Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Zaybay]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

Huh.  We still have two out, each way.

The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them.  The Senate exceeded Republican expectations.  Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CT).  One flipped with a lot of GOP support.

BTW: My pick was 229 D. 

WI was already called for Evers, so its really 2 up in the air.

[J. J.]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

Huh.  We still have two out, each way.

The House met Democratic expectations, but did not exceed them.  The Senate exceeded Republican expectations.  Three governorships are up in the air (WI, GA, CT).  One flipped with a lot of GOP support.

BTW: My pick was 229 D. 

WI was already called for Evers, so its really 2 up in the air.

dcalled, but he hasn't conceded and I think there are absentee votes out.

[7,052,770]

According to NYT:

FL 54% chance of going Republican
AZ 59% chance of going Republican

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

According to NYT:

FL 54% chance of going Republican
AZ 59% chance of going Republican

Can someone explain how there's still such a non-negligible chance that the Republicans lose these states?

[Ben.]

According to NYT:

FL 54% chance of going Republican
AZ 59% chance of going Republican

Can someone explain how there's still such a non-negligible chance that the Republicans lose these states?

How AZ is more likely to go Republican I don't know.

Florida is done, but Arizona looks as if there are a significant number of votes outstanding - at least, according to the SoS.

[J. J.]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. 

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.     

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. 

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.     

Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out.  Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever.

[ajc0918]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible. 

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.     

Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out.  Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever.

These areas are only getting more diverse though so it bodes well for Dems. The other three I agree with except NY-11, that could stay Dem.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

5 picks: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Arizona and 55-45 majority. Great morning.

Losing 30+ House seats and getting creamed in the gubernatorial races is great? Be careful not to break your back moving those goalposts.

I hardly think it's the Republicans moving goalposts. Quite the opposite from most people here. Needing just 10 seats to retake the House from a wave year is more than doable. What they did last night was potentially seal the Senate in their favour for years to come. If they would have taken one more, I would go as far as to say that they have the Senate locked up for the next six years. As it stands, the Democrats will have an uphill climb to prevent that power claim.

Those eight plus years are going to be incredibly painful for the activists in this country. Keep dreaming only to be shot down time and time again - and then you're a decade older without seeing any tangible accomplishments for your movement.

I'll take my new courts completely stacked. All eyes on Judiciary for the next two years. Have fun with pointless investigations and stopping gerrymandering if you can.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Fair enough, but as a left leaning Indy, I'm satisfied with taking the House and a number of governorships.   Scott Walker losing was delightful. 

The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years.

Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts.

The Senate is gone for a long time.

I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch.

Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way...
which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about

[Crumpets]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Fair enough, but as a left leaning Indy, I'm satisfied with taking the House and a number of governorships.   Scott Walker losing was delightful. 

The house isn’t a big enough majority to feel like it can be held for any longer than 2 years.

Losing Florida and Ohio Governors really hurts.

The Senate is gone for a long time.

I’m trying not tone negative but feels like a gut punch.

Worst of all I’m starting to accept that my country is supportive of the Trump way...
which makes me absolutely sick to my stomach to think about

Yeah... something tells me it doesn't.

[Zaybay]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Well, no, your off by a guaranteed 1 in the senate, as Tester is likely to win reelection(90% in fact).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will keep the House, in 2020, the blue Senate map insulate our gains. Cory Booker and Martin Heinrich can help secure Pelosi leadership. And Senate is doable with ME,CO, NC and AZ and KS

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Except that it appears Tester will win in Montana.  Really, I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but it basically boils down to being incorrect on the House and picking a GOP Senate correctly but being off in terms of numbers.  That's not all that impressive a prediction.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Well, no, your off by a guaranteed 1 in the senate, as Tester is likely to win reelection(90% in fact).

Not trying to be rude, but can you read?

Almost all votes in, Tester lost

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar.

[Mr.Phips]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible.  

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.    

Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out.  Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever.

Republicans aren't taking back the House if Trump loses.  They need him to win to take back the House.  I may agree with you on SC-01, but most of the seats Dems picked up are ones that are only getting more diverse (i.e. Dem) unlike 2006/2008 where Dems picked up a bunch of rural blue dog seats.

[7,052,770]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

[Zaybay]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

Didn't you create a whole thread insisting that the Republicans would hold the House? And, no, saying "well they didn't win by that much" isn't justification. 

Yeah, I said they’d hold the house and pick up 4 in the Senate.

I was wrong on the house and nailed it exactly on the Senate

Well, no, your off by a guaranteed 1 in the senate, as Tester is likely to win reelection(90% in fact).

Not trying to be rude, but can you read?

Almost all votes in, Tester lost

Perhaps you should see where these voters are, and what the margin is. Ill wait for the votes to be counted there before making a declaration like that.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

Florida is pretty well sealed IMO, but I agree that people should wait until all of the numbers are in before congratulating themselves on predictions that they only got half-right. 

[Storebought]

Ne ego si iterum eodem modo uicero, sine ullo milite Epirum reuertar.

If that were the case, Trump would be gloating about it on Twitter right now. Of course, he is gloating, but his heart isn't in it.

[MillennialModerate]

LOL, 55 seats for the Republicans.

That is ing embarrassing for the Democrats.

Literally embarrassing.

55 is a worst case scenario. Montana is probably going D, and Arizona and Florida aren't over yet.

As I said to Zaybay.... read. Tester lost.

I’ve heard all night in all these different races “BUT LOOK WHERE THE OUTSTANDING VOTES ARE FROM!!!!” - rip the bandaid off. It’s over