🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[buritobr]

More than one poll showed that CDU has a small recovery, but at the expense of the FDP and not of the center-left parties.
The FDP had a surge some days ago. It had an average of 13% and now the average is at 11%. It is inside the margin of error. But a lot of polls showed this trend.

[Pericles]

How far behind are the CDU? Could a late swing or polling error mean they come first, or is a SPD win pretty likely now?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

How far behind are the CDU? Could a late swing or polling error mean they come first, or is a SPD win pretty likely now?

Some polls are within the margin of error, some are not. Most reputable pollsters have an SPD lead of 3-5%. There has been a slight movement in favor of the Union at the expense of the FDP, but there is not enough time. Federal election polls are always off to some degree, so there is always a surprise: Most underestimated the Union in 2013, most heavily overestimated the Union in 2017. Some things can always happen. But at the moment, I'd rather be Olaf Scholz than Armin Laschet.

[President Johnson]

How far behind are the CDU? Could a late swing or polling error mean they come first, or is a SPD win pretty likely now?

Some polls are within the margin of error, some are not. Most reputable pollsters have an SPD lead of 3-5%. There has been a slight movement in favor of the Union at the expense of the FDP, but there is not enough time. Federal election polls are always off to some degree, so there is always a surprise: Most underestimated the Union in 2013, most heavily overestimated the Union in 2017. Some things can always happen. But at the moment, I'd rather be Olaf Scholz than Armin Laschet.

Yeah, the Union's bleeding is stopped so far, but as I said earlier, there wasn't much room to fall anymore. By the way, INSA did another poll asking voters how "safe" their preferences are, and 17% said they vote CDU/CSU no matter what. SPD is at 20% in that category, while 39% and 46%, respectively, could imagine voting CDU/CSU or SPD. Just 22% were a hard No for the SPD (lowest share of any party), and 30% the same for the Union.

All most recent polls have the Union at 22% now, while the SPD is between 25% and 27%, like this one (even if there is a small movement to Laschet, it's not enough so far and a lot of people already voted by mail):

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1440312933632806927

However, I'll still be nervous as hell on Sunday as I'll be at a SPD election night party in our county seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

A last minute shift from the Greens to SPD would do nicely, a narrative that the Union are "catching up" might not do any harm there.

[parochial boy]

A last minute shift from the Greens to SPD would do nicely, a narrative that the Union are "catching up" might not do any harm there.

The risk seems to have become a bit more distant in the last couple of days, but it definitely wouldn't be a good thing if that leads to FDP sneaking ahead of the Greens in the end. The Greens need to finish in front order to minimise any eventual impact the Liberals might want to have on economic policy.

[buritobr]

The polls will close at 6pm local time. Soon after that, the TV stations will show the Prognose.
This video explains how the Prognose is calculated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgnmwbXH_24

An exit poll is conducted by sample. Voters are interviewed in 400 polling stations in the country. They answer a questionaire in which they say their vote, their gender, their age, their profession. But some votes are sent by mail. And the demographics of people who send their votes by mail is different to the demographics of the people who go to the polling station. So, the data of the exit poll receive an adjustiment according to these difference of demographics.

[Astatine]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

[CumbrianLefty]

A last minute shift from the Greens to SPD would do nicely, a narrative that the Union are "catching up" might not do any harm there.

The risk seems to have become a bit more distant in the last couple of days, but it definitely wouldn't be a good thing if that leads to FDP sneaking ahead of the Greens in the end. The Greens need to finish in front order to minimise any eventual impact the Liberals might want to have on economic policy.

Though of course the FDP appear to be dropping in the polls themselves, so.....

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

On this note, will the failure of the Greens to submit a valid list in the Saarland have any effect at all?

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

On this note, will the failure of the Greens to submit a valid list in the Saarland have any effect at all?

The Greens currently have one member in the Bundestag from the Saarland. They could have hoped to double their result if they would have had a list, they could have hoped for three if the SPD swept the districts and they would have been granted an Ausgleichsmandat (compensatory seat).

[Astatine]

I don't really wish the AfD to overperform anywhere, but if they do, may it be Baden-Württenberg. The statewide AfD list has 12 nominees only, which means that any seat the party would get above that number would remain empty. Glad they're actively working to reduce the size of the Bundestag.

On this note, will the failure of the Greens to submit a valid list in the Saarland have any effect at all?

The Greens would have needed ~14 % for a second seat here, and barring a complete collapse, they would have probably retained their sole member from Saarland in the Bundestag. Last time, they received about 35,000 votes over here, out of 3.7 million.

The PR disaster is horrible though, and Saarland will be the first state heading to the polls after the federal elections. The state party got 4 % in the last state elections and would have probably made big gains next year, but now the Greens would be happy to even enter the state legislature. Besides, no other party in Saarland considers them a potential coalition partner anymore - at least for now.

[Alcibiades]

With regards to constituencies to watch, I’ll be keeping an eye on the big cities in the south. Pre-reunification, the SPD always used to win some seats in Munich, Nuremberg and Stuttgart even if they were losing nationally, but in the 21st century, they’ve really faded away there - this year provides a good opportunity to reverse that. The Greens will probably do well in Stuttgart, but it will be interesting to see how many seats in Munich the SPD can win.

[President Johnson]

Another YouGov poll, September 23.

SPD: 25%
Union: 21% (+1)
GRÜNE: 14% (-1)
AfD: 12% (+1)
FDP: 11% (+1)
LINKE: 7% (-1)
FW: 2% (-1)
Others: 7%

The same poll also finds that 22% are absolutely certain to vote SPD, CDU/CSU is only at 17% here. Furthermore, 36% answered to be "open" to vote for the Union while 46% say the same about the SPD. 40% say they wouldn't vote for the Union; for the SPD that number is 28%.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1440920275978182657

[parochial boy]

Bavaria has been trending fairly steadily left for a while now. Baden-Württemberg hasn't but did quite sharply in 2017 in a way that can't just be explained by Kretschmann or what happened in the East. So it'll be interesting to see if that develops into a trend. Instinctively you'd kind of think so.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

https://live.daserste.de

[Sozialliberal]

Just came back from Esslingen, near Stuttgart at a SPD rally. Olaf Scholz gave a great speech about several policy proposals, especially securing jobs and managing the transformation to a corbon neutral economy of the future. He even was humerous at times and certainly not the Scholzomat from a few years ago. At the end, we were able to take a couple of photos with him.

Scholz surprised me and many others during the last months. I really didn't expect those gains for the SPD in the polls. Kudos to him!

Are the FDP really going for a Jamaica over icing CDU in opposition, or is it a negotiation trick anticipating the traffic light coalition?

A large part of the FDP's base is rather conservative. They view CDU/CSU as their natural governing partners and SPD/Greens as the socialist baddies. These people already feel uncomfortable in a coalition with the Greens. I'm not sure if they can handle being in government with the SPD and the Greens at the same time. Personally, I believe a traffic light coalition should be an option for the FDP if it wants to be a true reform party of the center. It will eventually happen at federal level, but I'm not sure if it'll be this year. I know, there's already a traffic light government in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, but RLP has been an outlier in terms of SPD/FDP cooperation since the 1990s.

Additionally, FDP chairman and top candidate Lindner frequently praises chancellor candidate Laschet (CDU). He says Laschet is a much better team player than Merkel who only thinks of her own party. Remember how the FDP got destroyed in the 2013 election? The FDP has been working together with Laschet in the NRW state government since 2017, and the state party's experience with him has been very positive.

[buritobr]

The link to the debate in which the 7 parties's Spitzenkandidat are participating (same number of goals the German national soccer team scored in the semifinal of the 2014 World Cup, one goal for each party)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCS2YbH3RjQ

[President Johnson]

Meh, seems at least some small Union surge in the final ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll just released.

SPD: 25,0%
Union: 23,0% (+1,0)
GRÜNE: 16,5% (+0,5)
FDP: 11,0%
AfD: 10,0% (-1,0)
LINKE: 6,0%
FW: 3,0% (NEU)
Others: 5,5% (-3,5)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1441128228836446212


Chancellor preference:

Scholz (SPD): 47% (-1)
Laschet (CDU): 20% (-2)
Baerbock (GRÜNE): 16%
Don't know: 17% (+3)

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1441130717522669570


64% say Scholz is up to the chancellorship, 30% say no. Only 26% say the same about Laschet while 67% don't think he's up for the job. Baerbock is at 25/69% underwater, though it's now very unlikely she becomes chancellor anyway.

[brucejoel99]

Having not paid as much attention to this election as I would've liked to, would it be right to state that the only mathematically possible coalitions that'd also be politically possible (i.e., not including AfD) can be traffic-light (SPD/Green/FDP), Jamaica (Union/Green/FDP), GroKo but with the SPD heading it, & R2G (SPD/Green/Linke), with traffic-light at about a 2/3rds chance, R2G at about a 1/3rd chance, & reverse-GroKo & Jamaica being extremely unlikely?

Likewise, would it be right to state that any coalition negotiations - but especially if they potentially result in failure & another GroKo a-la 2017 - will likely drag into 2022 & thus entail that Merkel remains caretaker Chancellor in the meantime?

[Хahar 🤔]

Others will be able to make a more definite statement than I can, but I find it hard to imagine that (barring a truly unworkable Bundestag) German political culture would permit an extended delay in government formation like what we see regularly in Belgium or the Netherlands.

[brucejoel99]

Others will be able to make a more definite statement than I can, but I find it hard to imagine that (barring a truly unworkable Bundestag) German political culture would permit an extended delay in government formation like what we see regularly in Belgium or the Netherlands.

Wasn't there a 6-month delay just 4 years ago?

[Хahar 🤔]

Others will be able to make a more definite statement than I can, but I find it hard to imagine that (barring a truly unworkable Bundestag) German political culture would permit an extended delay in government formation like what we see regularly in Belgium or the Netherlands.

Wasn't there a 6-month delay just 4 years ago?

I'll be totally honest, I forgot it's 2021 and not 2020 so I misinterpreted what dragging into 2022 meant.

[Bootes Void]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-rigged-election-bs-is-now-haunting-the-german-election

BURGSTÄDT, Germany—Björn Höcke, an influential state-level leader for the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland, took the stage at a campaign event in the small city of Burgstädt in Saxony ahead of this weekend’s election. He began his speech with the kind of universal appeal politicians often make in the final weeks of a campaign, encouraging supporters to go out and vote.

But Höcke—head of a radical faction within the AfD known simply as “the Wing” and a man who once described Berlin’s Holocaust Memorial as a “monument of shame”—did not stop there. Not only should the faithful cast their ballots for the party, he said, but they should also make sure to do it in person and not by mail, which, he alleged, is vulnerable to fraud and manipulation. “Anyone who has an interest in fair elections and secret elections should go to their polling place,” he explained.

Germany heads to the polls this Sunday in an unusually open and unpredictable general election that could determine the country’s direction for decades. For the first time in 16 years, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has helmed the country since 2005, is not standing again.

The three candidates—Armin Laschet, from Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, Olaf Scholz from the center-left Social Democrats, and Annalena Baerbock of the Greens—are locked in a volatile race for the nation’s highest office. In the final days of the campaign, Scholz’s SPD is in the lead with 25 percent, followed closely by Laschet’s CDU. The Greens, however, have recently fallen behind.

Parties that advocate for postal voting, Höcke continued—including the Greens and the SPD—were essentially condoning voter fraud. He then brought up the example of an unproven story making the rounds this year about a young Green supporter allegedly casting their grandmother’s vote for the party without her knowledge.

If wide-scale election manipulation could occur in the United States, he said, drawing on the dizzying number of false claims made by President Trump during his 2020 presidential campaign, “then I know that it’s possible in the most important country in Europe.”

[bigic]

I don't think this article needs a separate thread - it should be posted in the German election thread.