Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

Did they? All I saw was a condemnation of Otzma without mentioning Bibi.

Exactly. The JPost had an article pointing this out.

Yeah my original post wasn't that clear - they denounced Otzma trying to enter the Knesset, and said Bibi shouldn't help them. They didn't denounce him or his policies. they just said the equivalent of 'we don't negotiate with terrorists.'

[Walmart_shopper]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

In this scenario it's new elections or PM Gantz leading a national unity government. Bibi is sitting at 60 or 61 seats right now, which simply won't get him a coalition. And there are literally no other partners conceivably available to him. I'm not saying that Gantz has an easy path, but if he finishes 6 or 7 sears ahead of Likud he'll either be able to bring Likud on board or else simply see new elections. The point is that finishing several seats behind Gantz and only getting 61 mandates virtually ensures that Bibi will not be PM from these elections. A lot can change. And maybe he'll do better with new elections. But right now I don't see how he actually hangs on.

[Walmart_shopper]

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

It's not. But I think a small overperformance by Gantz could probably shift the analysis a bit for them, too. In any case they aren't going to back Arab parties in government, so unless Gantz really overperforms I don't see it happening.

It's tough because national unity, which Kulanu would almost certainly push for, without the Haredim, the right and without Meretz, is probably the only way to avoid an electoral stalemate that gives us new elections.

[Hnv1]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

In this scenario it's new elections or PM Gantz leading a national unity government. Bibi is sitting at 60 or 61 seats right now, which simply won't get him a coalition. And there are literally no other partners conceivably available to him. I'm not saying that Gantz has an easy path, but if he finishes 6 or 7 sears ahead of Likud he'll either be able to bring Likud on board or else simply see new elections. The point is that finishing several seats behind Gantz and only getting 61 mandates virtually ensures that Bibi will not be PM from these elections. A lot can change. And maybe he'll do better with new elections. But right now I don't see how he actually hangs on.

If Ganz gets 3+ more seats than Likud it would be almost illegitimate to allow Likud to form a government and there would be a lot of pressure of Kulanu to accept the popular will

[Walmart_shopper]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

In this scenario it's new elections or PM Gantz leading a national unity government. Bibi is sitting at 60 or 61 seats right now, which simply won't get him a coalition. And there are literally no other partners conceivably available to him. I'm not saying that Gantz has an easy path, but if he finishes 6 or 7 sears ahead of Likud he'll either be able to bring Likud on board or else simply see new elections. The point is that finishing several seats behind Gantz and only getting 61 mandates virtually ensures that Bibi will not be PM from these elections. A lot can change. And maybe he'll do better with new elections. But right now I don't see how he actually hangs on.

If Ganz gets 3+ more seats than Likud it would be almost illegitimate to allow Likud to form a government and there would be a lot of pressure of Kulanu to accept the popular will

And it also doesn't help Bibi that the man who decides who gets to form the government, Rubi Rivlin, is literally Bibi's political rival who would like nothing more than to find some reason to let Gantz be PM.

[DavidB.]

Gantz, Lapid aim at a grand coalition with Likud, not at a coalition with the left and the Arab parties. Sounds good to me.

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UTJ exclude the possibility of sitting with Gantz because of Lapid.

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

It's not. But I think a small overperformance by Gantz could probably shift the analysis a bit for them, too. In any case they aren't going to back Arab parties in government, so unless Gantz really overperforms I don't see it happening.

It's not certain but Kulanu have explicitly stated that they will support Bibi.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gantz, Lapid aim at a grand coalition with Likud, not at a coalition with the left and the Arab parties. Sounds good to me.

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UTJ exclude the possibility of sitting with Gantz because of Lapid.

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

It's not. But I think a small overperformance by Gantz could probably shift the analysis a bit for them, too. In any case they aren't going to back Arab parties in government, so unless Gantz really overperforms I don't see it happening.

It's not certain but Kulanu have explicitly stated that they will support Bibi.

Called national unity government before the Israelis on the board.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

[DavidB.]

I realize that these blocs don't make a whole lot of sense anymore after Gantz/Lapid's announcement (and it's questionable if they ever did), but for the big picture in terms of voter movement and on whether Netanyahu has an outright right-wing majority, I think it's still good to display the polls this way. But I'll use "parties" instead of "bloc".

Maagar Mochot for Israel Hayom:

Right-religious parties 62 seats
Likud 31
New Right 9
URWP 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7

Center-left-coalitionable Arab parties 58 seats
Blue and White 36
Labour 8
Meretz 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7

Ra'am-Balad, Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Gesher, Zehut and others 0

[America Needs R'hllor]

I realize that these blocs don't make a whole lot of sense anymore after Gantz/Lapid's announcement (and it's questionable if they ever did), but for the big picture in terms of voter movement and on whether Netanyahu has an outright right-wing majority, I think it's still good to display the polls this way. But I'll use "parties" instead of "bloc".

Maagar Mochot for Israel Hayom:

Right-religious parties 62 seats
Likud 31
New Right 9
URWP 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7

Center-left-coalitionable Arab parties 58 seats
Blue and White 36
Labour 8
Meretz 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7

Ra'am-Balad, Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Gesher, Zehut and others 0

I'm taking Yisrael Hayom poll with a grain of salt after they had Zehut passing a few times, but this one is interesting. Meretz at 7, Labour holding on in the high single digits, Kulanu AND Yisrael Beiteinu not passing and the Likud right-wing coalition becoming very, very religious and extreme. Also the Arabs losing almost half their strength, which seems weird because if Balad-Ra'am don't pass (I assume they have 3 seats here and Hadash-Ta'al are at 7, it amounts to just 10 while the Arabic power is usually 12-13 in the polls. Were Arabs in this particular poll more inclined to support Meretz (as well they should with two of Meretz's top 5 being Arabs) than usual? So yeah, a grain of salt but interesting.

Also re: national unity government- I obviously prefer it to the religious theocracy of Likud-New Right-URWP-Shas-UTJ, but it goes to show why I find it so important to strengthen Labour even if I much prefer Gantz to Bibi.

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

Gantz, but that's because I don't want to go to jail. Electorally speaking, Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

I'd rather be Gantz because I don't have a massive indictment hanging over my head while trying to thread the needle on an electoral coalition that will include Kahanists and still only get me a 2 seat majority.

Even if Bibi does cobble together 62 seats it will be with one of the most unmanageable and unpopular governments in the country's history, teeing up the left for a win in just a year when new elections are called when he is sent to prison.

Honestly, if Bibi stepped down today and Gideon Saar took over party leadership you'd have a totally different political analysis, and a totally healthier politics for the right and for the country. Bibi is simply trying to find a way to stay out of prison and that explains why he's teaming up with theocrats and fascists to prop him up. Most Israelis are disgusted by him, it's just that half the country is also terrified of what the left will do if given power.

[Walmart_shopper]

I realize that these blocs don't make a whole lot of sense anymore after Gantz/Lapid's announcement (and it's questionable if they ever did), but for the big picture in terms of voter movement and on whether Netanyahu has an outright right-wing majority, I think it's still good to display the polls this way. But I'll use "parties" instead of "bloc".

Maagar Mochot for Israel Hayom:

Right-religious parties 62 seats
Likud 31
New Right 9
URWP 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7

Center-left-coalitionable Arab parties 58 seats
Blue and White 36
Labour 8
Meretz 7
Hadash-Ta'al 7

Ra'am-Balad, Yisrael Beiteinu, Kulanu, Gesher, Zehut and others 0

I'm taking Yisrael Hayom poll with a grain of salt after they had Zehut passing a few times, but this one is interesting. Meretz at 7, Labour holding on in the high single digits, Kulanu AND Yisrael Beiteinu not passing and the Likud right-wing coalition becoming very, very religious and extreme. Also the Arabs losing almost half their strength, which seems weird because if Balad-Ra'am don't pass (I assume they have 3 seats here and Hadash-Ta'al are at 7, it amounts to just 10 while the Arabic power is usually 12-13 in the polls. Were Arabs in this particular poll more inclined to support Meretz (as well they should with two of Meretz's top 5 being Arabs) than usual? So yeah, a grain of salt but interesting.

Also re: national unity government- I obviously prefer it to the religious theocracy of Likud-New Right-URWP-Shas-UTJ, but it goes to show why I find it so important to strengthen Labour even if I much prefer Gantz to Bibi.

as of right now, would you rather be Bibi or Gantz?

Gantz, but that's because I don't want to go to jail. Electorally speaking, Bibi.

I'm also on the left, but I would prefer national unity to a leftist coalition. A broad secular-centrist government would be able to effect so many important changes that huge majorities of Israelis want. In separating religion and state and building the economy with a social conscience you touch on some of the most popular values among voters. And any major peace initiatives should have broad support anyway.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ashkenazi is probably left of Lapid since he was always floated as a Labor Party candidate. Actually, probably just better to say that Ashkenazi is thought to be center-left, and not compare him to Lapid, who has no real ideology.

[Oryxslayer]

Well TBH, the preconditions for forming a Grand-Coalition government are far easier to obtain then one that relies of support from Arab parties outside the government. All that is needed is:

- The 'All-Right' Government to get 60 seats or less, a precondition for any B&W government
- A healthy gap between B&W and Likud - say 7 seats or greater
- Likud to drop Bibi as part of negotiations

[DavidB.]

Well TBH, the preconditions for forming a Grand-Coalition government are far easier to obtain then one that relies of support from Arab parties outside the government. All that is needed is:

- The 'All-Right' Government to get 60 seats or less, a precondition for any B&W government
- A healthy gap between B&W and Likud - say 7 seats or greater
- Likud to drop Bibi as part of negotiations

Still doesn't happen if the right bloc parties have a majority (without Kulanu) and continue to insist on forming a government with Bibi as PM.

[Walmart_shopper]

Well TBH, the preconditions for forming a Grand-Coalition government are far easier to obtain then one that relies of support from Arab parties outside the government. All that is needed is:

- The 'All-Right' Government to get 60 seats or less, a precondition for any B&W government
- A healthy gap between B&W and Likud - say 7 seats or greater
- Likud to drop Bibi as part of negotiations

Still doesn't happen if the right bloc parties have a majority (without Kulanu) and continue to insist on forming a government with Bibi as PM.

Probably true. But getting to 63 (which is what you need for a legitimate, working majority) without Kahlon seems pretty difficult at this point. I suspect the election at this point is who exactly leads the national unity government, not whether we get one.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

It is. They can’t support him or they’ll be fine with their electorate and one of them would like to succeed Bibi which won’t happen if they crown Gantz

There's also a huge rift between them and Gantz- they're staunchly right-wing and would never crown someone whose party is, in the end, associated with the center-left.

The Likud says that there is some chatter between Gantz and the New Right. That may just be a planted story for the Likud to squeeze some more seats out of the New Right. But it is also possible that Bennet could push Gantz towards a center-right national unity government. It's hard to imagine a situation in which Gantz willingly lets the New Right call the shots in coalition agreements unless the left is also a part of the fun. Gantz's voters are firmly center-left and selling the farm to Naftali Bennet would be the dumbest political move in the history of politics ever.

[DavidB.]

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm also on the left, but I would prefer national unity to a leftist coalition. A broad secular-centrist government would be able to effect so many important changes that huge majorities of Israelis want. In separating religion and state and building the economy with a social conscience you touch on some of the most popular values among voters. And any major peace initiatives should have broad support anyway.

Yeah, I'd also prefer a Gantz-lead national unity government to a narrow minority government supported by Balad and Ra'am from outside, and to a right-wing Likud-lead government. My ideal situation, of course, would be a pragmatic center-left government lead by Labour, Meretz and some centrist parties but it's a pipe dream by now. What I meant was that if we're talking about a national unity government, I want Labour to be as big as possible there to ensure that this government looks out for people like me and doesn't sell out.

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

It wouldn't prove anything except that now new facts about this man are known now or that a different judge heard this case in a different context. Saying that Israel's institutions moved left is absolutely ridiculous and borders on scapegoating at this point, the right is controlling this country with increasingly extreme governments for more than a decade now. By the way, Labour as a party didn't send this petition- it was MK Stav Shafir. Meretz as a party did.

Meretz, meanwhile, said that their representatives would refuse to be interviewed in the media alongside Otzma members. Good step imo and something I'd like to see my party doing as well, especially after Yaya Fink's interview a while back when he had to put up with Itamar Ben Gvir. When Fink attacked Ben Gvir for defending the picture of Baruch Goldstein in his home ("I have his picture because he's a doctor who treated Jews, not because he killed Arabs"), Yoav Kish (Likud) attacked *Fink* by asking "you disqualify them? Shame on you, they're Zionists, what about Tibi?" and made it clear to me that the entire right- Likud, JH and NU are all tarnished by the Kahanist stain and are all part of legitimizing these evil, racist, heinous men.

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm also on the left, but I would prefer national unity to a leftist coalition. A broad secular-centrist government would be able to effect so many important changes that huge majorities of Israelis want. In separating religion and state and building the economy with a social conscience you touch on some of the most popular values among voters. And any major peace initiatives should have broad support anyway.

Yeah, I'd also prefer a Gantz-lead national unity government to a narrow minority government supported by Balad and Ra'am from outside, and to a right-wing Likud-lead government. My ideal situation, of course, would be a pragmatic center-left government lead by Labour, Meretz and some centrist parties but it's a pipe dream by now. What I meant was that if we're talking about a national unity government, I want Labour to be as big as possible there to ensure that this government looks out for people like me and doesn't sell out.

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

It wouldn't prove anything except that now new facts about this man are known now or that a different judge heard this case in a different context. Saying that Israel's institutions moved left is absolutely ridiculous and borders on scapegoating at this point, the right is controlling this country with increasingly extreme governments for more than a decade now. By the way, Labour as a party didn't send this petition- it was MK Stav Shafir. Meretz as a party did.

Meretz, meanwhile, said that their representatives would refuse to be interviewed in the media alongside Otzma members. Good step imo and something I'd like to see my party doing as well, especially after Yaya Fink's interview a while back when he had to put up with Itamar Ben Gvir. When Fink attacked Ben Gvir for defending the picture of Baruch Goldstein in his home ("I have his picture because he's a doctor who treated Jews, not because he killed Arabs"), Yoav Kish (Likud) attacked *Fink* by asking "you disqualify them? Shame on you, they're Zionists, what about Tibi?" and made it clear to me that the entire right- Likud, JH and NU are all tarnished by the Kahanist stain and are all part of legitimizing these evil, racist, heinous men.

The right wing has spent four solid years packing the courts, including the Supreme Court, with sympathetic jurists. If the courts have moved left it is an attempt to balance out the grotesque lurch to the right by the political system, not unlike John Roberts' new centrism in the US Supreme Court.

[DavidB.]

It wouldn't prove anything except that now new facts about this man are known now or that a different judge heard this case in a different context. Saying that Israel's institutions moved left is absolutely ridiculous and borders on scapegoating at this point, the right is controlling this country with increasingly extreme governments for more than a decade now. By the way, Labour as a party didn't send this petition- it was MK Stav Shafir. Meretz as a party did.

Meretz, meanwhile, said that their representatives would refuse to be interviewed in the media alongside Otzma members. Good step imo and something I'd like to see my party doing as well, especially after Yaya Fink's interview a while back when he had to put up with Itamar Ben Gvir. When Fink attacked Ben Gvir for defending the picture of Baruch Goldstein in his home ("I have his picture because he's a doctor who treated Jews, not because he killed Arabs"), Yoav Kish (Likud) attacked *Fink* by asking "you disqualify them? Shame on you, they're Zionists, what about Tibi?" and made it clear to me that the entire right- Likud, JH and NU are all tarnished by the Kahanist stain and are all part of legitimizing these evil, racist, heinous men.

The fact that Meretz and Shafir don't have as much of a problem with Ta'al, Hadash and even Balad tells me everything I need to know. As if one or two Otzma MKs are as bad or worse than all these anti-Zionist Joint List MKs that have been serving in parliament for years. At this point the Otzma scare has just become irrational hystery, a manufactured frenzy perpetuating itself because of groupthink. Kish is right and I cannot wait for the moment when the right-religious bloc will have the demographics to shut out Meretz and Labour from parliament. Two or three decades should be enough - if the left hasn't taken down the country with it by then.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It wouldn't prove anything except that now new facts about this man are known now or that a different judge heard this case in a different context. Saying that Israel's institutions moved left is absolutely ridiculous and borders on scapegoating at this point, the right is controlling this country with increasingly extreme governments for more than a decade now. By the way, Labour as a party didn't send this petition- it was MK Stav Shafir. Meretz as a party did.

Meretz, meanwhile, said that their representatives would refuse to be interviewed in the media alongside Otzma members. Good step imo and something I'd like to see my party doing as well, especially after Yaya Fink's interview a while back when he had to put up with Itamar Ben Gvir. When Fink attacked Ben Gvir for defending the picture of Baruch Goldstein in his home ("I have his picture because he's a doctor who treated Jews, not because he killed Arabs"), Yoav Kish (Likud) attacked *Fink* by asking "you disqualify them? Shame on you, they're Zionists, what about Tibi?" and made it clear to me that the entire right- Likud, JH and NU are all tarnished by the Kahanist stain and are all part of legitimizing these evil, racist, heinous men.

The fact that Meretz and Shafir don't have as much of a problem with Ta'al, Hadash and even Balad tells me everything I need to know. As if one or two Otzma MKs are as bad or worse than all these anti-Zionist Joint List MKs that have been serving in parliament for years. At this point the Otzma scare has just become irrational hystery, a manufactured frenzy perpetuating itself because of groupthink. Kish is right and I cannot wait for the moment when the right-religious bloc will have the demographics to shut out Meretz and Labour from parliament. Two or three decades should be enough - if the left hasn't taken down the country with it by then.

Hadash and Ta'al deny Israel as Jewish and Otzma deny it as democratic. Hadash and Ta'al aren't nearly as racist, hateful, terror-supporting, homopbhobic and theocratic as Otzma. In every single parameter, Otzma is worse than them. The attempt to delegitimize any representation for Arabs is, obviously, not going to work- meanwhile, delegitimizing representation for crazy extremists who support murderers and harrass innocent citizens is great.

By the way, if the right-religious bloc does reach the necessary demographic (which I'm very doubtful of) to make Israel a country with no left and no power to the secular public, Israel will become a third-world theocratic hellhole. Make no mistake- it's the secular public that brings Israel its economic prosperity and it's this public that will leave once living here will no longer become feasible. For me, these people who hate me and don't consider me an equal human being aren't allies, and a Jewish country has no point without democracy and secularity, and I'm definitely not alone. It's like the time Miki Zohar (Likud) attacked Tel Aviv and its values- that's all well and good and easy to do, but if you take Tel Aviv out, Israel becomes a third world country. That's just how it is.

[Hnv1]

Labour, Meretz are petitioning the Election Commission led by High Court Justice Melcer to ban Otzma from taking part in the election. The reason would be that Michael Ben-Ari, who is at #5 on the URWP list, was a co-founder of Rabbi Meir Kahane's Jewish Idea yeshiva. If this happens, which I doubt, it would prove that the country's institutions moved to the left, given that Ben-Ari was in the Knesset from 2009-13 already.

No one is going to get banned, and it's not going to change. Though I would state that there is a difference between denying the Jewish element than denying the democratic element. If there would be a majority that doesn't want a Jewish state there's no point at keeping it Jewish against popular wishes, and a party saying that it would prefer a neutral state are merely saying what they would espouse as a majority, there's no call for violence.

Denying the democratic element is in part a denial of a majority rule in itself. It entails violence as it says regardless of what the majority want theses are the policies we will advocate even needed than by force (as the democratic majority is insignificant as is).

so all though I'm against disqualifying either, again the analogy between the extreme right and the far left is unsound.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funniest thing about this election is that Gantz's list looks more like Labor as it used to be than Gabbay-led Labor does. Ehud Barak II: Electric Boogaloo.

[DavidB.]

There are dozens and dozens of democratic states, but there is only one Jewish state - a state that can only remain a safe haven for Jews both in Israel and abroad if it indeed continues to be Jewish. History has taught us that we can never be sure to have a future as Jews outside a Jewish country. An undemocratic Jewish state would be utterly wrong and I absolutely want Israel to remain democratic, but it would still be safe for Jews. Should Israel cede being a Jewish state, however, the door would be opened to the persecution of Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. This is why anti-Zionist parties are more dangerous than antidemocratic ones. Which is why I think Balad and the like are actually worse than Otzma. Zionism is the only thing that stands between us and another Holocaust - and I don't use the latter phrase lightly.

But this seems quite enough on this subject for now...