Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Ogre Mage]

The LA Times has an article about the Democratic sweep of Orange County, CA:

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http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-orange-county-gop-house-20181117-story.html

[Tender Branson]

MidTerm Election Turnout 2018 per Dave Wasserman from Cook thus far

110,506,863 Votes

There are 2M I think to count in CA. Still, that's a pretty INSANE Turnout for a MidTerm.

That's pretty crazy. The turnout is much closer to a typical presidential election than it is to a typical midterm.

2018 estimate: ~113 million
2016: ~129 million
2014: ~78 million
2012: ~122 million
2010: ~87 million
2008: ~123 million
2006: ~81 million

It's up from the previous record-lows, but even with the 49% turnout it is still very low when compared with European state elections, which are comparable with US midterms.

US Presidential elections are comparable with our general elections and there the US is somewhere between 58 and 60% turnout, whereas most important European countries are between 70 and 90% turnout.

In state elections, turnout in Europe is a bit lower in the 60-75% range and in the US it is between 37% and 49% for mid-terms.

So, please do not refer to these mid-terms as having "insane" turnout. It was horribly low in an international context.

[wesmoorenerd]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

??

[Zaybay]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

??

When I looked a week ago, I swear, this website didnt exist.

[lfromnj]

Re: CA-21  Kings seems to be just about done counting votes and Valodao has a 2200 vote lead.  If the counties in the district each make up the same % of the vote they did in 2016, then you would expect Kern to still have about 7500 votes to add and Fresno 3500. 

If there are that many left, Cox is more likely than not to win.

I dont know whether to be happy that we took down the titan that was Valadao, or to be mad that it was TJ Cox to do so.

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

??

When I looked a week ago, I swear, this website didnt exist.

im pretty sure it would as the DCCC did care a bit about this race.

[Torrain]

Update on NY-27

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-11-16/absentee-ballot-count-continues-in-new-york-house-race

[cg41386]

Update on NY-22

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-11-16/absentee-ballot-count-continues-in-new-york-house-race

That’s 27. 22 is in Central NY.

[Torrain]

Update on NY-22

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2018-11-16/absentee-ballot-count-continues-in-new-york-house-race

That’s 27. 22 is in Central NY.

Shoot, my bad. I’ll edit the original post to clarify.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

why would you be mad at TJ cox? what did he do wrong? daring to represent a hispanic district as a white? He took the risk and campaigned when Emilio huertas mom tried to scare everyone else.

Well, simply put, its because he was such a bad candidate, and one who put in little effort into his campaign. He doesnt even have a website. He literally switched to run in this district because it was open. And it will be him to, possibly, unseat a titan of the GOP. Its just, I dont even know.

It takes a titan to unseat a titan. What is this elitist nonsense about websites?

[2016]

CNN finally made 3 Projections in CA for Cisneros, Rouda and Levin bringing the Democratic Total to 232 Seats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CNN finally made 3 Projections in CA for Cisneros, Rouda and Levin bringing the Democratic Total to 232 Seats.

Umm WHAT? They didn’t call the races for Levin and Rouda until now?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I wonder is why CNN still hasn't called NM-2.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What I wonder is why CNN still hasn't called NM-2.

Herrell is trying to challenge the Doña Ana County absentee ballots: https://www.abqjournal.com/1246305/herrell-seeks-to-have-absentee-ballots-impounded.html.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What I wonder is why CNN still hasn't called NM-2.

Herrell is trying to challenge the Doña Ana County absentee ballots: https://www.abqjournal.com/1246305/herrell-seeks-to-have-absentee-ballots-impounded.html.

This is about as realistic an effort as Poliquin's lawsuit against RCV, and yet all the networks have called ME-2.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/nicholaskitchel/status/1063862658628272129

Good riddance to them!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9ausPKEMVk0

That scene has never been more appropriate.

[NOVA Green]

Taking a deeper dive into the UT-CD-'04 numbers in '18 starting with the vote share by place in Salt Lake County 2016 to 2018...



Here is a visual representation... 



As you can see virtually every City within Salt Lake County lost vote share between Nov '16 and Nov '18.

The exception was Millcreek, which gained a whopping +6.8% of the SLC CD '04 Vote share (from 5.3% to 12.1% making it the 3rd largest vote bank, only narrowly behind South Jordan and a few points behind West Jordan.

This is likely a direct result of incorporation from this area from an uninc CDP into a City in December of '16.

It also appears to be one of the main factors as to why this race is so close (we'll get back to that a little later).

Now, let's look at the Registered Voters by Place 2016 to 2018:



Now let's look at that same data in a graphical format:



So what we see here is a massive increase in total registered voters in the CD-04 portion of Salt Lake County, with roughly 26k new registered voters added between Nov '16 and Nov '18....

Almost 19k of these were in Millcreek alone (roughly 70% of new RVs)... South Jordan gained 2k and Herriman gained 3.2k.

Now let's look at the Turnout by Place between the 2016 Presidential Election and 2018 Congressional Election (Based on Friday's Salt Lake County Vote Numbers)...



Here is a graphical version of the same data:



What does this tell us?

Turnout was significantly lower in Bluffdale, Herriman, and South Jordan than the overall turnout gap between these two elections to date...

Turnout was only marginally down in Millcreek, Salt Lake City, West Jordan, and West Valley City.

Although this does not necessarily portend that remaining ballots will skew Republican, it is still noteworthy.

Now, let's look at the raw vote numbers by place and party in the 2016 PRES election vs the 2018 CD-04 election.



Here's a graphical representation:



Let's look a slightly more simplified graph that removes the total vote, in order to make it easier to see how the Democratic Candidate for CD-04 REP increased DEM vs REP raw vote totals just about everywhere, compared to the 2016 Presidential Election.



DEMs gained a net +43.3 votes over HRC, while the PUBs gained a net +22.2k votes over DJT.

Both DEMs and PUBs gained raw votes everywhere, except for Kearns, where the PUBs lost 43 votes between NOV 16 GE and NOV 18 GE.

In terms of NET DEM vs REP gains between '16 and '18, DEMs gained more votes in every municipality compared to PUBs with the exception of Herriman (+76 R).

The net gain numbers that stand for DEMs:

1.) Millcreek: +6k DEM
2.) West Jordan: +2.6k DEM
3.) Murray: + 2.3k DEM
4.) Taylorsville: + 2.0k DEM
5.) West Valley City: +1.8k DEM


ok... I could go on, but I suspect y'all get the picture.

What is most remarkable about these numbers, is that it appears in many places, the Democratic vote gains between 2016 PRES and 2018 CD-04 REP, appears to have occurred as a direct result of McMullin and Gary Johnson voters, voting DEM in 2018....

So now, we need to look at the % of Vote by Place between the Nov '16 PRES election and Nov '18 Congressional election....



Let's look at this in a graphical format, and a stacked chart probably works best here, especially considering the 3rd Party Vote in 2016 out in Salt Lake County...



Wow--- this helps provide a greater context in what appears to be a relative collapse of Republican Party strength, even among voters predisposed to vote for Liberal/Moderate Republicans in the era of Trump, especially among many communities with relatively large Mormon populations.

Something strange is going on here...

Now, in order to understand more fully the impact of the McMullin/ Johnson cross-over voters, as well as potential impacts of population growth within this part of Salt Lake County, we need to look at the % margins and swing by place...



Here is a graph that might perhaps more clearly indicate the numbers from the raw data chart....



So basically DEMs increased raw % share in every community except for Riverton, Herriman, and South Jordan.

DEM swings were most remarkable in Kearns (+21.5% D Swing '16 > '18), South Salt Lake (+ 16.8% DEM swing '16 > '18), Midvale (+16.1% DEM swing '16 > '18), West Valley City / Salt Lake City (+13.3% DEM swing '16 > '18). 

Murray, Sandy, Taylorsville, and Other also saw +10% DEM swings from '16 to '18....

Interestingly enough Millcreek only saw a +5.8% DEM swing between '16 and '18, but the massive increase in new voters added some +6k DEM NET VOTE MARGIN between '16 and '18....

Although the 2018 CD-04 elections in Salt Lake County might well simply be an anomaly, it might also be the "Canary in the Coalmine" when it comes to the future of the Republican Party in Salt Lake County Utah, considering they were effectively slaughtered within the most Republican parts of the County, with a few exceptions.....

Thoughts anyone???

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

[...]

Murray, Sandy, Taylorsville, and Other also saw +10% DEM swings from '16 to '18....

Interestingly enough Millcreek only saw a +5.8% DEM swing between '16 and '18, but the massive increase in new voters added some +6k DEM NET VOTE MARGIN between '16 and '18....

Although the 2018 CD-04 elections in Salt Lake County might well simply be an anomaly, it might also be the "Canary in the Coalmine" when it comes to the future of the Republican Party in Salt Lake County Utah, considering they were effectively slaughtered within the most Republican parts of the County, with a few exceptions.....

Thoughts anyone???

This just seems like further nationwide manifestation of the Democrats' suburban wave. Regardless of region, religion, or skin color, Clinton'16/3rd party'16 Republicans are turning into downballot Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

[...]

Murray, Sandy, Taylorsville, and Other also saw +10% DEM swings from '16 to '18....

Interestingly enough Millcreek only saw a +5.8% DEM swing between '16 and '18, but the massive increase in new voters added some +6k DEM NET VOTE MARGIN between '16 and '18....

Although the 2018 CD-04 elections in Salt Lake County might well simply be an anomaly, it might also be the "Canary in the Coalmine" when it comes to the future of the Republican Party in Salt Lake County Utah, considering they were effectively slaughtered within the most Republican parts of the County, with a few exceptions.....

Thoughts anyone???

This just seems like further nationwide manifestation of the Democrats' suburban wave. Regardless of region, religion, or skin color, Clinton'16/3rd party'16 Republicans are turning into downballot Democrats.

Although, I suspect you are most likely correct in terms of the overall picture, Utah is a bit of a unique State....

Still, ignoring religious identification, and simply looking at some basic data when it comes to education rates and social-demographics within Millcreek, we see the following...

EDUCATION:



AGE:



INCOME:



You might be on to something there, but in the case of Millcreek it appears to be a combination of age (Millennials) + education, even though income doesn't make it appear to be a particularly Upper-Income typical cradle of the # rebellion....    Still stranger things happened in the Southern 'Burbs of Pittsburgh not so long back, but get where you're coming from.   

[Torrain]

COUNTY   NET GAIN FOLLOWING ABSENTEE BALLOT COUNT
Broome   Brindisi     +1,319   
Chenango   Awaiting Results   
Cortland   Brindisi   +207   
Herkimer   Brindisi     +80   
Madison   Brindisi    +324   
Oneida   Awaiting Results   
Oswego   Tenney.   +80   
Tioga   Awaiting Results   
 
Brindisi's lead is currently 3,223 votes.  Outstanding ballots: 5,538

Not sure why the AP is holding out to call this. Maybe waiting for absentee results from the final two counties.

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

[2016]

COUNTY   NET GAIN FOLLOWING ABSENTEE BALLOT COUNT
Broome   Brindisi     +1,319   
Chenango   Awaiting Results   
Cortland   Brindisi   +207   
Herkimer   Brindisi     +80   
Madison   Brindisi    +324   
Oneida   Awaiting Results   
Oswego   Tenney.   +80   
Tioga   Awaiting Results   
 
Brindisi's lead is currently 3,223 votes.  Outstanding ballots: 5,538

Not sure why the AP is holding out to call this. Maybe waiting for absentee results from the final two counties.

CNN has already called the NY-22 Race; They have Brindisi ahead by only 1.827 Votes though.

[Torrain]

CNN has already called the NY-22 Race; They have Brindisi ahead by only 1.827 Votes though.

That's weird, given that they've still got NM-02 out there. I've got no idea how they're making those decisions.

I've been going to NYTimes/AP for calls of individual races, and local news sites for NY22 numbers (the margins I posted are the provisional counts of absentee ballots, that have yet to be certified)

[2016]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

[Zaybay]

BREAKING

Utah County posted new Results for the UT-4 Race and Mia Love now leads by 1516 Votes.

McAdams needs 58.5 of the SLC Provisionals to pass Love.

Yeah, doesnt look like Democrats will win UT-04. At least the commission is passing, so that should make taking the seat easierand also possibly unseating Valadao will mean the Ds still take 39 seats.

Democrats will never ever take that Seat if they don't win it this year. They're certainly won't be getting it in a POTUS Year. And the 2022 MidTerms will only be favorable to Dems if Trump wins; If he loses Republicans will gain most of the Seats back they lost this year.

Well, thats not true. As I said before, if the commission passes, they will have to make a Lean-Likely D seat in SLC county, which would be easily winnable for Ds.