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Omega21
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« Reply #400 on: September 30, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »

I was just answering your arguments about miraculous fuel which natural gas according to you is, never mentioned that gas from USA is somehow better.

It is miraculous fuel, at least until we can get something else which is 100% sustainable (wind and solar do not work all the time), or we can just build more nuclear.



And yes, it is even more miraculous when it comes from Russia because it does not need a big ass ship to bring it half way across the world.
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« Reply #401 on: September 30, 2019, 04:05:40 PM »

I was just answering your arguments about miraculous fuel which natural gas according to you is, never mentioned that gas from USA is somehow better.

It is miraculous fuel, at least until we can get something else which is 100% sustainable (wind and solar do not work all the time), or we can just build more nuclear.



And yes, it is even more miraculous when it comes from Russia because it does not need a big ass ship to bring it half way across the world.

Air pollution is one thing, greenhouse gases are other thing. And obviously air pollution is important problem, CO2 emissions are much more complex and more important issue. As I said methane is still a very dangerous greenhouse gas, and producing electrical energy from natural gas still cause carbon dioxide emissions. When you look on data on CO2 emissions per kWh by energy source you can see that natural gas is still generating a lot of CO2, not on the coal level but still outperforming any renewables or nuclear energy.



So no, natural gas is not a miraculous fuel. Any implementation of gas fueled power plants as replacement for coal power plants might work only in the short term. Not even mentioning the fact that would require building new power plants, are gas powered power plants in Europe are not that numerous. 
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urutzizu
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« Reply #402 on: November 03, 2019, 06:38:43 PM »

Not much interesting going on here. The Government will have a little more fiscal room then previously thought, as it looks like Germany might just dodge a recession again: after shrinking in the second quarter, it looks like the German economy will just flatline in the third with 0% growth, as opposed to the previously projected decline of 0.3%. This means that a desperately needed stimulus is off the table for now, so the SPD is continuing to push the Basic Minimum Pension - but the Coalition remains deadlocked. A decision was supposed to be made on Monday- it has been pushed back again.

Otherwise Die Linke will elect new Bundestag fraction leaders. Unlike say a Chief Whip in the UK, these are fairly important positions - second only the the party chairmen/woman.

The Race for the male leader is not particularly interesting - Dietmar Bartsch will easily be reelected. He is a very inoffensive guy - and when I say that I mean it - he is very boring and not particularly charismatic - but nobody really dislikes him either, so he is safe. He is from the moderate wing of the Party.

On the female side however, things are shaping up to be quite interesting: previously the sole candidate was Caren Lay - the vice chairwoman. She is neither on the radical, nor on the reformist wing. Now Amira Mohamed Ali, a MdB of Egyptian descent has also entered the race. She is on the far-left of the Party.


Website des Bundestags

One the face of it none of this is terribly significant - but between the lines it is a testament to the internal crisis within Die Linke. The former holder of the fraction co-leadership was Sahra Wagenknecht, the most controversial name in the party, until she resigned due to "health reasons". To most however, she was bullied out of the party.

The problem in the party for long now has been this: There is a grassroots membership that is very, very leftwing on Immigration and Multiculturalism - the Antifa people and the Linksjugend Solid especially- and many working class voters, especially in the East who feel very, very differently about that. At the same time however, they also rely on voters from two other constituencies - Students and Working Class Migrants - who again feel differently about it. Its the famous Quadratur des Kreises.

Sahra Wagenknecht, who was also the main Spitzenkandidatin in the 2017 elections (jointly with Bartsch so.. de facto her alone ) tried to turn the Linke on Migration to a more restrictive position - in the TV Debates even openly repudiating the Party manifesto which stated "Open Borders" and "No deportations".
Since then however she faced the onslaught from the Party Leaders, Kipping especially, and resigned. Amira Mohamed Ali is very blunt about that she will not allow another Wagenknecht:

Quote
In times of blatant racism and antisemitism it is of utmost importance to show on which side we are really on
- Announcing her Candidature

A thinly veiled swipe at the supposedly "Querfront" Ideology of Wagenknecht. Also of course - her background - as a Arab Woman to stand for what was once the party of the east.

Not that the Wagenknecht-bashing and going full open borders has been a particularly fruitful strategy. Despite the demise of the SPD and constant Grand Coalition - a situation that should be a heavenly gift for the Party - the Linke have been stagnating at a consistent 7-9% in the polls and getting beaten up badly in every state election in its eastern heartlands - except crucially Thuringa - where there is a very moderate Left Premier with a correspondingly moderate immigration policy.

The election will be on Nov. 12, but the real reckoning for the Party will come in 2021. Difficult decisions ahead, about what party the Left want to be. But in that, they are just a microcosm of the traditional European left.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #403 on: November 03, 2019, 08:09:42 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2019, 08:23:45 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

Not that the Wagenknecht-bashing and going full open borders has been a particularly fruitful strategy. Despite the demise of the SPD and constant Grand Coalition - a situation that should be a heavenly gift for the Party - the Linke have been stagnating at a consistent 7-9% in the polls and getting beaten up badly in every state election in its eastern heartlands - except crucially Thuringa - where there is a very moderate Left Premier with a correspondingly moderate immigration policy.

The election will be on Nov. 12, but the real reckoning for the Party will come in 2021. Difficult decisions ahead, about what party the Left want to be. But in that, they are just a microcosm of the traditional European left.

Well it became a "heavenly gift" for another party: the GRÜNEN. Sure, their rise is mostly related to the heightened prominence of the climate crisis, but there are also a a lot of young and urban voters who see the GRÜNEN as the only party that doesn't participate in normalizing the AfD's paranoid populism. Wagenknecht's infamous lines like Wer Gastrecht missbraucht hat Gastrecht verwirkt ("Whoever abuses their guest's rights has forfeited their guest's rights") were probably a major turn off for these groups.  

But you're right, the LINKE has to make some decisions about its future role in German politics. Is has to ask itself if a more restrictive migration policy is really the right tool to reconvert a substantial number of AfD voters. And if it really makes sense to jeopardize votes from big cities, student towns, and migrant communities in exchange. It certainly doesn't make sense to me (especially with changing demographics in mind) but who knows. Yet apart from this entirely tactical discussion, the LINKE should also contemplate if turning against those most at the margins (migrants and refugees) is something an openly socialist party can and should do. Not refugees are the problem in Germany, xenophobia is.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #404 on: November 04, 2019, 08:39:55 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2019, 08:46:24 AM by Ye Olde Europe »

What I find noteworthy about Wagenknecht is that even her anti-immigration stance can probably be traced back to her more authoritarian, old school state-socialist leanings.

More than anyone else in the Left she always seemed to be stuck in the 1980s politically and whenever she clashed with the rest of her party it was due to the fact that she clung to the more orthodox ideological views the rest of the PDS/Left tried to overcome. In the 1990s and 2000s this mostly applied to her uncritical, more positive appraisal of the perished GDR system. Starting with the 2010s this changed to her restrictive positioning on immigration.

In that context, it's noteworthy that communist East Germany had pretty restrictive immigration policies too. Not only was almost nobody allowed to leave the country (not on a permanent basis anyway), the regime also refused to let many people from abroad enter and stay. There was some immigration from Vietnam (minor in numbers compared to West Germany), but the East German government was very careful not to integrate them too much with the rest of the population and society. The idea was to segregate them and eventually return them to their home country (which never actually happened). This was IMO also one of several factors that also contributed to the popularity of right-wing views and the eventual rise of the AfD post-1990.  East Germany was an example of a "ethnically homogenous", communist society.

Personally, I never really met a lot Left Party supporters/members who were big fans of Wagenknecht's immigration stances. But maybe this plays better in Saxony than it does in Berlin. I used to know a Left member who works at the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation who always resorted to a "but Boris Palmer is even worse!" defense when the topic came up in discussions with me.

In my opinion, it would also certainly be a matter of debate whether Wagenknecht's stance was in fact a pretty dumb one from a purely strategic point of view. On one hand, it alienated supporters of more liberal immigration policies, while on the other hand it's unclear whether it motivated people to vote for the Left Party in larger numbers since it was obvious that Wagenknecht's views were only a minority position within the party and caused a lot of discord there. I mean, if we come back to Boris Palmer for a minute: I doubt that anyone votes Green because of him, but I met a number of people who refuse to vote Green because of Palmer. The thumb rule is: Whichever position a political party holds, you better make sure that it is a uncontroversial one within that party, because people usually don't vote for parties who don't even seem to agree on what they want.
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crals
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« Reply #405 on: November 04, 2019, 10:13:49 AM »

Could you please elaborate on Boris Palmer? I'd have thought someone with restrictive views on immigration wouldn't go far in the German Greens.
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« Reply #406 on: November 04, 2019, 10:51:16 AM »

Could you please elaborate on Boris Palmer? I'd have thought someone with restrictive views on immigration wouldn't go far in the German Greens.

Over the past few years, Palmer has acquired himself quite a reputation for being the Green who regularly comes out with anti-immigration statements. Personally, I find some of these statements pretty inane. For instance, he came under fire once for posting on his Facebook site that a speeding, dark-skinned guy on a bike had almost run him over earlier that day and that a well-integrated person wouldn't have done that. Similar somewhat attention-whoring anecdotes on how foreigners have done bad things have probably tarnished his reputation more than anything else. His standing would perhaps be a bit better had he just stuck to actual immigration policies like Winfried Kretschmann did. Then again, I wouldn't chracterize Kretschmann as a narcissist. In that sense, Palmer is indeed worse than Sarah Wagenknecht from the Left.

Politically, Boris Palmer is the mayor of the 90,000-inhabitant-strong town of Tübingen in Baden-Württemberg, first elected in 2006, re-elected for another eight-year term in 2014. The rest of the Green party usually tries to ignore him. Given his history of controversial remarks I find it unlikely he won't ever become anything else than mayor. At least in the party he's currently in.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #407 on: November 04, 2019, 12:23:14 PM »

Personally, I never really met a lot Left Party supporters/members who were big fans of Wagenknecht's immigration stances. But maybe this plays better in Saxony than it does in Berlin. I used to know a Left member who works at the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation who always resorted to a "but Boris Palmer is even worse!" defense when the topic came up in discussions with me.

Haha, the guy was not completely wrong... but he probably forgot that Boris Palmer is just an attention-seeking mayor (and loathed by the vast majority of his party), while Wagenknecht was - until recently - the public face of the LINKE. Someone like Palmer can be ignored if necessary, but if the informal party leader begins to parrot right-wing talking points, something is obviously wrong.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #408 on: November 04, 2019, 12:52:04 PM »

Could you please elaborate on Boris Palmer? I'd have thought someone with restrictive views on immigration wouldn't go far in the German Greens.

Over the past few years, Palmer has acquired himself quite a reputation for being the Green who regularly comes out with anti-immigration statements. Personally, I find some of these statements pretty inane. For instance, he came under fire once for posting on his Facebook site that a speeding, dark-skinned guy on a bike had almost run him over earlier that day and that a well-integrated person wouldn't have done that. Similar somewhat attention-whoring anecdotes on how foreigners have done bad things have probably tarnished his reputation more than anything else. His standing would perhaps be a bit better had he just stuck to actual immigration policies like Winfried Kretschmann did. Then again, I wouldn't chracterize Kretschmann as a narcissist. In that sense, Palmer is indeed worse than Sarah Wagenknecht from the Left.

Politically, Boris Palmer is the mayor of the 90,000-inhabitant-strong town of Tübingen in Baden-Württemberg, first elected in 2006, re-elected for another eight-year term in 2014. The rest of the Green party usually tries to ignore him. Given his history of controversial remarks I find it unlikely he won't ever become anything else than mayor. At least in the party he's currently in.

Maybe just this additional story to better explain Palmer's persona: In April, Palmer aggressively criticized an advertising campaign of the Deutsche Bahn (German railway) that showed some pictures of travelers with different skin colors, including two semi-celebrities of Turkish and Ghanaian descent. "What kind of society does this represent?" Palmer wrote in response, questioning the motivation of Deutsche Bahn and complaining about the political character of the campaign. An obviously racist comment, for which he was consequently called out. Many party members, legislators, and state party officials asked him to leave the GRÜNEN but he just responded like an AfD member would: "I don't understand the criticism! I didn't say anything, I didn't imply anything, I was just asking questions..."

The interesting thing about Palmer is that he's nothing special. Just the mayor of a medium-sized city in the Swabian province and the GRÜNEN have/had quite a number of mayors in much larger cities (e.g. Fritz Kuhn in Stuttgart; Jochen Partsch in Darmstadt). I agree with the label narcissist, it fits him perfectly, and could even imagine that he might do a "Oswald Metzger" in a few years. Metzger was a former MP of the GRÜNEN who left the party in 2007 only to join the CDU (party switching is extremely uncommon in Germany). In Palmer's case, the AfD would be certainly happy to have at least one elected official in Baden-Württemberg.
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palandio
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« Reply #409 on: November 04, 2019, 12:56:28 PM »

[...]
In my opinion, it would also certainly be a matter of debate whether Wagenknecht's stance was in fact a pretty dumb one from a purely strategic point of view. On one hand, it alienated supporters of more liberal immigration policies, while on the other hand it's unclear whether it motivated people to vote for the Left Party in larger numbers since it was obvious that Wagenknecht's views were only a minority position within the party and caused a lot of discord there. I mean, if we come back to Boris Palmer for a minute: I doubt that anyone votes Green because of him, but I met a number of people who refuse to vote Green because of Palmer. The thumb rule is: Whichever position a political party holds, you better make sure that it is a uncontroversial one within that party, because people usually don't vote for parties who don't even seem to agree on what they want.
Exactly.

It is very difficult to go against your activist base. As soon as it becomes clear that the majority of your party holds completely different views from you on a certain issue, most voters will not vote for you because of that issue anymore. On the contrary: If you don't shut up, you become a drag for your party , because 1. you alienate voters that hold the majority view, 2. the discussion serves to highlight the majority view to your own supporters, who will be alienated as well. The Left lost me when it became clear what views the majority of it holds on immigration, i.e. already before the 2017 federal elections. (And no, I didn't go to the AfD.)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #410 on: November 05, 2019, 03:49:10 PM »

Lmao, Frauke Petry's party Die Blauen ("the Blues") will dissolve at the end of the year. Petry was the leader of the AfD from 2015 to 2017. With the help of the party's right/nationalist wing, she ousted party founder Bernd Lucke as leader, who was less to the right and focused on criticism of the Euro. He subsequently left the AfD and founded a minor economically liberal/socially conservative party in opposition to the Euro. In 2017, Petry herself broke ties with the AfD because she wasn't rightwing enough anymore. The party she founded afterwards never gained any traction.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/blaue-partei-101.html
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #411 on: November 05, 2019, 03:56:40 PM »

Lmao, Frauke Petry's party Die Blauen ("the Blues") will dissolve at the end of the year. Petry was the leader of the AfD from 2015 to 2017. With the help of the party's right/nationalist wing, she ousted party founder Bernd Lucke as leader, who was less to the right and focused on criticism of the Euro. He subsequently left the AfD and founded a minor economically liberal/socially conservative party in opposition to the Euro. In 2017, Petry herself broke ties with the AfD because she wasn't rightwing enough anymore. The party she founded afterwards never gained any traction.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/blaue-partei-101.html

What a pity! What about Andre Poggenburg's Alliance of German Patriots party? Are they still around? If not, Bernd Lucke's Liberal and Conservative Reformers will be the only breakaway party left.
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« Reply #412 on: November 06, 2019, 07:52:58 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 08:16:01 AM by Ye Olde Europe »

In connection with the current Thuringian government formation debate (should the CDU talk with the Left and/or the AfD?), conservative CDU general-secretary Paul Ziemiak went full Antifa and has now published a guest editorial for the SPIEGEL magazine:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/paul-ziemiak-cdu-generalsekretaer-afd-ist-anti-deutschland-partei-gastbeitrag-a-1295061.html

Notable statements he makes in that article:

- Björn Höcke is "a Nazi".

- The AfD is "on its way to become a NPD 2.0", "moving to where the NPD once had its place", and "openly and visibly buildung bridges to right-wing extremism". "Blue turns into brown".

- Any kind of cooperation with the AfD "would be a betrayal of Christian-democratic values", and
anyone who's considering to cooperate with that party "should know that the AfD is questioning basic principles of our constitution".

- Furthermore, the AfD is "adcovating a Volksgemeinschaft based on ethnic homogeneity, that's how it started in 1933" in addition to being "at its core an anti-Germany party".


They're really packing out the big guns in their attempt to keep the genie in the bottle.
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Omega21
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« Reply #413 on: November 06, 2019, 11:36:24 AM »

In connection with the current Thuringian government formation debate (should the CDU talk with the Left and/or the AfD?), conservative CDU general-secretary Paul Ziemiak went full Antifa and has now published a guest editorial for the SPIEGEL magazine:

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/paul-ziemiak-cdu-generalsekretaer-afd-ist-anti-deutschland-partei-gastbeitrag-a-1295061.html

Notable statements he makes in that article:

- Björn Höcke is "a Nazi".

- The AfD is "on its way to become a NPD 2.0", "moving to where the NPD once had its place", and "openly and visibly buildung bridges to right-wing extremism". "Blue turns into brown".

- Any kind of cooperation with the AfD "would be a betrayal of Christian-democratic values", and
anyone who's considering to cooperate with that party "should know that the AfD is questioning basic principles of our constitution".

- Furthermore, the AfD is "adcovating a Volksgemeinschaft based on ethnic homogeneity, that's how it started in 1933" in addition to being "at its core an anti-Germany party".


They're really packing out the big guns in their attempt to keep the genie in the bottle.

It would have been much easier if Merkel and the party openly and clearly promised never to repeat their mistakes from 2015.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #414 on: November 06, 2019, 07:40:12 PM »

Huh. This is, I assume, obvious and therefore a stupid question, but isn’t it highly unusual for the Greens to hold onto these polling numbers?
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Estrella
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« Reply #415 on: November 06, 2019, 08:15:29 PM »

Huh. This is, I assume, obvious and therefore a stupid question, but isn’t it highly unusual for the Greens to hold onto these polling numbers?

Well, yes, but we aren't living in usual times. And it certainly isn't surprising - with the ineptness and factional struggles in SPD and now CDU as well, many voters are leaving for the Greens - not as weird a choice as it may seem, because today's Grünen are an amorphous socially progressive but ultimately centrist party à la Canadian Liberals.

(Going off on a tangent here, but talking about Canada, is it possible that, post-Merkel, German politics would realign along similar lines? Social liberals (Grünen) and conservatives (CDU/CSU) as the two big parties that would compete to provide the Chancellor, leftists (SPD, Linke) eternally languishing as third parties, and an untouchable AfD Bloc DDRois?)
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #416 on: November 06, 2019, 10:40:03 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 10:44:16 PM by Pick Up the Phone »

(Going off on a tangent here, but talking about Canada, is it possible that, post-Merkel, German politics would realign along similar lines? Social liberals (Grünen) and conservatives (CDU/CSU) as the two big parties that would compete to provide the Chancellor, leftists (SPD, Linke) eternally languishing as third parties, and an untouchable AfD Bloc DDRois?)

It is certainly possible. In some way, the GRÜNEN have already replaced the SPD as the most influential force on the left; one should not be deceived by the disappointing results they got in the last few state elections. All of these elections were in Eastern Germany and Eastern Germany doesn't really matter at the federal level. And there are a number of points that would support your argument: The SPD lacks both a long-term strategy and a convincing leadership. It's an aging party which was hit hard by the rise of the AfD - many socially conservative lower/middle class voters who don't like the fact that Germany has become an Einwanderungsland (country of immigration) did abandon it. By contrast, the GRÜNEN have issue ownership in salient policy areas (most notably climate change), did successfully re-brand themselves as 'anti-AfD', and are increasingly able to attract both centrist and leftist voters. They get support from basically everywhere: from the SPD and the liberal wing of the CDU, but also from disillusioned voters of the LINKE. Besides, they have a very strong and charismatic duo at the top. The Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a major polling firm in Germany, regularly releases the so-called Politikbarometer which lists the 10 most important politicians and measures their popularity. The October list looks like this (values between +5 and -5):

1. Winfried Kretschmann (GRÜNE): +1,9
2. Angela Merkel (CDU): +1,6
3. Robert Habeck (GRÜNE): +1,2
4. Olaf Scholz (SPD): +1,1
5. Heiko Maas (SPD): +0,9
6. Christian Lindner (FDP): +0,1
7. Markus Söder (CSU): +0,1
8. Ursula von der Leyen (CDU): -0,1
9. Horst Seehofer (CSU): -0,2
10. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU): -0,6

Meanwhile, the most recent polls have the GRÜNEN between 18.0% and 23.5% while the SPD polls between 13.0% and 16.0%. The difference is smaller than it was during the summer, but it's still quite substantial. If there are no major shifts and these numbers remain more or less stable, I fully expect the GRÜNEN to name a candidate for the chancellory in 2020/2021 (most likely Habeck). If this happens, the reaction of the SPD will be interesting. There are many realistic scenarios in which the realignment you've described could happen in the end.

The next state election in Hamburg (February 2020) will be very interesting in the respect. Hamburg is perhaps the most SPD-leaning state of all and gave even Olaf Scholz 45.6% four years ago (GRÜNE: 12,3%). The most recent poll had both parties tied at 28%. If the GRÜNEN win in Hamburg and get their second minister-president, it would obviously be a massive symbolic victory over the SPD and probably accelerate things quite a bit.  
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« Reply #417 on: November 07, 2019, 10:01:14 AM »

Question is if the Greens have enough to take the chancellorship would the SDP join government yet again as a junior partner? I imagine the party desperately wants to escape the confines of its role as subordinate and recover for a while, but what if their is a surprise green double red majority?

Of course I imagine it would be a Jamaica or black green coalition anyway, but still.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #418 on: November 07, 2019, 11:25:17 AM »

Question is if the Greens have enough to take the chancellorship would the SDP join government yet again as a junior partner? I imagine the party desperately wants to escape the confines of its role as subordinate and recover for a while, but what if their is a surprise green double red majority?

Of course I imagine it would be a Jamaica or black green coalition anyway, but still.

It's true that there are strong forces within the SPD that would like to see the party in the opposition role (not always for entirely unselfish reasons I suppose). But others don't and I think that they're not completely wrong. While leaving the government can help in some cases, it can also render a party irrelevant and politically impotent. Personally, I'm not convinced that the SPD, as unpopular as it is right now, would suddenly recover just because it isn't part of the ruling coalition anymore. Most AfD voters simply wouldn't care; they have no real incentive to reconsider their choice in such a scenario and overwhelmingly believe that all Altparteien (established parties) are the same either way. And not being in government means less media exposure and less opportunities to influence the political agenda. The SPD's former chairman, Franz Müntefering, was certainly aware of this when he once proclaimed that Opposition ist Mist (being in the opposition is bullocks).

It's really hard to predict what the SPD would do in such a scenario (even more so as it's generally hard to predict what the SPD would do). But there would be a strong element of irony if there were a majority for Red-Red-Green under a GRÜNEN chancellor and the Social Democrats would actually enter such a coalition. Irony because there was already a parliamentary majority for Red-Red-Green between 2013 and 2017 (SPD: 193 seats + LINKE: 64 seats + GRÜNE: 63 seats = 320 seats vs. CDU: 311 seats), but the SPD ultimately decided that a GroKo would be a better option than forcing Chancellor Steinbrück to work with the LINKE. Yet I still assume that the GRÜNEN would be more likely to prevent Red-Red-Green from actually happening, since this alliance would scare off many centrist and moderate voters they recently gained from the CDU. They might prefer either Green-Black (Baden-Württemberg style), Jamaica, or a so-called traffic light coalition (GRÜNE + SPD + FDP) instead.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #419 on: November 07, 2019, 02:33:30 PM »

New ARD/Infratest Dimap poll:

Union: 26% (-2)
Greens: 22% (-2)
SPD: 14% (+1)
AfD: 14% (-)
Left: 9% (-)
FDP: 8% (-)
Others: 7%


Most stunning number: AKK at 18% (!) approval rating! She's dropping like a rock from already low numbers, as she's doing a bad job both as Defense minister and CDU leader.




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urutzizu
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« Reply #420 on: November 07, 2019, 02:44:53 PM »

Who tf are of 12% of West Germans and 8% of East Germans who say that "free speech" was better under the East German Regime?

Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

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President Johnson
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« Reply #421 on: November 07, 2019, 03:07:32 PM »


Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

The big question is what Friedrich Merz will do? Will he challenge her at the next convention or just wait until she's run of town. I think the latter is safer for him, because I doubt he would win a majority of delegates yet. He would win a vote among all party members, though.

CDU made a mistake not to elect him in the first place.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #422 on: November 07, 2019, 04:40:15 PM »


Anyway AKK must be finished at this point. No way in their right mind would the CDU nominate her.

The big question is what Friedrich Merz will do? Will he challenge her at the next convention or just wait until she's run of town. I think the latter is safer for him, because I doubt he would win a majority of delegates yet. He would win a vote among all party members, though.

CDU made a mistake not to elect him in the first place.

I'm not sure if AKK is really that bad as Minister of Defense. But the impression she gives is one of aimlessness, that's certainly true. So it probably falls into the 'self-fulfilling prophecy' category.

While I don't like Merz, I think he is too smart to openly challenge AKK not even one year after her election. He tested the waters with his recent statements (which were only superficially directed at the government - he was clearly aiming at the party leadership) and probably realized that such a move would most likely weaken his position and create a strong backlash. Many CDU members and MPs are sick and tired of his continuous efforts to undermine AKK's position; and while she is unpopular and mishandled a few issues, there was nothing scandalous or stupid enough to justify voting her out.

I also still think that the CDU was right in selecting AKK. It was clear that all candidates were several tiers below Merkel but AKK had (and still has) the most potential to pacify the different party factions and reach out to "I-usually-don't-vote-CDU-but-I-like-Merkel" voters. Merz, by contrast, would have energized the WerteUnion and some of the more conservative state parties, yet there are many voters who detest him. His work for Blackrock is shady at best (he's still working for them as far as I know!) and having party chairman Merz and Chancellor Merkel at the same time would have led to a never-ending series of conflicts with the potential to severely damage the CDU.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #423 on: November 07, 2019, 04:46:26 PM »

Who tf are of 12% of West Germans and 8% of East Germans who say that "free speech" was better under the East German Regime?

I'm even more amazed that there are people who think that "travel possibilities" in the GDR were better. Hard to believe.
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Cassius
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« Reply #424 on: November 07, 2019, 05:55:44 PM »

Who tf are of 12% of West Germans and 8% of East Germans who say that "free speech" was better under the East German Regime?

I'm even more amazed that there are people who think that "travel possibilities" in the GDR were better. Hard to believe.

Maybe they oversampled HVA veterans...
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