Who will be the next CDU chairman?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yesterday, the second "regional conference" was held. Initially planned to be set in Mainz, the meeting was rescheduled to Idar-Oberstein, Rhineland-Palatinate, due to the great crush. 2,000 members were attending the event (compared to the 900 attendees in the North conference). The conference was introduced by Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner.
One of the main topics was the Global Compact for Migration, which Spahn opposes, Merz is critical of and AKK supports. The loudest applause is reported to be received by Merz, even though it was AKK's home turf. The most belligerent attitude was - again - shown by Spahn, who attacked Merkel this time after attacking Merz at the last conference. Both times his aggressiveness was not well-received by the audience.

Right now, the third regional conference is being held in the tiny town of Seebach, Wartburg County, Thuringia, in front of 700 members from Thuringia and Hesse. Merz just dared to question the constitutional right of asylum.

[republicanbayer]

Yesterday, the second "regional conference" was held. Initially planned to be set in Mainz, the meeting was rescheduled to Idar-Oberstein, Rhineland-Palatinate, due to the great crush. 2,000 members were attending the event (compared to the 900 attendees in the North conference). The conference was introduced by Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner.
One of the main topics was the Global Compact for Migration, which Spahn opposes, Merz is critical of and AKK supports. The loudest applause is reported to be received by Merz, even though it was AKK's home turf. The most belligerent attitude was - again - shown by Spahn, who attacked Merkel this time after attacking Merz at the last conference. Both times his aggressiveness was not well-received by the audience.

Right now, the third regional conference is being held in the tiny town of Seebach, Wartburg County, Thuringia, in front of 700 members from Thuringia and Hesse. Merz just dared to question the constitutional right of asylum.

I watched the first two regional conferences on YouTube, AKK was ahead in Lübeck, Merz seemed to get more applause yesterday.
Spahn actually supports the migration pact, he just wants a debate and a vote on it at the party convention. But he said multiple times that he would vote for it. Merz gave an evasive answer: He said it would have been better to have a debate (and vote) on this some time ago and not just two days before the ratification of the pact.
The CDU Sachsen-Anhalt and the state‘s Governor Rainer Haseloff oppose the pact. They‘re also planning to conduct a poll among all their members regarding who should be the next party leader. The result will be published a few days before the leadership election. I expect Merz and also Spahn to do well, because Sachsen-Anhalt is the most right-wing state party.

[Diouf]

CDU leadership hopeful Friedrich Merz wants debate on asylum rights

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https://www.openpaper.com/cdu-leadership-hopeful-friedrich-merz-wants-debate-on-asylum-rights-news-dw/

[DavidB.]

Middle class would be a very confusing translation. "Mittelstand" basically means "small and medium-sized enterprises/ enterpreneurs.

Maybe "Industry and Commerce Association" would be a good rough translation.

I don't know that Mittelstand is also a term in the English language.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelstand

It's not. But it has an English-language Wikipedia entry since it's used in the German-speaking world so often. In Dutch we have "middenstand" which is the same as Mittelstand - and not the same as "middenklasse" (middle class).

[President Johnson]

CDU leadership hopeful Friedrich Merz wants debate on asylum rights

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https://www.openpaper.com/cdu-leadership-hopeful-friedrich-merz-wants-debate-on-asylum-rights-news-dw/

This is one of the reasons I want to guy to win. Maybe he wins back voters from the AfD.

[😥]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

No, that's wrong. AKK is likely to win by huge margins.

Here's the current poll among all CDU voters:

[Lechasseur]

AKK (ugh), but I support Merz

[mvd10]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

No, that's wrong. AKK is likely to win by huge margins.

Here's the current poll among all CDU voters:

Are CDU members more ideologically conservative and therefore more likely to support Merz or are they more establishment-oriented and therefore more likely to support AKK? Which effect is stronger ?

[Coffein00]

Maybe one should point out, that NOT the the CDU-members will elect the new chairman. The chairman will be elected by 1001 delegates which are sent to the party convention in Hamburg next weekend from the 15 different CDU state-parties. Each state can sent a certain amount of delegates which depends on the number of CDU-members in the state and the last election result of the CDU in the state. Mostly MPs and state-legislators of the CDU are chosen as delegates. Some state-parties give a recommendation to vote for a certain candidate, but many state-parties do not give any advice. All delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Therefore polls of the general popoulation or the CDU-members do not really give any prediction about who is going to win in the end, even though some delegates might take the general mood in the party into consideration when they make their decision.
Afaik polls among those 1001 delegates are planned and might be released this week.

[mvd10]

Maybe one should point out, that NOT the the CDU-members will elect the new chairman. The chairman will be elected by 1001 delegates which are sent to the party convention in Hamburg next weekend from the 15 different CDU state-parties. Each state can sent a certain amount of delegates which depends on the number of CDU-members in the state and the last election result of the CDU in the state. Mostly MPs and state-legislators of the CDU are chosen as delegates. Some state-parties give a recommendation to vote for a certain candidate, but many state-parties do not give any advice. All delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Therefore polls of the general popoulation or the CDU-members do not really give any prediction about who is going to win in the end, even though some delegates might take the general mood in the party into consideration when they make their decision.
Afaik polls among those 1001 delegates are planned and might be released this week.

Yeah, you're right. I forgot it were the delegates . My question still stands I suppose.

[Coffein00]

I support Annegret KK, but I guess Merz wins (barely).

No, that's wrong. AKK is likely to win by huge margins.

Here's the current poll among all CDU voters:

Are CDU members more ideologically conservative and therefore more likely to support Merz or are they more establishment-oriented and therefore more likely to support AKK? Which effect is stronger ?

I think the members are ideologically a little bit more conservative than the party-policy under Merkel. On the other hand they are also aware, that AKK is the lowest risk for them. They are overwhelmingly against building a coalition with the far-right (like black/blue (CDU/CSU+AfD) or Bahamas (CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD) ). With AKK the chance to position the chancellor seems to be much higher, because the CDU/CSU will be able to built coalitions like black/green (CDU+Green), Jamaica (CDU+FDP+Green) or even another grand coalition with the SPD, which are much more unlikely with a more conservative course under Merz. The result from the poll indicats that most members are either somewhat in line with the more centrist course of the party atm and are therefore preferring AKK or that they prefer influence and power (being in/leading the government) over pure idology.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yesterday was the last regional conference in Berlin.
On December 7, Merkel's successor will be elected.
Does anybody know when she will be assuming office?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Maybe one should point out, that NOT the the CDU-members will elect the new chairman. The chairman will be elected by 1001 delegates which are sent to the party convention in Hamburg next weekend from the 15 different CDU state-parties. Each state can sent a certain amount of delegates which depends on the number of CDU-members in the state and the last election result of the CDU in the state. Mostly MPs and state-legislators of the CDU are chosen as delegates. Some state-parties give a recommendation to vote for a certain candidate, but many state-parties do not give any advice. All delegates are allowed to vote their conscience. Therefore polls of the general popoulation or the CDU-members do not really give any prediction about who is going to win in the end, even though some delegates might take the general mood in the party into consideration when they make their decision.
Afaik polls among those 1001 delegates are planned and might be released this week.

Hm, I thought that has long been clarified.
Anyway, in case you'all been wondering why there are 1,001 and not 1,000 delegates: The 1,001st one is a delegate from the CDU chapter in Brussels, thus something like a local "CDU Abroad" branch. They're sending their chairman Tim Peters as a delegate.

Here is an overview of the number of delegates each state party is sending to the convention:



One thing is strange though: A Lower Saxony CDU state party actually doesn't exist. There are three statewide associations: Hanover, Brunswick, and Oldenburg:


I was proceeding on the assumption that each of the three associations would send their own delegates, but it seems like the Lower Saxon umbrella association was competent to choose all statewide delegates.

[Coffein00]

The "Bild am Sonntag" has polled the 1,001 delegates. Most of them didn't want to participate or were still undecided, but 269 announced who they are going to vote for.
The result is a little bit suprising, but not fully unexpected:

Friedrich Merz : 144
AKK: 96
Jens Spahn: 29
42 Delegates said they were currently undecided between Merz and AKK.

Another poll conducted by "Rheinische Post" asked 150 of the 296 delegates from NRW (home-state of Merz and Spahn) about their preference. 45 did respond and the result was:

Merz: 21
AKK: 14
Spahn: 10

A few days ago the "FAZ" also reported that most delegates of Hesse are apparently voting for Merz, including former ministerpresident Roland Koch.

[rob in cal]

 Coffein, thanks for that info.  Any projections on which lander delegations will be strongholds for each candidate?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Coffein, thanks for that info.  Any projections on which lander delegations will be strongholds for each candidate?

You should know that BILD and BILD AM SONNTAG are the FOX News of Germany.

[Tender Branson]

These delegate polls are probably much better than general polls of the broader Union membership/electorate, because they are not eligible to vote.

And the delegate sample seems to be much different to the membership/electorate, with Merz ahead of AKK.

It seems there is a desire for a more conservative way ahead among the delegates, rather than a continuation of Merkelism with AKK. But still nothing is decided yet, because a lot of delegates have refused to be polled.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here's the compilation of all the latest poll numbers from the state-run television:

All respondents:



All CDU voters:





Split into gender vote:



Who is more trustworthy / more likeable?



Who has more analytic expertise? / Who is more likely to represent the interests of the common people?



Favorability ratings of the most important politicians of the week:





Will the CDU derive benefit or sustain damage from the dispute over the chairmanship?

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.
Even though women will be obviously overrepresented at the convention, the Westfälische Rundschau nevertheless speaks of "only" a third.

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.

Interesting !

That is a fairly significant structural advantage for Merz then ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.

Interesting !

That is a fairly significant structural advantage for Merz then ...

Nonetheless, regarding all male CDU voters, AKK is still more popular than Merz. (Okay, technically speaking it's a statistical tie.)

[Tender Branson]

The gender gap is pretty big.

Which brings us to the question: what is the gender makeup of the 1.001 CDU delegates ?

Regarding the members in total, you have 74% men and 26% women.
Thus, I assume there will be about 740 men and 260 women at the convention.

Edit: I found a source.
34% of the delegates are female. The highest share of women among the statewide delegates can be found in the Schleswig-Holstein delegation with 42.5%; The Saxon CDU only dispatches 3 women (out of 30 delegates) to Hamburg.

Interesting !

That is a fairly significant structural advantage for Merz then ...

Nonetheless, regarding all of the CDU voters, AKK is still more popular than Merz. (Okay, technically speaking it's a statistical tie.)

Yes, but they are not the ones voting.

Among CDU-voters, women make up 52% (or something along the lines of the general population).

Among the voting delegates, it is only 34% women.

That's a big difference.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, but they are not the ones voting.

Among CDU-voters, women make up 52% (or something along the lines of the general population).

Among the voting delegates, it is only 34% women.

That's a big difference.

Okay, that's right. The CDU has become a women's party thanks to the AfD. And if you substract the CSU out, it will become even more devastating for the former men's party.

Voting behavior based on gender during the latest federal election: