KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R. With Kobach it might be a tossup though. Might. Kansans may find themselves able to stomach him better as a Senator over Governor. So we still may not be done with this maniac yet.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

[Strong Candidate]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary. Grissom is probably the best bet (Davids would be good too, but the risk of losing her house seat for a tiny increase in our chances of winning in the Senate race probably makes it a poor trade-off).

[Roll Roons]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

With the exception of Strickland, all the candidates you mention did better than practically any other candidate from their party would have done in the Senate race in the year and state in which they ran.

[Roll Roons]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

Sebelius is on of the worst candidates Dems could possiblly recruit. Her personal popularity in the state absolutely plummeted after becoming HHS Secretary.

This. Also we've seen former governors come back to try running for Senate in unfavorable states so many times in the past few years (Bayh, Strickland, Bredesen, Lingle, Kerrey, Thompson), and it never ends well for them.

With the exception of Strickland, all the candidates you mention did better than practically any other candidate from their party would have done in the Senate race in the year and state in which they ran.

Ok, but they all still lost, and by double digits in all cases except Thompson. I really don't see how it would be any different with Sebelius. Even with Kobach it would be tossup at most.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell is personally encouraging Pompeo to run, but still seems unlikely.

https://twitter.com/kansasdotcom/status/1086288098944843776

[😥]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

I will rate this matchup Lean D only in Kobach vs Kelly race
Kobach vs Sebelius is Tossup

[Alabama_Indy10]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

I will rate this matchup Lean D only in Kobach vs Kelly race
Kobach vs Sebelius is Tossup

Why would Kelly run for the senate?

[😥]

This seat would be Lean D if it were Kobach vs Sebelius.

I hope that is what happens.

I will rate this matchup Lean D only in Kobach vs Kelly race
Kobach vs Sebelius is Tossup

Why would Kelly run for the senate?

It's hypotecally, I doubt that she will run, but, as now she is the best possible Democrat nominee in the Senate in Kansas

[tmthforu94]

Derek Schmidt, State AG, is also considering a run. He would be the more moderate choice - I would say he would be the preference of most on the forum. Great guy, FF.

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article224686705.html

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/APCentralRegion/status/1086426936929329152

[MT Treasurer]

"Bold" prediction: This race will be closer than IA-SEN.

[Bidenworth2020]

"Bold" prediction: This race will be closer than IA-SEN.

LOL,I love how anyone thinks this is bold. It isnt a sure thing, but I'd say it is the most likely scenario.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/APCentralRegion/status/1086426936929329152

I'm very mixed on this. I hate Kobach with a passion and he needs to be as far away from public office as possible, but he is a proven loser now. So maybe he can make this race competitive.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Kobach runs this could actually be a race.

[Pericles]

If Kobach runs this could actually be a race.

Perhaps though voters may be more partisan in a Senae race than a gubernatorial race, so I could easily see the polls being close only for Kobach to pull out an underperformance from the state's typical lean but still a clear win nonetheless.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Kobach runs this could actually be a race.

Perhaps though voters may be more partisan in a Senae race than a gubernatorial race, so I could easily see the polls being close only for Kobach to pull out an underperformance from the state's typical lean but still a clear win nonetheless.

Yeah, he'd still be favored to win, but Democrats would have a chance instead of no chance.

[windjammer]

Likely rep.
Kansas is "trending" democrat but instead of remaining a R+10 state it's becoming a R+7 PVI state so still reliably red.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1087048699975557120

[Pollster]

Fear of Kobach driving attempts to recruit Pompeo quickly

[Pollster]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

[Roll Roons]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

I know they're trying to go for a Todd Akin redux here but I don't think that's a good idea. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s. It'd be a tossup at best with Kobach as the nominee.

[tmthforu94]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

[Pollster]

A few updates based on some reliable contacts I have involved with the planning behind this race:

-The Laura Kelly/Kathleen Sebelius machine has settled on a candidate and Emily's List plans to support the candidate as well. Nobody will share a name but it is a young woman with no history of running for office but very strong ties to the state.

-Nobody actually expects Pompeo to run. He apparently has a lot of the same issues as Roberts - doesn't live there and might not even be registered to vote in the state anymore.

-Dems are preparing to run against Marshall, but Colyer and Kobach are both considered likely candidates. Dem outside groups are likely willing to spend to help Kobach get through the primary.

All of this seems accurate. My bet is Katrina Lewison as the Democratic nominee.

It's not Lewison (I asked) - the candidate has never run for office before.