GA-SoS Runoff (Dec 4) Predictions Thread

[MT Treasurer]

I think this one will be really close. Normally I’d say lower turnout favors Democrats in the era of Trump, but in a state like GA I’m not so sure. My current prediction:

50.9% Raffensperger (R)
49.1% Barrow (D)

[Virginiá]

Voted Barrow, because I never learn and am a glutton for punishment.

[Yellowhammer]

Hopefully Raffensperger.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hopefully Raffensperger.

why do you like voter surpression?

[libertpaulian]

Barrow (to bring some sanity).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tossup.

Dems will either be pissed/energized or demoralized after Abrams' loss is certified. It depends on that, he will undoubtedly get a few crossover votes but he needs heightened Dem support to get him over the top.

[IceSpear]

It really depends. Will the trend of Democrats being more enthused for lower turnout elections hold up, or will the trend of Democrats not turning out for Georgia runoffs hold up? I'm going with the latter for now, but Barrow winning wouldn't stun me either.

[libertpaulian]

Raffensperger unless for some reason Barrow can maintain the absurdly high enthusiamsm Abrams generated. Which is probably not possible

Abrams needs to show up at every campaign stop he makes in the Atlanta Metro as well as in the smaller cities.  She needs to present herself as the face of what will happen time and time again if Barrow loses.

[lfromnj]

Raffensperger unless for some reason Barrow can maintain the absurdly high enthusiamsm Abrams generated. Which is probably not possible

Abrams needs to show up at every campaign stop he makes in the Atlanta Metro as well as in the smaller cities.  She needs to present herself as the face of what will happen time and time again if Barrow loses.

yeah basically Barrow needs Abrams margins in Metro Atlanta due to salty dems + being able to reduce the racist hick margins from +80 R to +70R.

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow and Abrams are probably the two best examples and/or greatest contrasts of the (relative) flexibility of Georgia's Democratic electorate. Both can win voters the other(s) can't on their own, which is why they were the two strongest performers both percentage wise and margin-wise (Barrow the strongest in terms of margin and Abrams the strongest in terms of absolute %).

Barrow's margin of loss was 105k votes smaller than Abrams' outside the five core ATL counties (Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb, Clayton & Gwinnett), but Abrams' margin of victory was 36k larger inside those 5 than Barrow. However, Abrams got 40k more votes than Barrow in the Big 5, while Barrow only got 7k more votes than Abrams outside of it. The latter might be the more relevant comparison given that in the former grouping, the Libertarian candidate for SoS did much better than the Libertarian candidate for GOV.

Without Abrams on the ballot and/or because it's not a regularly-scheduled election, Barrow will start with some disadvantages - but he will make up for at least some of that through crossover support. He'll do considerably better than any Generic D in his old CD (as can be seen below).

John Barrow basically outperformed Abrams everywhere except for the core metro, and really outperformed her in his old CD. However, Barrow underperformed Abrams by almost 30k votes in the 5 metro counties (Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, Dekalb & Clayton). If he had got the same # of votes as she did, he'd currently be leading and over 49%.

John Barrow Margin Vs. Stacey Abrams Margin

And here's the winning Democrat in each county (based on the highest % of vote received). Bacon King pointed out that Barrow basically came in first everywhere where that old Jimmy Cartah/Jawn Barra accent used to be prominent:

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[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

I would hope Barrow, but I doubt it.

Kemp's behavior represents the some of the worst of Southern Politics today. 

[Podgy the Bear]

It will be tough for Barrow to win this unless he gets the enthusiastic participation of Abrams.  By doing so, Abrams can show that she is in this for the big picture (rather than herself).

[KingSweden]

I would hope Barrow, but I doubt it.

Kemp's behavior represents the some of the worst of Southern Politics today. 

^^^^

[Pollster]

If Abrams continues to engage the base with the very idea of a runoff (and smartly continues to publicize the date of the runoff) Barrow can certainly turn out the voters he needs to win.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Abrams was on the ballot he would win but without her, she has to energize her base to vote in this runoff or he's screwed. I'm not that optimistic about this.

[Badger]

Runoff equals Republican.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Runoff equals Republican.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Runoff equals Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Either a. ~60/40 Republican like GA runoffs during the Obama years or b. ~52/48 Barrow, because 60% of Atlanta turns out vs. 40% of the rest of the state.  Lean b. because of how most of the nationalized 2017-18 special elections have gone, but the big exception to that was also in GA so IDK.

[MT Treasurer]

*bump*

[Rookie Yinzer]

55-45.

Abrams has been MIA since her non-concession. She brought out a lot of new voters who were only interested in her. Yeah, they voted downballot the day of, but they aren't coming out just to vote for a mealy mouthed old white man who has spent his campaign telling voters how he's not one of those Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Republican voters are, usually, more disciplined. They vote in run-offs, while Democratic voters frequently sit these elections out. Well, it's their choice...

[windjammer]

Barrow loses by 10

[Storr]

Runoff equals Republican.

Yep. My heart says Barrow, my head says Raffensperger.

[lfromnj]

Likely R Brad 55 45.
Georgia run offs are never good for democrats.
Anyway to people criticizng Barrow for being a moderate. It was a good strategy. There was nothing else he could have done to boost Abrams base. If democrats in atlanta didn't want him over Kemp thats their fault as the SOS doesn't need poliitcal views on most stuff.