🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Pick Up the Phone]

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Sorry to take away your illusions, but 'finding compromises' is the essence of politics. Especially in a country like Germany where everything is about consensus and coalition-building. It's true that many people love authoritarian gestures and have an unhealthy preference for strongman politics. But this is not how our political system works.

Besides, it's mainly a performative act to fool the masses. I consider it naive to assume that Söder's and Laschet's governing(!) approach would be that different. If you really believe that Söder would tell Erdogan to "**** himself" whereas Laschet would show himself subservient, you underestimate the practical constraints that top politicians find themselves confronted with.

To be honest, I am pretty happy that 'we' don't throw a tantrum just because Erdogan seated Ursula von der Leyen on the couch. It is a sign of political and diplomatic maturity which conservatives and right-wingers often lack these days. 

[Former President tack50]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Thing is, Germans do want another "weiter so" candidate? Isn't Merkel super popular? With sky high approvals and what not?

[Omega21]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Thing is, Germans do want another "weiter so" candidate? Isn't Merkel super popular? With sky high approvals and what not?

This is a bit of a complicated issue tbh, but no, most CDU voters don't want a new copy-paste Merkel.

Laschet also knows this, that's why yesterday he said specifically in 2 interviews: We don't want " weiter so", but to change many things and keep some of the good from the past.

Also, I am starting to feel like Söder will also be heavily pushed in the election, and Laschet already said he will constantly consult with Söder. This is probably the only way for him to squeeze out a win. The only question is if he will be able to convince people Söder will have a real influence on his decisions. If so, many could still vote for him in order to prevent a Green Govt.

[buritobr]

I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens. Probably, Annalena Baerbock will receive more attenction of the media because she is young, pretty, she has an interesting biography.
Wouldn't be wiser for the CDU to wait Annalena's momentum in the media fade away and then announce its candidate? In this case, Armin Laschet would have more media coverage in the few days after the nomination.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens.

That was fully unintentional ... that Söder didn't back down after the decision of the party presidium last week created a dynamic of an open exchange of blows that spiraled out of control, gave bad publicity and weakened Laschet by the hour. So he and his allies pulled out the full stop with the final vote in the CDU national Committee, after the deadline both candidates had agreed on ("We will find a solution until or at least at the weekend") had already expired. Obviously, they did not find a solution earlier than that and waiting some other news cycles would have left more damage for them.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens.

That was fully unintentional ... that Söder didn't back down after the decision of the party presidium last week created a dynamic of an open exchange of blows that spiraled out of control, gave bad publicity and weakened Laschet by the hour. So he and his allies pulled out the full stop with the final vote in the CDU national Committee, after the deadline both candidates had agreed on ("We will find a solution until or at least at the weekend") had already expired. Obviously, they did not find a solution earlier than that and waiting some other news cycles would have left more damage for them.

I hope the Union will have decided by the next election that their chancellor candidate is to be found through a joint primary.

[Tender Branson]

Blackblue Bayern is soon Green Bayern !



Vote for Chancellor in Bayern:



!!!

[Tender Branson]

These results out of Bayern would indicate ca. a 28-24 Union vs. Green lead in Germany right now.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

These results out of Bayern would indicate ca. a 28-24 Union vs. Green lead in Germany right now.

I wonder how the results for the Bavarian Landtag election would be if it took place at the same day as the Bundestag election. It would have look like a West Virginian (or Arkansas 2008). The Söder supporters will be the PUMA's of the German elections.

[TheSaint250]

How has national polling looked for Freie Wähler? I assume they're relatively short of 5%, but I haven't seen any polls with them explicitly separated

[President Johnson]

How has national polling looked for Freie Wähler? I assume they're relatively short of 5%, but I haven't seen any polls with them explicitly separated

Pretty much irrelevant at this point. They're among "others".

There was a new poll yesterday:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1385679985747374081

[Mike88]

Yikes, SPD at 13%...

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1386065566377680897

[DL]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

[jaichind]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

[Tender Branson]

It would be pretty cool if the Annalena-Greens beat the Union in September.

But it would also mean that Germany once again would have a different government constellation than Austria.

It never had the same as we since WW2 (NSDAP).

[President Johnson]

It would be pretty cool if the Annalena-Greens beat the Union in September.

But it would also mean that Germany once again would have a different government constellation than Austria.

It never had the same as we since WW2 (NSDAP).

Well, the most likely outcome is still Union/Greens under Chancellor Laschet. So finally there would be the same coalition constellation as in Austria.

The Green surge gives me Martin Schulz vibes, who started losing ground once he missed to put out more detailed policy plans and had three state elections going not well. Greens will definitely get a good result, but I'm not sure they can overtake the Union.

[Pick Up the Phone]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

There is no automatism that the junior partner in a coalition loses like the SPD did. Grüne-SPD-FDP is the more probable outcome in such a scenario but I have no doubt that the CDU would also agree to Grüne-CDU if they had to. They simply love power too much.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The Green surge gives me Martin Schulz vibes, who started losing ground once he missed to put out more detailed policy plans and had three state elections going not well. Greens will definitely get a good result, but I'm not sure they can overtake the Union.

I think there a couple differences with the 2017 SPD surge. Unlike during the Schulz effect, it’s not just the SPD/Greens surging, it’s also the CDU/CSU crashing. Forsa has them all the way down on 21%, seven points behind the Greens; while in 2017 the Union never fell more than one point behind the SPD and managed to stay in the low 30s (where they had been polling already for months before the Schulz effect).

Now, it’s just one pollster. But, INSA also has the CDU crashing below 25%, while Kantar’s fieldwork barely covered Armin Laschet’s Chancellor candidacy. If the Kantar survey had been conducted one or two days later it probably would have shown something more along the lines of Forsa. We will have to wait for more numbers to confirm it, but there seems to be a trend.

Another difference is the state election calendar. We just have Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of us (before the federal election, anyways), which, while being an Eastern state means isn’t fertile ground for the Greens, is essentially guaranteed to provide an increased result for the party, according to current polling perhaps even doubling its present standing. In any case, it’s impossible for the Greens to suffer anything akin to the blows the SPD got in 2017, when they lost a popular Minister-President in their heartland and largest state in Germany while at the same time enduring disappointing (and decreased) results in the Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein.

Thirdly, while Baerbock’s candidacy, much like Schulz’s, has been very positively received; one shouldn’t discount the fact that Laschet’s reception has been extremely negative so far, maybe even outweighing the positive coverage of Annalena Baerbock. This obviously wasn’t a factor with Merkel, who was an incumbent Chancellor completely known to and well-liked by the electorate. Similar to polling developments, it’s not just the SPD/Greens doing well/choosing a good candidate, it’s also the CDU/CSU doing badly/choosing a bad candidate.

But of course, the Greens could still lose their momentum during the next five months. It wouldn’t have to be the same process that happened to Schulz, it’s a very different election. And, after all, it wouldn’t be the first time a Green surge wears off (Fukushima 2011, EP election 2019), and the party is quite accustomed to over-polling. If it were for polling, the Greens wouldn’t be the smallest party in the Bundestag for four elections in a row right now. Plus, the CDU/CSU has proved to be quite resilient over the years, and Laschet, being currently at the bottom, shouldn’t have anywhere to go but upwards. We will have to wait and see.

[CumbrianLefty]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

There is no automatism that the junior partner in a coalition loses like the SPD did. Grüne-SPD-FDP is the more probable outcome in such a scenario but I have no doubt that the CDU would also agree to Grüne-CDU if they had to. They simply love power too much.

They have quite possibly reached the point where they would find being out of power very difficult.

[buritobr]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

[Yeahsayyeah]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

[Hnv1]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

[Astatine]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-climate-law-is-partly-unconstitutional-top-court-rules/a-57369917

Germany's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that the country's 2019 climate protection act is in part unconstitutional.

"The regulations irreversibly postpone high emission reduction burdens until periods after 2030," the court said.

It added that the law does not explain in enough detail how greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced after 2031.

The judges gave the legislature until the end of next year to draw up clearer reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions for the period after 2030. [...]

"The challenged provisions do violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young," the court said in a statement.

"Virtually every freedom is potentially affected by these future emission reduction obligations because almost all areas of human life are still associated with the emission of greenhouse gases and are thus threatened by drastic restrictions after 2030," the statement said.

[Hnv1]

The Constitutional Court decided today, that the German anti-climate-change-law is unconstitutional for not being ambitious enough to save the rights and freedoms of young and future generations.

Link to decision please. Infringing on rights by omission, now that’s something.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-climate-law-is-partly-unconstitutional-top-court-rules/a-57369917

Germany's Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that the country's 2019 climate protection act is in part unconstitutional.

"The regulations irreversibly postpone high emission reduction burdens until periods after 2030," the court said.

It added that the law does not explain in enough detail how greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced after 2031.

The judges gave the legislature until the end of next year to draw up clearer reduction targets for greenhouse gas emissions for the period after 2030. [...]

"The challenged provisions do violate the freedoms of the complainants, some of whom are still very young," the court said in a statement.

"Virtually every freedom is potentially affected by these future emission reduction obligations because almost all areas of human life are still associated with the emission of greenhouse gases and are thus threatened by drastic restrictions after 2030," the statement said.

If I understand Section 1 of the ruling correctly, future generations have constitutional status in German Law?

[Cassius]

Oh God.

If Anna Baerbock is elected Chancellor I’m going to have to go and live in a shed in the Forest of Dean for a minimum of three months to avoid UK media hot takes. Sort it out CDU bitte.