🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Pick Up the Phone]

Of course, you're right that main opposition parties recover from time to time but this is not a given. Think about the Republicans in France and Labour in the UK. Or think about the (awful) CDU-FDP coalition that governed Germany from 2009 to 2013. Did the SPD benefit from it? Not really. They gained 2.7% compared to the CDU's 7.7%.

As a general rule being the main opposition party is a strong position, unless the party system is hegemonic or quasi-hegemonic like the Japanese, and usually a lot better than being the junior partner in a coalition.

This might be a "general rule" but there are plenty of counterexamples, especially in the German context. Think about the CDU-Greens coalition in Hesse, for instance. The Greens almost doubled their result in 2018 (from 8.7% to 19.8%), whereas the SPD as main opposition party completely collpased (from 30.7% to 19.8%). They also won big in Hamburg despite being the junior coalition partner. Same in Bremen or Schleswsig-Holstein.

And the list of opposition parties that dreamed of 'quick recovery' but then faded into irrelevance is considerable. I don't see the SPD recovering in the foreseeable future - except if they lead the government. And if they Greens are smart, they'll do their best to prevent this.

I don't want to derail the thread, but the UK is a bad example since it clearly hurt the LibDems to go into coalition with the Tories and it was vital for Labour to retain their status as the main opposition party post-Brexit (being able to squeeze the LibDem and Green vote), something that briefly seemed under threat. In a FPTP system being the main opposition party is even more valuable than in a more proportional system (e.g. if the NDP ever became the main opposition party in Canada the Liberals might conceivably implode, and if the rump-Liberals then joined a Tory government as a junior partner they'd likely sign their own death warrant).

This is certainly correct. I just remember many Labour optimists who talked about "recovering in opposition" in 2010 and that this would allow them to come back in no time. Eleven years and three election defeats later, they're not so optimistic anymore. There's no automatism of any kind.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The Greens today announced thar their "chancellor candidate" will be announced on April 19, either Robert Habeck or Annalena Baerbock.

While public speculation is that it's 50-50, I'm relatively sure Baerbock will get it because women seem to have sort of a "privilege" here.

As I have already written in the other thread: No need to invoke 'female privilege' when Baerbock is simply the better candidate. She has not only better political instincts and massive intra-party support, but also resembles Merkel in her calm and unpretentious appearance. Voters will like her.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The Greens today announced thar their "chancellor candidate" will be announced on April 19, either Robert Habeck or Annalena Baerbock.

While public speculation is that it's 50-50, I'm relatively sure Baerbock will get it because women seem to have sort of a "privilege" here.

As I have already written in the other thread: No need to invoke 'female privilege' when Baerbock is simply the better candidate. She has not only better political instincts and massive intra-party support, but also resembles Merkel in her calm and unpretentious appearance. Voters will like her.

Idk about that?

Will like her. At this point, many voters have not even heard of her. With Merkel, it was the same.

These preference polls are completely meaningless (aside from a few high-info voters, it’s basically about name recognition). Wait until she is nominated and regularly appears on the campaign trail.

[Pick Up the Phone]

What would you say are the chances of a Grune-SPD-Die Linke coalition right now? Because it seems very possible if CDU doesn't get out of its slump and they can work together that Germany would have its first left wing government in a while.

Very low. There is no reason why the Greens should form a coalition with the (radical) LINKE when they attempt to establish themselves as a pragmatic center-left party. Greens-SPD-FDP is a possibility though. Would also be a more realistic majority.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Trafficlight coalition under Chancellor Scholz would be my preferred model, but I'm kinda skeptical such a coalition can be formed no matter whether Greens or SPD are the "senior partner". Mainly because there are a number of programmatic splits between Free Democrats and SPD/Greens. For example, the FDP de facto ruled out any tax hikes while SPD/Greens both support tax increases for upper incomes. Success of such talks would probably succeed if Green and SPD moderates have the upper hand within their respective parties. Guys like me could reach an agreement with Christian Lindner, but it gets more complicated with the left-wingers. We'll have to see.

I would not object to a traffic light coalition either. But I think the most important issue is indeed who would be the senior partner in such a constellation. Accepting Chancellor Baerbock means that the SPD is officially conceding the leadership of the center-left camp to the Grünen. And that cannot really be in the strategic interest of German Social Democracy.

Not sure if issues would really matter that much (they rarely do). The FDP leadership is way too much interested in governing, and a traffic light coalition is their only viable option for the foreseeable future. CDU/CSU-FDP won't have a majority anytime soon, and Jamaica works perfectly well without the FDP. They need this coalition if they don't want to remain in perpetual opposition.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Do we have a confirmation that no other human being than Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Olaf Scholz will suceed Angela Merkel?

No, there cannot be any such confirmation as Kanzlerkandidat*in is no official position. MPs have no legal obligation to (a) nominate their party's candidate, (b) vote for their party's candidate, (c) nominate a party politician at all, (d) vote at all.

Any adult German is eligible, and in theory, a Grüne-CDU coalition could make Robert Habeck or Friedrich Merz Chancellor and it would be perfectly legal. They could even make the janitor Chancellor.

Of course, the chance that one of Laschet, Baerbock, or Scholz gets the job is 99%+.

Yes, you told, there is no legal obligation. But it is very hard that the parties break the promise.

Definitely. But many things can happen in theory. Be it a major scandal, be it difficult coalition negotiations in which one party won't agree to support the other party's nominee etc.

There was the potential for such a situation in 2005 when Gerhard Schröder insisted to stay in power but the CDU (whose candidate Angela Merkel had just received an extremely disappointing result) wanted Schröder out. Some people actually proposed the following compromise: Give the Chancellorship to the SPD but only under the condition that they propose a different candidate than Schröder. However, Schröder was ditched by his own party before this option could be considered.

[Pick Up the Phone]

He's the definition of a softie who will always "find compromises". I mean, that's even how he markets himself, but that's not what the people want right now.

Sorry to take away your illusions, but 'finding compromises' is the essence of politics. Especially in a country like Germany where everything is about consensus and coalition-building. It's true that many people love authoritarian gestures and have an unhealthy preference for strongman politics. But this is not how our political system works.

Besides, it's mainly a performative act to fool the masses. I consider it naive to assume that Söder's and Laschet's governing(!) approach would be that different. If you really believe that Söder would tell Erdogan to "**** himself" whereas Laschet would show himself subservient, you underestimate the practical constraints that top politicians find themselves confronted with.

To be honest, I am pretty happy that 'we' don't throw a tantrum just because Erdogan seated Ursula von der Leyen on the couch. It is a sign of political and diplomatic maturity which conservatives and right-wingers often lack these days. 

[Pick Up the Phone]

If by chance the Greens edged out the CDU and were the largest party would the CDU be willing to be a junior partner in a Green led coalition with a Green chancellor?

Would they not learn the less of what happen to the SPD since 2005 to avoid accepting that ?

There is no automatism that the junior partner in a coalition loses like the SPD did. Grüne-SPD-FDP is the more probable outcome in such a scenario but I have no doubt that the CDU would also agree to Grüne-CDU if they had to. They simply love power too much.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Forsa 20-26 April

Grüne 28%, CDU/CSU 22%, SPD 13%, FDP 12%, AfD 11%, Linke 7%, Sonstige 7%

Most of the Green growth was the result of the decline of the SPD and Linke, and most of the CDU/CSU decline benefits FDP and AfD, but the Greens are still taking votes from the CDU. Grüne+SPD+Linke=48%, one of the best recent sum

I don't know whether I should laugh or cry over this poll.

If you like center-left politics, you should consider good that AfD is doing not better than it did in 2017 and that there is a great probability of a green-red-yellow coalition under the leadershio of Annalena Baerbock

Indeed. But the performance of the AfD is pretty meaningless to be honest. They are completely irrelevant in terms of coalition-building and the more percentage points they take from the CDU, the better (from a center-left perspective).  
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Very nice polls, I must say. Germany is finally turning green.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Say something nice about this.

Amusing that the losses of CDU+SPD+LINKE (-75; -54; -16) and the gains of GRÜNE (+145) are exactly the same. Everybody but FDP voters switches to the Greens while the AfD stagnates. Beautiful.  

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

[Pick Up the Phone]

So what would a traffic light coalition look like

Unclear, as there has never been a traffic light coalition in federal politics before - but let me try:

in terms of policy on immigration,

If anything, more generous than the current coalition's policy. A government without CSU politicians who kill all legislative efforts because they need to show how 'tough on immigration' they are would be quite an improvement on this front. All three parties have repeatedly committed themselves to the basic tenets of multiculturalism and I assume that they would find common ground here rather easily. The FDP may complain a little about asylum issues - but like most of what the FDP does, it's not meant to be taken too seriously. They would be extremely unlikely to crash the coalition because of this.

the EU,

All are firmly pro-EU. But so is the CDU. I wouldn't expect any major policy changes.

taxes etc,

Depends on who gets the relevant ministries. This is a policy domain where I would expect some disharmony between FDP and Grüne/SPD but they should be able to find a compromise that doesn't hurt anyone. Less bureaucracy/lower corporate taxes in exchange for renewable energy subsidies etc.

and would they try for any political structural change like reform of the 5% threshold, more direct democracy etc.  I wonder if some in the FDP especially would like to push a change in the 5% rule as so many of their state parties come just above or below that number, and lowering it on the federal level might lead to   change on the lower level?

No doubt that the FDP would love that. But why should the other two parties agree to such a proposal? No, I don't see any real potential for structural change (at least not with regard to the two issues you mentioned). Most Germans are not too fond of such change and most smart politicians know that.  

[Pick Up the Phone]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Well, not necessarily (see 'never held any government office before' and 'no dubious corporate past') but there are certainly some parallels and I could imagine that Baerbock would easily get along with Macron. But you have to consider that Macron has always been a solo performer, whereas Baerbock would have to listen to the majority opinion of her party - even as Chancellor.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?

[Pick Up the Phone]

The main tenor of the speech was respect in society and making the 2020s a decade of modernization. Key policy proposals are a minimum wage increase to 12€/hour, more investments in housing and infrastructure and carbon neutrality by 2045. Furthermore, he wants to lower taxes for middle and lower incomes while increasing taxes on the wealthy.

I think it is a pretty boring proposal. Carbon neutrality is consensus among all parties not called AfD, while more public investments or lower taxes are center-left standard demands and rather forgettable. The latter are also not that attractive to most voters - for some reason, progressive politicians always think that 'tax the rich' is popular when it is evidently not. Most people don't care about taxes that don't affect them directly. And those who do usually voter for the LINKE.

Since support for parties is fluid, I think this election may be a make or break moment for the party. Scholz now needs to specify his policy proposals, sell them to the public

First and foremost, Scholz needs to raise his profile and give people an idea why he should be Chancellor. The importance of 'policy proposals' is vastly overrated, especially if they are neither original nor revolutionary.

and - as more people start paying attention - capitalize on his governing experience.

Or the other way round: explain why people should not expect 'more of the same' from him.

He's easily the most qualified chancellor candidate, especially compared to Baerbock.

I think you confuse experience with competence. Scholz is certainly the more experienced candidate but that doesn't mean that he's more qualified, more competent, or more capable of leading (and representing!) Germany.  

If he can paint her as inexperienced and tie Laschet to the status-quo, there's a chance he'll end up winning.

Do you think this is a viable strategy? I mean... Scholz is vice-chancellor and as such co-responsible for the status quo. I don't see how he could attack Laschet/the CDU without delegitimizing himself.

Edit: I just read Scholz' convention speech. Pages over page about mobility concepts but only one half-sentence (i.e., three words) about racism - arguably Germany's most urgent problem next to climate change. One half-sentence (i.e., three words) about sexism. And not a single word about the LGBTQ+ community. Really don't think that this is sufficient in 2021.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Steinmeier is a good guy and an able president. No doubt about that.

But if there really is a Black-Green/Green-Black government after the elections, the coalition partners could be tempted to elect one of their own instead. There are quite a few people who seem interested... Kramp-Karrenbauer, Göring-Eckardt, Özdemir...

[Pick Up the Phone]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

Its certainly striking how little they seems to be benefiting from the SPD's woes.

No reason why they should when there is a Green candidate with a realistic shot at the Chancellorship.

Most SPD voters (and members) don't have a particularly strong affinity with the Linke. Especially not in Western Germany. Those who did already left the party in 2005.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Must be a chance that SW gets expelled soon - does hubby share her "red-brown" views these days?

Yes, he's even worse than her and has gone completely nuts. He does nothing but rant on his Facebook page, with some positions being remarkably close to AfD's. One of his most recent rants was against evil pharma that wants to vaccinate minors in spite of "unknown long term side effects" (which are mechanistically impossible, but why would he care). His Landtag voting record is not that far from AfD's either. Lutze and his confidantes already urged him to leave the Left.

Lafontaine and Wagenknecht really need to leave the party. Or get expelled. Not only because they are histrionic drama queens but also because they shamelessly pander to the uglier communitarian elements within the AfD.

I personally know several young voters (university students mostly) who have stopped supporting the LINKE because of Wagenknecht's xenophobic bullsh*t. These young voters believe in many progressive projects, ranging from environmental protection to global justice.

However, they don't believe that some comparatively privileged (white, male, German) workers somewhere in the Eastern states have a God-given right to consume cheap meat, drive dirty cars, and make racist comments about "the MOOSLEMS" just because they cannot get their own lives in order.

And I have to agree with them.

Comparatively privileged compared to whom? Workers in the Global South? Sure. To your university student friends? Doubtful.

To non-Germans, of course. What did you think?

But the point is not that they are privileged. The point is that being privileged (i.e. living in one of the wealthiest nations in Europe) and adhering to a toxic mix of nostalgia, racism, anti-intellectualism, and self-victimization is a problem. Just like the idea that one has an innate right to drive dirty cars is. Or the (even more stupid) idea that one doesn't need to care about discrimination, gender equality, and climate change because muh economic anxiety.

And catering to these people is a problem as well - at least for the LINKE. Zahlen lügen nicht as one would say in German. If the party wants to have a future, it has to change its strategy, reconsider its political preference structure, and get rid of those who sow discord and harm its electoral chances.

Starting with Wagenknecht and her red-brown ilk.

[Pick Up the Phone]

And another poll is out - The Green honeymoon is over (for now):

Most importantly, this poll shows no majority for the 'traffic light' coalition (46-47) anymore, which leaves us with Black-Green as the default government. And this obviously means: Chancellor Laschet.

On the macro level, the Greens are still in a very comfortable position. Their participation in the next government is all but guaranteed (there are simply no other realistic options) and they are still polling 6-8 percentage points ahead of the SPD - indicating that they have consolidated their position as the new dominant center-left party.  

On the micro level, the decrease in support is annoying but entirely deserved. Not because there was any real scandal but because Baerbock made a series of tactical mistakes and failed to control the media narrative. Indeed, honeymoon season is over for now. But there is still plenty of time to recover, especially with the pandemic being on the wane and climate change getting more attention again.

Edit: One major advantage of the Greens was their unity and lack of intra-party infighting. It will be interesting to see what happens if Baerbock's approval numbers don't recover in time - will there be a 'Habeck would have been/is the better choice' argument?

[Pick Up the Phone]

If it continues by that rate, her downfall is even faster than Martin Schulz. In both cases, the media is also to blame for making their issues such a huge deal while the Union largely gets a free pass.

Agreed, real question is can SPD benefit from decline or will most go to CDU/CSU.

Obviously CDU/CSU. And FDP to some degree. We can already see it in the polls.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Meanwhile in North Rhine-Westphalia: Members of the LINKE have officially put forward a motion to expel Sahra Wagenknecht from the party. Will now be discussed by the responsible party committees.

https://www.tagesschau.de/regional/nordrheinwestfalen/wagenknecht-antrag-parteiausschluss-101.html

And according to the 'taz', the LINKE is even considering expelling both Wagenknecht and Lafontaine:

https://taz.de/Boykottaufruf-gegen-die-Linkspartei/!5773358/

It's getting clearer by the day that their brownish Querfront positions have no majority within the party. Still, that's what you call bad timing.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Is Tino Chrupalla perceived as the AfD leader?  I'm just interested that he is polled and Meuthen isn't.

Chrupalla has been elected lead candidate for the 2021 federal elections (together with Alice Weidel).

Not that Chrupalla is a particularly interesting figure; he's the archetypical compromise candidate. So, few people would actually consider him the AfD leader. But neither Meuthen (still in Brussels) nor Wundrak (too 'liberal') or any other prominent contender had a majority to become lead candidate.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Maybe, the attack in Wurzburg will not increase too much the popularity of the AfD, because those who think "these immigrants are attacking us using knife, we need the AfD" were already voting for the AfD.
What do the germans think?

Agree. Besides that, the attack will be forgotten one week from now. One of many events that create headlines for one day or two but are completely meaningless in the long run.