|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 13, 2020, 05:50:35 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-Targoz Strategic Marketing: Tie
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: TN-Targoz Strategic Marketing: Tie  (Read 1798 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,000
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 03, 2018, 01:31:50 am »

Targoz Strategic Marketing, a Nashville-based firm:

48% Bredesen (D)
48% Blackburn (R)

Their early October poll had Blackburn up by 2 points.

The Targoz poll was conducted with 480 likely voters 228 of whom said they already voted between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31.

https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/11/02/marsha-blackburn-phil-bredesen-race-dead-heat-new-etsu-poll-east-tennessee-state-university/1862030002

https://www.targoz.com
Logged
Ses
jk2020
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,143



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2018, 01:36:12 am »

Who?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,000
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2018, 01:39:45 am »

Tuesday, a delicate election day. Are you ready for it ?

On Wednesday, there will be bad blood but one of them will go out with style. But right now, it seems Blackburn can't shake off the Phil. She doesn't want to live in Congress forever, right ?

Hopefully, Tennesseans can say on Wednesday: "Look what you made us do !"
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,259
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2018, 01:42:44 am »

NUT

I'm not saying Bredesen has the edge, but this race isn't over.
Logged
new_patomic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 503


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2018, 01:42:49 am »
« Edited: November 03, 2018, 02:00:31 am by new_patomic »

A sample of 480 for a state-wide poll is pretty meager. Don't Siena and everyone else typically go with closer to 800?

In any case, throw it in the average, the race still doesn't seem tied, even if I want to believe, blah blah blah
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,000
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2018, 01:45:36 am »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Targoz Strategic Marketing on 2018-10-31

Summary: D: 48%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,000
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2018, 01:54:26 am »

There were 8 polls done in the past week to Oct. 31, showing an average lead of 4.75% for Blackburn.

The sample sizes varied between 400 and 750 in each poll, which means the MoE for these polls is exactly the margin that Blackburn is ahead on average: 4-5%.
Logged
adrac
adracman42
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 724


Political Matrix
E: -9.99, S: -9.99

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2018, 02:20:50 am »

I still think Bredesen's in pretty bad shape, but it's nice to see him make it close to 50% in a poll.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,840
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2018, 02:34:01 am »

What's with the low-quality TN polls all of a sudden.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,255
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2018, 02:51:21 am »

I'll believe Bredesen winning when I see it.
Logged
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,701


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2018, 02:52:23 am »

Logged
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,701


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2018, 02:53:25 am »

What's with the low-quality TN polls all of a sudden.

It is a manifestation of the Taylor Swift effect.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2018, 02:53:32 am »

Who needs high quality polls from CNN, FOX, or Marist? I'll believe a completely unknown firm called "Targoz Strategic Marketing" instead because it fits my narrative. Smiley
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,411
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2018, 05:39:06 am »

Logged
wbrocks67
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2018, 05:44:30 am »

I dont know why people are shocked at this. I would be equally unsurprised if Blackburn won or Bredesen won, because both have factors in their favor.
Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,865



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2018, 06:08:31 am »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.
Logged
wbrocks67
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,310
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2018, 06:11:24 am »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

Not to mention, there's still been on onslaught of spending here from the GOP and Trump is going here. Yes, he is popular in TN, but you also don't see him going to ND. They wouldn't send him if they thought Blackburn had it wrapped up like some of the 7-10% polls suggest.
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,057
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2018, 06:33:33 am »

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?
Logged
mgop
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 757
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2018, 07:10:05 am »

this will be R+10, this junk pools are funny and give you fake hope. only disappointment will be bigger for dems.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,643
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2018, 08:56:25 am »

The last polls matter most. Polls showing a tie between Bredeson and Blackburn look like outliers, but so did some late polls suggesting that Trump was in a virtual tie in such states as Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin... and Trump leads in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.

We just experienced two of the worst incidents of domestic terrorism in America, one of them by a fanatical Trump supporter and one by a neo-Nazi. The President handled those badly, and within two weeks of the midterm election.  I'm not saying that 2016 and 2018 are mirror images because they are very different.

The election for Senator from Tennessee looks like a nailbiter, the most recent such election in Tennessee having been held in 2006. This looks even closer.   
Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2018, 09:45:09 am »

This race will be one to watch on Tuesday night for sure.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2018, 01:22:24 pm »

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

LMAO

Election night is gonna be fun here.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,957
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2018, 01:25:08 pm »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

You were literally just arguing Manchin was guaranteed to win because he's at 87% on 538. Yet Blackburn being at 82% is a "toss up?" Okay.
Logged
Don Vito Corleone
bruhgmger2
Atlas Politician
Sr. Member
*****
Posts: 2,010
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2018, 01:40:19 pm »

Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,865



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2018, 02:51:12 pm »

Multiple polls corroborate this race still being at Tossup. The junk poll defense can only go so far. Blackburn remains favored but Bredesen may have a shot after all.

You were literally just arguing Manchin was guaranteed to win because he's at 87% on 538. Yet Blackburn being at 82% is a "toss up?" Okay.

Huh I was citing an objective look at the race, while you were acting like a 5 point lead for Manchin made it a Lean R race.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.18 seconds with 14 queries.