Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

Completely different things you're trying to compare here, but ok.

[Politician]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

[ON Progressive]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

Remember when Solid had this seat at Safe R? LMAO.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Mia Love is the Republican version of Dan Maffei.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1065033957035642885

[lfromnj]

Mia Love is the Republican version of Dan Maffei.

yeah either that or Tenney.

[Alabama_Indy10]

AP called it for McAdams

Ehh that’s fine with me. McAdams doesn’t seem bad.

[lfromnj]

AP called it for McAdams

Ehh that’s fine with me. McAdams doesn’t seem bad.

yeah utah has a lot of good politicians in general on both sides.

[IceSpear]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

Completely different things you're trying to compare here, but ok.

No it isn't. It's Atlas Dems being hacks and insisting they can win an unwinnable race, exactly the same thing. And if I recall correctly, the same two people in this thread saying Peterson isn't DOA were the same people insisting Bredesen still had a chance until the bitter end. So it only makes the comparison even more fitting.

Just accept Peterson is gone. It's one seat, who cares? I know it annoys Atlas D hacks, but it is indeed possible for Republicans to win elections, especially in places where Trump did/will landslide by 30+ points.

[OneJ]

Also, Klobuchar won MN-07 by just a tenth and Smith lost this district by double digits. In fact, Smith and Klobuchar did better in MN-01 and MN-08. Time is definitely running out for the Dems there, sadly.

[lfromnj]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

Completely different things you're trying to compare here, but ok.

No it isn't. It's Atlas Dems being hacks and insisting they can win an unwinnable race, exactly the same thing. And if I recall correctly, the same two people in this thread saying Peterson isn't DOA were the same people insisting Bredesen still had a chance until the bitter end. So it only makes the comparison even more fitting.

Just accept Peterson is gone. It's one seat, who cares? I know it annoys Atlas D hacks, but it is indeed possible for Republicans to win elections, especially in places where Trump did/will landslide by 30+ points.

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

[Landslide Lyndon]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

[lfromnj]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

and 94 was a decent economy afaik.  Trump can pivot to the center. He has to push the criminal justice reform and thats a good bipartisan victory for all.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hill might end up overperforimg Clinton by quite an impressive margin-

[Landslide Lyndon]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

and 94 was a decent economy afaik.  Trump can pivot to the center. He has to push the criminal justice reform and thats a good bipartisan victory for all.

No, he can't. The guy thinks the midterms were a personal triumph. Why would he change his tune?

[Zaybay]

this entire forum already thinks 2020 is a wave ignoring 2010 2012 94 96 82 84(82 is actually the closest election to this with the same senate class and a house flip and 54 and 56.) they think because muh trump backlash its gonna be a wave again when we know the fact that if trump is mostly innocent then its better that he doesn't have the house than a narrow and useless house majority.

1982 and 2010 were wave elections because of the bad economy. Trump and the Republicans on the contrary enjoyed the best economy in almost 20 years and still got clobbered. And it can only get worse the next two years.

and 94 was a decent economy afaik.  Trump can pivot to the center. He has to push the criminal justice reform and thats a good bipartisan victory for all.

Thats not at all how politics work, at least not now. Trump is hated by the Democrats, he isnt getting their votes. He is hated by a majority of Indies, he is not getting their votes. He cant just pivot to the center and suddenly everyone likes him and his approval goes up to the high 50s, people dont work like that.

Besides, this midterm should have been proof that it doesnt work like that. Moderate Republicans lost, Pro-Trump Democrats lost. Voters are stupid, but they arent that stupid.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Any news about Cox?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any news about Cox?

According to https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article221926680.html, Kern won't have another update until Monday.  No idea about the other counties.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Any news about Cox?

According to https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article221926680.html, Kern won't have another update until Monday.  No idea about the other counties.

Tulare updated a whole seven votes, with Valadao gaining one.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Any news about Cox?

According to https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article221926680.html, Kern won't have another update until Monday.  No idea about the other counties.

Wow... they're taking forever to count the votes.  Thanks for letting me know.

[Xing]

I wouldn't quite call MN-07 Safe R unless Peterson retires, but he probably needs 2020 to be very good for Democrats to survive. Probably at least Lean R, if not Likely R.

Anyway, in CA-21 we got... 7 more votes from Tulare. I really hope we get something from Fresno, since that's pretty much where this race will be decided.

[Tintrlvr]

I wouldn't quite call MN-07 Safe R unless Peterson retires, but he probably needs 2020 to be very good for Democrats to survive. Probably at least Lean R, if not Likely R.

Anyway, in CA-21 we got... 7 more votes from Tulare. I really hope we get something from Fresno, since that's pretty much where this race will be decided.

Hey, that 1 net vote for Valadao might decide the race!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Per the Fresno County Clerk's website, next update will be tomorrow at 3 PM PST

[Beet]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YMPAH67f4o

100%.
To think that I wrote this seat off once Romney announced.
It’s crazy to think that Love managed to lose a heavily-gerrymanderred R-leaning seat as many times as she won it.
Almost as weird as the fact that both times coincided with Mitt ‘King of Utah’ Romney’s presence on the ballot. Maybe there’s a quiet anti-Mitt vote in Salt Lake?

If she were a Dem, you guys would be screaming about how racist Utah is for not voting for her. I, for one, am not celebrating that the only black Republican in the House has lost, someone who was mocked by Trump for opposing his bigotry. Yeah, I know we don't need more Republicans and all, and if a future piece of legislation or big vote comes down to one Congressman named McAdams, it might be a good thing, but somehow I doubt it.