KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[tmthforu94]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

It's not Lewison (I asked) - the candidate has never run for office before.

Interesting...you have peaked my curiosity!! I'll get nosy and see if I hear anything.

[Boobs]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

Danni Boatwright, former Miss Kansas, winner of Survivor Guatemala, Kansas City radio host, businesswoman.

semi-serious

[tmthforu94]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

Danni Boatwright, former Miss Kansas, winner of Survivor Guatemala, Kansas City radio host, businesswoman.

semi-serious

Interesting suggestion. She'd probably win my vote, provided she is able to run a serious campaign and show knowledge on the issues. I've always been a big fan of her!!

[Skye]

Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

[Pollster]

Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

This will probably spark a wave of talk from potential candidates, from both parties.

[SnowLabrador]

Anyone who says this is anything other than Safe R is kidding themselves. Trump will win the state by double digits.

[smoltchanov]

Anyone who says this is anything other than Safe R is kidding themselves. Trump will win the state by double digits.

Trump - probably yes. But Kris Kobach lost it by 5. So, if Republicans will put up another Kobach - who knows.... After all - Trump victory in Alabama by almost 28 didn't prevent election of Jones...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Anyone who says this is anything other than Safe R is kidding themselves. Trump will win the state by double digits.

It's definitely Lean R to be sure, but a mini-Trump like Kobach losing with only 43% is a huge warning sign for the GOP. KS is mostly suburban rather than rural because the rural areas, while vast, are so sparsely populated, and it isn't a good fit for the Trump-Era GOP Coalition.

[junior chįmp]

Dems should just give up...Dems havent won a senate seat here since 1932. its as foolish as sanders trying to win OK and WV. We must never forget those inspirational words that Obama told us in 2004 about there being no red or blue states but purple states.

[tmthforu94]

Dems should just give up...Dems havent won a senate seat here since 1932. its as foolish as sanders trying to win OK and WV. We must never forget those inspirational words that Obama told us in 2004 about there being no red or blue states but purple states.

I agree if someone like Marshall or LaTurner is the nominee - Democrats would be wasting resources by focusing on this race. I think there would be an outside shot of Kobach losing in a general election, though.

I still think Kobach ultimately doesn't run - there is a lot of folks in the KSGOP pushing him not to. If he runs, it will prove that he is the most selfish person in the state of Kansas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

I am willing to bet on Trump firing Pompeo (or him resigning) after the GOP primary for this seat is already settled.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Pompeo out:

https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1098572745779093504

I am willing to bet on Trump firing Pompeo (or him resigning) after the GOP primary for this seat is already settled.

Pompeo probably runs anyways to be honest if it appears as if Trump is a substantial underdog for re-election. If Trump loses re-election, his term for Secretary of State is instantly over, regardless of whether or not he ran for something else.

[Sestak]

Eh I never really saw Pompeo running for this.

[SnowLabrador]

Eh I never really saw Pompeo running for this.

[Brittain33]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/dagerber/status/1101525500621737984

[MT Treasurer]

Blue wave? Kansas Democrats think they have a ‘real chance’ for U.S. Senate in 2020

“I think we have a real chance in 2020 to pick up a Senate seat here,” Gibson said. “I think Democrats are certainly going to be the underdog but I think we’ll have a punching chance in that contest.”

And the midterms show Gibson could be right. In 2016, Republicans in Kansas won all four Congressional districts by double-digit margins. But that stronghold fell in 2018 when only two districts won by double-digits. In District 3, Davids beat Yoder by a margin of 10 points. In District 2, Democratic Paul Davis barely lost to Republican Rep. Steve Watkins.

In addition to a strong showing in the midterms, Democrats gained ground in the state legislature this session when three Republican lawmakers switched party affiliations, including Sen. Barbara Bollier, Sen. Dinah Sykes and Rep. Stephanie Clayton.

Gibson said it’s a sign that Kansans’ long-held affection for the Republican party is waning.

“There’s a lot of people who I’ve met going around the state who are still registered with the other side, and have a deep cultural affinity for Republicans, but they feel that Democrats are more aligned with their interests and their values,” Gibson said.

[Pollster]

Update from my previous post: the candidate Kelly/Sebelius/Emily's List was recruiting is waffling on running, citing her family and apparently young children. Not ruling out a run in the future. Kelly/Sebelius are still trying to persuade her but Emily's List has begun searching for other candidates.

[Tekken_Guy]

All a Democrat needs to do is dominate in the KC metro and the college towns. A Laura Kelly-like path is definitely possible.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1102696810647298049

[Oryxslayer]

Blue wave? Kansas Democrats think they have a ‘real chance’ for U.S. Senate in 2020

“I think we have a real chance in 2020 to pick up a Senate seat here,” Gibson said. “I think Democrats are certainly going to be the underdog but I think we’ll have a punching chance in that contest.”

And the midterms show Gibson could be right. In 2016, Republicans in Kansas won all four Congressional districts by double-digit margins. But that stronghold fell in 2018 when only two districts won by double-digits. In District 3, Davids beat Yoder by a margin of 10 points. In District 2, Democratic Paul Davis barely lost to Republican Rep. Steve Watkins.

In addition to a strong showing in the midterms, Democrats gained ground in the state legislature this session when three Republican lawmakers switched party affiliations, including Sen. Barbara Bollier, Sen. Dinah Sykes and Rep. Stephanie Clayton.

Gibson said it’s a sign that Kansans’ long-held affection for the Republican party is waning.

“There’s a lot of people who I’ve met going around the state who are still registered with the other side, and have a deep cultural affinity for Republicans, but they feel that Democrats are more aligned with their interests and their values,” Gibson said.

I agree, they have a chance...if the nominee is Kobach or a state legislator that subscribes to his views.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

We’re going to get Senator Kobach, aren’t we.

I always thought he was an inevitability for some higher office. I really hope not though, that's why the Kansas result in 2018 was probably the most exciting one. I wish he would just go away.

Relax

If Kris Kobach is the nominee for the 2020 Senate Race, it goes to Lean D.

[SnowLabrador]

Even Kris Kobach would win the Senate race. The only reason Laura Kelly was able to win was because it was a state race, not a federal race, less subject to polarization. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in over 80 years.

[windjammer]

Kansas may be trending dem, but losing the state by 10 instead by 20 doesn't change the outcome