Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

Neither is Warren and she has consistently been among the top tier of candidates.

[Horus]

As expected Rice gets virtually no support from black voters. She's probably the only pick who would actually hurt Biden's numbers, like Lieberman did to Gore in 2000.

[Devils30]

Lieberman wasn't a bad pick, it nearly got him Florida with huge numbers in Palm Beach and Broward that Dems don't even match 20 years later with a more diverse population.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

Neither is Warren and she has consistently been among the top tier of candidates.

My impression is that Duckworth does not come across as the smoothest or most forceful public speaker. I might go so far as to see she is below average in that area.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

Neither is Warren and she has consistently been among the top tier of candidates.

My impression is that Duckworth does not come across as the smoothest or most forceful public speaker. I might go so far as to see she is below average in that area.

I don’t know if Independent voters who are considering Biden would ultimately pass on him because his choice for VP is not the most gifted orator there is.

[Bidenworth2020]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

This whole post is a bunch of malarkey. Biden is by all indications in good health, and will finish his full term. Furthermore, all of the reasons that you gave for Biden potentially stepping down midterm would have effects opposite of what you describe-- if he steps down mid-term he will be remembered primarily as an old guy who wasn't up for the job and little else, if he resigns to give his female VP incumbency it will just be used to say she didn't earn it similar to how Hillary was attacked in 2016 and finally, the only people who seriously believe the "creepy Joe" narratives are his staunchest opponents, not the people who will set the narrative for his life in the history books.

[Oryxslayer]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

This whole post is a bunch of malarkey. Biden is by all indications in good health, and will finish his full term. Furthermore, all of the reasons that you gave for Biden potentially stepping down midterm would have effects opposite of what you describe-- if he steps down mid-term he will be remembered primarily as an old guy who wasn't up for the job and little else, if he resigns to give his female VP incumbency it will just be used to say she didn't earn it similar to how Hillary was attacked in 2016 and finally, the only people who seriously believe the "creepy Joe" narratives are his staunchest opponents, not the people who will set the narrative for his life in the history books.

Yes, Biden is in excellent health. Yes, the white house should have the best doctors in the nation (parochial appoints only possible exception) so there is less chance of random health scares. HOWEVER, and this is the big one, you are kidding yourself if you think the executive office of a superpower doesn't tax one's psyche. It is quite possibly one of the most stressing jobs ever, maybe only behind things like suicide/911 call respondents. As an example, Obama's hair grayed while in office despite his young age. Biden is 77, 78 before the year ends. There is a reason people usually his age are in Florida away from sudden stressors and eating foods their doctor recommends. If you put the two and two together it's not hard to imagine Biden dying in office. Not anywhere close to likely, but it is an outcome somewhere on the bell curve. I have been saying this over and over in this thread, but every credible report suggests that Biden is treating the fact that he has a non-zero chance of finishing his term seriously, and seeking a candidate who will work well with his style, his entourage of appointments, and his general way of viewing the world. Everyone knows this, which is why we have personality and worldview puff pieces getting put out alongside the normal demographic and party-unification based ones.

Try and follow my thinking here. Biden most likely will survive 4 years in office if elected. If Biden was to be reelected he would be 82. As a person he would be feeling far more years on his shoulders than the average person age 82. To get to that point he would have to survive reelection which is a trial of its own, and his VP at this point would actually be seen as a president in waiting and get the attacks and media coverage entitled to such a position. No, its far more likely in my eyes that Biden, if elected, does not run for reelection. If you expect Biden not to run for reelection, you then need to consider democratic prospects, which will certainly be on his mind. Wouldn't it be better to have an incumbent president with policies of their own to run on than a competitive primary with everyone having to orient themselves around policies they have had little to no influence over? Wouldn't he want to avoid explaining to the nation and his politicos why he is not doing what is normal? Wouldn't everyone want to avoid the shadow of 1968 and LBJ's actions (something that continues to loom over everything inside the Democratic Party, whether we ignore it or acknowledge it)? It therefore makes sense for Biden to hand over the reigns, especially if he trusts and thinks of his VP as a fellow traveler on the road he once walked before.

I see it as a coin toss that Biden will not finish his term, most likely citing personal reasons. The only potential VP that is really disfavored by their age is Warren, who seems to have fallen off for numerous other reasons described on past pages. I'm not pulling for anyone in particular here, I'm pulling for everyone to recognize that demographics and optics aren't the only thing going on, despite them usually being the biggest drivers for VP selection. Character, personality, temperament, leadership experience, and Biden's personal congruence with said individual are all important factors that everyone needs to recognize matter this time - because Biden's team certainly does.

[Bidenworth2020]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

This whole post is a bunch of malarkey. Biden is by all indications in good health, and will finish his full term. Furthermore, all of the reasons that you gave for Biden potentially stepping down midterm would have effects opposite of what you describe-- if he steps down mid-term he will be remembered primarily as an old guy who wasn't up for the job and little else, if he resigns to give his female VP incumbency it will just be used to say she didn't earn it similar to how Hillary was attacked in 2016 and finally, the only people who seriously believe the "creepy Joe" narratives are his staunchest opponents, not the people who will set the narrative for his life in the history books.

Yes, Biden is in excellent health. Yes, the white house should have the best doctors in the nation (parochial appoints only possible exception) so there is less chance of random health scares. HOWEVER, and this is the big one, you are kidding yourself if you think the executive office of a superpower doesn't tax one's psyche. It is quite possibly one of the most stressing jobs ever, maybe only behind things like suicide/911 call respondents. As an example, Obama's hair grayed while in office despite his young age. Biden is 77, 78 before the year ends. There is a reason people usually his age are in Florida away from sudden stressors and eating foods their doctor recommends. If you put the two and two together it's not hard to imagine Biden dying in office. Not anywhere close to likely, but it is an outcome somewhere on the bell curve. I have been saying this over and over in this thread, but every credible report suggests that Biden is treating the fact that he has a non-zero chance of finishing his term seriously, and seeking a candidate who will work well with his style, his entourage of appointments, and his general way of viewing the world. Everyone knows this, which is why we have personality and worldview puff pieces getting put out alongside the normal demographic and party-unification based ones.

Try and follow my thinking here. Biden most likely will survive 4 years in office if elected. If Biden was to be reelected he would be 82. As a person he would be feeling far more years on his shoulders than the average person age 82. To get to that point he would have to survive reelection which is a trial of its own, and his VP at this point would actually be seen as a president in waiting and get the attacks and media coverage entitled to such a position. No, its far more likely in my eyes that Biden, if elected, does not run for reelection. If you expect Biden not to run for reelection, you then need to consider democratic prospects, which will certainly be on his mind. Wouldn't it be better to have an incumbent president with policies of their own to run on than a competitive primary with everyone having to orient themselves around policies they have had little to no influence over? Wouldn't he want to avoid explaining to the nation and his politicos why he is not doing what is normal? Wouldn't everyone want to avoid the shadow of 1968 and LBJ's actions (something that continues to loom over everything inside the Democratic Party, whether we ignore it or acknowledge it)? It therefore makes sense for Biden to hand over the reigns, especially if he trusts and thinks of his VP as a fellow traveler on the road he once walked before.

I see it as a coin toss that Biden will not finish his term, most likely citing personal reasons. The only potential VP that is really disfavored by their age is Warren, who seems to have fallen off for numerous other reasons described on past pages. I'm not pulling for anyone in particular here, I'm pulling for everyone to recognize that demographics and optics aren't the only thing going on, despite them usually being the biggest drivers for VP selection. Character, personality, temperament, leadership experience, and Biden's personal congruence with said individual are all important factors that everyone needs to recognize matter this time - because Biden's team certainly does.

Let's say what you describe happens immediately after the 2022 midterm and his VP takes the reigns-- do you really think that they would be able to pass anything meaningful before the campaign starts in earnest? Will they be able to establish their own independent reputation? Will they be able to shake notions of being "handed the job"-- something that could potentially be doubly potent when considering misogynistic attitudes? This scenario just has too many ways in which it could go horribly wrong and I can't see Biden agreeing to that. What I do think is more likely than not -- though certainly not inevitable -- is that Biden declines to run for a second term after 4 years, and his VP runs as a continuation of his policies (assuming he is moderately popular still).

[Ogre Mage]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Compared to Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, Duckworth has a much lower profile/name ID.  She does not have the fundraising power they have.  She cannot draw media and crowds the way they can.

Among the major constituencies within the Democratic Party, I see considerably less of a push for Duckworth.  Votevets, a liberal veterans organization, is supporting her nomination but that isn't a major constituency in the party.  Biden has lots of people yelling "ELIZABETH ELIZABETH" and "KAMALA KAMALA"  in his ear.  There isn't that kind of pressure for Duckworth.

Duckworth seems aware of this and there has been a notable effort to raise her profile in the last month.  But Harris and Warren are way ahead in that game.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

Neither is Warren and she has consistently been among the top tier of candidates.

She appeals to progressives. Who does Duckworth actually appeal to, besides just not being disliked by any major group within the party?

[Roll Roons]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Frankly, I think it’s that she’s not black.

Neither is Warren and she has consistently been among the top tier of candidates.

She appeals to progressives. Who does Duckworth actually appeal to, besides just not being disliked by any major group within the party?

Duckworth has appeal to swing voters, and can solidify Biden's already strong position with them. 90% of Warren's base lives in Brooklyn, Cambridge, Seattle, San Francisco and DC anyway. Warren will also fall for Trump's bait, while Duckworth can shut him down much more easily. There is literally no way Trump can attack Duckworth without looking worse than before. As a big Mark Kirk stan who interned in his office and volunteered for his campaign, I can tell you he probably lost at least 5 percentage points with this comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOnkZ9Um5ic

Her voting record in the House and Senate may not be Bernie's, but she's not exactly Manchin or Sinema either. She's a mainstream Democrat that a lot of people would be happy to vote for.

[Devils30]

This really isn't about current name ID, Biden does not need to be overshadowed. Duckworth with her story would build up plenty of goodwill very fast.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

[Devils30]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

[Da2017]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

The only pick I think that could end up hurting is Rice. Baggage + unproven electablity.

[Roll Roons]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

It's been said on here many times, but this election is absolutely different from 2016. The country's had four years of a very real Trump presidency, and seen how terrible he is at the job. Now, people know he can indeed win, and won't sit out again. Plus as I've said, "base" voters are mostly in Safe D states, and spoken as a young person, a lot of people my age are idiot Bernie-or-bust types who tear down statues of Abraham Lincoln and George Washington while complaining because their God Emperor didn't win the primary. Screw them. Swing voters, including seniors, are the real key to this election, along with juicing minority turnout.

[brucejoel99]

Heilemann was on Hacks On Tap yesterday & was saying that he's heard from Bidenworld that Joe keeps coming back to Warren as somebody he likes ("simpatico") & who meets the threshold of being both immediately & obviously qualified for the Presidency on Day 1, & that many in the Biden orbit perceive Kamala to be self-serving (in contrast to, say, Obamaworld never having perceived Biden as looking out for Biden rather than Obama).

He also suggested that the Top 2 at the moment are Kamala & Warren (in that order), & that there's likely a 3rd option floating around: presumably one of Demings/Duckworth based on the recent buzz & reporting.

[Devils30]

My gut feeling is he goes with the third option

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Heilemann was on Hacks On Tap yesterday & was saying that he's heard from Bidenworld that Joe keeps coming back to Warren as somebody he likes ("simpatico") & who meets the threshold of being both immediately & obviously qualified for the Presidency on Day 1, & that many in the Biden orbit perceive Kamala to be self-serving (in contrast to, say, Obamaworld never having perceived Biden as looking out for Biden rather than Obama).

This whole thing is just... lmao

Warren is just a disaster in waiting. This may be anecdotal, but there are a number of people that I've talked to who are on the fence about Biden and view her as a deal breaker. He risks losing support with independents with her.

Demings, Duckworth, and Harris are safe choices.

[izixs]

Heilemann was on Hacks On Tap yesterday & was saying that he's heard from Bidenworld that Joe keeps coming back to Warren as somebody he likes ("simpatico") & who meets the threshold of being both immediately & obviously qualified for the Presidency on Day 1, & that many in the Biden orbit perceive Kamala to be self-serving (in contrast to, say, Obamaworld never having perceived Biden as looking out for Biden rather than Obama).

This whole thing is just... lmao

Warren is just a disaster in waiting. This may be anecdotal, but there are a number of people that I've talked to who are on the fence about Biden and view her as a deal breaker. He risks losing support with independents with her.

Demings, Duckworth, and Harris are safe choices.

This almost sounds like folks looking for an excuse not to back Biden or... who assume he'll croak soon and thus want their favorite moderate who's younger instead. Both are a bit on the selfish side as one case is a disingenuous priming expectations for those who were going to be on team Trump the whole time but wanted to pretend they weren't horrible human begins and the other is bound entirely in fear of specifics of policy while ignoring the existential threat the GOP and this president pose to the nation. Note I would say similar things about the Bernie or bust folks who might accept Warren, maybe, but no one else.

In other words... one might want to try to sway one of these two groups, but... Biden's probably better off ignoring the wants of the ultimately selfish who even if he bends over backwards for them in the hope of meeting their demands are far from interested in supporting him, and instead Biden should be opting for the person who would make the best president if they happen to need to be. And that is a much more complicated calculation.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

The only pick I think that could end up hurting is Rice. Baggage + unproven electablity.

I wonder if the intense vetting going on with Rice is more about Secretary of State than the vice-presidency.  Biden cannot publicly vet her for that right now, it would be counting chickens before they hatch.  But she'd be very well-qualified for that job and the faster a Biden Administration can hit the ground running the better.

[wbrocks67]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

No... if anything, Harris generally did best among the 65+ crowd in the primary polls. She also seems to poll well with them in all these VP polls.

[wbrocks67]

Heilemann was on Hacks On Tap yesterday & was saying that he's heard from Bidenworld that Joe keeps coming back to Warren as somebody he likes ("simpatico") & who meets the threshold of being both immediately & obviously qualified for the Presidency on Day 1, & that many in the Biden orbit perceive Kamala to be self-serving (in contrast to, say, Obamaworld never having perceived Biden as looking out for Biden rather than Obama).

This whole thing is just... lmao

Warren is just a disaster in waiting. This may be anecdotal, but there are a number of people that I've talked to who are on the fence about Biden and view her as a deal breaker. He risks losing support with independents with her.

Demings, Duckworth, and Harris are safe choices.

This. Duckworth would even make more sense than Warren. I've heard the same thing from many - many moderate voters do not like Warren. It just is what it is, for better or worse. They think she's too far left.

And again - I just don't see how it would make any sense for Biden to not only pick a white person at this moment, but a white woman who is in her 70s.