TN-Targoz Strategic Marketing: Tie
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Author Topic: TN-Targoz Strategic Marketing: Tie  (Read 2798 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 03, 2018, 01:31:50 AM »

Targoz Strategic Marketing, a Nashville-based firm:

48% Bredesen (D)
48% Blackburn (R)

Their early October poll had Blackburn up by 2 points.

The Targoz poll was conducted with 480 likely voters 228 of whom said they already voted between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31.

https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/11/02/marsha-blackburn-phil-bredesen-race-dead-heat-new-etsu-poll-east-tennessee-state-university/1862030002

https://www.targoz.com
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Sestak
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 01:36:12 AM »

Who?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 01:39:45 AM »

Tuesday, a delicate election day. Are you ready for it ?

On Wednesday, there will be bad blood but one of them will go out with style. But right now, it seems Blackburn can't shake off the Phil. She doesn't want to live in Congress forever, right ?

Hopefully, Tennesseans can say on Wednesday: "Look what you made us do !"
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 01:42:44 AM »

NUT

I'm not saying Bredesen has the edge, but this race isn't over.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 01:42:49 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2018, 02:00:31 AM by new_patomic »

A sample of 480 for a state-wide poll is pretty meager. Don't Siena and everyone else typically go with closer to 800?

In any case, throw it in the average, the race still doesn't seem tied, even if I want to believe, blah blah blah
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 01:45:36 AM »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Targoz Strategic Marketing on 2018-10-31

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 01:54:26 AM »

There were 8 polls done in the past week to Oct. 31, showing an average lead of 4.75% for Blackburn.

The sample sizes varied between 400 and 750 in each poll, which means the MoE for these polls is exactly the margin that Blackburn is ahead on average: 4-5%.
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adrac
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 02:20:50 AM »

I still think Bredesen's in pretty bad shape, but it's nice to see him make it close to 50% in a poll.
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Hammy
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 02:34:01 AM »

What's with the low-quality TN polls all of a sudden.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2018, 02:51:21 AM »

I'll believe Bredesen winning when I see it.
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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 02:52:23 AM »

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The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 02:53:25 AM »

What's with the low-quality TN polls all of a sudden.

It is a manifestation of the Taylor Swift effect.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 02:53:32 AM »

Who needs high quality polls from CNN, FOX, or Marist? I'll believe a completely unknown firm called "Targoz Strategic Marketing" instead because it fits my narrative. Smiley
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 05:39:06 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 05:44:30 AM »

I dont know why people are shocked at this. I would be equally unsurprised if Blackburn won or Bredesen won, because both have factors in their favor.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 06:08:31 AM »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2018, 06:11:24 AM »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

Not to mention, there's still been on onslaught of spending here from the GOP and Trump is going here. Yes, he is popular in TN, but you also don't see him going to ND. They wouldn't send him if they thought Blackburn had it wrapped up like some of the 7-10% polls suggest.
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Politician
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2018, 06:33:33 AM »

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?
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mgop
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2018, 07:10:05 AM »

this will be R+10, this junk pools are funny and give you fake hope. only disappointment will be bigger for dems.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2018, 08:56:25 AM »

The last polls matter most. Polls showing a tie between Bredeson and Blackburn look like outliers, but so did some late polls suggesting that Trump was in a virtual tie in such states as Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin... and Trump leads in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.

We just experienced two of the worst incidents of domestic terrorism in America, one of them by a fanatical Trump supporter and one by a neo-Nazi. The President handled those badly, and within two weeks of the midterm election.  I'm not saying that 2016 and 2018 are mirror images because they are very different.

The election for Senator from Tennessee looks like a nailbiter, the most recent such election in Tennessee having been held in 2006. This looks even closer.   
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History505
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2018, 09:45:09 AM »

This race will be one to watch on Tuesday night for sure.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2018, 01:22:24 PM »

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

LMAO

Election night is gonna be fun here.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2018, 01:25:08 PM »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

You were literally just arguing Manchin was guaranteed to win because he's at 87% on 538. Yet Blackburn being at 82% is a "toss up?" Okay.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2018, 01:40:19 PM »

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Pericles
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2018, 02:51:12 PM »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

You were literally just arguing Manchin was guaranteed to win because he's at 87% on 538. Yet Blackburn being at 82% is a "toss up?" Okay.

Huh I was citing an objective look at the race, while you were acting like a 5 point lead for Manchin made it a Lean R race.
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