. Not to mention a growing immigrant population in Lewiston. Mills did better in the second district than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Baldacci the first time, better than she had any right to. And Maine whites aren’t like rest-of-America whites; they are significantly more liberal on average. Maine’s the whitest state, and routinely elects liberal Democrats, and has for over 25 years now. With everything going against Hillary, with Trump making multiple appearances here, he still could not win the state in 2016.

His district is tough, to be sure, and I’d like him to run for Senate, but he has to be favored, especially with no obvious GOP candidates to run against him.

[Politician]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

The difference is, Golden won.

There are two major (for Maine) universities in the district and a decent percentage of its workforce is still unionized. Not to mention a growing immigrant population in Lewiston. Mills did better in the second district than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Baldacci the first time, better than she had any right to. And Maine whites aren’t like rest-of-America whites; they are significantly more liberal on average. Maine’s the whitest state, and routinely elects liberal Democrats, and has for over 25 years now. With everything going against Hillary, with Trump making multiple appearances here, he still could not win the state in 2016.

His district is tough, to be sure, and I’d like him to run for Senate, but he has to be favored, especially with no obvious GOP candidates to run against him.

Wait, Mills did better in ME-02 then Baldacci '06?

[brucejoel99]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

The difference is, Golden won.

There are two major (for Maine) universities in the district and a decent percentage of its workforce is still unionized. Not to mention a growing immigrant population in Lewiston. Mills did better in the second district than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Baldacci the first time, better than she had any right to. And Maine whites aren’t like rest-of-America whites; they are significantly more liberal on average. Maine’s the whitest state, and routinely elects liberal Democrats, and has for over 25 years now. With everything going against Hillary, with Trump making multiple appearances here, he still could not win the state in 2016.

His district is tough, to be sure, and I’d like him to run for Senate, but he has to be favored, especially with no obvious GOP candidates to run against him.

Well, I'd say Poliquin is an obvious GOP candidate for the seat in 2020 considering his stubborn antics this time around, but I'd also say that those antics make it unlikely that he'd win lol

[MAINEiac4434]

Only Atlas would tell a politician who’s just won a race to not run again because of a fluke election 4 years before that.

ME-02 is one of the oldest, whitest, most rural and least-educated districts in america. Take a wild guess which party does best with those in this day and age.

It seems the same people who believed up until the end that Ojeda and McGrath would win because they were great populist fits for their seats

The difference is, Golden won.

There are two major (for Maine) universities in the district and a decent percentage of its workforce is still unionized. Not to mention a growing immigrant population in Lewiston. Mills did better in the second district than any Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Baldacci the first time, better than she had any right to. And Maine whites aren’t like rest-of-America whites; they are significantly more liberal on average. Maine’s the whitest state, and routinely elects liberal Democrats, and has for over 25 years now. With everything going against Hillary, with Trump making multiple appearances here, he still could not win the state in 2016.

His district is tough, to be sure, and I’d like him to run for Senate, but he has to be favored, especially with no obvious GOP candidates to run against him.

Wait, Mills did better in ME-02 then Baldacci '06?

Yes, but Baldacci got less than 40% of the vote in 2006 despite winning. It’s not that big of an achievement lol.

[coloradocowboi]

Probably more likely than not to be reelected in a neutral environment, but not safe by any reasonable metric.

Back to the topic at hand, I think that this won't be a neutral environment. But remains to be seen how much the Dem advantage will be (magnitude and impact of the brewing recession will be key). I'd say Leans R, closer to Tossup than Likely.