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  🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level) (search mode)
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Author Topic: 🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)  (Read 216774 times)
Aurelio21
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Germany


« on: December 04, 2018, 08:12:04 AM »

Is Merz considered to be favored? Virtually all the discourse that I've seen just assumes that Merz would be the next leader, even though it seems to me like an internal election in a deeply establishmentarian party like the CDU (as opposed to an Anglophone type of primary) should give a victory to the establishment candidate, who would be AKK.

No, AKK is clearly favored.
I compiled a list of all latest polls about the CDU chairmanship election in the respective thread:


I do not think so: https://jungefreiheit.de/politik/deutschland/2018/die-basis-hat-sich-entschieden/

If AKK prevails, she will only prevail because of Mrs Merkel's support and the fact that she is the secretary General of the CDU and thus is able to control information about who is a delegate and who not.

Mr Merz is programmatically the most popular candidate, as my relatives which are CDU members can confirm. Unlike AKK, he has already proven to be a keen strategician:
-Weakening the AfD by courting the former CDU voters
- Weakening the Free Democrats (the second voter target) He proposed a total overhaul of the byzantine complicted tax laws (tax return on a beermat)
- To hell with Angela Merkel's triangulation by emulating the social democrats and green Party
- Unlike all other contenders, he is not flip-flopping as these have always been his positions on the issues and thus very convincing


The point is: what can A Merkel do to bribe convince the NRW CDU delegates( i e PM Laschet). Maybe a deal: AKK chair of the CDU,  Mr Laschet(who did not have the support of his iwn state Party for the CDU chair election) as Chancellor-heir-presumptive and Mr Spahn as secretary general?


Keep in mind that the arguably more conservative CSU is a separate party. AKK has a slight advantage as she can offer more pork at this very moment. If there would be a primary (god forbid this -  this is the CDU!), Mr Merz would win by 2/3 and AKK would be overtaken by Mr Spahn.

PS: I would take the polls with a grain of salt. They are published in Merkel-allied newspapers like "Handelsblatt" and outlets of the Springer group and thus generating AKK support.
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Aurelio21
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Posts: 131
Germany


« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2018, 01:13:29 PM »

@rob: There are guidelines which have been discussed within the ministries and a draft bill exists. According to my assessment, this would be catastrophical as immigrants can just now get into Germany under the pretense of searching a job (they do not necessarily need a contract!!) instead of the pretense of seeking asylum:

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/fachkraefte-zuzug-kritik-aus-union-und-fdp-am-entwurf-fuer-das-geplante-einwanderungsgesetz/23632042.html?ticket=ST-3608926-S0b9ZmwbE3XagtIqxTVh-ap2

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Aurelio21
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Posts: 131
Germany


« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2018, 05:02:06 PM »

A "behemoth" that polls below 30 percent? Merkel's one lasting legacy will be the establishment of a party to the right of the CDU/CSU. This vote means the AfD is here to stay.

Trendlines are not permanent nor consistent. Yes the AfD is here to stay, but once the Green surge dissapates, the CDU will once again be the only German party above 25%. That's what I mean by behemoth, no party can enter govt eithout the CDU.

I would not be that sure. As LeChasseur noted, if someone has to chose between a lite version of the Greens and the orginal Greens, the original wins. This explains the rise of the Greens in recent polls. The taste of power makes anything possible and they might nominate W Kretschmann as real candidate for the chancellorship for the snap election.

Of course, Merkel will stay for now. Her centre of power lies in Berlin( Springer represented by Friede Springer) and Guetersloh (Bertelsmann represented by Liz Mohn). AKK's hold is only guaranteed by her, and PM Laschet. Will there be a harmonious tea time with AKK(an ardent catholic) and Friede Springer (an old-faith lutheran protestant).

Maybe AKK will try to emulate a centrist to center left(economical) position, yet the Greens and to a lesser extent the FDP are already occupying this spot. Merkel can leave a blank space for anyone projecting their (liberal) views on her. AKK cannot channel contraticting things like pro-islam (only laisser-faire-immigration) and  pro-alphabeth-salad(formerly known as LGTB) at all.
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Aurelio21
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Posts: 131
Germany


« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2018, 05:37:34 PM »

Does nobody wanna know why I posted that date?

I just assumed election 2019 rumors.

That's the date when Merkel is likely to propose a vote of confidence.
If the confidence eludes her, the Federal President can thus dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days in order to call new general elections (but he isn't obliged to).
Snap elections have to be held on the last Sunday within 60 days after the dissolution of the parliament.
If Merkel proposes the vote of confidence on March 6, 2019, snap elections would consequently be held on May 26, hance at the same time as the European election, the Bremen state election and local elections in nine states.

Please keep in mind that Mr Steinmeier is a (inacitve) member of the SPD. He clearly knows that any election at this point would cause the end of the SPD. He was the pivotal figure for the SPD re-entering the coalition of doom after the failure of the Greens and FDP.

The rise of the Greens in polls, hypothetical and real, demontrates that the short term memory of the german electorate equals the american electorate, if not even worse.
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Aurelio21
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Posts: 131
Germany


« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2018, 07:43:59 AM »
« Edited: December 09, 2018, 07:53:39 AM by Aurelio21 »

I think, that the discussion of snap elections is overhyped. CDU/CSU actually has no incentive to call snap elections, given the state of the polls. And I don't think Merkel wants to go with a faked vote of confidence […]

The other way would be Merkel resigning (but that probably does not allign with her political ethos - resign and let the country in a state seen as unstable, because we would get into totally untestested constitutional waters). […] Of course, she could get a plurality in the third, which probably would lead to a short-termed Union/FDP minority government followed by a real lost vote of confidence. The Greens will not take part in a Jamaica governement before new elections. (BTW they will not nominate Kretschmann, they are very satisfied with their Duo Habeck/Baerbock that has actually shifted the intra-party center of power back from Baden-Württemberg to the federal party).
There is no reason to hasten things, especially as Merkel has a good working relationship with her heir apparent Kramp-Karrenbauer.

- I do not think either that a snap election will be called as even with AKK or another candidate, as the CDU in her current incarnation prefers the SPD as partner. Mrs Merkel reportedly did not like the CDU/FDP coalition at all.
- AKK is not CDU chair on her own right. She is only a compromise(-d) surrogate for Mrs Merkel. I can remember in Feb'18, nobody had her in account. She was chosen as compromise between Merkelistas and the conservative cultural and economical Laisser-faire parts of the CDU as the most conservative Merkelista.
- As proven with her choice for secretary general, she is no skilled tactician. Her success was orchestrated by Mrs Merkel and PM Laschet.
- Barring any newly found strategic and tactical skills, after Merkel Mr Laschet will push her simply aside
- Never in the history of the CDU, there has been a open public steady 40-% opposition to the chairmanship! Within the conservative CDU, showing disunity to the outside was always a big taboo.
- Mr Habeck has success because he channels the "no experiments" mood while the CDU signals instability. That and the uncritical pro-green media coverage of anything he does swings some affluent CDU voters to the greens in purely hypothetical polls(which have except for the election in Bavaria always overestimated Green support).
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Aurelio21
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Posts: 131
Germany


« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2021, 07:46:34 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2021, 01:34:42 AM by Aurelio21 »

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

It's a very curious thing though... for about three years there has been no significant scandal involving either Baerbock or the Greens. But now, a new scandal seems to surface every four days or so, while the CDU looks squeaky clean.

Well, maybe it's not that curious. Since 2009 this is the fourth Bundestag election in a row where I happen to work for or with the Greens in some capacity and by now I'm recognizing the patterns that have been repeating themselves every single time. As soon as the election campaign starts, BILD and FOCUS are packing out the big guns. And even if some of the "scandals" have basis they seem to have been collected over the past couple years with the apparent intention of a timed release during the election year.

But let's gets through the media-type events that Tender has mentioned above.

- Failing to declare 30.000€ 25.000 € in (primarily Christmas) bonus payments. This one is the objectively worst of the accusations and probably the first one where I would concede that it has some grounds to be concerned, outraged or whatever. While not a total career-ending catastrophe, it is certainly led to Baerbock's worst week since she became Chancellor-candidate (and maybe party chair as well). Normally I would be a lot more outraged about it myself, but since it is obviously part of a coordinated media campaign which also happens to contain a lot of bullsh**t stories it sort of gets cancelled out by the noise where your humble narrator is concerned.

- "Questions about her master's degree without acquiring a bachelor's degree":
Nothingburger artificially inflated by the aforementioned media. She obtained a Vordiplom in Germany to get a master's degree in England, because at that time bachelor's degree were still uncommon in our country. Completely standard procedure back then to count a German Vordiplom as a substitute for a bachelor. If there have ever been any "questions" about it, there are obviosuly by now resolved... a week later.

-  "A nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course)":
I'd rather call it a lame joke. More importantly, the video of that joint interview is already a couple of years old. I wonder why it happens to penetrate the Internet now... and to carry on from the paragraph above, Baerbock holds a Master of Laws in Public International Law from the London School of Economics, so trying to continue to ride that horse borders on deliberately spreading misinformation IMO.

- "Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.":
But have you forgotten already that Habeck literally wrote in a book once that Germany makes him puke ?? (at least that would be one of the main stories right now had he become the Greens' Chancellor-candidate)

The following blog has a good (albeit German-language) editorial on the new "Baerbock is a corrupt, Stalinist devil" phenomenon. It starts out as a satire of the BILD's (and CDU/CSU's) discrediting strategies before turning to a more serious analysis of recent events. Notably it also goes out of its way in pointing out that Baerbock has been treated rather fairly by the FDP so far - primarily it's the CSU and to a lesser extent the CDU which generously picks up any fake (or half-fake) news and runs with it:

https://www.volksverpetzer.de/satire/baerbock-muesli/

Personally, I'm counting the days until Baerbock is finally accused of running a child slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Berlin or something.

If you are a die-hard green supporter, these points may seem negligible. And true, maybe if you are a student at university or have a typical white-collar job, virtue signalling a "racism problem" certainly is a main concern and important issue.

Elsewhere, the economic downturn, loss of jobs and bankrupcy wave of small retailers and small business owners are much more urgent questions.
To those voters which are at least in their mid-20s, Mrs. Baerbock's "negligible blemishs" resemble the media hype of Mr. Schulz four years ago.

- She forgot the bonus payments to report THREE years in a row. And she got a "Corona Bonus Payment" too, while workers are getting laid off, or have reduced wages. Not to mention the intensive care nurses and medical staff which had real hardships with Corona without any bonus payments, but unpaid extra work.  She only came out as a free lance journalist who had a story on her wanted it to sell it to our "beloved" public broadcast service turned it down and warned her.

- The interview excerpt in which she rudely disqualifies her Co-Chairman Habeck can be seen here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOMW8Kn4OLw
She berates him first with his "chicken, swines and what'cha have, cow milking, I stem from international law". Well, as if she had a JD, not a Masters in public administration.

- The Diploma degree(usually at least 4.5 years of studying , not a Credit Point System for individual courses but integrated minimum learning time including a thesis) was accepted only as undergraduate studies in the UK. The Pre-diploma (a small exam after 2 years) was not an accepted academic title at home or abroad. Except for some extremely privileged children of some bigwigs, like children of CEOs. There it was magically possible. Let's sum this up: After 2+1 years instead of 4.5 years of studying obtaining academic title in this time is not something according to most Diploma degree regulations.
By the way, I have a Diploma degree myself and was a student member of the curriculum commission. I do not knwo the exact cirumstances and regulations of the political faculty at the University of Hamburg at which she obtained the title, and why she did not complete the diploma afterwards, thus I cannot say if there were circumstances in which 3 years without Master thesis were acceptable instead of 4.5 years of studying inlcuding a Diploma thesis.  
In my case experience, we had to judge a student's academic curriculum, and abbreviating a study with a Masters degree this way was usually  seen as not acceptable to obtain the Diploma degree.
By the way, the missing Masters thesis of Mrs Baerbock has  a striking resemblance of the missing Doctorate thesis of the person whose office she wants to inherit...

Well, the satire page might be funny. Reminds me of the puppy ad of "radical liberal Raphael Warnock" ;-)

The whole scrutiny is valid to me, as long as is kept objective. The "Diploma question" must be evaluated, maybe this is indeed too critical, but maybe she should be held accountable on sincerity as all politicians with academic titles. After all, we need a person with a sound judgement as next chancellor, not a secretary for agit-prop.

Last but not least 2 sources for the confusing claim Mrs. Baerbock being a "International Law" whatever:
https://juergenfritz.com/2021/05/21/annalena-baerbock-keine-juristin-aber-voelkerrechtlerin/
https://juergenfritz.com/2021/05/22/baerbock-brach-promotion-2015-ab-gab-sich-bis-2021-ohne-zeitliche-angabe-als-doktorandin-aus/
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