Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Josh Barro
@jbarro
·
4h
There goes Biden again, not letting himself get walked into unpopular culture war positions.

This is why I think he will avoid Harris and Warren for the VP slot. When up 10 points, there is little upside to inviting these questions whenever a running mate wades into these issues.

when has Harris or Warren really been in "unpopular culture war positions"? Warren may jump on more left-leaning proposals like M4A, but neither have gone so far as to be with like Ilhan, etc. where they're joining "defund the police" / fringe left positions

Reparations for both. Twitter censorship for Harris. Much of what went down in the last weeks of Warren's campaign. Both of their initial responses to defund the police, which were initially a bit more equivocal than Biden's.

I don't think it's a huge liability for either of them or Biden as VP-nominees, for what it's worth, but I could see why that might make a candidate who'd been a bit more low-key about these issues (even if low-key just means less in the spotlight) appealing to Carville types.

The fact that reparations is a "culture war issue" says a lot about America. Every other group that has been severely marginalized and oppressed have gotten reparations or some other form of compensation (Native Americans & Japanese-Americans, for example) but yet the people who built this country can't? Unbelievable.

My parents are from Jamaica so reparations probably wouldn't even apply to me.

That’s the issue with reparations for me. Black people deserve it, of course. But how do we decide who gets it? Blacks in the United States suffer from systemic racism. That effects both current African immigrants as well as the descendants of slaves. Is the US giving reparations for slavery? Is it for the system to racism perpetrated in the country? No one knows and there’s no cut-and-dry way to figure it out.

That's true. It will be difficult to assess how reparations should be given out. I think it should be multi-faceted (not just a cash payment).

However, it shouldn't be a "culture war" issue which is what I was primarily addressing in my previous post.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Josh Barro
@jbarro
·
4h
There goes Biden again, not letting himself get walked into unpopular culture war positions.

This is why I think he will avoid Harris and Warren for the VP slot. When up 10 points, there is little upside to inviting these questions whenever a running mate wades into these issues.

when has Harris or Warren really been in "unpopular culture war positions"? Warren may jump on more left-leaning proposals like M4A, but neither have gone so far as to be with like Ilhan, etc. where they're joining "defund the police" / fringe left positions

Reparations for both. Twitter censorship for Harris. Much of what went down in the last weeks of Warren's campaign. Both of their initial responses to defund the police, which were initially a bit more equivocal than Biden's.

I don't think it's a huge liability for either of them or Biden as VP-nominees, for what it's worth, but I could see why that might make a candidate who'd been a bit more low-key about these issues (even if low-key just means less in the spotlight) appealing to Carville types.

The fact that reparations is a "culture war issue" says a lot about America.

Every culture war issues says a lot about the culture it is part of. IMO the fact that the culture war has come to define more of contemporary politics' parameters says more about the state of politics than the issues themselves, but that is not wholly unique to America by any means.

Every other group that has been severely marginalized and oppressed have gotten reparations or some other form of compensation

(Native Americans & Japanese-Americans, for example) but yet the people who built this country can't? Unbelievable.

My parents are from Jamaica so reparations probably wouldn't even apply to me.

The first sentence isn't true and the messiness of history is why it is not remotely surprising that reparations (reparations explicitly for historical slavery, not e.g. living victims of segregation) would be a culture war issue. If I'm not misunderstanding (though I often do ), reparations for slavery serve as a tool to account for historical injustices forced upon those who cannot live to appreciate the benefits of reparations, with the justification that the deceased share an interest with inheritors of their history (an unintended implication is that the slavedrivers share an interest with their living descendants).

Acceptance of state-sanctioned reparations requires the following:

1. An agreed point in history beyond which all historical injustices are ignored
2. An agreement on both the existence and the severity of the wrongs various groups inflicted on each other and the relative compensation appropriate for these wrongs
3. An agreement on how to define and categorise the descendants of each category sufficiently oppressed to meet grounds for compensation
4. An acceptance of either inherited disadvantage or original sin that must be compensated for, even if those getting paid are well-off

This might all seem simple in the context of the slave trade, but trying to get an entire country to agree on the above with respect to wider history (because "And what about [insert pogrom/historical genocide]" will come up) and throwing taxation into the mix is absolutely a breeding ground for a culture war.

[DisneyDem]

Josh Barro
@jbarro
·
4h
There goes Biden again, not letting himself get walked into unpopular culture war positions.

This is why I think he will avoid Harris and Warren for the VP slot. When up 10 points, there is little upside to inviting these questions whenever a running mate wades into these issues.

when has Harris or Warren really been in "unpopular culture war positions"? Warren may jump on more left-leaning proposals like M4A, but neither have gone so far as to be with like Ilhan, etc. where they're joining "defund the police" / fringe left positions

Reparations for both. Twitter censorship for Harris. Much of what went down in the last weeks of Warren's campaign. Both of their initial responses to defund the police, which were initially a bit more equivocal than Biden's.

I don't think it's a huge liability for either of them or Biden as VP-nominees, for what it's worth, but I could see why that might make a candidate who'd been a bit more low-key about these issues (even if low-key just means less in the spotlight) appealing to Carville types.

The fact that reparations is a "culture war issue" says a lot about America. Every other group that has been severely marginalized and oppressed have gotten reparations or some other form of compensation (Native Americans & Japanese-Americans, for example) but yet the people who built this country can't? Unbelievable.

My parents are from Jamaica so reparations probably wouldn't even apply to me.

I’ve seen this come up  A couple of times as an anti-Harris talking points. As one of her biggest critics I hate to say this because I believe criticism can be legitimate, but this feels like a bit of a dog whistle to me. Not saying that’s how you intended it, but rather how it spread. Because I’m Unaware of any time she has supported this. Again long list of reasons why I think she’d be a bad choice, but this is it one of them

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Josh Barro
@jbarro
·
4h
There goes Biden again, not letting himself get walked into unpopular culture war positions.

This is why I think he will avoid Harris and Warren for the VP slot. When up 10 points, there is little upside to inviting these questions whenever a running mate wades into these issues.

when has Harris or Warren really been in "unpopular culture war positions"? Warren may jump on more left-leaning proposals like M4A, but neither have gone so far as to be with like Ilhan, etc. where they're joining "defund the police" / fringe left positions

Reparations for both. Twitter censorship for Harris. Much of what went down in the last weeks of Warren's campaign. Both of their initial responses to defund the police, which were initially a bit more equivocal than Biden's.

I don't think it's a huge liability for either of them or Biden as VP-nominees, for what it's worth, but I could see why that might make a candidate who'd been a bit more low-key about these issues (even if low-key just means less in the spotlight) appealing to Carville types.

The fact that reparations is a "culture war issue" says a lot about America. Every other group that has been severely marginalized and oppressed have gotten reparations or some other form of compensation (Native Americans & Japanese-Americans, for example) but yet the people who built this country can't? Unbelievable.

My parents are from Jamaica so reparations probably wouldn't even apply to me.

I’ve seen this come up  A couple of times as an anti-Harris talking points. As one of her biggest critics I hate to say this because I believe criticism can be legitimate, but this feels like a bit of a dog whistle to me. Not saying that’s how you intended it, but rather how it spread. Because I’m Unaware of any time she has supported this. Again long list of reasons why I think she’d be a bad choice, but this is it one of them

There's definitely a dog whistle element to her not getting as much of a pass as, say, Warren, because she's a black woman arguing for a certain reform on a racial justice issue and this is cast as entitlement etc by the worst of the usual suspects online.

Harris talked it up in the primaries more than most candidates and certainly more than lower-profile HR 40 cosponsors who weren't in the limelight like Tammy Duckworth and Val Demings (both of whom supported HR 40 but have fewer televised speeches on reparations which could be weaponised against them). However, she was quite resistant on actually committing to cash reparations, arguing primarily for the study of them. As I stated, I don't think this is going to be very electorally significant for her as VP.

[Devils30]

Reparations is a really unpopular position. But you can see why maybe Biden wants a lower key running mate who could help him get that 10-15% victory. There is a lot of political value in winning big and Harris/Warren complicate this goal.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Reparations is a really unpopular position. But you can see why maybe Biden wants a lower key running mate who could help him get that 10-15% victory. There is a lot of political value in winning big and Harris/Warren complicate this goal.

Once again, just because you say something doesn't make it true.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Reparations is a really unpopular position. But you can see why maybe Biden wants a lower key running mate who could help him get that 10-15% victory. There is a lot of political value in winning big and Harris/Warren complicate this goal.

Like... what are you talking about? At no point in either of these women’s campaigns did they make reparations a major talking point. Just say you don’t like them and keep it moving. Stop making up fake controversies and putting words in their mouth that they never said.

[Devils30]

Reparations is a really unpopular position. But you can see why maybe Biden wants a lower key running mate who could help him get that 10-15% victory. There is a lot of political value in winning big and Harris/Warren complicate this goal.

Like... what are you talking about? At no point in either of these women’s campaigns did they make reparations a major talking point. Just say you don’t like them and keep it moving. Stop making up fake controversies and putting words in their mouth that they never said.

They didn’t but neither had a very high favorable rating either. It just seems like a lost opportunity to expand the Democratic vote totals by catering to the base.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

During his press conference yesterday, Biden said that he won’t pick his VP in July.

The 2nd week of August is now most likely, he said.

[Ogre Mage]

There is no running mate without risk.  Harris and Warren's baggage is more visible because they ran a presidential campaign and have been battle-tested in the national arena.  Good for them.  I consider that a plus.  Those who didn't take to the field need to be vetted even more carefully because their political baggage is not out there and we have far less of a sense how they will perform in the national spotlight.  We may not know what their dirty laundry is but the Biden campaign likely does.

Obama picked Biden in 2008 even though during Biden's first run for president as a hot young sensation in 1988 he had to drop out because of a plagiarism scandal.  Biden had been on the national stage for so long with the press scrutiny to match that Obama could have some confidence his $h!t was already known publicly.

[wbrocks67]

Huh. But I was told that Harris wasn't exciting and that Warren was top with black voters?

USA TODAY/SUFFOLK POLL

How important to you is it that Joe Biden pick a woman of color as his running mate?
72% important (37% somewhat, 35% very)
27% not very or not at all

Harris: 41% of whites and 32% of blacks said they would be “excited” by her choice, another 33% acceptable, 12% “not acceptable”
Abrams: 20% of whites and 27% of blacks said they would be “excited” by her choice, another 29% acceptable, 10% “not acceptable”
Warren: 33% of whites and 15% of blacks said they would be “excited” by her choice, another 38% acceptable, 19% “not acceptable” (highest negative of anyone)
Rice: 20% of whites and 24% of blacks said they would be “excited” by her choice, another 35% acceptable, 10% “not acceptable’

Majority of respondents didn’t know enough about Demings, Duckworth, Baldwin, Bass, Grisham to form an opinion

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/01/joe-biden-vp-choice-democrats-want-woman-color-ticket/5349408002/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

[Pheurton Skeurto]

BTW:

During his press conference yesterday, Biden said that he won’t pick his VP in July.

The 2nd week of August is now most likely, he said.

For f--ks sake

[DisneyDem]

In my heart of hearts, I feel like it should be Susan Rice. I know that’s completely unscientific but that is my view

[wbrocks67]

In my heart of hearts, I feel like it should be Susan Rice. I know that’s completely unscientific but that is my view

Rice would double down too much on the "Obama"-ness of it all imo. It would be overkill. Not to mention she's less exciting than just about every other name that has been brought up.

[DisneyDem]

He’s a up 10 on a return to normal message. He needs the hammer that home with the ultimate Governing pick. Plus I think any black woman without a law and order background is exciting

[wbrocks67]

YouGov poll:

Favorabilities

Stacey Abrams
Adults: 29/27 (+2)
RV: 36/31 (+5)

Keisha Lance Bottoms
Adults: 19/20 (-1)
RV: 23/18 (+5)

Val Demings
Adults: 17/17 (=)
RV: 20/16 (+4)

Kamala Harris
Adults: 37/35 (+2)
RV: 43/41 (+2)

Susan Rice
Adults: 25/26 (-1)
RV: 29/32 (-3)

Elizabeth Warren
Adults: 40/41 (-1)
RV: 44/45 (-1)

Tammy Duckworth
Adults: 22/17 (+5)
RV: 27/20 (+7)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

YouGov poll:

Favorabilities

Stacey Abrams
Adults: 29/27 (+2)
RV: 36/31 (+5)

Keisha Lance Bottoms
Adults: 19/20 (-1)
RV: 23/18 (+5)

Val Demings
Adults: 17/17 (=)
RV: 20/16 (+4)

Kamala Harris
Adults: 37/35 (+2)
RV: 43/41 (+2)

Susan Rice
Adults: 25/26 (-1)
RV: 29/32 (-3)

Elizabeth Warren
Adults: 40/41 (-1)
RV: 44/45 (-1)

Tammy Duckworth
Adults: 22/17 (+5)
RV: 27/20 (+7)

That is interesting given how much of a favourability advantage Warren had amongst Democratic primary voters in every YouGov/Economist poll relative to her scores in other favourability-rating polls.

[Devils30]

It’s easier for Biden to define a new face in a good way.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov: Who should be selected as VP?

Kamala Harris: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Stacey Abrams: 8%
Susan Rice: 6%
Tammy Duckworth: 5%

Whites:
Kamala Harris: 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Susan Rice: 10%
Stacey Abrams: 8%
Tammy Duckworth: 6%

Blacks:
Kamala Harris: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Stacey Abrams: 15%
Val Demings: 6%
Susan Rice: 2%
Tammy Duckworth: 1%

Hispanics
Elizabeth Warren: 26%
Kamala Harris: 22%
Susan Rice: 8%
Tammy Duckworth: 5%
Stacey Abrams: 2%

18-29:
Elizabeth Warren: 26%
Kamala Harris: 25%
Tammy Duckworth: 5%
Stacey Abrams: 4%
Tammy Duckworth: 0%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k05rp8ded6/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

We have now have two polls showing black supporters are most supportive of Harris for VP, and even Whites, as well.

Most shocked at the 18-29 demo in the YouGov poll. There's another narrative that Harris doesn't have support among younger voters, but...

[blackentheborg]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

[wbrocks67]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

For a couple reasons - Biden has said he wants to be a "bridge" to the next generation of Democrats, and you also want someone who will further excite younger voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Stupid question but why exactly does Biden need a younger VP? Is he just trying to shore up the age bracket?

Biden's advanced age is seen as a weakness not just demographically, there are also the physical limitations of the office. I think there is a good chance Biden ends up not finishing his term. He either will succumb to the stresses of office, resign before the stresses get to him and go out being remembered as a calm interlude between polarizing storms, or he desires to empower the first female Pres and give her some time in office before running for reelection. Handing the keys over to the first woman would not just do wonders for his legacy, it also probably ends any serious discussion of "creepy uncle Joe" when people sit down to write about his legacy. For all these reasons, Biden wants someone who is young enough for potentially (but unlikely) a decade of work in the executive branch in some capacity.

[DisneyDem]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

[Roll Roons]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

The only possible downside I can think of is that she worked in Blago's administration. And even then, it's kind of hard to attack her as corrupt.