IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

1974 was definitely a bigger Dem Wave year than 2020 for sure, and at the end of the day 2008 will probably be as well

[Lognog]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

1974 was definitely a bigger Dem Wave year than 2020 for sure, and at the end of the day 2008 will probably be as well

depends how you measure it. popular vote margin it could be bigger while at the same time being smaller on the EC

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

1974 was definitely a bigger Dem Wave year than 2020 for sure, and at the end of the day 2008 will probably be as well

depends how you measure it. popular vote margin it could be bigger while at the same time being smaller on the EC

Democrats won the House popular vote by 17 points in 1974, and double digits in 2008

[Lognog]

Hot take: Ernst isn’t a "worse candidate" now than she was six years ago. The only difference between now and then is that she’s running in a historic Democratic tidal wave (the largest since 1964) in which she’s been outspent badly whereas she was fortunate enough to run in a fairly R-friendly environment six years ago. That’s really the only difference (even Braley wouldn’t be doing much worse than Greenfield right now). If Ernst had been up for reelection in 2022 instead of 2020, people (including myself) would have continued to praise her as a "strong incumbent" because she would have been on track for an easy reelection.

1974 was definitely a bigger Dem Wave year than 2020 for sure, and at the end of the day 2008 will probably be as well

depends how you measure it. popular vote margin it could be bigger while at the same time being smaller on the EC

Democrats won the House popular vote by 17 points in 1974, and double digits in 2008

I was talking about the presidential level, but I agree that nothing will beat those years on the congressional level

[MT Treasurer]

It did happen with Menendez: he got about 150,000 fewer votes than the House Democratic candidates statewide while Hugin over performed House Republicans by slightly more than that.

Comparing it to House PV is the wrong way to look at it, especially considering the Democratic overperformance in House races with candidates like Van Drew. Take a look at the total number of votes cast:

3,169,310 in the Senate race
3,098,743 in the House races

It’s a myth that there were legions of Democratic voters who couldn’t stomach voting for Menendez and skipped that race. If it didn’t happen with Menendez, there’s no way it would happen with Braley.

I'd also wager Menendez's odiousness probably turned out low-propensity House Republican voters at a higher rate than House races turned out low-propensity Senate Republican voters.

Which is why their House delegation was reduced from 7-5 to 11-1?

How do you square this your assessment of John James' chances?

James has only had one good poll recently, and even in that one he was stuck in the low forties.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

2018 suggested a pretty solid swing back to Ds, even though Reynolds still won the governors race, but those tend to be less partisan anyways. However, 2018 did re-affirm the IA polling in general tends to overestimate Ds a bit, as it did in 2016, 2012, and even 2008, when polls showed Obama up by close to 20% in the state sometimes. It's like the Republican version of NV sort of; a state where polling makes it fools gold, and is generally trending towards one party, with occasional swings back to the other side.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/JustinBarasky/status/1316903522814873600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/JustinBarasky/status/1316903522814873600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Oh geez, it's over

[Gass3268]

Compare to Greenfield

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1316913995585040385?s=20

The back to back of these answers are going to be in every Greenfield ad until the election.

[WD]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

[KaiserDave]

I still think Ernst is being underestimated. But.....

She is running an atrocious campaign. This is so embarrassing.

[Bootes Void]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

Tillis told his supporters to go vote November 11th. I think they are seeing the limits of how much stupidity can they get away it

[SevenEleven]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

The GOP is the stupid party. Their Senators are dumber than Patrick Star. Their SCOTUS nominee doesn't even know the first amendment. Their president wanted to wear a superman shirt, as if he were picking out a child's underwear.

[Calthrina950]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

The GOP is the stupid party. Their Senators are dumber than Patrick Star. Their SCOTUS nominee doesn't even know the first amendment. Their president wanted to wear a superman shirt, as if he were picking out a child's underwear.

These examples you point out help to demonstrate why college-educated voters are trending so heavily Democratic. I doubt that people who took the time and effort to advance themselves, from an educational and a professional perspective, appreciate the ignorance of many of these Republican politicians. Of course, we have ignorant Democratic politicians as well, but one party certainly seems to be outshining the other in that respect.

[Alben Barkley]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

They’ve never had to try before.

[DINGO Joe]

I still think Ernst is being underestimated. But.....

She is running an atrocious campaign. This is so embarrassing.

I agree, her atrociousness has been underestimated.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

What’s funny is other than 2000 or 2004 it really wasn’t a swing state at all(maybe 2012). It was a solid republican state before 1988 , Safe D in 1988, Likely D in 1992 , Safe D in 1996 and 2008 and Lean D in 2012

Every R believes IA and OH are forever R states, Ernst is in Tom Harkin's seat and Strickland would have beaten Portman, he said Scalia's death was good for America, which turned the whole Senate campaign around, Strickland was leading like Hillary in every OH poll

[DINGO Joe]

Just a little color to the Ernst soybean fail tonight.  While my Grandpa was the farmer, Grandma was the brains of the outfit (which, if you ever met her would be a little hard to believe).  Everyday at lunch time she had the radio on and would record the noon crop prices (futures and cash) and make notes about weather and crop condition.  Always looking for the best time to sell the crop (or store it).  She had notebook after notebook of this stuff.  Did she  ever figure anything out?  Who knows?  Of course, nowadays you've got computers and you probably hire a specialist to sell your crop (your farm is probably 5-10x bigger now) but they still pour over futures and hedges like people here dissect every poll.

[Holmes]

I mean, Ernst has done six 99-county ‘retail’ tours since her first election and has been touring the state in the last weeks as well, what else is she supposed to do?

Know the break even price of soybeans in Iowa?

[wbrocks67]

What is with all these Republican incumbents (Ernst, Graham,) absolutely crumbling under pressure and turning what should be an easy re-election into competitive races? I understand that the political environment is bad, but damn, it’s like these people don’t know how to run a campaign.

bc Ernst has been vastly overestimated. She's not a good candidate, and this year is making that blatantly clear

[Tartarus Sauce]

Jesus that was a fatally horrible exchange for Ernst in a state like Iowa, and to have Greenfield upstage her right afterwards. This plays straight into Greenfield's messaging about Ernst now being a corporate shill schmoozing up to DC interests that's gotten out of touch with Iowans back home.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Three-sixty-eight.  The kill shot.

Greenfield raised $28.7M last quarter, and Ernst only $7.1M.  4-to-1.  Greenfield's got this.

How are you so confident about IA, Greenfield probably has the slight edge but its still clearly a tossup given Iowa is a state that Democrats usually get over polled(basically the opposite of Nevada).