KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[President Johnson]

GreenfIeld, McGrath and Kelly have been raising tons of money

Ask Jeb! how well tons of money are going if you don't run a good campaign.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

The front runner for the Republican Senate nomination was last seen losing to a Democrat almost identical to Barbara Bollier by 5%,  lol. I’m not delusional enough to think it is a tossup or even Lean R just yet, but it’s definitely on the periphery of the board

[Skill and Chance]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

The front runner for the Republican Senate nomination was last seen losing to a Democrat almost identical to Barbara Bollier by 5%,  lol. I’m not delusional enough to think it is a tossup or even Lean R just yet, but it’s definitely on the periphery of the board

If Kobach wins the primary, it will be a legitimate toss up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kobach wins primary its D+1 and if Marshall does it's a tossup, it would of been safe R only if Pompeo ran

[MT Treasurer]

2. Well, the reason why I talked about LA is that you mentioned the 2018 KS-GOV results as the proof that republicans would lose Kansas : ''This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country. '' So yeah, by your standard the fact that a democrat won the LA-GOV race last year with the massive support of suburban voters would mean that the LA-Sen race is going to flip, see why it's stupid to compare Gov and Sen races ?

3. What's your point here ? Sure, democrats usually don't care about where their senator live and Roberts would have won easily, but that's not the question here.

4. Yeah, Johnson County is growing, but like you explained the county represents only 20% of the state population, so stop acting like if Johnson County was the equivalent of Cook County for Illinois

5. Yeah, the Charlie Crist playbook, ''the GOP was great Under W but now with Trump they're just nazis.''
Yeah, this kind of strategy will work among Bush/Obama or Romney/Clinton soccer moms, but once again these voters are not enough to win KS in a federal race.

6. The last time they sent a D Senator it was in 1932, so yeah this element should be noted

7. That has nothing to do with how we should rate this race, TN was also once know for electing moderate republicans to the Senate, that's not the case today but TN is still Safe R.

2. Yeah... no, you just ignored my previous points (LA Dems have no bench, the Deep South is more Republican and ‘inflexible’ than KS, there’s no uncontroversial R incumbent running for reelection in KS, etc.).

3. My point is that Republicans suck at winning Senate races in red states (KS-SEN 2014, MO-SEN 2016, WV-SEN 2018, etc.).

4. Johnson is hardly the only KS county trending Democratic...

5. She’s probably also going to do better than Biden in rural KS, even if it’s only by 4-6% or something like that (in a close race, that could be the difference).

6. These things are true until they aren’t.

7. Eh, Blackburn underperformed Trump/Lee by a lot, so saying that this doesn’t matter isn’t really accurate. Bredesen did 15 points better than Clinton; if Bollier does 15 points better than Biden, the race will be a Tossup at worst for Dems.

By the time election day rolls around Bollier is going to make you guys sweat like dogs

If Kobach wins primary its D+1 and if Marshall does it's a tossup, it would of been safe R only if Pompeo ran

This, minus the Pompeo part.

[MT Treasurer]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Honestly, I can see this flipping before either GA race.

[Brittain33]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

This polling may be manipulated to show Kobach losing in order to hurt his primary campaign and get other Republicans in. I wouldn’t take it at face value.

[Skill and Chance]

Honestly, I can see this flipping before either GA race.

Plausible.  There is a large moderate right block in KS that will swing if they think the R nominee is crazy.

[Pollster]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

[Pericles]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

This polling may be manipulated to show Kobach losing in order to hurt his primary campaign and get other Republicans in. I wouldn’t take it at face value.

And maybe the (non Atlas) red state pattern of undecideds breaking R would apply. It seems very hard for such a strongly Republican state to flip.

[windjammer]

For those of you who think this is Safe R even with Kobach and that KS couldn’t possibly be more competitive than, say, IA or CO:

“National Republicans have outright said that the controversial Kobach can’t win a general election after losing the 2018 governor’s race by 5 points to Democrat Laura Kelly,” writes the Cook Report’s Jessica Taylor. “In private polling, Republicans have Kobach losing to likely Democratic nominee Barbara Bollier, and Kobach leading every other Republican in a head-to-head except Pompeo. Add in the fact that Democrats have a strong recruit in Bollier ⁠— a former Republican state senator who cited Trump as one of the reasons she switched parties in Dec. 2018.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/10/this-is-how-democrats-flip-senate/

In 2014, Roberts was losing by 10 points in the polls correct ?

[DINGO Joe]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

Not saying they shouldn't do that, but there's probably more upside in focusing on similar communities in Wyandotte or Sedgwick as they're putting down deeper roots. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ, CO, ME & KS are Ds route to majority

[Frenchrepublican]

With Pompeo out, How likely is Roger Marshall to get the nomination for the senate from KS?

Hard to tell as of now.
Anti-Kobach republicans have to unite behind one candidate, Trump must/should do everything he can to push Wagle out of the race and must endorse Marshall in order to help win the nomination, now I remain sceptic of Kobach winning the primary, he won only 40% of the vote two years ago in the R primary (with the Trump endorsement) and the fact he lost the Gov-race won't help him as he is now seen as a loser by conservative voters.

[Frenchrepublican]

2. Well, the reason why I talked about LA is that you mentioned the 2018 KS-GOV results as the proof that republicans would lose Kansas : ''This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country. '' So yeah, by your standard the fact that a democrat won the LA-GOV race last year with the massive support of suburban voters would mean that the LA-Sen race is going to flip, see why it's stupid to compare Gov and Sen races ?

3. What's your point here ? Sure, democrats usually don't care about where their senator live and Roberts would have won easily, but that's not the question here.

4. Yeah, Johnson County is growing, but like you explained the county represents only 20% of the state population, so stop acting like if Johnson County was the equivalent of Cook County for Illinois

5. Yeah, the Charlie Crist playbook, ''the GOP was great Under W but now with Trump they're just nazis.''
Yeah, this kind of strategy will work among Bush/Obama or Romney/Clinton soccer moms, but once again these voters are not enough to win KS in a federal race.

6. The last time they sent a D Senator it was in 1932, so yeah this element should be noted

7. That has nothing to do with how we should rate this race, TN was also once know for electing moderate republicans to the Senate, that's not the case today but TN is still Safe R.

2. Yeah... no, you just ignored my previous points (LA Dems have no bench, the Deep South is more Republican and ‘inflexible’ than KS, there’s no uncontroversial R incumbent running for reelection in KS, etc.).

3. My point is that Republicans suck at winning Senate races in red states (KS-SEN 2014, MO-SEN 2016, WV-SEN 2018, etc.).

4. Johnson is hardly the only KS county trending Democratic...

5. She’s probably also going to do better than Biden in rural KS, even if it’s only by 4-6% or something like that (in a close race, that could be the difference).

6. These things are true until they aren’t.

7. Eh, Blackburn underperformed Trump/Lee by a lot, so saying that this doesn’t matter isn’t really accurate. Bredesen did 15 points better than Clinton; if Bollier does 15 points better than Biden, the race will be a Tossup at worst for Dems.

By the time election day rolls around Bollier is going to make you guys sweat like dogs

If Kobach wins primary its D+1 and if Marshall does it's a tossup, it would of been safe R only if Pompeo ran

This, minus the Pompeo part.

2. You compared Gov races and Sen races even if there are big differences between them, what were your other points ? And once again the fact that democrats won the KS-Gov race is not a sign that the state is stampeding to the left like you seem to believe it, if we apply your logic, yeah Cassidy is vulnerable because republicans lost the LA Gov race last year.
And no, KS is as much republican than states like LA or MS, and there are no proof that KS voters are particulary ''flexible'' or open to vote for a democrat outside of Gov races.

3. Republicans won the 2016 MO-Sen race and the 2014 KS-Sen race, so what's  your point ?Yeah, they were closer than they should have been but the combination of a good climate (KS-2014) or the presence of Trump on the ballot (MO-2016) + the conservative lean of the state was too much for democrats to take these seats and the KS-SEN race will likely features the same problem for democrats, Trump will win KS by 15 points or more and there are simply not enough ''split ticket'' voters to push the democratic candidate across the finish line.

4. Yeah, Douglas and Shawnee are also trending to the left but they're too small to matter

5. Doing 5 or 6 points better than Biden is not enough to win statewide, unless you expect Trump to win KS by less than 10

6. Yeah, but it still pretty signficative, that's why I was very sceptic about the possibility of Menendez losing in NJ, considering that the state last elected a republican senator in the 1970's

7. Bredesen is a far stronger democrat than Bollier who is basically a upscale, liberal establishment democrat who has not particular appeal with conservative voters

Bollier doesn't worry me, Kobach worries me (even if he would be a slight favourite) as he would force republicans to spend a lot of money in what should be a safe race.

[Gracile]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

This seems like a good long-term strategy to make Kansas more competitive statewide (especially when much of the recent Democratic trend was motivated partially by the increasing Hispanic population), but it probably will not be sufficient enough to put Kansas in the competitive column in 2020. Much of the Hispanic population in SW Kansas are either too young to vote or not eligible to vote because they are not citizens. Plus, even if the Hispanic population increases as a share of the electorate it will not be enough to overcome the increased turnout among rural whites.

[tmthforu94]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

[tmthforu94]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

[Roll Roons]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

Yeah, I expect to see establishment types rally around Marshall. Roberts and Moran will probably do the same.

[Pollster]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

[Oryxslayer]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

Those counties share a lot of similarities with their neighbors to the South and Southwest in Texas, rural California, and other border establishments. Many people working in those meatpacking/processing towns cannot register to vote, or do not want to for structural reasons. Therefore, the real potential voter pool down here is far smaller than the resident population.

[DINGO Joe]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

You are talking about a very small group of voters that would be extremely expensive due to the geographic challenges. Best focus for Democrats would be maximizing turnout in urban areas.

There are multiple southwestern counties that are majority Hispanic/Latinx with adult populations of 20,000+ that average 15-20% turnout, often less. These are mostly based in micropolitan areas like Dodge City, Garden City, and Liberal - among others - that are well-concentrated.

There is a valuable long game here. Activating these new voters puts multiple state legislative districts in play, impacts redistricting, and of course provides votes at the top of the ticket that could be influential in a potentially tight statewide race.

Based on 2018 estimates for adult population (votes cast in 2018 Gov)

Finney 25600 (8600)
Ford 24700  (7100)
Seward 14900 (3800)
Wyandotte  119000 (42000)

Seward is probably the only one with an adult population that is majority non-white. The others are probably about 50-50 with Wyandotte much more diverse. Not saying you shouldn't try to register any eligible voter, but the work force in SW KS is pretty transitory. They aren't looking to work at the slaughterhouse forever.  The workforce in Wyandotte is more rooted

By contrast

Johnson 452000 (271000)
Sedgwick 382000 (168000)

[Frenchrepublican]

Dole endorses Roger Marshall.

Great new, republicans have to coalesce around him and Trump would be smart to endorse him

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.