Should Trump contest Illinois?
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Question: Yes or no
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Total Voters: 95

Author Topic: Should Trump contest Illinois?  (Read 1241 times)
Woody
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« on: November 24, 2018, 03:57:11 PM »
?
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2018, 03:58:17 PM »
Yes, he should waste his time in a Safe D state.
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Skunk
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2018, 03:58:32 PM »
Definitely. He should spend as much money and time there as possible.
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History505
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2018, 03:59:12 PM »
Lol.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2018, 04:40:47 PM »
Romney tried it and it failed
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2018, 04:55:22 PM »
Quote from: West Virginia Hick on November 24, 2018, 03:58:17 PM
Yes, he should waste his time in a Safe D state.
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InheritTheWind
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2018, 04:56:01 PM »
Yes he should campaign exclusively in Chicago
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2018, 04:59:36 PM »
yeah i mean trend r midwest means il is leans d at best tbh
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Grassroots
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2018, 05:44:34 PM »
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA WHAT?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2018, 07:14:37 PM »
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2018, 07:59:37 PM »
He has a very narrow window of opportunity for winning the 2020 election. At this time I see  Michigan  and Pennsylvania more 'lost' than Wisconsin and Iowa (the two states usually vote together, and either one of Iowa and Wisconsin basically wins for the Democrat with either 272 or 278 electoral votes. Picking off New Hampshire also wreaks havoc on the Democratic nominee. No Democratic nominee for President has won without winning New Hampshire since 1976, and I expect that to hold in 2020.

Trump will have to spend 20 points on the Kill and 80 on defense.  That corresponds to the number of electoral votes of Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4) together. It is safe to assign points for the Kill as the electoral voters of those three states and concede Michigan, Pennsylvania (costly media markets) and anything else that Trump barely lost.  He's not going to win Minnesota while losing Wisconsin, and he can win Nevada but still lose the election.

He has far too much to defend to try making the Kill anywhere other than Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. That leaves 80 for defense, and he will need it all. If he makes a quixotic bid for Michigan or Pennsylvania he might get blindsided by Florida.

Florida kills his prospect of a second term if he loses the state. Arizona is next-closest, and those two states combine for 40 electoral votes. Then North Carolina, at 15. Each electoral vote of each state is as important as any one of those in the other two states, and to those states I would have to allot 55 points corresponding to their electoral votes:
 
Florida 29
Arizona 11
North Carolina 15.

That leaves ME-02 (forget it!), NE-02 (to reach western Iowa he will need to use Nebraska media, so that is a bonus from allocating resources to Iowa) to which I would add no additional resources.

Does anyone want to allocate 25 points to Ohio, Georgia, and Texas? Let's put it this way: if he is at risk of losing Texas he has lost anyway because Texas straddles the 400th electoral vote for a Democratic nominee, as it has since 1984.  Likewise, if he is losing Georgia, he is losing North Carolina.  18 points go to Ohio, and Montana isn't looking so great for him. The remaining 4? He may need to defend Utah from a Third-Party or independent conservative alternative in the event that Utah Democrats decide that their nominee for President cannot win. Ouch!

In summary, 

Defense:

FL 29
AZ 11
NC 15
OH 18
MT 3
UT 4

The Kill:

WI 10
IA 6
NH 4

He can forget Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Trump wins Illinois and Washington around 400 electoral votes for the Republican, and we all know that that is not going to happen except in a rigged election.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2018, 07:59:48 PM »
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2018, 10:56:44 PM »
Yes absolutely.
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ShamDam
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« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2018, 02:21:46 AM »
Yes and the Democrat should contest Wyoming because we’re doing so well in neighboring Colorado and Nevada
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President Johnson
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« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2018, 10:46:19 AM »
Yes, let him waste as much money and ressources as possible.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2018, 12:25:04 PM »
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2018, 01:25:37 PM »
I mean, would it really be more of a waste of time/money than contesting VA, a state many people still consider "competitive"?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2018, 02:54:52 PM »
Please do!
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SN2903
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« Reply #18 on: November 26, 2018, 01:17:25 PM »
No.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: November 26, 2018, 02:26:00 PM »
No. Here are the states he should probably spend the most time and resources in, the darkest red being very high and the lowest red being low and close to nothing everywhere else.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/K16rk

In Colorado, Gardner is best off if Trump doesn't campaign for him.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #20 on: November 26, 2018, 03:19:10 PM »
No, its one of the few states he should leave alone
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #21 on: November 26, 2018, 04:04:58 PM »
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #22 on: November 26, 2018, 05:37:19 PM »
Quote from: InheritTheWind on November 24, 2018, 04:56:01 PM
Yes he should campaign exclusively in Chicago
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #23 on: November 28, 2018, 08:18:28 AM »
lol

IL actually swung D in 2016 despite the 2012 Dem being from IL
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: November 28, 2018, 08:44:00 AM »
No, Collar Counties along with Cook metro are Democratic now
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