PEI Provincial election 2019

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

They did outperform the polls in 11 and 15, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this three way race.

[DistingFlyer]

Anyone here think a PC majority is possible?  While skeptical, Forum showed them ahead and they were closest to federal results.  Also PEI Tories are very much your traditional Red Tories so its not uncommon for them to do poorly in between elections due to confusion with federal party which is a bit too right wing for PEI, but then as focus turns to province see their numbers go up.

They did outperform the polls in 11 and 15, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility, especially with this three way race.

If the blue Liberal vote really crumbles and goes to them, it's possible, but I don't think it's very likely - remember that 36% of voters went to the advance polls, so a last-minute swing will be blunted a bit by that.

I still think it'll be a Green lead, but smaller than most have forecast.

[DistingFlyer]

Six polls in (seven referendum) now. Early thoughts:

Tories leading in three seats, including Alberton - Bloomfield. Augurs well for them. Liberals in one (a western seat, so to be expected), and Greens in two (including the leader's seat). Looks like a close Green-Tory fight, but I can't yet make a guess as to which will win.

Referendum: 'No' leads in five of seven polls, including the Tory & Liberal-leaning seats, and mostly by good margins too. I'm prepared to say that my prediction of a 'No' victory is correct, and maybe by a bigger margin than I expected.

[mileslunn]

Six polls in (seven referendum) now. Early thoughts:



Referendum: 'No' leads in five of seven polls, including the Tory & Liberal-leaning seats, and mostly by good margins too. I'm prepared to say that my prediction of a 'No' victory is correct, and maybe by a bigger margin than I expected.

Not surprised, it seems much like in BC and past referendums the undecided breaks for the status quo.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What sites are you guys using for results?

[jaichind]

Greens seems to be under-performing 

[ON Progressive]

Greens seems to be under-performing 

I'd wait until we have more than 1 poll and until we have Charlottetown results to say that.

[DC Al Fine]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

[136or142]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

[DC Al Fine]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

They closed 7 Atlantic, not 7 Eastern.

[136or142]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

They closed 7 Atlantic, not 7 Eastern.

Thanks.  I thought I read a CBC news story that said '8 PM sharp.'

[DistingFlyer]

What sites are you guys using for results?

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/pei/2019/results/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/cbc-pei-election-watch-live-1.5107105

I thought the polls only closed now.

Counting started 30 minutes ago.

Most up-to-date figures can be found on the Elections PEI site:

http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/index.html
http://results.electionspei.ca/provincial/results_2019/referendum.html

Liberals now seem to be doing better than expected, and Greens worse. Maybe the whole issue of party organization & funding is showing itself here, as the Greens aren't as able to get their supporters out as the other two parties are?

At any rate, Charlottetown is still hanging back more than the other areas when it comes to the results, but the Tories have done well there before, so I wouldn't assume that to be necessarily a Green-Liberal battleground.

'Yes' doing well in central PEI , 'No' winning in east & west. I doubt that a big 'Yes' vote in Charlottetown will save it for them, though it will probably make it closer than it is right now. (I strongly oppose PR, so this was the big issue for me tonight rather than who would form government.) The referendum counting seems to be moving faster than the election, probably because (a) the turnout is lower and (b) there are only two choices to sort, rather than four or five.

[mileslunn]

I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the PCs will win the popular vote, but who will win most seats still unknown and a minority looks more likely than a majority.  At this point PC majority only one plausible but not likely.  Referendum has tightened as Charlottetown results came in so looks like the urban centres support MMP but rural areas against.

[136or142]

From my count on the CBC TV, 10 P.Cs have been declared elected so far, 3 Greens and 1 Liberal.

[DistingFlyer]

I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion the PCs will win the popular vote, but who will win most seats still unknown and a minority looks more likely than a majority.  At this point PC majority only one plausible but not likely.  Referendum has tightened as Charlottetown results came in so looks like the urban centres support MMP but rural areas against.

It's settled in at 11 Tories, 9 Greens and 6 Liberals for a while now - some close ones (outer Charlottetown, mostly) may flip but that looks like being the outcome.

Looks like the Tory vote has held up much better than forecast, and the Liberal collapse wasn't as complete as expected.

'Yes' racking up some wins in the Charlottetown area (and leading 14-13 overall), but the huge 'No' margins in the rural west should salvage a 'No' victory. Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic (especially given what I said so soon after the polls closed!) but I think that's what will happen. As long as 'No' wins, I'll be happy.

[adma]

This is a weird election; almost like New Brunswick in reverse--not to mention an inverse of that historical PEI pattern where small polling margins can yield massive seat differences.

I sort of had an inkling the PCs might wind up on top, what w/that late poll showing them in the lead--and sure enough, they have a huge polling headway.  But it looks like a lot of that has been wasted on rural landslides; so what *should* be a solid PC victory vs split opposition has turned into a minority.  (And proof that even in PEI, the urban-rural left-right sorting trend has prevailed.)

Oh, and the PCs are up to 12, with the Premier falling behind in his own seat.

[136or142]

This is a weird election; almost like New Brunswick in reverse--not to mention an inverse of that historical PEI pattern where small polling margins can yield massive seat differences.

I sort of had an inkling the PCs might wind up on top, what w/that late poll showing them in the lead--and sure enough, they have a huge polling headway.  But it looks like a lot of that has been wasted on rural landslides; so what *should* be a solid PC victory vs split opposition has turned into a minority.  (And proof that even in PEI, the urban-rural left-right sorting trend has prevailed.)

Oh, and the PCs are up to 12, with the Premier falling behind in his own seat.

I don't know if it's large wins in rural ridings or large wins for the incumbents.

[mileslunn]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

[JerryArkansas]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

[DistingFlyer]

CBC just called it a PC minority.  While it's possible Liberals could prop up the Greens, my guess is unlike BC, the PCs are Red Tories here so it will be an issue by issue and Dennis King will be next premier.  Forum once again was closest and the pattern of underestimating conservative parties continues.

Not only were they the most accurate (like they were last week with Alberta), but it looks like they underestimated the Tory vote too (just like they did with Alberta). Very interesting result, and perhaps bodes well for the federal party in six months.

Referendum looks like it's going down to the wire - it may prove closer to my forecast this morning (52-48) than I thought. 'No' has won ten constituencies, so it just needs one more for a victory. Here's hoping it not only gets that technical victory but an outright 'No' majority - otherwise there will be further cries of 'unfair' and the like, and probably another referendum. The pro-PR crowd will just keep having more, in different provinces, until they get what they want.

Why such the boner against MMP?  It works fine in germany and all you keep doing in this thread is bitch about it.

I'm not denying that other countries are fine with it - Germany, NZ, etc. - but, for me, it violates the essential principle that all MPs/MLAs should be directly elected by the voters, rather than some being elected that way and some getting in by virtue of being highly-ranked on party lists. Parties already have too much power in this country, and PR would not improve that situation. That's my biggest (though not only) objection. Usually those who oppose it go on about minority government and the like, but that's never really bothered me.

You make a fair point, though - I have been a bit over-vehement about it here. The tension of a close result, I guess. Will refrain from excessive editorializing from here on.

[adma]

I don't know if it's large wins in rural ridings or large wins for the incumbents.

True enough; if you were a Tory incumbent, there was little reason for voters to vote against you this time around (least of all stunting on behalf of the Greens).

Taking away the 8 seats where Tory incumbents were running, in the balance the Libs actually have a slight vote plurality, the Tories are in third and less than five points separates the three parties.

[adma]

Another thing: unless we see a "plurality bump", C'town-Hillsborough Park is *not* likely to go Tory.

[brucejoel99]

Unless there's a future coalition or confidence-&-supply agreement, the big blue wave has claimed another victim. Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta, & now PEI... & with Newfoundland perhaps joining that list next month too.

The important question, however, is how long the PC's can last. I could definitely see a Premier Bevan-Baker happening fairly quickly. In all likelihood, the PC's will be asked to form a government. They must call the House together within 6 months, & that's when things will get funky. It looks like they'll just try to run a minority & get support where they can on a case-by-case basis, but if the Greens & the Liberals can indeed form a workable coalition or arrangement, then they can defeat the PC government at that point on a confidence motion, at which point, by convention, Bevan-Baker (as Leader of the Opposition) would be asked to form a government.

In other news:
MMP referendum officially defeated: the "No" side, in addition to winning province-wide with 51.1% of the popular vote, has officially won 12/27 ridings, one more than the threshold (11) needed to defeat the question according to the Referendum Act. Ironic that the "Yes" side has won a majority of ridings in the referendum & yet has lost the province-wide popular vote.

Also, funnily enough: there are now more Green seats in PEI than in the rest of Canada combined.

[DistingFlyer]

Unless there's a future coalition or confidence-&-supply agreement, the big blue wave has claimed another victim. Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta, & now PEI... & with Newfoundland perhaps joining that list next month too.

The important question, however, is how long the PC's can last. I could definitely see a Premier Bevan-Baker happening fairly quickly. In all likelihood, the PC's will be asked to form a government. They must call the House together within 6 months, & that's when things will get funky. It looks like they'll just try to run a minority & get support where they can on a case-by-case basis, but if the Greens & the Liberals can indeed form a workable coalition or arrangement, then they can defeat the PC government at that point on a confidence motion, at which point, by convention, Bevan-Baker (as Leader of the Opposition) would be asked to form a government.

In other news:
MMP referendum officially defeated: the "No" side, in addition to winning province-wide with 51.1% of the popular vote, has officially won 12/27 ridings, one more than the threshold (11) needed to defeat the question according to the Referendum Act. Ironic that the "Yes" side has won a majority of ridings in the referendum & yet has lost the province-wide popular vote.

Also, funnily enough: there are now more Green seats in PEI than in the rest of Canada combined.

It is indeed - a lot of people expected that it might go the other way, with 'Yes' using up its vote in big majorities in Charlottetown. Instead, it's winning those constituencies by more modest (but still pretty good) margins, while the 'No' side is swamping the rural west: districts 25-27 all went more than 70% 'No,' while Victoria Park & Kensington - Malpeque are going more than 65% 'Yes.' That last district surprises me a little, given the strong Tory showing there.

I don't know that the Liberal loss here necessarily is reflective of a 'big blue wave' - Atlantic provinces tend to change governments even if they're still happy with them (such as when the Liberals won in PEI in 2007, or the Tories in NB in 1999), but just feel that 'it's time for a change.' Three terms seem to be the limit for PEI voters for the last forty years. Now, I'm not saying that discontent with the federal Grits had nothing to do with it, but the Liberals started sliding and the Greens started leading well before the federal party started smelling trouble for itself.