PEI Provincial election 2019

[DistingFlyer]

Not at all sure about this one; Green victory still the most likely outcome but it looks like the Tories may be getting a last-minute lift (probably a combination of blue Liberals coming over to stop the Greens, and some new Green voters wavering at the last.)

Redistribution and the rise of a third party into contention for government tend to make MLA forecasts a little more of a gamble, but that's one of the things this site's for, so I might as well make a guess of my own:

GP 13 (36%)
PC 9 (34%)
Lib 4 (25%)

As for the PR vote, this is the question that means the most to me tonight; I staunchly oppose PR (my dream is for Aussie-style preferential, though I know it's very unlikely), and am always very frustrated by the poor arguments that its opponents always make to counter the (what I consider to be) misleading claims by its supporters. I even wrote my MP a frustrated letter a couple years ago on the subject. The PR side has led in most polls, but generally by modest margins, and since this question tends to poll better than it actually performs in the ballot box (just look at BC last fall - a huge relief to me), I think it will probably lose narrowly. A lot will depend on how the parties do, however: if Greens are getting out to vote in good numbers out of enthusiasm for a possible government, that could tip things the other way.

Will be watching both items with great interest, but it's the second that will have me digging my fingernails into the furniture. PEI does tend to count its votes fast, though (probably even faster with the big advance turnout), so we should have our answers soon.

As for the byelection, I suspect it will go with the government (whoever that is), unless the winners end up with 13 MLAs tonight - then you might have the opposition waging a successful campaign to 'Keep the Government in check.' Again, we shall see.

[DistingFlyer]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

They did outperform the polls in 11 and 15, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this three way race.

If the blue Liberal vote really crumbles and goes to them, it's possible, but I don't think it's very likely - remember that 36% of voters went to the advance polls, so a last-minute swing will be blunted a bit by that.

I still think it'll be a Green lead, but smaller than most have forecast.

[DistingFlyer]

Six polls in (seven referendum) now. Early thoughts:

Tories leading in three seats, including Alberton - Bloomfield. Augurs well for them. Liberals in one (a western seat, so to be expected), and Greens in two (including the leader's seat). Looks like a close Green-Tory fight, but I can't yet make a guess as to which will win.

Referendum: 'No' leads in five of seven polls, including the Tory & Liberal-leaning seats, and mostly by good margins too. I'm prepared to say that my prediction of a 'No' victory is correct, and maybe by a bigger margin than I expected.

[DistingFlyer]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

Counting started 30 minutes ago.

Most up-to-date figures can be found on the Elections PEI site:

http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/index.html
http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/referendum.html

Liberals now seem to be doing better than expected, and Greens worse. Maybe the whole issue of party organization & funding is showing itself here, as the Greens aren't as able to get their supporters out as the other two parties are?

At any rate, Charlottetown is still hanging back more than the other areas when it comes to the results, but the Tories have done well there before, so I wouldn't assume that to be necessarily a Green-Liberal battleground.

'Yes' doing well in central PEI , 'No' winning in east & west. I doubt that a big 'Yes' vote in Charlottetown will save it for them, though it will probably make it closer than it is right now. (I strongly oppose PR, so this was the big issue for me tonight rather than who would form government.) The referendum counting seems to be moving faster than the election, probably because (a) the turnout is lower and (b) there are only two choices to sort, rather than four or five.

[DistingFlyer]

I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the PCs will win the popular vote, but who will win most seats still unknown and a minority looks more likely than a majority.  At this point PC majority only one plausible but not likely.  Referendum has tightened as Charlottetown results came in so looks like the urban centres support MMP but rural areas against.

It's settled in at 11 Tories, 9 Greens and 6 Liberals for a while now - some close ones (outer Charlottetown, mostly) may flip but that looks like being the outcome.

Looks like the Tory vote has held up much better than forecast, and the Liberal collapse wasn't as complete as expected.

'Yes' racking up some wins in the Charlottetown area (and leading 14-13 overall), but the huge 'No' margins in the rural west should salvage a 'No' victory. Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic (especially given what I said so soon after the polls closed!) but I think that's what will happen. As long as 'No' wins, I'll be happy.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

[DistingFlyer]

Unless there's a future coalition or confidence-&-supply agreement, the big blue wave has claimed another victim. Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta, & now PEI... & with Newfoundland perhaps joining that list next month too.

The important question, however, is how long the PC's can last. I could definitely see a Premier Bevan-Baker happening fairly quickly. In all likelihood, the PC's will be asked to form a government. They must call the House together within 6 months, & that's when things will get funky. It looks like they'll just try to run a minority & get support where they can on a case-by-case basis, but if the Greens & the Liberals can indeed form a workable coalition or arrangement, then they can defeat the PC government at that point on a confidence motion, at which point, by convention, Bevan-Baker (as Leader of the Opposition) would be asked to form a government.

In other news:
MMP referendum officially defeated: the "No" side, in addition to winning province-wide with 51.1% of the popular vote, has officially won 12/27 ridings, one more than the threshold (11) needed to defeat the question according to the Referendum Act. Ironic that the "Yes" side has won a majority of ridings in the referendum & yet has lost the province-wide popular vote.

Also, funnily enough: there are now more Green seats in PEI than in the rest of Canada combined.

It is indeed - a lot of people expected that it might go the other way, with 'Yes' using up its vote in big majorities in Charlottetown. Instead, it's winning those constituencies by more modest (but still pretty good) margins, while the 'No' side is swamping the rural west: districts 25-27 all went more than 70% 'No,' while Victoria Park & Kensington - Malpeque are going more than 65% 'Yes.' That last district surprises me a little, given the strong Tory showing there.

I don't know that the Liberal loss here necessarily is reflective of a 'big blue wave' - Atlantic provinces tend to change governments even if they're still happy with them (such as when the Liberals won in PEI in 2007, or the Tories in NB in 1999), but just feel that 'it's time for a change.' Three terms seem to be the limit for PEI voters for the last forty years. Now, I'm not saying that discontent with the federal Grits had nothing to do with it, but the Liberals started sliding and the Greens started leading well before the federal party started smelling trouble for itself.

[DistingFlyer]

Another thing: unless we see a "plurality bump", C'town-Hillsborough Park is *not* likely to go Tory.

It doesn't look like it; that area wasn't too good to the Tories tonight.

Keep in mind, though, that there have been some pretty remarkable swings in by-elections held soon after a new government takes office (not just in PEI, but NB and NS too). It doesn't always happen, though, and it would have to for the Tories to take it, so odds are very good indeed that the Greens will get a tenth member in a month or so.

Not to mention, at the risk of sounding morbid, that the Greens may get a certain sympathy vote due to the death of their candidate, who probably would have won tonight. A lot may depend on who they run in his place.

[DistingFlyer]

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

[DistingFlyer]

While it is possible you will see a supply and confidence between Liberals and Greens, I believe it is very unlikely.  Unlike in other provinces, the ideological differences between parties are quite small with all three parties being broadly centrists.  Liberals playing second fiddle just further marginalizes them reducing the chance they ever return to power while Greens would be best to use their time in opposition to build up their profile and show they have a team ready to govern.  The PCs in contrast with other provinces are very much Red Tories so on a lot of issues they can find common ground with Liberals and NDP which you wouldn't in other provinces.

Agreed - you see that with the Atlantic provinces in general. Their Tory governments tend to be pretty moderate (even to the left of some Prairie NDP governments!), so the ideological gulf that you see federally or in Ontario isn't present. The Liberals & NDP will likely do exactly as you say, for exactly the reasons you say it.

Is the ideological moderation of the Tories just because of the Maritimes being more left-wing than the nation as a whole?

That's certainly part of it, as the economies tend to be more dependent on government funds than elsewhere in the country.

Additionally, Liberal administrations tend to be more centrist/right-leaning than their federal or Ontario counterparts are too. There's just much less of an ideological shift when governments change around here in general, and more just of a change of people running things and in certain policy areas.

That also connects with what I said before about still-popular governments getting replaced after a few terms, which tends not to happen elsewhere.

[DistingFlyer]

With the counts now completed, we can go into some details:

The largest margin of victory was Jamie Fox (PC) in Borden - Kinkora, who won by 39.2%. This is in keeping with the government side getting the biggest constituency majority - even in close elections - since 1966.

Previous title-holders:
2015 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 36.7%
2011 - Sonny Gallant (Lib) wins Evangeline - Miscouche by 58.5% (record for modern times)
2007 - Ron MacKinley (Lib) wins Cornwall - Meadowbank by 30.2%
2003 - Pat Binns (PC) wins Murray River - Gaspereaux by 42.5%
2000 - Mitch Murphy (PC) wins Kensington - Malpeque by 55.1% (Tory record)
1996 - Pat Mella (PC) wins Glen Stewart - Bellevue Cove by 42.2%
1993 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 47.5%
1989 - Edward Clark (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (C) by 54.3%
1986 - Stanley Bruce (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.1%
1982 - Jim Lee (PC) wins 5th Queens (A) by 29.1% (ironically, he went on to lose it in 1986)
1979 - George McMahon (PC) wins 5th Prince (A) by 42.8%
1978 - James Fay (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 26.7%
1974 - Bob Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 34.7%
1970 - Alex Campbell (Lib) wins 5th Prince (C) by 35.9%
1966 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 25.5%
1962 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 28.3% (Liberal wins biggest margin, in spite of narrow PC victory provincewide)
1959 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 23.1% (see above)
1955 - Lorne Bonnell (Lib) wins 4th Kings (A) by 42.2%
1951 - Harvey Douglas (Lib) wins 2nd Kings (A) by 25.1%
1947 - Wilfred Arsenault (Lib) wins 3rd Prince (A) by 45.8%
1943 - Tom Kickham (Lib) wins 1st Kings (C) by 22.8%
1939 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 21.8%
1935 - Thane Campbell (Lib) wins 1st Prince (C) by 30.9% (the famous 30-seat Liberal sweep)

[DistingFlyer]

Looking more closely at the constituencies, I see - in reference to my earlier surprise at the big 'Yes' margin in Kensington - Malpeque - that there's a big difference in turnout between the referendum & the general election; far larger than in any other riding.

To wit: 2357 valid votes cast in the referendum (65.7% for 'Yes') while 3233 were cast in the general election (62.1% for PC Matthew MacKay).

Barring a counting error, has anyone any idea what happened in that district to account for that big turnout disparity?


EDIT: Looks like a counting error after all, unless one is prepared to believe that the advance poll registered 89% 'Yes' votes and a much smaller total vote than the general election. I'm going to guess that that count of 94 'No' in the advance poll is going to end up being 794 or 943 or something like that.

Should that be the case, and there are 700-900 more 'No' votes, then that makes the final figures 52%-48%, so I at least forecast one of the outcomes correctly!

[DistingFlyer]

Going into the weeds a little further, let's compare how well the parties did in their own ridings.

In the twelve Tory seats, the votes ran as follows:

PC - 49.3% (12 MLAs)
GP - 25.1%
Lib - 24.0%
NDP - 1.4%

'No' - 53.8% (8 )
'Yes' - 46.2% (4)

In the eight Green ridings, things look like this:

GP - 41.6% (8 MLAs)
Lib - 27.9%
PC - 27.4%
NDP - 3.0%

'Yes' - 54.4% (6)
'No' - 45.6% (2)


And in the six Grit constituencies, things ran thus:

Lib - 43.3% (6 MLAs)
GP - 26.5%
PC - 22.8%
NDP - 6.2%

'No' - 57.5% (3)
'Yes' - 42.5% (3)

That high 'No' is almost entirely due to those western seats going so heavily against. The three in central PEI all voted 'Yes.'


What to glean from these numbers? Bearing in mind that the ballots have barely cooled and this is hardly a long-considered analysis, I'd say that it shows that there were no set two-party fights in the province (that is to say, there were plenty of PC-Green, PC-Lib, Lib-Green contests, with some very strong third-place showings too), as evidenced by all three types of seat showing a fairly evenly-divided non-winners vote. The next election will be interesting, as third-placed parties will probably drop back in most ridings, to the benefit/cost to all three parties.

As expected, Green seats voted 'Yes' much more than the other parties' districts did, though the Liberal seats definitely showed a rural-urban split on the question (all parties' seats showed this, but the Liberals most of all - again, thanks to those far west seats).


EDIT (16 May): Have updated the above figures now that official tallies have been published by Elections PEI. I was correct about one thing: the advance poll result for the referendum was wrong for Kensington - Malpeque, flipping it to 'No' (making it 13-14), and the total 'No' vote to 52%.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

There are other ways of doing proportional representation where voters do vote directly for candidates. STV easily comes to mind

Yes, and I wouldn't necessarily mind that method, particularly in a geographically small province like PEI (or NS, where I live). It's not such a good idea for the big provinces or federally, where the multi-member ridings would be so vast in places (northern Ontario, the Territories, etc.) that it wouldn't really be practical to use.