IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well there is no guarantee of when that year will occur.  Really the only time having a member from a vulnerable House seat run for Senate ever works out is in a midterm of an opposing party President. 

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

That would also make the most geographic sense.

[MT Treasurer]

She’s obviously more likely to win reelection than to beat Ernst. I’d say Finkenauer is slightly more vulnerable than Axne in 2020 but both House races will be highly contested.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

[Politician]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

lol at you comparing ME and IA in a presidential year to LA and IN in a massive R wave midterm year.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

lol at you comparing ME and IA in a presidential year to LA and IN in a massive R wave midterm year.

Trump may still win Iowa and Ernst is fairly popular.  Collins is still popular and leads generic D (which believe me always performs better than any actual D).

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

You do not know what you are talking about at all if you think Jared Golden would have a 100% chance of losing a Senate race and a 50% chance or greater of winning re-election instead.

Do you really believe that Trump will carry ME-02 by a wide margin again?

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

You do not know what you are talking about at all if you think Jared Golden would have a 100% chance of losing a Senate race and a 50% chance or greater of winning re-election instead.

Do you really believe that Trump will carry ME-02 by a wide margin again?

Is the Pope Catholic? To make my point more clear:

If a Democratic House member sits in a R+ PVI House seat that’s not trending dramatically left (like the OC seats with misleading PVI’s), there’s something like a 90% chance they will lose re-election in the next R wave. Thus it would behoove that Congressperson to run for Senate or higher office at their first opportunity if they want to continue their political careers. Because it’s very rare to find House members become entrenched in tough terrain.

It usually doesn’t work to run for Senate from a tough House seat.  Again, the only person I can think of who it worked out for is Jackie Rosen and it was in a wave year for her party.  Do you really believe Axne can win statewide in Iowa if Trump is carrying the state?

[IceSpear]

Axne and Finkenauer are in the situation where their best hope of long term survival is for Trump to narrowly win re-election (preferably while the Democratic nominee narrowly carries their districts.)

It reminds me of McSally who is in deep sh*t due to having to run in two consectutive cycles, one of which is likely to be a decent year for Democrats.

[S019]

Running Axne or Finkenauer is not smart. Democrats should really just run Tom Miller here, if he loses, Democrats should then cede Iowa to the GOP, they way that the GOP should cede VA and maybe CO to the Dems. Also this idea that Golden or Finkenauer or any House freshman will beat a popular Senate incumbent is unreasonable. Taking down Senate incumbents requires experience.

[Hatchet]

Iowa is gone for Democrats. It is the new Nebraska. The state doesn't have any large Democratic strongholds like Wisconsin or Michigan to tilt the state to the left. It is a mostly rural, less educated state with no clear path for Democrats to win. We all know the rural areas don't vote Democrat anymore. Sad.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I am loving these posts saying Iowa is an impossible lift for Democrats nowadays. It has several urban centers, and the liberal turnout in 2016 was utterly abysmal, making it appear more Republican than one may think. The user PAK Man said that Iowa just really hated Hillary Clinton; they didn't love Trump. You can see that through his approval ratings in Iowa.

It's also over a year before we really start to get a clear picture of what will be happening. People thought Iowa was solidly in the bag for Democrats in 2016 at this point in the cycle in 2015. That was after Iowa Democrats had one of their most disastrous midterms ever.

Now Iowa Democrats hold 3/4 of the US House seats and a good chunk of the statewide offices that were up in 2018, only losing some narrowly. That does not scream "dead" to me.

Tom Miller would be a bad candidate because a. he's old and probably doesn't want to be a Senator b. I would guess he has never had to seriously campaign with how abnormal his landslides are. There are plenty of options: remember, Bart Brentley was also considered unbeatably titanium despite the impending six year itch and Joni Ernst was just some Some Dude State Senator who castrated pigs.

Of course, Boblark stuck his foot in his mouth when he insulted farmers along with that clown Grassley, who is a saint of Iowa (and the Windsor Heights Dairy Queen). Ernst had it easy from there. Democrats could potentially whip a candidate out of nowhere and still have success, as long as said some dude candidate is a farmer.

Now Ernst has to run on being a Trump lackey in a state he is divisive in. Can she be beaten? Yeah, Democrats have a lot of potential factors going for them - and as said before, things can change greatly.

Atlas Democrats are writing this seat off far too soon, refusing to think of possibilities. Or the variable future. But what else is new? Blue Texas, apparently?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst can be reelected and Dems can win state with Kamala-Brown ticket. Dems dont necessarily have to win all 3, VA, IA or OH, but those three have predicted the right winnet in 4/5 elections.

[SnowLabrador]

Axne would be the second-worst choice after Hubbell in my opinion. She reminds me a lot of him, a policy wonk with absolutely no charisma. That's not a combination that can win Iowa.

[Mr.Phips]

Axne would be the second-worst choice after Hubbell in my opinion. She reminds me a lot of him, a policy wonk with absolutely no charisma. That's not a combination that can win Iowa.

To be fair, this description pretty much fits Tom Vilsack as well.

[Torrain]

Running Axne or Finkenauer is not smart. Democrats should really just run Tom Miller here, if he loses, Democrats should then cede Iowa to the GOP, they way that the GOP should cede VA and maybe CO to the Dems. Also this idea that Golden or Finkenauer or any House freshman will beat a popular Senate incumbent is unreasonable. Taking down Senate incumbents requires experience.

Yes taking down Senate incumbents requires all the experience that seasoned campaigners have developed over many years, like Rosen, Cotton, Ron Johnson, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Maggie Hassan, Kay Hagan, Thom tillis, Jeff Merkley

Not to mention Ernst herself

[SnowLabrador]

Running Axne or Finkenauer is not smart. Democrats should really just run Tom Miller here, if he loses, Democrats should then cede Iowa to the GOP, they way that the GOP should cede VA and maybe CO to the Dems. Also this idea that Golden or Finkenauer or any House freshman will beat a popular Senate incumbent is unreasonable. Taking down Senate incumbents requires experience.

Yes taking down Senate incumbents requires all the experience that seasoned campaigners have developed over many years, like Rosen, Cotton, Ron Johnson, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Maggie Hassan, Kay Hagan, Thom tillis, Jeff Merkley

Not to mention Ernst herself

Bruce Braley was not an incumbent.

[Seattle]

Running Axne or Finkenauer is not smart. Democrats should really just run Tom Miller here, if he loses, Democrats should then cede Iowa to the GOP, they way that the GOP should cede VA and maybe CO to the Dems. Also this idea that Golden or Finkenauer or any House freshman will beat a popular Senate incumbent is unreasonable. Taking down Senate incumbents requires experience.

Yes taking down Senate incumbents requires all the experience that seasoned campaigners have developed over many years, like Rosen, Cotton, Ron Johnson, Mike Braun, Josh Hawley, Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Maggie Hassan, Kay Hagan, Thom tillis, Jeff Merkley

Not to mention Ernst herself

Bruce Braley was not an incumbent.

I think you mean Bob Barley.

[freepcrusher]

Axne would be the second-worst choice after Hubbell in my opinion. She reminds me a lot of him, a policy wonk with absolutely no charisma. That's not a combination that can win Iowa.

would you rather run a deranged loon like glasson?

[MT Treasurer]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/sen-liz-mathis-meets-with-democrats-in-dc-to-talk-about-2020-senate-race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is clearly a competetive state and Ernst like Gardner won an upset

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

The DCCC should be sitting down with these members showing them polls that  show that they can’t win the Senate race they are looking at.

Ellsworth and Melancon probably would have lost in 2010 if they ran for re-election, possibly by even more than they lost when they ran for Senate. The PVI of their Districts at the time was even more Republican than that of their state PVI.

[PAK Man]

For what it's worth - and I haven't gone through every single page of this - I think Liz Mathis would be a great candidate for senate. But my dream candidate is J.D. Scholten.

Polling shows Ernst with high approval, but I do think she's vulnerable. Ernst looks good because she's very "folksy" and has rural Iowa appeal. But when you actually listen to her, you see how bad she actually is. Iowans, though, are willing to overlook that if you're a so-called "nice" person. Also, you have to be pro-ag. And I mean REALLY pro-ag.

Democrats would be smart to get somebody not from Des Moines. Oh rural Iowans hate Des Moines with a passion. They constantly see them as anti-farmer. I'm sure other states are like this (western Nebraska probably hates Omaha, and I know downstate Illinois people hate Chicago) but it just seems excessive here in Iowa.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

For what it's worth - and I haven't gone through every single page of this - I think Liz Mathis would be a great candidate for senate. But my dream candidate is J.D. Scholten.

Polling shows Ernst with high approval, but I do think she's vulnerable. Ernst looks good because she's very "folksy" and has rural Iowa appeal. But when you actually listen to her, you see how bad she actually is. Iowans, though, are willing to overlook that if you're a so-called "nice" person. Also, you have to be pro-ag. And I mean REALLY pro-ag.

Democrats would be smart to get somebody not from Des Moines. Oh rural Iowans hate Des Moines with a passion. They constantly see them as anti-farmer. I'm sure other states are like this (western Nebraska probably hates Omaha, and I know downstate Illinois people hate Chicago) but it just seems excessive here in Iowa.

The difference between the Western Nebraska vs. Omaha rivalry and the Iowa and Illinois rivalries is that Omaha does not have anywhere close to enough power to overwhelm Western Nebraska. As a result, we have the state perpetually run by angry rich white ranchers that probably think they will instadie if they step east of 72nd in Omaha.

In fact, there is only one Democrat in the legislature that represents anywhere in NE-03! He's in Grand Island.

[PAK Man]

For what it's worth - and I haven't gone through every single page of this - I think Liz Mathis would be a great candidate for senate. But my dream candidate is J.D. Scholten.

Polling shows Ernst with high approval, but I do think she's vulnerable. Ernst looks good because she's very "folksy" and has rural Iowa appeal. But when you actually listen to her, you see how bad she actually is. Iowans, though, are willing to overlook that if you're a so-called "nice" person. Also, you have to be pro-ag. And I mean REALLY pro-ag.

Democrats would be smart to get somebody not from Des Moines. Oh rural Iowans hate Des Moines with a passion. They constantly see them as anti-farmer. I'm sure other states are like this (western Nebraska probably hates Omaha, and I know downstate Illinois people hate Chicago) but it just seems excessive here in Iowa.

The difference between the Western Nebraska vs. Omaha rivalry and the Iowa and Illinois rivalries is that Omaha does not have anywhere close to enough power to overwhelm Western Nebraska. As a result, we have the state perpetually run by angry rich white ranchers that probably think they will instadie if they step east of 72nd in Omaha.

In fact, there is only one Democrat in the legislature that represents anywhere in NE-03! He's in Grand Island.

Yeah I've never been outside of Omaha but I have friends from Nebraska and all they talk about is how outside of Omaha, there's virtually nothing.