RIP CAGOP

[OSR stands with Israel]

Amazing how this is the result of an Independent Commission.

Gerrymandering cannot correct for fundamental demographic implosion, it can only shift stuff at the edges.

The only thing that comes close to what has happened in California over the last thirty years, is what happened to the MA GOP in the 1940's - 1970's.

What About Texas Dems from 1974-1998

[lfromnj]

Amazing how this is the result of an Independent Commission.

Gerrymandering cannot correct for fundamental demographic implosion, it can only shift stuff at the edges.

The only thing that comes close to what has happened in California over the last thirty years, is what happened to the MA GOP in the 1940's - 1970's.

What About Texas Dems from 1974-1998

id go with 04 because they still held a majority of the house delegation until then.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I was speaking strictly in terms of Republicans, precisely because for the Democrats you can throw almost any number of Southern states on the list.

[fluffypanther19]

its honestly incredible how the CAGOP has been annihilated in the state. CA is basically a one-party state and could be like that for awhile.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Putinbot Nunes could be next to go down in 2020.

[Politician]

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Putinbot Nunes could be next to go down in 2020.

And Criminal Duncan Hunter if he runs and wins the primary (good chance).

[lfromnj]

The funny thing is that they haven't reached rock bottom.  They can lose more seats in 2020! 

Here's an evil idea:  make all universities and public colleges tuition free only in the 7 districts held by a Republican.  The liberal students who would move to those districts could give us a 53-0 lol

Putinbot Nunes could be next to go down in 2020.

Yeah its trending d and only trump plus 9.Nunes isn't in a titanium r district like Mccarthy.. mcarthy seeing his fellow reps disappear must be torture

[I’m not Stu]

Democrats now regularly win the white vote in statewide elections. Mitt Romney was the last GOP Presidential nominee to win California whites. Not counting independent Steve Poizner, Neel Kashkari in 2014 was likely the last Republican to whites statewide.

[Frodo]

As goes California...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

As goes California...

...so goes the sunbelt.

[Suburbia]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

[lfromnj]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

[lfromnj]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.

The point is minorities will always be heavily Democratic and they're growing. America was still very white in 08 and 10. What are you not getting here?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Either Republicans get blown out and are a permanent minority party, or they drop the anti intellectualism, white nationalism and randianism to adapt and compete. Either way , Liberalism wins.

[OSR stands with Israel]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.

Thats a really bad example because the GOP were shut out of power for 20 years and 18/20 years were with Dem Trifectas.

Plus the GOP died in all but name only as the GOP which returned was basically a totally different party than the one that was thrown out of power in 1932 and the 1920s version of the GOP really didnt come back until arguably this decade(The Reagan and Bush GOP had more in common with the Eisenhower one than the 1920s one)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

They won't for a while. Let's not pretend you will see a Democratic Party super-dominance. The dems will implode and a newer GOP conservative party will come back sooner than later.

You will see a minority GOP president.

This is unpeak bronz because for once he is right. There is no such thing as a permanent majority in politics.

I'm sorry if it seemed I implied there was never going to be a Conservative party again. I meant to say the current GOP can't rely on their white male base to win elections much longer and they should either adapt or collapse.

And how is Bronz being right by saying the Dems will implode for no stated reason?

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.

Thats a really bad example because the GOP were shut out of power for 20 years and 18/20 years were with Dem Trifectas.

Plus the GOP died in all but name only as the GOP which returned was basically a totally different party than the one that was thrown out of power in 1932 and the 1920s version of the GOP really didnt come back until arguably this decade(The Reagan and Bush GOP had more in common with the Eisenhower one than the 1920s one)

[Virginiá]

because recession are part of the buisiness cycle and will be blamed on them. It looked like dems would be a permanent majority in 08 and they collapsed in 2010. Even after 36 it looked like dems would be a permanent majority yet by 52 reps had a trifecta.

Aside from what OSR said, this doesn't seem like an accurate representation of the GOP's reality post-Depression. Of the 64 years between 1930 and 1994, they held the House for a combined 4 years. The Senate for 12. A person living at the tail end of that reign should be forgiven for calling the GOP a permanent minority party, imo. Given that the time period you stated came after an incredibly tumultuous 20 years of a Democratic White House, it's not surprising that their grip on power was not absolute.

Also I find it's better to just interpret the word "permanent" as an exaggeration. There are no truly permanent majority parties. Just parties that maintain a strong hold on power for a long time. Possibly generations, but not forever.

Also, fwiw, there is this book that was tragically published in 1994 :

[The Mikado]

I think that, for whatever reason, people still operate as if really minor House shifts like we saw every election from 1996-2004 are the norm and big waves are the exception. There's a lot more push and pull on a more regular basis than there used to be.

If anything, the oddity is the super-minor shifts of the 1990s, and the super-small majorities of the Gingrich/Hastert years in the House.

2000's election produced a House that was 221 R, 214 D. 1998's produced one that was 227 R, 208 D. No Congress in the last decade has been anywhere near that closely split.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The point is minorities will always be heavily Democratic

The defintion of whose a minority changes as the majority gets supplanted. Nobody today considers Irish Catholics or Italians Catholics minorities since both Catholicism and their ethnic heritage as become mainstream in America. And while even today they vote to the left of most white groups, they’ve definitely shifted Republican over decades as they assimilated and accumulated wealth and social status. Margins are key.

But yes the GOP do have a short and medium term demographic problem.

[IceSpear]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

Good lord, STOP already. The GOP has survived far worse than this. Just 10 years ago Dems had like 260 House seats, 60 Senate seats, and the presidency. Not to mention tiny little things like the Great Depression and Watergate...

[fluffypanther19]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

Good lord, STOP already. The GOP has survived far worse than this. Just 10 years ago Dems had like 260 House seats, 60 Senate seats, and the presidency. Not to mention tiny little things like the Great Depression and Watergate...

seriously. for a bunch of political nerds, people here have very short term memories

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As goes California...

Makes sense. The GOP can't survive the demographic changes. It's only a matter of time before they collapse completely.

Good lord, STOP already. The GOP has survived far worse than this. Just 10 years ago Dems had like 260 House seats, 60 Senate seats, and the presidency. Not to mention tiny little things like the Great Depression and Watergate...

As if the GOP under Trumpism can adapt to demographic changes. The country will be the most ethnic it's ever been. I don't see anything wrong with what I said.