How will Trump fare with Hispanics in 2020?

[christian peralta]

In 2016, Trump took 28% of the hispanic vote, some considered the results pretty bizarre because of Trump remarks about that group. How do you think he will fare with that group, and which percentage he will receive?

[Lourdes]

He'll only do worse. I can't see any way he can improve with Hispanics.

[Greedo punched first]

Worse than 2016.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Around the same. Even if he does worse he’s already proven roughly 25%+ of Hispanics are right wingers who will never vote for a Democrat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Around the same probably


His rhetoric on immigration was far more worse on the campaign trail in 2016 than it has been in his presidency

[Dr. MB]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

[Person Man]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

A lot of Hispanics are really white people who spoke Spanish or Portuguese before they spoke English. Think Spainards and Cubans or Italians or Germans by way of Coulmbia or Brazill.

[pbrower2a]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

A lot of Hispanics are really white people who spoke Spanish or Portuguese before they spoke English. Think Spaniards and Cubans or Italians or Germans by way of Colombia or Brazil.

Note that if you check the record of "Miss Venezuela", you will often find a German-sounding surname on someone who looks as if she could be as easily from Nebraska by appearance. There is a large German settlement in Venezuela, and torta de la Selva Negra is what Americans recognize as Black Forest Cake. That's part of my cultural heritage, so I probably have distant relatives in Venezuela, some of whose ancestors came  from Baden-Wuerttemberg as did some of mine. 

According to the Census, Brazilians are not considered Hispanics.  I noticed that as an enumerator when I was checking up on some Brazilian family.

American Hispanics are highly likely to know an immigrant as either a spouse, parent, sibling, or grandparent.  The rhetoric about illegal immigrants ends up insulting the wrong people. Nobody denies that MS-13 is horrible, but for many Hispanics that rhetoric might suggest an in-law or potential mate. Illegal immigrants are not particularly prone to crime not related to status. Even with DUI and domestic abuse, they are on par with Americans as a whole. DUI and domestic violence can get one deported.

If I am dating do you think the first question that I ask is about status of citizenship? I think musical tastes are far more important for compatibility.

Puerto Ricans are not going to have a problem on citizenship, but the gross mismanagement of the relief efforts will not help the President among them. Many Puerto Ricans are in Florida and Georgia, states in contention in any close Presidential election, and now in Texas, now on the fringe of contention.

The Hispanic electorate is growing fast. It's hard to say whether the Anglo population is assimilating Mexican-Americans or whether Mexican-Americans are assimilating Anglos in such states as Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the Kavanaugh appointment, it solidified the Latinos and blacks behind Democrats, due to his stances on quotas and immigration.

[gottsu]

With the Kavanaugh appointment, it solidified the Latinos and blacks behind Democrats, due to his stances on quotas and immigration.

and to "Technocracy Timmy" point, I was surprised by the amount of "Trump Hispanic" voters when I first moved to Minnesota,

That's curious. Could you say a little more about that?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

Latinx =/= Mexican, even though they're practically synonymous in Technocracy Timmy's neck of the woods.

[gottsu]

With the Kavanaugh appointment, it solidified the Latinos and blacks behind Democrats, due to his stances on quotas and immigration.

and to "Technocracy Timmy" point, I was surprised by the amount of "Trump Hispanic" voters when I first moved to Minnesota,

That's curious. Could you say a little more about that?

I thought all hispanics would loathe the death out of him, and most Hispanics I've come across do,
but there is a substantial minority of my Hispanic co-workers and friends who don't actually like Trump, but don't hate him either,
they like his Tax cuts as they are benefiting from it, his pro-life stance, his support for law enforcement and veterans,
btw my opinion is not scientific its based on anecdotes

Thanks. I mean, after 1964 (Civil Rights Act) there are still 10-15% of Afroamericans who still vote Republican, just like there can be Latino Trumpists...

[Technocracy Timmy]

With the Kavanaugh appointment, it solidified the Latinos and blacks behind Democrats, due to his stances on quotas and immigration.

and to "Technocracy Timmy" point, I was surprised by the amount of "Trump Hispanic" voters when I first moved to Minnesota,

That's curious. Could you say a little more about that?

I thought all hispanics would loathe the death out of him, and most Hispanics I've come across do,
but there is a substantial minority of my Hispanic co-workers and friends who don't actually like Trump, but don't hate him either,
they like his Tax cuts as they are benefiting from it, his pro-life stance, his support for law enforcement and veterans,
btw my opinion is not scientific its based on anecdotes

Yeah at least 1 in 4 Hispanic voters just flat out refuse to vote for Democrats. They’re conservative and unlike black voters with conservative tendencies, they’re much more willing to crossover and vote for Republican politicians.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

Latinx =/= Mexican, even though they're practically synonymous in Technocracy Timmy's neck of the woods.

This is true since nobody is Latinx.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

Huh?

[Dr. MB]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

Huh?

Dilma Rousseff, Hilda Solis, or Cruz Bustamante

[AudmanOut]

Worse

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

A lot of Hispanics are really white people who spoke Spanish or Portuguese before they spoke English. Think Spaniards and Cubans or Italians or Germans by way of Colombia or Brazil.

Note that if you check the record of "Miss Venezuela", you will often find a German-sounding surname on someone who looks as if she could be as easily from Nebraska by appearance. There is a large German settlement in Venezuela, and torta de la Selva Negra is what Americans recognize as Black Forest Cake. That's part of my cultural heritage, so I probably have distant relatives in Venezuela, some of whose ancestors came  from Baden-Wuerttemberg as did some of mine.  

According to the Census, Brazilians are not considered Hispanics.  I noticed that as an enumerator when I was checking up on some Brazilian family.

American Hispanics are highly likely to know an immigrant as either a spouse, parent, sibling, or grandparent.  The rhetoric about illegal immigrants ends up insulting the wrong people. Nobody denies that MS-13 is horrible, but for many Hispanics that rhetoric might suggest an in-law or potential mate. Illegal immigrants are not particularly prone to crime not related to status. Even with DUI and domestic abuse, they are on par with Americans as a whole. DUI and domestic violence can get one deported.

If I am dating do you think the first question that I ask is about status of citizenship? I think musical tastes are far more important for compatibility.

Puerto Ricans are not going to have a problem on citizenship, but the gross mismanagement of the relief efforts will not help the President among them. Many Puerto Ricans are in Florida and Georgia, states in contention in any close Presidential election, and now in Texas, now on the fringe of contention.

The Hispanic electorate is growing fast. It's hard to say whether the Anglo population is assimilating Mexican-Americans or whether Mexican-Americans are assimilating Anglos in such states as Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Texas.  

Yea, a lot of Austrians, Bavarians and other southern Germans moved to Latin America because of the shared religion. That had its downside after WW2 when many Nazis found a new home in Latin America in the German ethnic communities.

Look at the insane amount of Italian surnames on the Argentine soccer team. It's at least 1/3.

[beaver2.0]

Better.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

Latinx =/= Mexican, even though they're practically synonymous in Technocracy Timmy's neck of the woods.

This is true since nobody is Latinx.

lmao, true. I still think "Latino/Latina" better conveys the racial/geographic aspect of said group than "Hispanic" though.

I also doubt conservative Mexican/Central Americans are equally likely to vote GOP for President as they are for Congress and at the state/local level.

[Technocracy Timmy]

A lot of 2016 style arguments ITT. Trump basically showed that a very high number of Hispanic voters don’t give a sh**t about immigrant bashing since they themselves support it. Any Republican will get 25%+ of them to their side no matter how much white liberals complain.

Latinx =/= Mexican, even though they're practically synonymous in Technocracy Timmy's neck of the woods.

This is true since nobody is Latinx.

lmao, true. I still think "Latino/Latina" better conveys the racial/geographic aspect of said group than "Hispanic" though.

I also doubt conservative Mexican/Central Americans are equally likely to vote GOP for President as they are for Congress and at the state/local level.

Well local candidates who tailor their message to their respective communities likely do better with the group than the national Party but the same can be said of local democrats performance in places like Kentucky/West Virginia vs national Dems.

The point is that Trump showed that you can run as a full on bigot and still get basically Romney’s baseline of support among Hispanic voters since 25%+ of them will vote for the national GOP regardless. We can discuss the reasons for this but that point is crystal clear.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

Huh?

Dilma Rousseff, Hilda Solis, or Cruz Bustamante

But they aren't US politicians and won't be running in America? 

[Dr. MB]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

Huh?

Dilma Rousseff, Hilda Solis, or Cruz Bustamante

But they aren't US politicians and won't be running in America? 

Solis and Bustamante are American. Rousseff will move here soon due to Bolsonaro's election and run.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Much worse. Especially if Rousseff, Solis, or Bustamante runs, then they will suck up a huge % of the Hispanic vote. If Mitt Romney mounts a third party campaign he will also suck up whatever percent of the vote Trump had left. As, most Hispanics in America vote on identity politics.

Huh?

Dilma Rousseff, Hilda Solis, or Cruz Bustamante

But they aren't US politicians and won't be running in America? 

Solis and Bustamante are American. Rousseff will move here soon due to Bolsonaro's election and run.

My bad, I looked up Rousseff and didn't realize the other two were American.