🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Omega21]

Wonderful results, let's hope Söder can get the party back on track, without weak wishy-washy politics.

So, once and for all, those two polls finally made it clear: Certain Green extremists prefer Laschet to Söder just because they know that their party's odds of emerging victorious out of the federal election raise significantly with the former as CDU chancellor candidate, even if they vehemently deny this fact (like they deny all facts of the world)... 

It's the case with some SPD voters as well.

I don't get it either.

I don't support the AfD, but if they polled at 40% with candidate x and 20% with candidate y, I would of course objectively say the best way for them to go forward is with candidate x, regardless of my distaste of their party.

Now, I would get it if they said "I hope they nominate Laschet so that SPD/Greens get more votes", but many seem to be sticking to the "It's the best way for them" argument instead of being honest.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The other scenario, with Söder as Chancellor candidate, CDU/CSU crushes it with 38%, 19 points ahead of SPD:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1383105688717639680
 

The Union and FDP would have 46% in this scenario, would that be enough for a majority?

Oh, boy, I love it!

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=439320

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the poll with Laschet, is it just me or is "Traffic light" an underrated possibility for coalition? I realize red-red-green isn't necessarily that likely but replacing Linke with the FDP seems like an easy way to finally bring back the CDU into opposition.

[Lord Halifax]

Looking at the poll with Laschet, is it just me or is "Traffic light" an underrated possibility for coalition? I realize red-red-green isn't necessarily that likely but replacing Linke with the FDP seems like an easy way to finally bring back the CDU into opposition.

It's hardly "underrated" since everyone keeps talking about it, but it's more complicated on the federal level than the state level. FDP is to the right of CDU on a number of economic issues.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=439320

Nope. Merz emerged the clear winner out of the contest. (68%) 😒

[buritobr]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

[Omega21]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

Yes. Laschet was nominated by a CDU backroom vote just now, in spite of massive support for Söder in the voter base.

[buritobr]

We will see an interesting german federal election after 16 years. 3 human beings have possility to become the next chancelor.
Few people outside Germany (only german politics fans) cared about the election in 2009, 2013 and 2017, that everybody knew that were choosing no more than Merkel's coalition partner.

[President Johnson]

Trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz would be my preferred model, but I'm kinda skeptical such a coalition can be formed no matter whether Greens or SPD are the "senior partner". Mainly because there are a number of programmatic splits between Free Democrats and SPD/Greens. For example, the FDP de facto ruled out any tax hikes while SPD/Greens both support tax increases for upper incomes. Success of such talks would probably succeed if Green and SPD moderates have the upper hand within their respective parties. Guys like me could reach an agreement with Christian Lindner, but it gets more complicated with the left-wingers. We'll have to see.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz would be my preferred model, but I'm kinda skeptical such a coalition can be formed no matter whether Greens or SPD are the "senior partner". Mainly because there are a number of programmatic splits between Free Democrats and SPD/Greens. For example, the FDP de facto ruled out any tax hikes while SPD/Greens both support tax increases for upper incomes. Success of such talks would probably succeed if Green and SPD moderates have the upper hand within their respective parties. Guys like me could reach an agreement with Christian Lindner, but it gets more complicated with the left-wingers. We'll have to see.

I would not object to a traffic light coalition either. But I think the most important issue is indeed who would be the senior partner in such a constellation. Accepting Chancellor Baerbock means that the SPD is officially conceding the leadership of the center-left camp to the Grünen. And that cannot really be in the strategic interest of German Social Democracy.

Not sure if issues would really matter that much (they rarely do). The FDP leadership is way too much interested in governing, and a traffic light coalition is their only viable option for the foreseeable future. CDU/CSU-FDP won't have a majority anytime soon, and Jamaica works perfectly well without the FDP. They need this coalition if they don't want to remain in perpetual opposition.

[buritobr]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

Yes, you told, there is no legal obligation. But it is very hard that the parties break the promise.

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384550418026573832

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384603909306691590

[Pick Up the Phone]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

Yes, you told, there is no legal obligation. But it is very hard that the parties break the promise.

Definitely. But many things can happen in theory. Be it a major scandal, be it difficult coalition negotiations in which one party won't agree to support the other party's nominee etc.

There was the potential for such a situation in 2005 when Gerhard Schröder insisted to stay in power but the CDU (whose candidate Angela Merkel had just received an extremely disappointing result) wanted Schröder out. Some people actually proposed the following compromise: Give the Chancellorship to the SPD but only under the condition that they propose a different candidate than Schröder. However, Schröder was ditched by his own party before this option could be considered.

[Lord Halifax]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

True, but it still covers the trainwreck nomination process by CDU.

[Lord Halifax]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

True, but it still covers the trainwreck nomination process by CDU.

Yes, but ignoring who a clear majority of voters, and almost certainly also party members and MPs, wanted is a far more decisive event. I doubt the nomination process itself would have influenced the polls much if they had allowed their parliamentary group to elect Söder. The result of the nomination process (the candidate) matters far more than the process, only media types and political junkies really care about the procedure, most ordinary people don't.

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls about the events of the last few days and hours:

No, the INSA poll was conducted before the CDU board "anointed" Laschet, so no point in comparing the two polls.

True, but it still covers the trainwreck nomination process by CDU.

Yes, but ignoring who a clear majority of voters, and almost certainly also party members and MPs, wanted is a far more decisive event. I doubt the nomination process itself would have influenced the polls much if they had allowed their parliamentary group to elect Söder. The result of the nomination process (the candidate) matters far more than the process, only media types and political junkies really care about the procedure, most ordinary people don't.

Fair point. However, I believe that if even Söder was the nominee, the CDU/CSU would probably take a hit as it was a complicated nomination. However, here's the INSA poll, conducted on the same day as the Forsa poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1384605081446801417

[Tender Branson]

Interesting developments.

It would be stunning if Annalena's Greens were to win, but that's a big if (but with the clownish Lush@, you never know).

In that case, it would probably mean a Greens-SPD-FDP government and Germany would once again have another coalition as Austria. Only if Lush@ slightly wins and forms a Black-Green government, this would happen (maybe).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Omega21]

LOL

Laschet just literally swapped the party power balance with a single move.

[President Johnson]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

[Omega21]

While the way Laschet got the nomination deserves a lot of criticism, it's kinda ridiculous the Union is losing far more support in polls with this move than much more serious (ongoing) scandals. Like the so called "mask affairs" in which rank and file politicans enrich themselves from a pandemic, Spahn's missmanagement and especially Andi Scheuer's embarrassing and total incompetence as Transportation Minister. The public is responding like Laschet is either some extreme ideologue or had a ton of personal baggage, when neither is the case. That this approach to the nomination appears worse than the issues above is also, at least partially, a result of inadequate press coverage. Laschet deserves criticism for the nominating process, but the hate he's getting is inappropriate in my opinion.

It's not hate, more so anger at the disconnect with the voters and disappointment at yet another "weiter so" candidate.

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

We're literally getting crapped on by everyone around us. Hell, Turkey explores EU waters like it's their backyard: we do nothing. They humiliate our leaders publicly: we do nothing. Countries ban exports of vaccines to the EU, while we're still exporting to them: we do nothing.

Not even gonna talk about Ukraine or anything else, if we can't protect an EU member or ensure we get vaccines as fast as other western countries, it's pointless to talk about anything else out there.