PEI Provincial election 2019

[mileslunn]

Prince Edward Island has their election scheduled for next year on October 7th.  Since that is only 14 days before the federal election it is possible they move it up to the spring of 2019 or back to 2020.  At this point polls suggest a three way face.  Liberals have been in power for 3 terms so the fatigue and desire for change will make getting re-elected a challenge but not impossible.  PEI has a general trend of 3 Liberal terms and 3 PC terms so history is on the side of the PCs, but so far they've been struggling and not connecting well.  Off course that could change during the course of the campaign.  Green Party is very popular and leading in some polls so will be interesting if those numbers hold up or not.  Also PEI having a minority government like New Brunswick and BC is a very real possibility too.

[Harlow]

Important to note is that the next election will coincide with a referendum on electoral reform, which has been one of the main policy positions of Peter Bevan-Baker, the PEI Green Party's leader. A prior referendum in 2016 received only 36% turnout, which the Liberal government deemed illegitimate. After that referendum, the Green Party's polling numbers jumped from the single digits to the mid-20s. They now poll in the high-20s to high-30s, the best numbers of any provincial Green Party in Canada.

The Green Party stands to gain from a shift to proportional representation, since it's not clear whether their possible percentage of the vote under the current first-past-the-post system will be spread effectively and translate to enough seats to rival the Liberals and PCs. Will one of Canada's last two-party systems finally be fractured?

This election is definitely the one I'm most interested in following next year.

[Don Vito Corleone]

It is worth keeping in mind the Liberals won a majority last time around with a lead of only 3%. If their main opponents in 2019 are the Greens rather then the PCs, they could well win a majority while trailing in the vote count.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is worth keeping in mind the Liberals won a majority last time around with a lead of only 3%. If their main opponents in 2019 are the Greens rather then the PCs, they could well win a majority while trailing in the vote count.

fun fact - 119 votes switching from Liberal to PC in 2015 takes them to 14 seats, a bare majority. 372 seats switching in two other ridings gives the PCs a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

Eagerly awaiting a Green win immediately followed by their reneging on their promise of electoral reform.

[Hatman 🍁]

Eagerly awaiting a Green win immediately followed by their reneging on their promise of electoral reform.

Heh. I would very much doubt that would happen (the latter, I mean).

As much as I used to hate the Greens, I think I would be very pleased to see them win on PEI. The NDP there is useless.

[Harlow]

Eagerly awaiting a Green win immediately followed by their reneging on their promise of electoral reform.

Considering it has been one of their main policy positions and how much their polling numbers increased directly after the 2016 referendum, I highly doubt they'd be able to get away with that.

[mileslunn]

MQO research and Mainstreet research both have polls out here.  Looks like a tight three way race so probably a minority if an election were held today.  Interesting to see if this holds, but definitely anyone of the three parties has a shot as support tends to be reasonably evenly distributed across the island so a slight uptick for any of the three could yield a majority.

MQO

Green 32%
Liberal 31%
PC 30%
NDP 7%

Mainstreet

Liberal 33.4%
Green 29.7%
PC 28.3%
NDP 6.7%

MQO also has federal numbers and while Liberals still well ahead, Green surge provincially is somewhat spilling over federally.  Tories down slightly, although I think Green and NDP support will be key as they will need strong splits to win any seats on the island.

Liberal 44%
Conservative 30%
Green 14%
NDP 11%

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Looks to be an exciting race. I should warn all of you, despite my D-PE avatar, I know very little about PEI politics (haven’t even been there).

[mileslunn]

Looks to be an exciting race. I should warn all of you, despite my D-PE avatar, I know very little about PEI politics (haven’t even been there).

That assumes numbers stay the same, my thoughts on the three parties are as follows:


Liberals: They've been in power since 2007 so becoming a bit stale and strong desire for change, nonetheless haven't had any major scandals or radically unpopular policies so if they can convince the public the other two are too risky, could still win a majority.  Also one hidden advantage is they have the majority of incumbent MLAs so that might give them a small advantage.  Still when PEI decides to change governments, they usually swing quite hard so a near wipe out is just as easily possible.  With support being fairly evenly distributed, or at least more so than other provinces, it wouldn't take that big an uptick to get into majority territory and likewise only a small drop to lose outright.


PCs: Have an uninspiring leader and little media attention, but if they perform well on the campaign trail could easily get a majority.  In the last two elections, final results showed the PCs getting 10-15% higher than what they had going in.  Since they are fairly centrist unlike their federal counterparts, could be some confusion so many Red Tories who find the federal Tories too right wing are parking their votes elsewhere, but will move over to the PCs once they realize they are like the Clark/Stanfield PCs, not the Harper/Scheer Tories.  At the same time if it becomes a change election and the Greens are seen as the better party to achieve this, might get marginalized thus struggling to hold what they have. 

Green Party:  Most popular leader and that bodes well as usually when leader's popularity is above party, their numbers tend to rise.  Main problem is weak organization and may have a tougher time attracting cabinet material as candidates, so when they come under greater scrutiny, numbers could easily fall back.


Another possibility is if a minority you might like BC and New Brunswick see some interesting drama.  While one might assume Greens would favour Liberals over PCs, I am not so sure.  PCs and Liberals unlike federally are both centrists so differences ideologically are small.  Liberals refusal to implement PR might mean Greens will support PCs if they promise to implement PR even if Liberals win a plurality of seats.  By the same token, PCs promise to support Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and likely soon Alberta in challenging the feds on the carbon tax so that might make a PC-Green alliance difficult.  Also considering how rural PEI is compared to other provinces, the carbon tax might hurt the Greens whereas in more urban provinces it would work in their favour.

[Harlow]

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/12/03/pei-green-party_a_23607272/

This article touches on the Greens' success, though it acknowledges that much of it may be limited to urban centers (aka Charlottetown).

The article also mentions that the PCs have been plagued by infighting for almost a decade––does anyone have more info about why that is?

New CRA poll coming later this week.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out showing tight race between Greens and Liberals, while PCs in third but still within striking distance

Mainstreet

Liberals 35.2%
Greens 30.8%
PCs 29.6%
NDP 2.7%

MQO research

Greens 34%
Liberals 33%
PCs 28%
NDP 2%

[mileslunn]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

[Harlow]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

[Conservatopia]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

One could argue M5S is a green party too.

[IceAgeComing]

One could argue M5S is a green party too.

I mean people also argue that the world is flat and that the moon is made of cheese; doesn't mean that its right!

[Smid]

Base map in the Gallery.

[Harlow]

Wow, thanks a lot!

[trebor204]

The PCs have elected Dennis King as their new leader.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-pc-leadership-convention-dennis-king-wins-1.5012283

[Lachi]

Greens need a much larger PV lead if they want any hope of getting ahead of the Libs in seat count. at this point, I think it'll be a Liberal minority with the greens in supply.

[Former President tack50]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

Aren't the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens pretty much green in name only?

[MAINEiac4434]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

Aren't the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens pretty much green in name only?

Yeah. Calling them a “green” party is like calling the DPRK “Democratic”. Just because ya in the name doesn’t make it so.

[Harlow]

Most seats Greens have ever won in any province is 3 (currently hold that in British Columbia and New Brunswick).  So if Greens win in PEI, it will be first Green government in Canada and I believe second globally.  They've been junior partners in many countries but I believe the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg is the only one they were actually the senior partner.

The centrist Farmers and Greens in Lithuania formed government with the Social Democrats as partners in 2016, and Iceland has a Left-Green prime minister although they aren’t the largest party.

Aren't the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens pretty much green in name only?

Yeah. Calling them a “green” party is like calling the DPRK “Democratic”. Just because ya in the name doesn’t make it so.

And yet they are members of the G/EFA (though not affiliated with the Global Greens, so point taken there).

[Harlow]

The Greens with their largest polling lead yet, as the PCs get a post-leadership election bump and seem to take from the Liberals.

https://cra.ca/pei-greens-show-lead-over-governing-liberals-as-provincial-election-looms/

Greens: 38%
PCs: 29%
Liberals: 27%

Feb. 4-24

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

How much would the Greens have to win the pop vote in order to gain a majority?