Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

There are dozens and dozens of democratic states, but there is only one Jewish state - a state that can only remain a safe haven for Jews both in Israel and abroad if it indeed continues to be Jewish. History has taught us that we can never be sure to have a future as Jews outside a Jewish country. An undemocratic Jewish state would be utterly wrong and I absolutely want Israel to remain democratic, but it would still be safe for Jews. Should Israel cede being a Jewish state, however, the door would be opened to the persecution of Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. This is why anti-Zionist parties are more dangerous than antidemocratic ones. Which is why I think Balad and the like are actually worse than Otzma. Zionism is the only thing that stands between us and another Holocaust - and I don't use the latter phrase lightly.

But this seems quite enough on this subject for now...

Ask Israel's large non-Jewiah majority how glorious the "safe haven for Jews is" especially if led by supporters of Kahanist parties, like Bibi. Or ask the large secular Jewish majority how much they appreciate Jewish theocracy. I think the point is a non-democraticKahanist government basically stops being "a save haven" for anyone, Jewish or not.

[DavidB.]

Netanyahu is not a "supporter of Kahanist parties", he just wants a majority and realizes he may need one or two Otzma MKs to get to 61 MKs. You are a troll and your "contributions" are beyond worthless, so I'm putting you on ignore.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So the Likud campaign, just like 2015, will be "A government without Netanyahu will be controlled by the Arab extremists" and the Left campaign will be "A government with Netanyahu will be controlled by Kahanist extremists"   

What is Blue and White take on all this?  Are they not for some sort of grand coalition with Likud ? What is their position on "Netanyahu letting in Kahanist" ?

[DavidB.]

Ok.  So the Likud campaign, just like 2015, will be "A government without Netanyahu will be controlled by the Arab extremists" and the Left campaign will be "A government with Netanyahu will be controlled by Kahanist extremists"  

What is Blue and White take on all this?  Are they not for some sort of grand coalition with Likud ? What is their position on "Netanyahu letting in Kahanist" ?

Blue and White have disavowed a coalition with (or depending on) the Arab parties and want a grand coalition with Likud that is "nationalist and Zionist" without depending on either Netanyahu ("corrupt") or "wingnuts". They also opposed Netanyahu's insistence on a Jewish Home-Otzma alliance.

So they aim to be viewed as the reasonable, patriotic, "common-sense" choice for those who want Netanyahu out and don't want the next coalition to depend on the extremes on either side.

[jaichind]

Different impossible trinities where you can have only at most 2 out of the 3

International economics: fixed foreign exchange rate, free capital movement, independent monetary policy

healthcare: Access, Cost, Quality

Distributed data store: Consistency, Availability, Partition tolerance

Israel: Jewish, Democratic, Open borders

[America Needs R'hllor]

The funniest thing about this election is that Gantz's list looks more like Labor as it used to be than Gabbay-led Labor does. Ehud Barak II: Electric Boogaloo.

If that means a list full of old ashkenazi oldguard guys, I guess. But Gantz's list is pretty center-right overall, despite some leftist elements like Michael Biton and Yael German. Labour's list is staunchly the pragmatic center-left that Labour always represented- it's not the unyielding left to far-left that Meretz represents and it's not a radical centrist, catch-all party like Yesh Atid.

Ok.  So the Likud campaign, just like 2015, will be "A government without Netanyahu will be controlled by the Arab extremists" and the Left campaign will be "A government with Netanyahu will be controlled by Kahanist extremists"  

What is Blue and White take on all this?  Are they not for some sort of grand coalition with Likud ? What is their position on "Netanyahu letting in Kahanist" ?

I imagine Blue and White, remembering how effective the xenophobic attacks were in 2015, will attempt to distance themselves from the Arabs and instead give Likud a rib-crusing "bearhug", constantly saying that Netanyahu, who will go to jail for corruption, will leave and they'll lead a national unity government with "nice Zionist Likud". I'm not sure it's going to be effective, but if they do this it's at least smarter than the "not Bibi!!!" strategy employed by the center-left before. Likud will definitely try to escape this bearhug.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is not a "supporter of Kahanist parties", he just wants a majority and realizes he may need one or two Otzma MKs to get to 61 MKs. You are a troll and your "contributions" are beyond worthless, so I'm putting you on ignore.

Spare me, David. Your support for a Kahanist government is far more vulgar and despicable than anything I could ever write. 

Bibi literally took the initiative himself to midwife the Kahanists into a place where they could join his government. That's precisely what support looks like.

[Famous Mortimer]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

[danny]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

no, they were in the opposition during that time.

[Walmart_shopper]

Wasn't the National Union in government when Ben-Ari was an MK before?

No, when the Bayit Yehudi split from the national union in 2009 it left Ben Ari out of government. The National Union was in government in the early 2000s with Sharon but Ben Ari wasn't a part of it.

Notably, today Naftali Bennet emphasized that he doesn't believe that the Kahanists should be in governmen. Who even knows what that means, though.

[Boobs]

You are a troll and your "contributions" are beyond worthless, so I'm putting you on ignore.

[Vosem]

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

Not really, given that I don't think a challenge to Ben-Ari's candidacy was presented at that time; the man himself and his party were much more obscure.

Also, I mean, Kahane himself was banned from standing when he was literally an incumbent MK.

[Hnv1]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

[America Needs R'hllor]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

Christ, I didn't even know that. It's honestly a battle against evil at this point, a narrow right-wing government controlled by religious extremists and supporting Kahanists increasingly enthusiastically will be a disaster for Israelis and must be prevented.

[Hnv1]

Indictment decision in the coming days. That will shake everything

[Oryxslayer]

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

I think national unity is a lot more plausible than getting the Arab parties on board and then getting to 61 seats. So it's probably not a ruse.

[Walmart_shopper]

Indictment decision in the coming days. That will shake everything

The polling I've seen shifts a few seats away from Likud. But the big question is whether it will shift a few seats away from the Kahanist coalition.

If Mandelblit only indicts on 1000 and 4000, but not on 2000 (the Noni Mozes bribery charge), does that make any political difference than if were to indict in all three?

[DavidB.]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

Not sure how many people are on that committee, but this doesn't seem bad to me - it's well and truly time for a change here, and the left-wing response shows how they think they are still entitled to "own" the courtrooms with their judges when they can't even win an election. Wouldn't Ben-Gvir be the more effective one here, though, given his legal background?

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

This would be possible, I suppose, but the door to cooperation with the Arab parties does seem to be more firmly closed (though never say never, particularly in Israel...) and it seems rather unrealistic that Blue and White get to 61 with only Labour, Meretz and centrists. Though this, too, is possible if Likud voters leave in droves after a Netanyahu indictment. But I wouldn't count on any of these things.

[America Needs R'hllor]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

Not sure how many people are on that committee, but this doesn't seem bad to me - it's well and truly time for a change here, and the left-wing response shows how they think they are still entitled to "own" the courtrooms with their judges when they can't even win an election. Wouldn't Ben-Gvir be the more effective one here, though, given his legal background?

"Doesn't seem that bad"- sure, the guy who threatened Rabin's life and has a mass murderer's picture in his home is totally fine to pick our judges. Let's just appoint Goldstein's corpse to pick our judges. Maybe one of these terrorists who burned an Arab family? All to own the libs.

In any case, the absolute delusion of people who think some leftist conspiracy still controls eveyrthing is amazing. Did you know that the government did this trick last time around too and chose a Yisrael Beiteinu member for this committee as the opposition representative, an effective step to deny the (actual) opposition representation? I mean, yeah, it's a legitimate trick- but you don't need terror supporters who want to implement the nuremberg laws in Israel in there to stop some leftist conspiracy, the right-wing government is doing it just fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

Bibi is flying home from Moscow early tomorrow because apparently tomorrow evening he will be indicted on charges in all three investigations against him, although in Case 2000 it will be for breach of trust rather than the more serious bribery (Case 4000 will be for bribery).

It's highly unlikely that he'll step down. Hopefully voters will help him with that.

I wonder if they'll get around to indicting Aryeh Deri (again), as expected, before April 9th. The moral degradation of the right wing in Israel is pretty shocking even by Middle East standards, which tends to excuse a lot.

[Hnv1]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

Not sure how many people are on that committee, but this doesn't seem bad to me - it's well and truly time for a change here, and the left-wing response shows how they think they are still entitled to "own" the courtrooms with their judges when they can't even win an election. Wouldn't Ben-Gvir be the more effective one here, though, given his legal background?

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

This would be possible, I suppose, but the door to cooperation with the Arab parties does seem to be more firmly closed (though never say never, particularly in Israel...) and it seems rather unrealistic that Blue and White get to 61 with only Labour, Meretz and centrists. Though this, too, is possible if Likud voters leave in droves after a Netanyahu indictment. But I wouldn't count on any of these things.

David, all the politicians in the committee the past for years were from the right. It's not a matter of left\right it the fact that this are deplorable people who are quasi member in terrorist organizations.

Now I assume you never really spent time in Israeli courts, but the majority in magistrate and district  courts is right wing and they're at least half of the supreme court.

Right wing arguments against the judicial system that aren't based on facts should be known from now on as the Straw Boogeyman

[America Needs R'hllor]

No one is getting disqualified, it’s a political stunt.

Alarmingly the JH-NU agreement with Otzma states they will help pick Ben Ari as the opposition representative in the judicial appointment committee. That will be appalling for so many reasons

Not sure how many people are on that committee, but this doesn't seem bad to me - it's well and truly time for a change here, and the left-wing response shows how they think they are still entitled to "own" the courtrooms with their judges when they can't even win an election. Wouldn't Ben-Gvir be the more effective one here, though, given his legal background?

Another thing to remember is that that B&W could be lying about the Grand Coalition. Their entire proposal this election will be that they are the sensible ones - not supporting Arabs, not supporting Jewist Authoritarians, and not running an indicted candidate. Giving Likud a bear hug coalition-wise say "we're just Likud, but less questionable" to the Likud voters they need to win. Then if the option is available, after obtaining the Likud votes at the polls, they go seak Meretz/Labor support rather than Likud.

This would be possible, I suppose, but the door to cooperation with the Arab parties does seem to be more firmly closed (though never say never, particularly in Israel...) and it seems rather unrealistic that Blue and White get to 61 with only Labour, Meretz and centrists. Though this, too, is possible if Likud voters leave in droves after a Netanyahu indictment. But I wouldn't count on any of these things.

David, all the politicians in the committee the past for years were from the right. It's not a matter of left\right it the fact that this are deplorable people who are quasi member in terrorist organizations.

Now I assume you never really spent time in Israeli courts, but the majority in magistrate and district  courts is right wing and they're at least half of the supreme court.

Right wing arguments against the judicial system that aren't based on facts should be known from now on as the Straw Boogeyman

The government just like using the courts, it's comfortable. To avoid taking responsibility they just pass laws they know aren't constitutional and let the SC strike them down, and then blame the judges for everything.

[jaichind]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

[danny]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

It's a combination of the reasons you listed causing the disparity. Most Arabs in Jerusalem are not citizens and can't vote, turnout is lower amongst Arabs, most Druze vote for various Zionist parties. Also while the vast majority of (non-Druze) Arabs voted for the Joint List last elections, more of them voted for Zionist parties than Jews voting for the Joint List.