IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, do people actually think that Vilsack could outperform the Democratic nominee by as much as Bayh or Bredesen? Seriously, maybe he’d "outperform" by as much as Tommy Thompson on a good night for Democrats, but more likely he collapses like Ted Strickland and loses by double digits. He’s not beating a relatively popular incumbent Republican Senator in a state like Iowa, especially since it’s fairly likely that Trump wins the state by 6% or more in 2020 (even if he loses reelection), and in that case even someone like Scholten would most likely lose unless Ernst runs a garbage/Roy Blunt tier campaign. People are saying that Ernst couldn’t possibly win by a lot because reasons, but I’m old enough to remember when people said the same thing about the "very vulnerable" Rob Portman. Of course Ernst isn’t completely safe, but she’s definitely not more vulnerable than Tillis, Gardner, Daines, Cornyn, or Perdue.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wait, do people actually think that Vilsack could outperform the Democratic nominee by as much as Bayh or Bredesen? Seriously, maybe he’d "outperform" by as much as Tommy Thompson on a good night for Democrats, but more likely he collapses like Ted Strickland and loses by double digits. He’s not beating a relatively popular incumbent Republican Senator in a state like Iowa, especially since it’s fairly likely that Trump wins the state by 6% or more in 2020 (even if he loses reelection), and in that case even someone like Scholten would most likely lose unless Ernst runs a garbage/Roy Blunt tier campaign. People are saying that Ernst couldn’t possibly win by a lot because reasons, but I’m old enough to remember when people said the same thing about the "very vulnerable" Rob Portman. Of course Ernst isn’t completely safe, but she’s definitely not more vulnerable than Tillis, Gardner, Daines, Cornyn, or Perdue.

[lfromnj]

http://iowainformer.com/interviews/2019/01/j-d-scholten-on-steve-king-randy-feenstra-and-whats-next-for-him/


Scholten undecided on running for 2020 senate. In this retail state a candidate like Scholten could give Ernst a scare rather than old and disconnected Vilsack.
 Rob Sand could do a Josh Hawley too.


Im still very impressed by his close loss against Steve King in such a rural and Trumpy district despite the fact there was no attentioned paid to this district really until the last week(I heard about some internals  that him down by 6-8 but was expecting him to lose by 15. In the last week I expecte something like +12 King)

[Zaybay]

http://iowainformer.com/interviews/2019/01/j-d-scholten-on-steve-king-randy-feenstra-and-whats-next-for-him/


Scholten undecided on running for 2020 senate. In this retail state a candidate like Scholten could give Ernst a scare rather than old and disconnected Vilsack.
 Rob Sand could do a Josh Hawley too.


Im still very impressed by his close loss against Steve King in such a rural and Trumpy district despite the fact there was no attentioned paid to this district really until the last week(I heard about some internals  that him down by 6-8 but was expecting him to lose by 15. In the last week I expecte something like +12 King)

Oh, thank god. He is most likely our best candidate for this race.

[ON Progressive]

https://front.moveon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/IowaResults1.pdf

PPP has UTJE approval at 45/42.

[MT Treasurer]

Ernst has better numbers than Tillis, McSally, Perdue, Collins, and even Sullivan (who’s considered safe for some reason). Also, Trump’s at 45/52 (-7) in this poll.

That said, Ernst is two or three 99 county tours away from locking it up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst has better numbers than Tillis, McSally, Perdue, Collins, and even Sullivan (who’s considered safe for some reason). Also, Trump’s at 45/52 (-7) in this poll.

That said, Ernst is two or three 99 county tours away from locking it up.

You made the Tester analogy and Tester wasnt supposed to have a competitiveive race and he did. The same thing can happen to Ernst. Hubbell came within 2 to beat Reynolds. If it wasnt for Dems disarray with Boulton, Dems could have won. IA is a tossup state.

[Continential]

Vilsack is Bayh 2.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Scholten says he wants to take on King, again, who else aside from Vilsack will run? You saw what happened to Patty Judge who got trounced.

[Storr]

Scholten says he wants to take on King, again, who else aside from Vilsack will run? You saw what happened to Patty Judge who got trounced.

Rep. Dave Loebsack?

[JMT]

Scholten says he wants to take on King, again, who else aside from Vilsack will run? You saw what happened to Patty Judge who got trounced.

Rep. Dave Loebsack?

He’d probably be one of the better candidates to run against Ernst, but as a Democrat I don’t want him to run. Trump won this district by 4 points, and I’d be worried this seat could flip to Republicans if Loebsack gave it up to run for senate.

[Doimper]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

[henster]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

People keep downing Vilsack but I'm not hearing better names. In any state a two term Gov is always usually the best Senate recruit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

People keep downing Vilsack but I'm not hearing better names. In any state a two term Gov is always usually the best Senate recruit.

Axne, Finkenauer, or Scholten would be fine. I don't mind risking a House seat for a Senate seat.

[PAK Man]

Scholten says he wants to take on King, again, who else aside from Vilsack will run? You saw what happened to Patty Judge who got trounced.

Rep. Dave Loebsack?

Absolutely not. He's not as strong as people think he is. I know a lot of Democrats who don't like him because he doesn't do much for other Dems in his district.

JD Scholten, Todd Pritchard or Rita Hart would be at the top of my wish list.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is a compassionate conservative and in more in line with Capito, she would lose to Scholten, if he runs.

[SnowLabrador]

Scholten or Sand would be my pick.

[MT Treasurer]

A more interesting question than "Will Joni Ernst be reelected in 2020?" may be "If Democrats can’t beat her in 2020, when exactly will they?" Certainly not in 2026, which is likely to be a midterm under a Democratic president. The Republican presidential nominee will most likely win Iowa in 2032, and while 2038 could be a midterm under a Republican president, the ship will have most likely sailed by then and Ernst followed in Grassley's footsteps. It’s really now or never for Dems in 2020, and even that race will be an uphill battle for whoever they nominate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is certainly moving to the middle and moderating her image.  She is associating herself with Capito, who unlike Collins, was unaffected by voting for Kavanaugh.

We need polling to see if she is vulnerable

[Pericles]

A more interesting question than "Will Joni Ernst be reelected in 2020?" may be "If Democrats can’t beat her in 2020, when exactly will they?" Certainly not in 2026, which is likely to be a midterm under a Democratic president. The Republican presidential nominee will most likely win Iowa in 2032, and while 2038 could be a midterm under a Republican president, the ship will have most likely sailed by then and Ernst followed in Grassley's footsteps. It’s really now or never for Dems in 2020, and even that race will be an uphill battle for whoever they nominate.

Possibly, given Iowa's trend to the GOP, but predicting so far out into the future is a recipe for disaster. In 2014 Iowa was considered a Democratic-leaning state, so things change a lot in 6 years, and Democrats could even win the seat by a fluke. Does she even want to be a lifer like Grassley? It is extremely foolish to make certain predictions for 6 or 12 or 18 years into the future, it's hard enough for Atlas posters to make accurate predictions about events 24 hours into the future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She may be defeated under right circumstances. Should Scholten or Vilsack run she will be defeated. But, she's making things tough for them by moderating her image.

[izixs]

How to beast Ernst:
1. Don't nominate terrible candidates like Vilsack. He may have the institutional backing, but him even getting elected governor was a fluke given how poorly he managed things while he was such. (note: I grew up in Iowa and didn't leave until he had demonstrated how groan worthy his priorities were)
2. Get an exciting candidate that can excite the base, push for economic opportunity for Iowa (and frame their campaign around that sort of thing), who is friendly to agricultural interests (if you love or hate such things is irrelevant, this is still Iowa), and who represents someone who was tempted to leave the state (as many young people do) but stayed because they just so gosh darn love Iowa. That last one will play well with the long running idea that there is a serious brain drain in the state because there's nothing for most in the state unless you're into agriculture, insurance, or politics. And it gives the candidate a leverage that the implications would be 'if you don't elect me, I'll leave just like all the other young folks...'. Cheap perhaps, but very workable.
3. Poke so many holes in Ernst's record. She's not anything remotely moderate. And if the dems in Iowa don't start working that angle asap she will be quite able to be a lifer like Grassley (curse his name!) who gets away constantly with the golly gee bs to keep getting elected. And Iowa really deserves someone who's more honest than either of those yahoos.
4. Don't just campaign in the big cities. Yes, do that, but there are a lot of small and medium towns across the state that need a little love and gotv efforts. Iowa is not a state where simply winning the populous counties will get you over the top, you need broad support which means either winning or keeping close the rule areas in the eastern half of the state, being competitive in the south west, and keeping it from being a ridiculous blow out in the north west. Play broad.
5. Iowa Public TV is your friend.
6. Figure out how the successful campaigns of 2018 worked and take all the good ideas from them.
7. Don't be afraid to drop an anvil. Even if its on another Republican who is not up for election. Iowa is a place where the long game is important. And a losing campaign now can still result in substantial wins down the road if damage is done to enough of the other party. The Republicans already figured this out, but the Democrats have been slow to go all in.

[MT Treasurer]

More retail politics by Ernst.

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Reynolds won Hardin by 24% and Boone by 2%.

[Brittain33]

UTJE is getting divorced. If her divorce filings are true, which you never know, her husband had a really difficult time with her career success and made it difficult for her.

She also says that she turned down Trump’s offer to make her VP nominee.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/22/joni-ernst-donald-trump-vice-president-turned-down