AZ-Sen/Gov: New Poll.

[Moooooo]

Arizona State Univ. 10/20-23.
MoE 5% (No trend lines.)  Sample size: 385 registered voters

Senate
Kyl (R) 50
Pederson (D) 28

Governor
Napolitano (D) 54
Goldwater (R) 22

Napolitano (D) 58
Greene (R) 16

Bush approval ratings
Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Kyl's lead comes largely from strong support among the conservative wing of the Republican Party and the fact that one-in-five (21 percent) Democrats are crossing over to support Kyl. Merrill points out that, " Both of these candidates will be well financed and will run aggressive campaigns. The challenge for Pederson will be to give voters a reason to desert a strong social conservative who is high in the Senate's Republican leadership."

[Alcon]

Arizona State University has a rather poor record.

[Jake]

Pitiful sample, but good numbers. Neither incumbent is going anywhere.

[Moooooo]

I saw a poll about a month or so ago that had Goldwater and Napolitano running neck and neck.  Think it was an outlier or do voters believe they're voting for his deceased uncle?

[TheresNoMoney]

My guess is that both this poll and the Zogby poll are off. The sample size in this poll is too small, and supposedly this guy has a bad track record.

For the record, I still expect Kyl to beat Pederson and I still expect the race to be within 10%.

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, I still expect Kyl to beat Pederson and I still expect the race to be within 10%.

Hmmm...did you expect Utah to be within 10% during the Presidential election last year?

[TheresNoMoney]

No.

[Keystone Phil]

No.

Shocking.

[Sarnstrom]

Rasmussen Reports poll, December 15, 500 likely voters, MoE ± 4.5%:

Kyl (R): 50%
Pederson (D): 30%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Arizona%20Senate.htm

[True Democrat]

Although 50% isn't great, I still expect Kyl to get anywhere from 58% with bad Bush numbers and a bad campaign to as high as 65%.

[nini2287]

Both poll numbers seem reasonably accurate.  I expect Kyl to win by about 12 in the general and Napotolino by about 16.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Arizona State Univ. 10/20-23.
MoE 5% (No trend lines.)  Sample size: 385 registered voters

Senate
Kyl (R) 50
Pederson (D) 28

Governor
Napolitano (D) 54
Goldwater (R) 22

Napolitano (D) 58
Greene (R) 16

Bush approval ratings
Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Kyl's lead comes largely from strong support among the conservative wing of the Republican Party and the fact that one-in-five (21 percent) Democrats are crossing over to support Kyl. Merrill points out that, " Both of these candidates will be well financed and will run aggressive campaigns. The challenge for Pederson will be to give voters a reason to desert a strong social conservative who is high in the Senate's Republican leadership."

The 'crank' poll has historically been highly inaccurate.

Generally they have overstated Democrat support and understated Republican support.

Their polls have typically been too small.

I figure Kyl will get between 56 - 64 per cent of the vote, depending upon a number of factors.

Pederson will get between 32 - 40 per cent of the vote, again depending upon a number of factors.

A factor not yet expressed is Napolitano's opposition to the border fence (which is likey to anger a lot of Pinto Democrats), but which is not yet generally known.

Also, if the Marriage measure is on the ballot, this will place Napolitano in a rather interesting position.

[Alcon]

I still don't trust anything from ASU.  Their Presidential polls consisted of always-uncollaborated Kerry successes with one or two random overstatements of Bush's victory.

Not that any pollster did all that hot last year in Arizona.  ASU and Rasmussen (doing a poll for the Libertarians) understated Bush's victory by 6 points; whoever Market Solutions is understated it by 4; and SurveyUSA overstated it by 4.

Not only that, but ASU constantly flips between registered voters, likely voters, and adult voters for no good reason.  Lord, I hate that pollster.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alcon,

This is part of the reason it is called the 'Crank' poll.

The occasional NAU poll has a fraction of the money, and gets more accurate results.

One of the reasons so many pollsters 'get it wrong' in Arizona is they do not allow for the high degree of mobility, and are consistently oversampling Democrat areas.

Some private pollsters know better.

[Alcon]

Alcon,

This is part of the reason it is called the 'Crank' poll.

The occasional NAU poll has a fraction of the money, and gets more accurate results.

One of the reasons so many pollsters 'get it wrong' in Arizona is they do not allow for the high degree of mobility, and are consistently oversampling Democrat areas.

Some private pollsters know better.

What mistakes are the ridiculously pro-Bush polls making?

[MarkWarner08]

This race will tighten depending on Pederson's willingness to spend his substantial fortune. If he spends under $5 million, this race won't be close.

If Bush is polling in the 35%-40% range come November and Pederson spends $10 million and the Democrats present a coherent agenda that sways the American public, Pederson will come close and could win.  It's also possible that Bush's approval could be in the 50's and the GOP could be talking 60 Seats.

Politics is so volatile, anything's possible. Just don't count out Jim Pederson. He rebuilt the Arizona Democratic Party and is a solid dark horse candidate ala Brian Schweitzer in 2000.

[GOP = Terrorists]

If Pederson spends 5 mil it will be very very close.  MoE either way.

[Alcon]

This race will tighten depending on Pederson's willingness to spend his substantial fortune. If he spends under $5 million, this race won't be close.

If Bush is polling in the 35%-40% range come November and Pederson spends $10 million and the Democrats present a coherent agenda that sways the American public, Pederson will come close and could win.  It's also possible that Bush's approval could be in the 50's and the GOP could be talking 60 Seats.

Politics is so volatile, anything's possible. Just don't count out Jim Pederson. He rebuilt the Arizona Democratic Party and is a solid dark horse candidate ala Brian Schweitzer in 2000.

Welcome to the Forum!

You might want to consider adding an avatar in your profile to identify state and party.

[MarkWarner08]

This race will tighten depending on Pederson's willingness to spend his substantial fortune. If he spends under $5 million, this race won't be close.

If Bush is polling in the 35%-40% range come November and Pederson spends $10 million and the Democrats present a coherent agenda that sways the American public, Pederson will come close and could win.  It's also possible that Bush's approval could be in the 50's and the GOP could be talking 60 Seats.

Politics is so volatile, anything's possible. Just don't count out Jim Pederson. He rebuilt the Arizona Democratic Party and is a solid dark horse candidate ala Brian Schweitzer in 2000.

Welcome to the Forum!

You might want to consider adding an avatar in your profile to identify state and party.

Thanks for the welcome. I'll go put up my party and state tomorrow.

[Gustaf]

It's comical that people thought this seat was in play...why would a reasonably popular conservative incumbent in a conservative state not get reelected?

[Sarnstrom]

Pederson has already stated that he is spending $15 Million of his own money on this campaign and no more.

[TheresNoMoney]

Pederson has already stated that he is spending $15 Million of his own money on this campaign and no more.

When did he say that?

From what I read, he was only going to spend $1 million or so of his own money.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alcon,

This is part of the reason it is called the 'Crank' poll.

The occasional NAU poll has a fraction of the money, and gets more accurate results.

One of the reasons so many pollsters 'get it wrong' in Arizona is they do not allow for the high degree of mobility, and are consistently oversampling Democrat areas.

Some private pollsters know better.

What mistakes are the ridiculously pro-Bush polls making?

Please specify the specific polls to why you are refering.

[CARLHAYDEN]

This race will tighten depending on Pederson's willingness to spend his substantial fortune. If he spends under $5 million, this race won't be close.

If Bush is polling in the 35%-40% range come November and Pederson spends $10 million and the Democrats present a coherent agenda that sways the American public, Pederson will come close and could win.  It's also possible that Bush's approval could be in the 50's and the GOP could be talking 60 Seats.

Politics is so volatile, anything's possible. Just don't count out Jim Pederson. He rebuilt the Arizona Democratic Party and is a solid dark horse candidate ala Brian Schweitzer in 2000.

Welcome to the forum.

As to your enthusiasm for Pederson and how wonderful you believe he performed as state chairman, I suggest you check the makeup of the state legislature.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If Pederson spends 5 mil it will be very very close.  MoE either way.

You are operating under the misimpression that expenditures equals votes.

While adequate funding is of course necessary, beyond such minimums, money has limited utility in obtaining votes.