Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Vosem]

I wanted to note that if the 1988 Elections Act were actually enforced Otzma would probably be banned in the first place, though upon considering it I realized that several of the Arab parties would be banned as well (Balad and Ra'am would probably have gone down during the 2003 legal challenge), which could've fairly radically remade Israeli democracy; a state where Arabs still voted for the left is one where the left could still win.

How desirable the 1988 Elections Act (which banned parties that denied Israel's "Jewish and democratic" character -- intending to target Kach, an antecedent of Otzma, which was indeed banned, and the Progressive List for Peace, the banning of which was overturned by the Israeli Supreme Court) was is arguable: many countries ban anti-system parties, but Israel has a fairly high percentage of the population adhering to anti-system views, so it could be said that it is undemocratic not to allow them to have some representation. (It may also be that the banning of Arab anti-system parties is difficult to maintain while having good foreign relations with certain states, and of course allowing these parties is advantageous for the right-wing Jewish parties.) An interesting point to consider.

[DC Al Fine]

Why couldn't the Arabs launch new parties if their parties were banned? Canada elected a communist under the "Labour-Progressive" ticket while the Communist Party was banned for example.

[danny]

Gabbai found some general to put at number 2, Tal Russo.

[The Mikado]

Why couldn't the Arabs launch new parties if their parties were banned? Canada elected a communist under the "Labour-Progressive" ticket while the Communist Party was banned for example.

Specifically in Israel, if they still wanted an anti-system Trojan Horse they could still vote for Hadash, right?

[Vosem]

Why couldn't the Arabs launch new parties if their parties were banned? Canada elected a communist under the "Labour-Progressive" ticket while the Communist Party was banned for example.

The 1988 Elections Act banned all parties that didn't recognize Israel as "Jewish and democratic" -- thus it was targeted at Kach (the ancestor of Otzma), which denied Israel's democratic nature, and the Progressive List for Peace, which denied Israel's Jewish nature. The Supreme Court overturned the ban on the latter, and since then no parties have been banned (apart from a nearly-immediate refoundation of Kach called Kahane Chai. In 2003, a challenge was brought to Balad and Ra'am running on the basis of their pretty clear positions not recognizing Israel's Jewish nature, but ultimately the Supreme Court ruled that they were in fact allowed to run. (A prior version of Otzma, called Eretz Israel Shelanu, became part of the National Union alliance in 2009 and in fact held a seat in the 2009-2013 Knesset).

You would just keep banning party refoundations, in this instance.

Also, the list of 30 initial candidates of Hosen has been published by Gantz, though he is apparently still negotiating a merger with Orly Levy's Gesher party, and so the final list may differ in some respects. Nearly everyone on the current list would be a newcomer to the Knesset, except for Moshe Ya'alon (#2, former Likud MK and Defense Minister) and Moshe Matalon (at #23, and a former Yisrael Beiteinu MK). Several of the top ten are explicit dissidents from Likud, including Bibi staffers, though at #3 he has Avi Nissenkorn (former head of the Histadrut, or general labor organization) and at #6 Yeruham Mayor Michael Biton, both of whom have been associated with the left in the past.

[Former President tack50]

Why couldn't the Arabs launch new parties if their parties were banned? Canada elected a communist under the "Labour-Progressive" ticket while the Communist Party was banned for example.

Not sure how comparable it is, but here when Batasuna (the party of terrorist group ETA) was banned; they usually created "sock parties" to contest elections.

Sometimes those socks were caught in time (the 2009 Basque election was particularly notorious as it directly affected the result); sometimes they weren't (like in the 2005 election which they contested as Communist Party of the Basque Homelands)

[danny]

Otzma and JH-NU reach a deal Otzma will get places 5 and 8.

[Hnv1]

Otzma and JH-NU reach a deal Otzma will get places 5 and 8.

Technical bloc - meaning they will split after the election.

Bibi soliciting the entrance of the Khana mob into the knesset is a new low

[DavidB.]

Otzma and JH-NU reach a deal Otzma will get places 5 and 8.

Yeah, you were right after all.

Wonder what's next. Still skeptical on Gantz and Lapid, but the Haredim may pull it off.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Otzma and JH-NU reach a deal Otzma will get places 5 and 8.

Yeah, you were right after all.

Wonder what's next. Still skeptical on Gantz and Lapid, but the Haredim may pull it off.

The Haredi union probably won't happen- Deri made it clear he's not in favour. Gantz is sounding increasingly in favour of a union with Yesh Atid, and is reportedly not even disqualifying a rotation with Lapid. I think it's very likely he'll unite with either Lapid or Levi today, and possibly even both (if they get around a legal issue with that).

Meanwhile, Netanyahu will meet with Peretz and Yogev to push them to finalize the deal with the violent racist mob.

Since Kach and Kahane Chai are considered terrorist groups in the U.S. and Otzma are explicitly heirs of these movements, I'd support an official condemnation of Netanyahu by the American government for supporting terorrist groups.

[DavidB.]

Since Kach and Kahane Chai are considered terrorist groups in the U.S. and Otzma are explicitly heirs of these movements, I'd support an official condemnation of Netanyahu by the American government for supporting terorrist groups.

Netanyahu might be playing 8D underwater pogostick jumping here. If Otzma get in, it will be easier to enter a grand coalition with Gantz and sell it under the pretense that BY-NU are too far-right. But I don't think so.

I don't like Otzma but the current outrage by Israeli journalists, who go full partisan, is disproportional. Meretz's NGO lovebabies (and Oppenheimer, Buskila were on the Meretz list) aren't any less extreme or dangerous. I would still vote for the BY-NU list, even if less enthusiastically.

The only effect of a joint Gantz-Lapid list will be that they soak even more electoral support out of Labour and Meretz. And Meretz isn't that far above the threshold in the first place. The center-left bloc won't gain anything and might even lose some support from voters who liked Gantz thing about being non-political etc. but do not like Lapid.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Since Kach and Kahane Chai are considered terrorist groups in the U.S. and Otzma are explicitly heirs of these movements, I'd support an official condemnation of Netanyahu by the American government for supporting terorrist groups.

I don't like Otzma but the current outrage by Israeli journalists, who go full partisan, is disproportional. Meretz's NGO lovebabies (and Oppenheimer, Buskila were on the Meretz list) aren't any less extreme or dangerous. I would still vote for the BY-NU list, even if less enthusiastically.

As Kahanism is explicit support for theocracy, anti-democracy, racism and ideas that sound very much like nazism, it's not comparable to anything the Zionist left has to offer. If anything, it's comparable to Balad in that both are bordering on supporting terrorism. Considering Kahana was boycotted by 119 MKs when he was in our parliament, the outrage is very much justified.

[danny]

This might change again, but Sharren Haskel won her appeal and is now back in a realistic spot on the Likud list (27 or 25, it isn't clear yet).

[Hnv1]

Since Kach and Kahane Chai are considered terrorist groups in the U.S. and Otzma are explicitly heirs of these movements, I'd support an official condemnation of Netanyahu by the American government for supporting terorrist groups.

I don't like Otzma but the current outrage by Israeli journalists, who go full partisan, is disproportional. Meretz's NGO lovebabies (and Oppenheimer, Buskila were on the Meretz list) aren't any less extreme or dangerous. I would still vote for the BY-NU list, even if less enthusiastically.

As Kahanism is explicit support for theocracy, anti-democracy, racism and ideas that sound very much like nazism, it's not comparable to anything the Zionist left has to offer. If anything, it's comparable to Balad in that both are bordering on supporting terrorism. Considering Kahana was boycotted by 119 MKs when he was in our parliament, the outrage is very much justified.

Shas did not boycott Khana back then (which makes since demographically)

Anyhow saying Buskila is as dangerous as the Otzma people is ridiculous. These are people who support violent terrorism, called on the burn churches, the Gopstein mob attacks Arabs in the streets and terrorizes mixed couple. Yariv or Buskila are from Peace Now, the vanilla of left NGOs

[DavidB.]

Just because it's more sophisticated and less concrete than the Otzma/Lehava thugs' vulgar and despicable violence doesn't make it any less dangerous. We all know about the way these NGOs and media like Haaretz and +972 try to slander and isolate Israel internationally. It's not just about the "occupation" and has nothing to do with Zionism, which they are opposed to. The Yesha Council and Im Tirtzu videos on this phenomenon remain accurate.

Anyway, a Panels poll for Walla, pre-BY/NU-Otzma agreement:

Likud 31 (+1)
Hosen 19 (+19)
Yesh Atid 13 (+2)
Ta'al + Joint List 11 (-2)
Labour 9 (-15)
New Right 8 (-)
BY-NU 8 (+8)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Meretz 5 (-)
Kulanu 4 (-6)
Gesher 4 (+4)
Shas 4 (-3)

Otzma (at 2.8%) and Yisrael Beiteinu below the threshold. Arutz Sheva tries to scare people into thinking this is a center-left victory, but this result would strengthen the camp to the right of Likud considerably and Gesher/Kulanu would presumably come home for a Bibi-led coalition anyway.

Meanwhile Netanyahu and BY are now apparently discussing potential ministerial portfolios for BY/NU/Otzma. BY want education, and Smotrich would be the one deciding on it on behalf of NU - imagine Bezalel Smotrich as Education Minister.

https://twitter.com/akivanovick/status/1098209704558428162

[DC Al Fine]

Still not quite understanding this: what was the friction that caused the split between Jewish Home and New Right?

[DavidB.]

Still not quite understanding this: what was the friction that caused the split between Jewish Home and New Right?

Bennett and Shaked were always on the left of the party, which wasn't a problem when they were surging in the polls but led to an increasing amount of frictions following the disappointing GE 2015 result. Bennett and Shaked's version is that the rhetoric and general political outlook of more religious, right-wing elements within the party, such as Smotrich, prevented BY from breaking through and being electorally successful with secular people. The version of events among "rump" BY, on the other hand, is that Bennett and Shaked used BY as a vehicle to gain national political prominence and left when it seemed convenient for them to do so. Though both parties avoid criticizing each other too much now.

If it works out and they manage to win the amount of seats separately that BY had before the elections, then more power to them.

[Hnv1]

Bibi offering the education and housing ministries to JH-NU if they agree to run wiht Otzma. that's a big treat for them. He seems paniced, and he should be, that's his only way to get a coalition to support him under indictment.

Meanwhile Ganz and Lapid are stepping up the gear in their merger talks.  interesting day ahead

[DavidB.]

New Right's top 15 Knesset slate:
1 Naftali Bennett
2 Ayelet Shaked
3 Alona Barkat
4 Matan Kahana
5 Shuli Moalem
6 Caroline Glick
7 Elyashiv Reichner
8 Uri Shechter
9 Amihai Chikli
10 Shirley Pinto
11 Yomtob Kalfon
12 Ron Bar-Yoshafat
13 Roni Sasover
14 Moshe Peled
15 Yochai Ezra

Yisrael Beytenu's top 10 on its Knesset slate:
1. Avigdor Liberman
2. Oded Forer
3. Yevgeny Suba
4. Eli Avidar
5. Yulia Malinovsky
6. Hamad Amar
7. Alex Kushnir
8. Mark Ifraimov
9. Limor Magen Telem
10. Elina Bardoch-Yalov

And for the sh**tvoters:

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1098177654908485632

[Hnv1]

New Right's top 15 Knesset slate:
1 Naftali Bennett
2 Ayelet Shaked
3 Alona Barkat
4 Matan Kahana
5 Shuli Moalem
6 Caroline Glick
7 Elyashiv Reichner
8 Uri Shechter
9 Amihai Chikli
10 Shirley Pinto
11 Yomtob Kalfon
12 Ron Bar-Yoshafat
13 Roni Sasover
14 Moshe Peled
15 Yochai Ezra

Yisrael Beytenu's top 10 on its Knesset slate:
1. Avigdor Liberman
2. Oded Forer
3. Yevgeny Suba
4. Eli Avidar
5. Yulia Malinovsky
6. Hamad Amar
7. Alex Kushnir
8. Mark Ifraimov
9. Limor Magen Telem
10. Elina Bardoch-Yalov

And for the sh**tvoters:

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1098177654908485632

New Right has very little to offer, it's personal votes for B&S and moderate religious zionists.

YB is really on the verge of the threshold, I assume Liberman just aims for the Russian base now

[DavidB.]

Would be interesting to see where these NR voters come from if the sum of BY-alliance + NR is about twice what BY got in 2015, especially given that Likud is polling at the same levels as in 2015. Maybe Shas -> Likud and some YB ->Likud, and then Likud -> NR, balancing things out for Likud. Most NR voters obviously come from BY but that can't be the whole story if BY-NU are at 8 too.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just because it's more sophisticated and less concrete than the Otzma/Lehava thugs' vulgar and despicable violence doesn't make it any less dangerous. We all know about the way these NGOs and media like Haaretz and +972 try to slander and isolate Israel internationally. It's not just about the "occupation" and has nothing to do with Zionism, which they are opposed to. The Yesha Council and Im Tirtzu videos on this phenomenon remain accurate.

No, sorry. From my experience dealing with these demagogues in matters relating to the university- nothing Im Tirtzu say is ever accurate. These populist liars wouldn't know truth if it hit them in the face on a white donkey. By the way, both sides have foreign-funded NGOs and it's funny because the right actually has more.

Also, yes, the Prime Minister officially sold his soul to homophobic a**hole Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who has the picture of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein in his home. He gave the JH-NU the Education Ministry (selling his nation's children) and the Construction Ministry, the 28th spot on his party's list and two spots in the cabinet.

Let it be known to everyone in the world that the PM of Israel sold out to nazis for his own personal gain.

[Vosem]

Gesher has announced that they will definitely run independently, with Levy slamming Gantz as "hallucinatory". Her list has been announced, and features nobody with any history of Knesset service besides Levy herself.

1. MK Orly Levy
2. law professor Yifat Biton
3. former Housing Ministry director-general Hagai Reznik
4. former Intel VP David Perlmutter
^^above this is possible
5. geneticist Liat Yakir
6. former diplomat Dan Shaham
^^below this is very unlikely
7. educator Hagai Lavi
8. former Ra'anana Municipality director Michal Hirsch-Negri
9. former Social Equality Ministry director-general Gilad Samama
10. social activist Carmel Elmakayes

Single-issue pro-marijuana legalization party Ale Yarok has announced they will sit the election out, and call on their voters to support other parties that support marijuana legalization (weirdly enough, Zehut and Meretz are the ones that explicitly call for it).

It looks like JH/NU will merge with Otzma, with Otzma receiving the fifth and eighth spots on the list in exchange. The fifth spot will go to Otzma leader, former National Union MK Michael Ben-Ari; the eighth spot may go to someone other than the second person on their list, attorney Itamar Ben-Gvir, who JH/NU don't want to allow on their list. Because Netanyahu pushed for the merger, he also agreed to allow JH leader Rafi Peretz to choose who Netanyahu will put in the 28th spot on the Likud list (which is very likely election).

Gabbay has announced his nominations for the 2nd (very likely) and 10th (unlikely, but possible) slots on the Labor list; the 2nd slot will go to general Tal Russo, and the 10th will go to Yesh Atid MK Haim Yellin.

[Simfan34]

What's this about a Lapid-Gantz merger?

[_]

https://twitter.com/yair_rosenberg/status/1098432921797566464?s=21

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