Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[MAINEiac4434]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

thats why the democrat outraised the republican.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/texas/2/

Outraised by a couple thousand dollars? I'm talking about D-Trip and PAC help, of which what's his name got none. This just means Houston lawyers and real estate agents were especially generous to suburban Democrats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

[lfromnj]

Nobody is mentioning that we should target Crenshaw, the GOP's new Golden Boy? He massively underperformed.

By what metric did he massively underperform? If he just underperformed relative to PVI/Romney, that wouldn't be particularly remarkable, since that was true all over suburban TX. Plus, this was an open seat, so in some ways it was not that different from TX-03, where the R performance was also pretty lackluster by past standards.

The thing I would want to look at are the Beto-Cruz numbers in TX-02. How much, if at all, did Crenshaw overperform Cruz by? But I haven't seen them anywhere yet.

A young, attractive, disabled GOP veteran with a moderate streak whom the media was absolutely fellating following the Pete Davidson debacle got only 52% of the vote in a Republican district against an anonymous Democrat receiving no outside help. By what measure did he not underperform?

thats why the democrat outraised the republican.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/texas/2/

Outraised by a couple thousand dollars? I'm talking about D-Trip and PAC help, of which what's his name got none. This just means Houston lawyers and real estate agents were especially generous to suburban Democrats.

ok then
Beto raisde 70 million and got more media attention than any candidate and still lost
He did only 6 points better than Clinton in a D+8 year when 2016 was a D+2 year. C
Clearly Beto underperformed.

[Beet]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

[lfromnj]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

ah thats why an open trump seat by +8 thats heavily suburban during a burb stomping year in a state with a strong statewide ticket voted for Crenshaw by 8 points

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1065019742140850176

Mia Love gained a handful of votes from the final absentees from Utah and Salt Lake, but it wasn't enough for her. Ben McAdams wins by just shy of 700 votes, and barely enough to avoid a recount (though I doubt a recount would change a 700-vote margin in a House race.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Canvassing is over. McAdams leads by 694 votes, or .26% which is outside the margin for a mandatory recount. He has won.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

[lfromnj]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it will be either 234 or 235, with CA-21 the only seat still hanging in the balance.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

He underperformed Ted Poe's 2016 margin by 17 points and he's holding a district that is trending Democrat. I personally think he's going to win in 2020, but the possibility of him losing is high.

[lfromnj]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

He underperformed Ted Poe's 2016 margin by 17 points and he's holding a district that is trending Democrat. I personally think he's going to win in 2020, but the possibility of him losing is high.

Coz obviously 2020 is gonna be a wave.
hack.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

He underperformed Ted Poe's 2016 margin by 17 points and he's holding a district that is trending Democrat. I personally think he's going to win in 2020, but the possibility of him losing is high.

Coz obviously 2020 is gonna be a wave.
hack.

Ok?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Todd Litton over-performed, and this district wasn't even supposed to be competitive. Crenshaw reminds me of Will Hurd a little.

Crenshaw is massively overrated. He may be good looking and a veteran, but he is be no means a safe incumbent in 2020. He's gone if the GOP continues to tank in the suburbs.

LOL
It would literally take a massive wave with a god tier candidate to take him out in 2020.
Trump will win this district in 2020 barring the wave and Crenshaw > Trump so crenshaw also wins.

He underperformed Ted Poe's 2016 margin by 17 points and he's holding a district that is trending Democrat. I personally think he's going to win in 2020, but the possibility of him losing is high.

Coz obviously 2020 is gonna be a wave.
hack.

Um, unless Trump gets a personality transplant it will probably be.

[Tintrlvr]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

[lfromnj]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

[Politician]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. I'd actually put the Horn at Tilt D, I'm trusting the suburban shift to hold her up.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Should we expect any CA-21 drops tonight?

[Skill and Chance]

Occurred to me that Oklahoma has constitutional amendments by voter initiative.  I wonder if there will be an attempt at a redistricting commission for 2020?  Considering it just passed in Utah...

[IceSpear]

FTR, according to DKE OK-05 voted for Drew Edmondson by almost 10 points. So Kendra Horn might not be so vulnerable as many people thought at the beginning.

It only voted for Trump by 13, and I think it will trend further against him in 2020 given that it is an urban district and what happened nationally this year. My guess is that it will only vote for Trump by around 7-9 points in 2020 if the Presidential election is very close. In which case Horn should have a good chance of holding out. (May depend to some degree on whether Stitt manages to turn things around for the OK GOP - but I rather doubt he will.)

Horn is a vastly underrated candidate here at Atlas. As long as OKC continues trending Democrat, that seat will get bluer.

Horn starts at tilt R for 2020 but yeah she isn't DOA like peterson.

Peterson isn't DOA. He's an underdog but can still win if Democrats do very well and he actually tries to.

Just like Bredesen wasn't DOA?

Peterson isn't going to outperform the Democratic nominee by 30+ points again, lol. He's DOA. Feel free to quote this post in 2 years if I'm wrong, but I won't be.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You are out of your element "dude"...

Reality is that "pro-life" doesn't amount to crap in West Coast and Mountain West CDs in these types of districts....

Politics and perceptions regarding "Gun rights" tend to be more powerful cultural motifs than "Gods and Gays"....

Mountain West Metro Area Country are places that are socially Libertarian, Free Market Neo-Liberals, Anti-War / Interventionists that are yearning to break free of the Trumpista stronghold and dominance over the modern Republican Party...

In OR CD-04, CD-02, and even potentially CD-05 , getting rid of the perception of a Democratic Party "War on Guns", will likely create significant increases in DEM Party support come 2020, where the this has become a much greater wedge issue than religion or environmental politics in my part of Oregon....

We like our guns and will use them to defend any attempts from the Feds to invade our "Dope Fields", just like we did in the late 1980s / early 1990s at the time of "Operation Ghostdancer", during a massive recession in Oregon where out of work loggers and Mill-Workers started to do what they knew best in Downstate Oregon, which was to take to the woods, go a bit "Robin Hood" at the time of the Reagan Recession....

Although these days are long gone in many parts of Oregon, we have seen the Helicopter Army Formations flying over our communities only a few decades back, at a time where real unemployment in downstate Oregon was >20% under Reagan, and although I am not a Redneck, we will not surrender our weapons again, when it comes to Federal Military Forces attempting to invade our communities, and destroy what little subsistence we had left in communities with high levels of Vietnam Vets that came home from the War, worked in the Mills and the Forests, and then Reagan and Bush Senior declares the "War on Drugs" against Marijuana farmers in downstate Oregon???

A Country Boy Can Survive

I'm going to disagree with your characterization of these districts, particularly the Oregon examples you cite. As someone who grew up in OR-4 (1990s and 2000s), that really doesn't represent the vast majority of people in the district. First off, you have >50% people living in uberliberal Eugene and Corvallis, plus swingy (in a non gun-toting, more CA Central Valley way) Albany. You then have the midwesty Willamette Valley farm towns, and rust beltey Coos Bay. Then you have the 5% of the district living in Oregon's West Virginia in the towns south of Cottage Grove, who won't ever vote Democrat, guns or no guns. The 2nd district is more Arizona-esque, in that Medford and Bend are like Phoenix, and gun control performs well there, and the rural areas won't ever vote for a Democrat regardless of guns, good, or anything else.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

AP called it for McAdams

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1065033426506522624