🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Middle-aged Europe]

INSA post-election poll

SPD 28% (+2)
CDU/CSU 21% (-3)
Greens 16% (+1)
FDP 12% (+0.5%)
AfD 10% (+/-0)
Left 5% (+/-0)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Some politicial observers already say trafficlight might be the better option of the FDP and some of their leading figures secretly prefer it. A red-green-yellow government would allow the Free Democrats to occupy the centrist or pro-business/solid budgets lane that otherwise the Union would do and pose as a "corrective" for SPD and Greens when it comes to economic growth. CDU/CSU may find themselves in further misery as they would seem more or less obsolete. Their "competence values" in polls have already massively declined when it comes to economic policy.

Also, Lindner isn't stupid and can read polls. In the most recent ZDF survey, even most FDP voters now prefer that option and think it more stands for renewal to saving Laschet into a Jamaica coalition.

Yes, the FDP could have a chance to prove their worth in an SPD coalition by preventing many leftist policies. That is far more electorally valuable than propping up a tired an unpopular CDU. It might give them more importance on the right vis-à-vis the Union which is essentially what they should want.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As it is also being reported, Markus Söder and the CSU probably don't want Jamaica because a Traffic light would give Söder the opportunity to run as Chancellor-candidate against SPD, Greens, and FDP in four years as opposed to a Jamaica coalition where Laschet (?) is Chancellor and the CSU can't really attack the Greens or the FDP in political campaigns.

[Hnv1]

Any Bremen ward map?
I’d like to see how my old areas in the viertel and close to the park voted. When I lived there it was such an SPD stronghold part for the Viertel (where I even met some KPD/MLPD voters)

[buritobr]

FDP is scheduled to meet with both SPD (afternoon) and Union (evening) today. SPD and Greens will also meet in the evening. FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his General Secretary Volker Wissing in recent comments aleady seem to slowly distance themselves from the Union. Wissing said something like "the Union must resolve whether they speak with one voice." Lindner stated: "CDU and CSU must clarify whether they actually want to lead a government. Some from within the CDU speculate their party might be back in the game after negotations for a trafficlight coalition failed. This is unconscionable for the country." Lindner wants a government formed before New Year's eve.

Meanwhile, 2017 SPD Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz called upon Laschet to resign after clearly losing the election. And even CDU Deputy leader, Health Minister and Laschet ally Jens Spahn demanded renewal of his party, both in terms of political contents and leadership. Whatever that means...

Hardly a surpirse, leadership of the Green Youth announced their staunch opposition to a Jamaica coalition and preference for a government led by Social Democrats.

Yeah, bottomline is that leading figures of the FDP continue to underline the greater ideological commonality with the CDU/CSU while at the same time starting to publicly question the readiness and willingness of the Union parties to enter (and lead) the next government. Could be considered a sign that the FDP is positioning itself for Traffic light and that the talks with the CDU serve the purpose of showing their own base that they had at least tried to make Jamaica work.

Some politicial observers already say trafficlight might be the better option of the FDP and some of their leading figures secretly prefer it. A red-green-yellow government would allow the Free Democrats to occupy the centrist or pro-business/solid budgets lane that otherwise the Union would do and pose as a "corrective" for SPD and Greens when it comes to economic growth. CDU/CSU may find themselves in further misery as they would seem more or less obsolete. Their "competence values" in polls have already massively declined when it comes to economic policy.

Also, Lindner isn't stupid and can read polls. In the most recent ZDF survey, even most FDP voters now prefer that option and think it more stands for renewal to saving Laschet into a Jamaica coalition.

I observed that during the campaign, the Spiegel was anti-SPD. But now, this magazine is much more for the Traffic Light than for the Jamaica. Maybe, they were anti-SPD during the campaign because they had fead of the red-red-green. But since this coalition is not possible anymore, they can support Scholz.

[EastAnglianLefty]

So far as I can tell, there doesn't seem to have been a great electoral variation between Franconia and Bavaria proper. Is this normal? I'm aware that there's still a fair degree of cultural difference between the two regions and that Franconia has a much larger Protestant population, but I don't know if that factors through into voting intention at all.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So far as I can tell, there doesn't seem to have been a great electoral variation between Franconia and Bavaria proper. Is this normal? I'm aware that there's still a fair degree of cultural difference between the two regions and that Franconia has a much larger Protestant population, but I don't know if that factors through into voting intention at all.

Well if you squint you can still perceive a certain variation between Franconia and the rest of Bavaria, but fundamentally yes, both are an almost endless landscape of safe CSU districts and have been for quite a while [outside of the two big cities of Nuremberg and Munich of course].
Upper Franconia in particular, but also Middle Franconia around Nuremberg in good years, used to be fertile enough ground for the SPD to win direct mandates, but those times are long gone; Coburg and Hof still went red in 1998 but that's about it. Perhaps it lingered on more at the local level - the city of Bayreuth had only SPD mayors continuously from 1948 to 2006 for example.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Well if you squint you can still perceive a certain variation between Franconia and the rest of Bavaria, but fundamentally yes, both are an almost endless landscape of safe CSU districts and have been for quite a while [outside of the two big cities of Nuremberg and Munich of course].
Upper Franconia in particular, but also Middle Franconia around Nuremberg in good years, used to be fertile enough ground for the SPD to win direct mandates, but those times are long gone; Coburg and Hof still went red in 1998 but that's about it. Perhaps it lingered on more at the local level - the city of Bayreuth had only SPD mayors continuously from 1948 to 2006 for example.

Nowitzki City in Lower Franconia voted Green in the last Bavarian state election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So far as I can tell, there doesn't seem to have been a great electoral variation between Franconia and Bavaria proper. Is this normal? I'm aware that there's still a fair degree of cultural difference between the two regions and that Franconia has a much larger Protestant population, but I don't know if that factors through into voting intention at all.

It depends on the party. For the CSU there is increasingly little difference (though, e.g., within Franconia the confessional pattern remains as clear as day), but it's important to note that a lot of this is down to the emergence of the Freie Wähler phenomenon, which has cut massively into the CSU bedrock in the non-metropolitan parts of Bavaria proper. There's probably a case for doing a national FW map as it makes a few things clear. For the SPD there are fairly significant differences between Upper and Middle Franconia and the rest of the state (and in some respects these are actually more pronounced than they were due to the electoral impact of the gentrification of Munich), it's just that on a national map this doesn't come across that strongly. Even within these regions their vote follows the pattern of old confessional divisions pretty neatly. For the Greens, there's no difference: they're strong in Upper Bavaria, in Middle Franconia, Lower Franconia and Bavarian Swabia because these places have the sorts of cities where they can thrive, and they're weak in Lower Bavaria and Upper Franconia because they do not. For the FDP there are important differences: Franconia is, in general, one of their weakest regions in the former West Germany (though so is Lower Bavaria...), while they are very strong in Upper Bavaria and in decent shape in Bavarian Swabia. The pattern of the AfD vote in Bavaria is interesting but does not map onto the Franconia/Bavaria division at all, while, curiously, even in collapse there's a bit of a link with Die Linke, but it's actually places in Lower Franconia where they have marginally higher totals as a rule.

[President Johnson]

While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

Lmao, goes my imagination too far to at least consider this could be a stab in the back move by Söder or someone close to him? The guy wants Laschet gone and no Jamaica coalition so that he run a "Bavaria first" campaign in 2023 against Chancellor Scholz and the trafficlight coalition and subsequently position himself for 2025.

[Middle-aged Europe]

While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

Lmao, goes my imagination too far to at least consider this could be a stab in the back move by Söder or someone close to him? The guy wants Laschet gone and no Jamaica coalition so that he run a "Bavaria first" campaign in 2023 against Chancellor Scholz and the trafficlight coalition and subsequently position himself for 2025.

Considering that it has been rumoured for years (even on Bavarian public media: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/csu-rivalen-seehofer-und-soeder-ziemlich-beste-feinde,QclPkBt) that Söder was the one who had leaked the existence of Seehofer's extramarital child to the BILD your assumption is probably entirely correct.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens also attack CDU for the FDP/BILD leak, saying they fear the same could happen with today's talks between them and the CDU:

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/gruene-kritisieren-union-101.html

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cem-oezdemir-und-juergen-trittin-zweifeln-an-verhandlungsfaehigkeit-der-union-a-6e0529ea-799b-4dd2-97b1-cf368075bc7c

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another FDP politician is not amused about the BILD leak:

https://www.twitter.com/sandra_weeser/status/1445055812502794258?ref_src=twsrc%5...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Election results by municipality map:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/ergebnisse-bundestagswahl-gemeinde-karte

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Anti-Semitism prevailing and pervasive in the SED stronghold of Leipzig:

https://twitter.com/ZentralratJuden/status/1445341988145008642

There are far more Muslim and Antifa Anti-Semites in Germany than there are Nazi Anti-Semites.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Election results by municipality map:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/ergebnisse-bundestagswahl-gemeinde-karte

I wonder how Habeck won the 1st congressional district with his Greens hardly winning any municipalities. He must be very popular there.
(I mean I was the only one to kinda predicted his win, but I am still surprised myself.)

[Sir Mohamed]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

Which is of course self-defeating prophecy, cause it is clear Laschet himself, or at least his image, is a roadblock to Jamaica. The Union would need to find a credible alternative to actually make it work. However knifing him will not happen if it is viewed as a concession of defeat rather than a move to improve their position, and therefore Jamaica becomes even more distant.

[Sir Mohamed]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

Which is of course self-defeating prophecy, cause it is clear Laschet himself, or at least his image, is a roadblock to Jamaica. The Union would need to find a credible alternative to actually make it work. However knifing him will not happen if it is viewed as a concession of defeat rather than a move to improve their position, and therefore Jamaica becomes even more distant.

Couldn't Lashet try to save himself by accepting the "junior role" in a grand coalition and take the vice chancellorship? That would also allow SPD to gain more leverage over the 2 smaller parties. It's always better to have another option. I know the electorate seems tired of grand coalitions, but as a tactical move, it wouldn't be that bad I guess?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anti-Semitism prevailing and pervasive in the SED stronghold of Leipzig:

https://twitter.com/ZentralratJuden/status/1445341988145008642

There are far more Muslim and Antifa Anti-Semites in Germany than there are Nazi Anti-Semites.

Aside from the fact that we don't know the political affiliation of the offender, the Left came in fourth in Leipzig with 13.7% of the second vote (/party list vote), almost tied with the AfD which got 13.3%.

Yes, the Left won the direct seat in Leipzig II  - as opposed to Leipzig I which went to the CDU with the Left again coming in fourth, this time behind the AfD candidate. Considering that out of 455.000 residents who were eligble to vote in either district a combined 66.000 voted for one of these two Left direct candidates there's about a 85% probability that the offender was either a SPD/CDU/Green/AfD/FDP/other party voter or didn't cast a vote at all in the recent election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

Which is of course self-defeating prophecy, cause it is clear Laschet himself, or at least his image, is a roadblock to Jamaica. The Union would need to find a credible alternative to actually make it work. However knifing him will not happen if it is viewed as a concession of defeat rather than a move to improve their position, and therefore Jamaica becomes even more distant.

Couldn't Lashet try to save himself by accepting the "junior role" in a grand coalition and take the vice chancellorship? That would also allow SPD to gain more leverage over the 2 smaller parties. It's always better to have another option. I know the electorate seems tired of grand coalitions, but as a tactical move, it wouldn't be that bad I guess?

The main problem is that SPD and CDU are tired of grand coalitions themselves and they have both ruled them out (unless Traffic light and Jamaica negotiations fail first, like back in 2017). This means your scenario could theoretically come to pass - in about six months from now. The obstacle is that Laschet probably couldn't hold on to the CDU chairmanship for that long though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The first round of talks are over!

Greens and FDP will now decide in the coming days whether further preliminary meetings with either SPD or CDU are necessary (God, I hope not.. everybody knows the CDU is in shambles, just get it over with) or whether they'll enter the next phase of trilateral meetings with one of the bigger parties.

Wait, CDU is still in the run? Looking at the results, they should accept defeat and try harder next time. That said, 16 of being the ruling party is more than enough.

I find it kind of questionble 2 smaller parties essentially picking the chancellor now. That said, as long as SPD leads, I'm fine.

Yes, the CDU is officially still in the run. Some observers say that is so because Greens and FDP need the possibility of a Jamaica coalition as a bargaining chip in upcoming negotiations with the SPD.

The CDU hasn't pulled out of it yet, because the possibility of a Jamacia coalition is the sole reason why Armin Laschet is still party chairman at the moment.

Which is of course self-defeating prophecy, cause it is clear Laschet himself, or at least his image, is a roadblock to Jamaica. The Union would need to find a credible alternative to actually make it work. However knifing him will not happen if it is viewed as a concession of defeat rather than a move to improve their position, and therefore Jamaica becomes even more distant.

Well, the reasoning is that if Laschet somehow manages to successfully negotiate a Jamaica coalition, his past transgressions and failures would be all forgiven. At least that is what Laschet himself and his remaining supporters are gambling on. Of course, they could be - and likely are - grasping at straws here.