Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I don't want to go too far down a rabbit hole but this does look SUPER suspect. There's no way every single county moved *somewhat* to the Dems, yet that one county did not move an inch.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1068338084394090498

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, it seems kind of irrelevant at this point if the fraud changed the outcome of the election. If there was even an ounce of fraud, ballot switching, vote totals changing, etc., then the entire election should be null and void.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone who is trying to deny that there was voter fraud... Is blatantly just giving hackish spin at this point. 

Now whether or not Harris knew who he was hiring... and whether or not the Primary or the General where swayed by the Fraudulent Absentee Votes (and likely Fraudulent destroying of absentee votes)... Well these are separate questions to be debated.

But at this point- given the stats from both 2016, and 2018 primary, and 2018 general ... and also the affidavits from locals... the question of was there clear voter fraud---> is not a debatable point.  The answer to anyone who has looked at the information and who is not being a hack... is Yes. 

I think we should call it "election fraud though" -- to me, voter fraud would say that the voters were the culprits here, but that's not the case.

It's funny to me though that the GOP is the one crying about voter fraud or any type of fraud here and there, and yet the ones who actually committed the fraud in the first instance in decades are.... the GOP.

And to someone else's point, it is strange that this story is pretty massive but is not really getting airtime. Though I guess they're just waiting to get official word on what exactly happened before really giving it a lot of play.

[wbrocks67]

The EV looks slightly better for Dems than 2018.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1171377842908782593

[wbrocks67]

Sad that McCready lost, but losing by 2 in a Trump +12 district without a national 'blue wave' shows that the GOP & Trump are still severely in trouble. Especially considering that McCready IMPROVED in suburban Mecklenberg County despite doing worse everywhere else.

[wbrocks67]

I have to say though, I know McCready wanted to focus on the issues, and this is kind of hindsight, but it is rather shocking that he didn't focus on either the bathroom bill or the fraud of the last election.

It's also shocking to me that voters in this district would give this to the GOP after they literally cheated last time.

[wbrocks67]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know how many of you can try to spin this into a good night dor the Democrats. $6M spent so you can lose by more than you lost in 2018 (McCready) and to have lost more ground in almost the entire district says to me that the Republicans have made an improvement over 2018. Also in NC-03, Muephy outperformed Trump's margins. This election night told me that some of the swing voters that voted against the GOP in 2018 have shifted back to the GOP as of now. Also, North Carolina showed us that many of the areas where Trump managed to help shift margins in 2016 definitely were shifted again. Robeson, Anson, Bladen, and Richmond counties all looked good compared to pre-2012 still for the GOP. Just my take.

It's a good night because Trump won this by 12% in 2016, and by the end of provisionals, McCready will likely have only lost by 1.5%, compared to 0.4% in 2018, so nearly the same result. Not to mention that he did even better in the suburbs, which will continue to spell trouble for Trump and the GOP in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

After looking at the 2016 map, I'm kinda shocked that the Dem doesn't do even better than Mecklenberg County - Hillary won it by 30% in 2016, so kinda surprised McCready only won by 9% and 12% in 2016 and 2018. The fact that it's trending BLUER on the local level means Trump is probably in for a world of hurt in that county in 2020.

Most of Mecklenberg is in the 12th district, not the 9th.
Hillary won the portion of the county in the 12th district by 40 points, but lost the portion in the 9th by 3 points.

Oh wow, that makes McCready's totals even more impressive there.

[wbrocks67]

The fact that WI-07 overperformed by 7% compared to 2018's blue wave year is notable, even given the circumstances.

Can't really draw any official conclusions on CA-25 until the final #s come in