Canadian Election 2019

[parochial boy]

Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.

Pretty naive of you to try and say something actually relevant, tbh

[mileslunn]

Lets stay on topic instead of personal opinions here.  If you think the Khadr cheque will have an impact then mention it and why, but leave your personal politics out.  If you want to discuss that, start in page in the personal politics section.  I created this just as created one for PEI and Newfoundland as following US Election Atlas policies, it says don't create one more than a year out so I create a topic usually just under a year before the election as now with fixed dates much of what happens in terms of events will be about each party positioning themselves to win or make gains as opposed to what is best policy.  Otherwise the focus is going to be for all three parties on winning and thus it will all be about what groups they think they can pick up and avoiding any controversial statements or policies that could sink their chances.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm, I thought we shouldn't be judged for what we did as kids? Just ask your newest Supreme Court Justice. Oh wait, we're talking about a Muslim here, I forgot.

This thread is an absolute dumpster fire. Hopefully it gets deleted and we can start anew a bit closer to the election.

He murdered an American soldier and is a terrorist



The fact that you libs have been defending the fact that he was released is another reason why you guys deserve to be landslided in 2019

"you guys"? You're the first person here to ever accuse me of being a Liberal.

[adma]

Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...

[DC Al Fine]

Have to quibble with Miles characterization of Atlantic Canada.
Red Toryism in Atlantic Canada is not same as Red Toryism on the pages of the Globe & Mail. We love our EI benefits, which is why Harperism flopped, but a more free spending, semi-populist (i.e. not as far as Fordism) conservatism could make some solid inroads here.

There has been a ~12% swing which is likely concentrated among rural Anglos. Just eyeballing it I would project the Tories picking up half a dozen rural Anglo seats quite easily and quite possibly more if the Liberals falter a little bit.

Pretty naive of you to try and say something actually relevant, tbh

Thanks I try my best

[mileslunn]

Memo to Old School Republican: get out of this thread, you're derailing it.

Oh, and back to the topic at hand: somehow, I *can* see Maxime Bernier winning his own seat, even if his party dumpster-fires elsewhere.  In effect, he might as well be "independent", much like his father in 1993...

He is quite popular in his riding, but his stance on supply management might hurt him.  I believe his riding has more dairy farmers than any other riding in Canada so probably not the best riding to be in when going after one of the largest contributors to the local economy.  If he were a suburban riding or rural riding with few Dairy farmers (not many in the Prairies) it might work in his favour.  Both Legault and Ford despite being conservatives are strong supporters of supply management and for good reasons.  Their strongest showings were in rural ridings where dairy farming is an important part of the economy.

[mileslunn]

Nanos has some recent polls out showing Liberals with an almost 12 point lead and the Tories at 27.5%, the lowest they've been since May 2017.  Whether this is a trend or blip, hard to say but would be interested to see other pollsters weigh in.  Mainstreet research should be out soon and Quito Maggi tweeted PPC doing better than other pollsters.  If true, my guess is the carbon tax stance is hurting the Tories.  Most people want action on climate change, but don't want it to cost too much.  If the carbon tax didn't involve rebates, it might be a winning issue for the Tories, but the inclusion of rebates turns the tables.  MQO as mentioned in PEI and Newfoundland headings has polls for the provinces.  For Nova Scotia, looks good for the Liberals, but the Tories have decent numbers, their problem is the NDP is very weak so lack of splits, but if they can hold their numbers and NDP gets an uptick could regain some of the ridings they lost in Mainland Rural Nova Scotia.  In New Brunswick, Tories have a slight lead over Liberals so likely the results would be similar to the last provincial election.  While things can change, I would be shocked if the Liberals sweep New Brunswick again.  I suspect the Tories will win seats in New Brunswick, maybe Nova Scotia, but not likely in PEI or Newfoundland.  For the NDP, any win in Atlantic Canada will probably come from having a popular candidate in a riding where there is no chance of vote splits.  It looks like much like PEI, Greens due to probably provincial strength are getting a strong bounce in New Brunswick.

Nova Scotia

Liberal 50%
Conservative 34%
NDP 10%
Green6%


New Brunswick

Conservative 38%
Liberal 35%
Green 15%
NDP8%

With those numbers, I suspect Tories would easily take Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, and Fundy-Royal.  Saint John-Rothesay, Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Central Nova, and Cumberland-Colchester would likely be close battles.  West Nova seems to have swung pretty heavily Liberal, so skeptical about a Tory pick up here.  South Shore-St. Margaret's only went Tory due to strong Liberal/NDP splits which are lacking at the moment.  Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche have large Francophone communities so I could be wrong, but I am thinking the provincial government and unpopularity of Higgs and PANB amongst Francophones (fairly popular amongst Anglophones, but not Francophones) would probably hurt their chances never mind in 2015 it appears the Anglophone conservative vote dropped a lot, but it didn't implode like it did in Francophone areas.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet research is out nationally.  Liberals similar numbers to Nanos, but Tories doing somewhat better although even though the topline numbers may suggest a competitive political landscape, the regional numbers paint a much bleaker picture for the Tories.  BC is close, Tories have a big lead in the Prairie provinces and that is the main reason the party appears competitive but running up the margins there may push vote total up, but not seat total.  Ontario and Quebec, Liberals both have large leads and are in great position to hold the seats they have now and in Quebec even gain, while the Tories in both cases are in good shape to hold what they have now, but to win or even come close they need strong gains in at least one if not both provinces and that is not the case at the moment in either.  In Atlantic Canada, Liberals still maintain a large lead although Tories are up enough from 2015 to probably win a few seats thus avoiding a complete shutout, but Liberals would still win the lion's share.  NDP is very weak and their low support here (although for whatever reason Mainstreet always seems to underestimate them compared to others) is probably one of the biggest things Trudeau has going for him provided this holds.  The people's Party is at 3.8% so higher than most other polls, but still a very small number but enough to cost the Tories many close seats.  Nonetheless, while combining CPC + PPC would put the two in a statistical tie, Liberals would still win a majority even if all PPC votes went to the CPC due to vote inefficiency of CPC.

Liberal 39.3%
Conservative 34.6%
NDP 10.8%
Green 6.8%
PPC 3.8%
BQ 3.4%

[adma]

Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993

[mileslunn]

Frankly, with a NDP number that low, I'd worry that they're poised to be "Audreyed" a la 1993

Mainstreet always puts them on the low side, so I think they will still get over 12 seats.  They will probably lose most in Quebec, but the east side of Montreal voted heavily QS so think they have a chance there.  In Ontario they should win some while in Manitoba as the unpopular NDP government, which hurt them in 2015 is gone, they should hold or maybe gain.  In BC have a strong base and pockets where they always do well and unlike in 1993, the BC NDP government has recently decent approval ratings so they won't be dragged down by them like they were in 1974, 1993, 1997, and 2000 (caveat that assumes the BC NDP government's approval stays where it is and doesn't tank).  In Saskatchewan, they are the main alternative to the Tories not the Liberals and with a strong urban/rural divide and an end of the gerrymandered rural/urban split ridings, they should win a few urban Saskatchewan ones.  Never mind Scott Moe while popular, not as popular as Brad Wall was in 2015 and his strong numbers are more due to sky high support in rural Saskatchewan, in the two cities he is not so popular.

Definitely possible, but I think this happening is about as likely as the Liberals dropping below 100 seats or Tories falling below 70 seats.  I could see NDP falling below 20 seats, but think below 12 is not very likely.

[MaxQue]

Two bills renaming ridings passed the House and are now in front of the Senate.

C-377 renames Châteauguay-Lacolle in Châteauguay--Les-Jardins-de-Napierville. Makes sense, as Lacolle isn't in the riding (the boundary commission even admitted their mistake) while Les-Jardins-de-Napierville is a county covering most of the riding.

C-402 renames 16 ridings.

Cape Breton-Canso in Cape Breton-North Nova.
South Shore-St. Margaret's in South Nova
Syndey-Victoria in Cape Breton by the Sea.

A bunch of horrible Tourism Board like names.

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis in Lévis-Bellechasse-Etchemins. A fine choice, going by population order rather than alphabetical.
Jonquière in Jonquière--Haut-Saguenay. Makes sense, it makes clear the riding is now covering a large rural component (unlike the old Jonquière-Alma).
Manicouagan in Côte-Nord. Common sense.
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot in Saint-Hyacinthe--Acton. Bagot isn't a county since the 1979 reforms, being replaced by Acton MRC.

Mississauga-Streetsville in Streetsville-Meadowvale-Lisgar. More confusing
Nickel Belt in Greater Sudbury-Nickel Belt

Charleswood-St. James-Annisiboia-Headingley in Winnipeg West-Headingley
Regina-Lewvan in Regina West
Calgary-Signal Hill in Calgary West. Great ideas
Fort McMurray-Cold Lake in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche-Cold Lake

Burnaby-South in Burnaby-Douglas
Langley-Aldergrove in Langley-West Abbotsford
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon in Abbotsford-Mission-Fraser Canyon

[DC Al Fine]

Ugh those NS names are horrible. No one uses ______ Nova in real life.

[toaster]

Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 

[adma]

Don't all Mississauga ridings have the name Mississauga in them?  Why take one out?  Also, Greater Sudbury - Nickel Belt is confusing, but I guess you can't really name all the (formerly separate) surrounding municipalities. 

Re Mississauga: it's almost like Toronto-Danforth in reverse.

And isn't Greater Sudbury and Nickel Belt practically one and the same?  Better off calling it Nickel Belt-Sturgeon Falls, then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'Cape Breton by the Sea' is hilarious given a) rather obviously all of Cape Breton is by the sea and b) that the riding covers some of the most horrifying postindustrial dystopia in all North America...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

[mileslunn]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.

[Njall]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Unless oil rebounds strongly, they will be lucky to hold the two seats they hold.  While not Trudeau's fault for lack of pipeline being built or low oil prices, being government of the day doesn't help.  That being said Calgary-Confederation is probably the lowest hanging fruit.

In terms of Tories attacks, agreed as the base hates Trudeau with a passion but amongst swing voters they don't love Trudeau but don't either hate him with a passion.

I would be very surprised if my hometown swung any more towards the Liberals in 2019. Had Hehr and Kang not both received sexual harassment allegations, they may have been able to keep their seats, but the Liberals now have pretty slim odds in both seats. That said, it's worth noting that Calgary Skyview behaves very differently than the rest of Calgary, so if the Liberals find a strong on-the-ground candidate and Kang doesn't try to run as an Indy, they could still win. Depending on candidates, Centre and Confederation will be close, but ultimately I think the Conservatives will win both.

Calgary is an interesting case because it has a growing small-l liberal streak, but still votes big-C Conservative in partisan elections overall. With a rapidly expanding, young, and highly educated population, Calgary will continue to become friendlier to progressive candidates as time goes on, but it will take time and a concentrated effort by parties and candidates to break the Conservative hold on the city.

[Continential]

How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

[brucejoel99]

How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

B/c after his shaky start as leader, he was under intense pressure to get into the Commons sooner rather than later, so he announced in August that he'd run in the eventual by-election in Burnaby South, which was vacated in mid-September by former NDP MP Kennedy Stewart so he could run for Mayor of Vancouver. Unfortunately, not being a fortune teller, he couldn't predict that the MP for the riding he represented for 6 years in the Ontario legislature (& in which he'd likely coast to victory) would resign, so if he says he's changing his mind & running in Brampton, then not only does that screw over the Burnaby NDP, but it also makes him look like a huge hypocrite after declaring he'd run in BC.

[136or142]

How come Singh is running in BC when he lives in Ontario

Because all of Canada is now a suburb of Toronto

[DC Al Fine]

I think it would be a mistake for Tories to rely heavily on personal attacks on Lil Justin. I understand there's something about his personality that drives the cadre nuts, but it's clear your median swing voters don't share this antipathy, finding him on balance a nice enough person. For some reason, the conservative party of Canada really likes its negative campaigning, but I don't see it working unless combined with some national recession (which of course can't be ruled out).

Agreed, but what would you propose as an alternative strategy?

Weird question: can Liberals penetrate more of Calgary, given their liberal Mayor and vast expanding population?

Long term sure, but in the short term, low oil prices and lack of pipeline progress have pushed unemployment well over the national average. That negative Tory campaign during a recession strategy that you mentioned would be more applicable here than the rest of the country. The Liberals are already down 7-8% since the last election in Alberta and its not like they had much room to fall outside the big cities.

Plus, as Miles mentioned, both of the Liberal Calgary MP's have been MeToo'd which doesn't help.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Agreed, but what would you propose as an alternative strategy?

As I understand it, a big problem in Canada at the moment is that although baseline growth is good, wages are stagnant and cost of living expenses are rising. I'd base a national conervative campaign on those sort of lines: GST cuts, vigorously campaign against carbon taxes (which of course worked very well for the LNP, although Miles post above suggests that isn't enough at the moment) and, most importantly, further immigration (note I don't mean a "Muslims will eat your kids" campaign, which isn't necessary here and has the potential to backfire).

Not groundbreaking stuff as campaign fodder, obviously, but I can't see how the whole "Trudeau is an evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet" line will actually work, unless the man independently soils his image or the economy collapses and he comes across as Nero at his fiddle.

[Poirot]

Forum's new poll is different from the other polling firms. It gives a Conservative majority.

Conservatives 43%
Liberals 34%
NDP 11%
Greens 6%
Bloc 4%
Others 1%
 
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2908/federal-horserace-december-2018/

They don't seem to be polling Bernier's party. Considering the Conservative party has had trouble staying over the mid-30s, at 43% it would be a big shift.

[Poirot]

Léger's November poll is more in line with the average of polls.

Liberal 39%
Conservative 33%
NDP 14%
Green 5%
People 4%
Bloc 4%
Other 1%

Bernier's party demographics is more male and 18-34 of age.

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Federal%20Politics%20(final)%20-%20November%202018.pdf

There is a section rating satisfaction with actions taken by the government. Regional numbers give a geographic idea even if samples are small.

Creating jobs and economic development: 53% satisfied (highest in Atlantic, lowest in Alberta)
Deploying international policy to restore Canada's image: 51% (high Atlantic, low Alberta)
Legalizing use of recreational cannabis: 48% (high Atlantic, low Quebec)
Renegotiating NAFTA: 48% (high Atlantic Ontario, low Alberta Sask/Man Quebec)
Creating carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gases: 45% (high Quebec, low Alberta)
Incuring deficits to support Canadian economy: 37% (high Ontario Atlantic, low Alberta)
Purchasing Trans Mountain pipeline: 34% (high BC, low Quebec)

On abolishing the monarchy: 39% for, 32% against, 25% don't know (the For option is boosted by the 65% in Quebec)

On how many immigrants Canada welcomes: 9% too few, 40% enough, 45% too many, 5% don't know