Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Skye]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

[7,052,770]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

But that's how you're supposed to determine who is likely to win when there are uncounted votes out there.

I'm not saying Tester is going to win - the New York Times model is.

[Crumpets]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

He's not seeing it. He's spreading fake news to support his narrative of Democratic haplessness.

[BundouYMB]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Are you illiterate? 18% of the vote is out and almost all of it is Missoula. You already made yourself look like a clown with your moronic House prediction, so just shut up before you embarrass yourself any further.

[J. J.]

The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years.

Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts.

The Senate is gone for a long time.

I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch.

Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way...
which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about

I'm going to disagree.  I think it is a matter of fairness.

Menendez, for example, was savaged; he won.   I would have voted for him because of how he was treated.

We saw an attempt in the Senate to get Kavanaugh; 4-5 of the people that went along with that are not there anymore.   

The efforts to demonize Trump are really counterproductive.   

Case in point, the claims of antisemitism against Trump.  He attacks Soros, who contributes a lot of money nationally and internationally to liberal causes (and some that conservatives favor, like Solidarity) and liberal's claim he's antisemitic.  Liberals claim that Trump is responsible for increased hate crimes, yet the statistics show that the increase stated under Obama (and don't seem to have a correlation to him being president either). 

The conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

[7,052,770]

So the final number is probably 54, but could theoretically fall as low as 51, depending on how Arizona, Florida, and the Mississippi runoff go.

And maybe the most likely is actually 53. Not sure what to believe on Arizona.

[7,052,770]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

[Vern]

When will we get a call in AZ and MT?

[J. J.]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. 

[Tintrlvr]

When will we get a call in AZ and MT?

Not before Thursday or Friday at the earliest in Arizona because of all of the uncounted absentees, and that one could still go either way. Montana could conceivably be called today once they start counting again, but it will probably be called for Tester, not Rosendale.

[UWS]

I actually think that Arizona could be called soon enough. RCP says that 98 % of the vote in Arizona are reported and McSally is ahead by 1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/state/az/senate/

[MillennialModerate]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. 

I guess I’m “embarrassing myself” by stating the obvious.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. 

It won't be a R victory, lol. All of the outstanding vote is in pretty blue counties.

[J. J.]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction.  

Bear in mind that Missoula is still stuck at 73 percent reporting -- but you are correct, it's too early to outright call it.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

And to be fair, the Westboro Baptist Church is like it's own political party: they hate EVERYBODY.

[J. J.]

If you had told me that Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer both won while Loebsack crushed it I wouldn't have predicted a Reynolds win

Agreed. I still have a hard time believing it wasn't closer.

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over

Where are you seeing that? The NYT results page only has 83% of MT in, and it's really close.

CNN has 95% in, with Rosendale up by 0.5 points.  It is too early to call it an R victory, but it is heading in that direction. 

It won't be a R victory, lol. All of the outstanding vote is in pretty blue counties.

Quoted for truth. 

[Nyvin]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble.    Ever see quotes like this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

the conservatives say to an opponent they disagree with, "You're  wrong."   Liberals say to an opponent they disagree with,"You're evil."  It gets bad when the data doesn't even support the liberals.

The American people don't like that.  You can about Trump's tone, but I'm seeing much more of that on the left.

Its delusional even for you to say that Republicans dont call Democrats evil. Have you never heard of the Religious Right?

Even they do not do it at the same level.  Further, they call actions evil, i.e. abortion is evil, but the people that have them are not evil.  Except for the absolute extremist, the Fred Phelps types, you don't have that.

It is easy to say "Trump is wrong about Soros backing the caravan." Instead, we have, "Trump is trying to stoke antisemitism by saying Soros is backing the caravan."

You've gotta be kidding me....you must live in a bubble.    Ever see quotes like this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah this whole "our side would never DREAM of being uncivil! We just want to respectfully talk and discuss ike gentlemen" is ridiculous.  

[Crumpets]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up.


If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington.

[libertpaulian]

As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up.


If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington.

Isn't the Charleston area trending D?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar.

If that were the case, Trump would be gloating about it on Twitter right now. Of course, he is gloating, but his heart isn't in it.

Whoever said I was thinking only of the Democrats?

[Crumpets]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do.