TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 can be a wave election. In 2012, it was a backlash to another Banker, 2020 can be the same.

Just like alot of GOPers are making the same mistake about OH and IA being solid red. TX dont have to vote the same way for Prez as it does for Senate, likewise ME can reelect Collins and Harris win ME.

Harris will be the nominee, not Beto. Martin Heinrich or Sherrod Brown wil be the Veep

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

[Calthrina950]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

[Zaybay]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

1. You are still saying that Cruz was unpopular when every piece of info points to that he wasnt. At all. Stop saying it.

2. Its very easy for a gubernatorial candidate to outrun the senate or house race, especially if they are popular.
Just in 2018: SD, MA, VT, NH, KS, MD, TX, CT, and AZ.

[Calthrina950]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

1. You are still saying that Cruz was unpopular when every piece of info points to that he wasnt. At all. Stop saying it.

2. Its very easy for a gubernatorial candidate to outrun the senate or house race, especially if they are popular.
Just in 2018: SD, MA, VT, NH, KS, MD, TX, CT, and AZ.

Of course, Cruz is still popular among the Republican base, but not necessarily so among independents. And there is a difference between approving of someone in their official capacity and personally approving of them. As to your second point, of course many gubernatorial nominees can run ahead of the federal ticket. But that is not always the case.

[Zaybay]

Calthrina, for some odd reason (cough hackishness cough), seems to believe that Cruz was an exceptionally weak candidate (no evidence), that Lupe Valdez ran a competent campaign (not true), and that only people who voted in midterms can vote in the general election.

Once again, you distort my views. First off, I am very well aware of O'Rourke's campaign skills, and that definitely played a role in the closeness of his loss margin to Cruz. But it was not solely because of O'Rourke alone. He was helped by the national environment and by the dislike of many voters for Cruz, who had been hurt by the 2016 presidential campaign. Second, I am very well aware that Valdez ran a poor campaign, but you can't handwave the 400,000 Abbott-O'Rourke voters just like that. And third, I've emphasized repeatedly that turnout in 2020 will be higher than in 2016, and that is exactly why it will be difficult for Democrats to unseat Cornyn or to beat Trump in the state. Yes, more Democratic voters will come out, but so will more Republican ones, and there are still more Republican voters in Texas, as 2018 showed.

1. You are still saying that Cruz was unpopular when every piece of info points to that he wasnt. At all. Stop saying it.

2. Its very easy for a gubernatorial candidate to outrun the senate or house race, especially if they are popular.
Just in 2018: SD, MA, VT, NH, KS, MD, TX, CT, and AZ.

Of course, Cruz is still popular among the Republican base, but not necessarily so among independents. And there is a difference between approving of someone in their official capacity and personally approving of them. As to your second point, of course many gubernatorial nominees can run ahead of the federal ticket. But that is not always the case.

You can keep saying the same falsehood in different ways, it wont make it true. Polling shows he is popular:
With Rs
With Is
this is backed by numerous polling outfits. He got a close race because of Beto, the Blue Wave, and the fact TX is moving Left, its really that simple.

And, of course, while not every state sees the Guber outrun the state's partisan races, TX obviously was the case.

[LoneStarDem]

Cornyn still wins reelection to 4th term in 2020 & he still has aspirations to become Majority Leader of the United States Senate down the road.

[Skye]

Statement from Joaquín Castro:

[Torrain]

Cornyn still wins reelection to 4th term in 2020 & he still has aspirations to become Majority Leader of the United States Senate down the road.

Eh, I think he'd have a fight on his hands to beat Thune.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn still wins reelection to 4th term in 2020 & he still has aspirations to become Majority Leader of the United States Senate down the road.

Eh, I think he'd have a fight on his hands to beat Thune.

Dems are favoref to win majority im 2022

[LoneStarDem]

Moreover, Cornyn is more entrenched than Cruz is and is much less disliked.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think it’s actually true.

The second part is true because literally no one knows him.
>can't be disliked if no one knows you. Taps head

How can Democrats make up a 200,000 vote deficit? Particularly in a presidential year? And Cruz only won by that narrow of a margin because of his unpopularity. Every other statewide Republican did better than him.

With Beto running for President, this races moves from Tilt D to Tilt D.

What? Texas has not suddenly become a "safe" Democratic state. It is a long way from that.

You're right. How do Democrats, who do well with minorities such as Hispanics, do better in a presidential year, when Hispanic Turnout is usually at its height, compared to a midterm, when minority, especially Hispanic turnout craters? How can Democrats get those 200,000 voters? Its not like TX is a rapidly changing state with a rather obvious population boom in Urban metros with large suburbs that are swinging their way. I have no idea

Also, Cruz wasnt unpopular. All polling data showed him to be rather popular. Margins /=/ popularity, otherwise Bill Nelson would have won by 15 points.

Many of the people who voted for O'Rourke did so because of an intense personal dislike for Cruz. Bear in mind that 400,000 Texans split their tickets between O'Rourke, who lost by 3 points, and Abbott, who won by 13 points. It's very plausible to assume that those Abbott-O'Rourke voters approved of the Governor but disapproved of Cruz. And as I've already said, Cruz ran behind every other statewide Republican; even the controversial Dan Patrick did better than he.

As for your overall argument, polls indicated that Heitkamp, Donnelly, and McCaskill were underwater by Election Day, as was Heller. And they all lost. Manchin's approvals were close to a tie, and Tester was just above water, if I recall correctly, and they both won reelection. Patrick Morrisey's loss was, in part, due to his own extreme disapproval ratings: he was underwater by 20 points. And every incumbent who had a positive approval rating otherwise won reelection.

Alright, first off, you are arguing on a false premise, that Cruz was unpopular. As both Exit Polls showed, along with general polling that was done, his approval was around 55-45, or even sometimes 55-40. Of course, this pales in comparison to Abbots Godlike approval, which sat around 60-30. He was much more popular than Dan Patrick, and Patrick's large margin can highly be attributed to the fact that low-info voters voted for Abbot and his Lt. , not Abbot and Patrick.

Second, if there is any philosophy I subscribe to when it comes to politics, its that popularity is the best indicator of success. But only victoriescan be gleamed by popularity, not margins. Cruz was more popular than Patrick, but both had a positive approval in the state, and they both won. Cruz's margin wasnt because he was more unpopular, but because he was facing Beto, while most Texan Dems didnt know the Dem Lt. facing Patrick.

Anyway, the Ds can definitely make up the ground needed to beat Cornyn, especially since he suffers from Nelson syndrome of being old, boring, and rather unknown to the state. It will take a lot though, especially since Beto is probably not running for the senate seat.

The TX LG down here is elected independently SEPARATELY.

[OneJ]

Statement from Joaquín Castro:

Interesting. He’s no Beto, but I don’t think Castro is a potential candidate to completely overlook.

[Sestak]

Eh Idk about Castro tbh. I’d rather have Hegar.

[OneJ]

Eh Idk about Castro tbh. I’d rather have Hegar.

Agreed.

[Boobs]

Right now I’d say the shadow primary is between Olson and Hegar (with Davis in the mix I guess) vying for the EMILYs List endorsement. I ultimately don’t think Castro will jump in, but the fact that we have so many different viable candidates considering a run is a great sign.

[Brittain33]

Hegar is better representative of the voter and district type we need to flip from R to D for us to have a chance of unseating Cornyn.

[Tekken_Guy]

Cornyn is not going to be Bill Nelson’d. Unlike Nelson, Cornyn is from a party with a still sizable  advantage in the state and Texas Democrats don’t have anything close to a Rick Scott-type figure.

[LoneStarDem]

Cornyn will be in the United States Senate down here until he kicks the bucket.

[ON Progressive]

Yet another poll (this one from UT/Texas Tribune) showing how much of an Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn really is.

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/5c618eb50344725d35a13e6897d37fb1/ut-tt-2019-03-summary-2.pdf?_ga=2.252587593.1920932923.1551793588-507444338.1551793588

Cornyn is at 36% approval and 35% disapproval. Just for comparison, Uniquely Unlikeable (according to OSR) Ted Cruz is at 46% approval and 41% disapproval.

What an Unbeatable Titan with loads of Suburban Appeal™.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Cornyn will be in the United States Senate down here until he kicks the bucket.

I think he'll live to 2020.

[S019]

Yes, Cornyn is unknown, but Dems don't really have a bench here other than the Castros and O'Rourke. Also many voters in TX can take their anger out on Trump, this is why many suburban Republicans won O'Rourke districts, these are Reps who hate Trump/Cruz. Cornyn is Generic R, I think he beats Castro 50-46, Hegar 51-45, and he beats Generic D 55-45

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1103049032144961536

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1103049032144961536

lol

[Pollster]

Could Wendy Davis run for TX-24 if Castro goes for Senate? I recall her former district being around the area, unless I'm mistaken?

[Oryxslayer]

Pls no.