Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[urutzizu]

Any link to live results?  Any links to live stream of media coverage?

In hebrew here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgWGsM6UqU8

But yeah if anyone knows an english-language stream i would be very pleased too.

[Oryxslayer]

Live results will be visible in english here in 2 hours: https://video.i24news.tv/page/live?clip=5a94117623eec6000c557fec. They are streaming now though.

You have to sign up for an account and give information, but there is a 1-month free trial, and you are only charged at the end of the period, and can cancel at any time. So if you only intend to watch stuff this week like me, no problem.

[Walmart_shopper]

Any link to live results?  Any links to live stream of media coverage?

Outside of Israel I believe Kan is available.

https://www.kan.org.il/live/tv.aspx?stationid=2

They are one of the three major TV stations, and obviously in Hebrew. They'll have an exit poll right at 2200, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

Former chair.

Anyway I saw an internal poll. Meretz below the threshold, Labour at 6, Gantz leading by 5

Kaholavan would be at like 40-45 seats with Labor at 6, no Meretz, no Raam Balaad, Hadash at 5, and the various right wing parties struggling with the threshold. A massive polling miss if it ends up that way.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone but Bibi

[Oryxslayer]

Honest question here, purely in a B&W - Likud perspective, if B&W is ahead by more then a handful of seats, how quickly do we think Bibi thrown under the bus by all those potential rivals in promising list positions?

[RedPrometheus]

Anyone but Bibi

[Walmart_shopper]

Honest question here, purely in a B&W - Likud perspective, if B&W is ahead by more then a handful of seats, how quickly do we think Bibi thrown under the bus by all those potential rivals in promising list positions?

That's the million shekel question. My sense is that we are in for a pretty wild several weeks of coalition building with no clear outcome at all. My guess is that not until Kahlon, Feiglin, and others have pretty much guaranteed that Likud has no path to power outside of joining Gantz's government will we see people begin to abandon Bibi. And that's a pretty long process before that happens. We'll see what happens in a couple hours though.

[Gass3268]

What I am hearing is this election will come down to turnout. Big if true.

[Hnv1]

Zehut supporters told us they'd win 1420 seats all along.

One digit off, I believe -- ftfy

Anyway, this seems fairly dire (from the Young Meretz chair):
https://twitter.com/EladWolf/status/1115650958791458816

Former chair.

Anyway I saw an internal poll. Meretz below the threshold, Labour at 6, Gantz leading by 5

Kaholavan would be at like 40-45 seats with Labor at 6, no Meretz, no Raam Balaad, Hadash at 5, and the various right wing parties struggling with the threshold. A massive polling miss if it ends up that way.

Could be 40 + at the end with the Bader-Ofer law. Anyway as it stand with Gantz’s margin increasing he’s going to get the first chance at forming a government

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm watching Arabic stations and they are saying Arab turnout is very low, expecting Arabs to lose at least a few seats

[Oryxslayer]

I'm watching Arabic stations and they are saying Arab turnout is very low, expecting Arabs to lose at least a few seats

One claim that seems to be true is that turnout in Arab villages is down, hurting their vote. It probably takes a miracle or pollsters previously weighting for low turnout to get Balad-Raam in. On the other hand, the Arab parties have just stated Arab turnout is 44%, so maybe things are turning around a bit.

On a different topic, Prison polls have closed with 70% turnout.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm watching Arabic stations and they are saying Arab turnout is very low, expecting Arabs to lose at least a few seats

If the Arabs come away with half of the seats they've got now they should feel very good. They need a decent turnout to keep Raam Balad over the threshold and they're not getting it.  If Hadash and Tibi get nine or ten by themselves it would be very surprising.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm watching Arabic stations and they are saying Arab turnout is very low, expecting Arabs to lose at least a few seats

On a different topic, Prison polls have closed with 70% turnout.

Sinawar is debating whether to accept Feiglin's offer of Justice, Health, and Environment ministries. He's still holding out for Defense, though.

[Donerail]

Meretz apparently petitioning the central elections committee to extend voting time past 10pm, on the ground that Likud's hidden camera stunt depressed Arab turnout

[Oryxslayer]

8pm turnout 61.3%. Down 1.4% on 2015.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meretz apparently petitioning the central elections committee to extend voting time past 10pm, on the ground that Likud's hidden camera stunt depressed Arab turnout

Please no on the grounds that I'm broken

[RedPrometheus]

Are the Exit polls in Israel generally accurate?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/tamarishshalom/status/1115682420597112832

Exit pollster hyping up their product with "expect surprises."

[Donerail]

Think Odeh won the contest for best photo-op on election day, casting his ballot with his son on his shoulders:

[Vosem]

Are the Exit polls in Israel generally accurate?

They were good in 2013. In 2015 the polling average had overestimated minor right-wing parties at the expense of Likud -- exit polls were pretty much midway between the polling average and the actual result. They're not necessarily great, but I think they're usually a stronger indicator of what's going on than the normal polls.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/tamarishshalom/status/1115682420597112832

Exit pollster hyping up their product with "expect surprises."

Probably hyping up the results

[Matty]

When is exit poll released?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

When is exit poll released?

15 mins

[Sestak]

Polls are closed.