Canadian Election 2019

[lilTommy]

Candidate update:

The Tories are running several former MP's in Atlantic Canada: Scott Armstrong (Cumberland-Colchester),  Rob Moore (Fundy-Royal), and John Williamson (New Brunswick Southwest). All three have a decent chance at reclaiming their seats.

They have also have a possible star candidate; Chris d'Entremont in West Nova. d'Entremont is the Tory MLA for Argyle-Barrington and is a former cabinet minister. West Nova should still go Liberal but d'Entremont could make it interesting.

Interesting, so is the NDP:

Andrew Cash in Davenport (defeated in 2015, a good fighting chance, still lean-LPC, but that's a strong candidate for the NDP)

Svend Robinson in Burnaby North-Seymour (did not run again in 2004, a good chance as well in a three way race)

I expect some of the class of 2011, who were defeated in 2015 in Quebec might run again as well

[lilTommy]

Going by what took place last few election cycles it seems most polls are fairly useless until the last 2-3 weeks before the election.  Is that because Canadians are more fickle or the nature of a 3 party system  manes that votes are more likely to be tactically minded and more likely to shift how they vote up until right before the election.   

Both really.

Also remember, in some Provinces and Riding's it can be 4-way races if you include the BQ in Quebec and the Greens in BC and select individual riding's... 

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1101233079467704320

Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1101233079467704320

Well, Victoria just went even further into the likely Green category.

That's not necessarily true; Yes this has been a green target for a few elections now. But your assuming that the NDP in Victoria, a solidly NDP city both provincially and federally, will not be able to nominate a strong/star candidate. The Greens will also run a strong candidate though, this will be a tight race and interestingly it's not between the two arguably leading parties.

While the Greens did really well in 2012 by-election 34% vs the NDPs 37%, almost winning, come the general election it was 42% NDP vs 32% Green, that was 2015 during the NDP collapse. The LPC and CON vote is already pretty low at 11% each, it might come down to who can get their base out and who can poach more from the LPC.
I think it's too early, I do think Jagmeet being in the house will be a positive boost to the NDP and if Green voters are motivated by opposition to Trans Mountain both parties oppose this, and the NDP is still in the better position with 40+ MPs now. But the NDP have to be really focused here, and really prepared for an all out fight; the NDP policy is already more left and green then 2015 so that might dull the Green vote somewhat. The party may have to be wary of any anti-BCNDP vote, but I don't really see that the provincial gov't is still rather popular with the NDP/green voter (unlike in the 90s).

The NDP knew this was coming, it was known he was not running again earlier in the year but he was waiting till after the by-election to officially announce.

That all makes sense. I'm just going off of qc125's projections, which puts Victoria at solid Green: http://canada.qc125.com/districts/59041f.htm

The Greens jumped 20 points from 2011 to 2015, and I think it's reasonable to suggest that bodes well for them in 2019.

The last poll in BC, had the Greens at 13% up from 9% in 2015, and i'm certain that's concentrated in the Lower mainland and the Island. I will give that while the NDP saw a decrease the greens have probably been one of the biggest benefactors along with the Liberals. If that continues, say the NDP still only comes out after the election at 14-15% and they can not nominate a strong/star candidate Victoria is likely lost to the Greens. I still think it is premature to say the seat is Green especially since they lost it by 10% last time when the NDP tanked.
Even with the Green success in the Provincial election, they supplanted the BCL as the opposition to the NDP in the two Victoria seats, but topped off at 30%.

It all depends on if Jagmeet and the NDP can regain support, and BC will be one of those places they are going to focus on where they can gain.

[lilTommy]

https://twitter.com/PnPCBC/status/1101589652870492160

Ya, that stings... interesting here: some talk he could be eyeing a seat in Victoria? There are already two former NDP MPs in the BC government, Malcolmson (Nanaimo) and Jinny Simms (Surrey-Panorama). where would he run? Stikine is already an NDP riding but Skeena was lost in 2017, would be my bet.
Anyway, big loss for the NDP. But also, it's been on the walls he had already said "he had not made up his mind" if he was running again, likely following Murray's logic that neither one wanted to announce retirement while the Burnaby South by-election was ongoing.

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/1101590069998243842?fbclid=IwAR2Uf7ReEDG4d9CdIHqf6ZDKpPSdPjQXCYaKH8U0nEc6htgO_TvwCCQaofw

[lilTommy]

Some one term Liberal MPs have announced they are not running again in the last days:
TJ Harvey, Tobique-Mactaquac
John Oliver, Oakville
Celina Caesar-Chavannes, Whitby

All three, low hanging Conservative fruit.

Here is the numbers so far from what I've seen:

13 NDP MPs (30% of caucus) not running again, 15 (15% of caucus) Conservatives so far, and 17 (9% of caucus) Liberals and counting, seven of them first-termers. (that's a shock there)

[lilTommy]

New poll from Ipsos

40-31-20

Compared to the last Ipsos, 2/18

LPC - 34% - -3
CPC - 35% - +5
NDP - 17% - +3

[lilTommy]

Nanos is out today.  Interesting Tories and Liberals tied in Atlantic Canada.  While skeptical whether this is true or not, if true could be a huge problem for the Liberals.  The good news is also tied in BC and Ontario while Tories at 64% in Prairies so a lot of wasted votes there while Liberals still well in front in Quebec.

Conservatives 36%
Liberals 32.9%
NDP 17.9%
Greens 8.3
BQ 3.6
PPC 0.5%

PPC pretty much irrelevant, but I think most on the right are driven more by hatred of Trudeau than like of either Scheer or Bernier so not surprised they are swinging behind whom has the better chance of defeating Trudeau.

With those regional breaks I suspect that the Liberals would get a few more seats than the Tories even if the Tories edged them in the national popular vote by as much as 3%. That being said, it really doesn't matter. Even if the Tories edged the Liberals in seats, Trudeau as sitting PM would have the right to meet the house and present a Throne speech and I suspect that there would be zero chance that the NDP would vote to make Scheer PM, nor would they vote to precipitate a snap new election. IMHO the only way that Scheer becomes PM is if the CPC wins a majority.

Generally concor although if Tories + BQ are a majority not sure Liberals would want to rely on them mind you not sure BQ would want to support either so suspect it would be short lived.  If Tories win a plurality I don't think it would last the full four years but probably at least 2 maybe 3 years.

Makes sense, But as we've seen the CONs can get at least 4-5 years out of minority, 2006-2011. But if i'm not mistaken the CONs relied more on the LPC for support then either the BQ or NDP?
2006 & 2007 Budgets were CONs + BQ
2008, 2009, 2010 Budgets were CONs + LPC (2010, about 30 LPC MPs abstained)

[lilTommy]

In terms of raw support, the NDP seem to have been the main beneficiary of this scandal.

Well, a double-barrelled beneficiary--of the scandal, and of finally having their leader in Parliament.

Agreed. IF Jagmeet performs well/above expectations or even at expectations, the NDPs numbers should go up even more. If Jagmeet under performs the NDP could see their numbers drop even with the scandal.

The LPC is already showing its desperation with the "well it's us or Scheer" tactics to bolster their left-flank, which while very desperate (and completely false) is a known tactic to rally progressives to the anyone-but-conservative. It's a terrible tactic but can work, even though in 2015 the LPC benefited from this NOT working, as the third party in the House ended up winning even when the NDP was in the better position at that time.

[lilTommy]

Campaign Research has the QC breakdown:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y83dKTltgfgbSu_LIdcvvupVAqkYWuNP/view

LPC - 29%
CPC - 23%
NPD - 16%
BQ - 16%
Green - 12%
PPC - 3%

I think you can get a sense from the Provincial election when the CAQ won a majority on 38% and only 3 seats in Montreal-Laval.
Last federal the LPC did well and won all over the province, except the Beauce-Quebec City area. But their vote is inefficient normally as its heavily concentrated in MTl-Outaouais area. BUT If the CPC and BQ fight each other out in the Lanaudière-Laurentides (North Shore suburbs) and in the South Shore suburbs of the Montérégie--Centre-du-Quebec regions where the BQ currently holds seats and the CAQ's conservative agenda won over, I could see a) the LPC sneak in and pick up BQ seats even some NDP ones and/or b) some of the NDP MPs in these areas, 6 current MPs win with 30s%. and hang on. The BQ/CPC split could also help the Liberals in Quebec City.

But wild card is both the Green vote, does it stay this high? and where is that 12% coming from? and will the NPD be able to rally back in Quebec to around/above 20% now that they are in a better position with an elected leader and Boulerice as Deputy leader?

[lilTommy]

Though as we see above, they're doing 7% in one poll and 16% in another--are they sinking away, or are they stabilizing or even modestly recovering, one wonders..

16% is national while 7% is Quebec only.  In BC they have a strong base, while Ontario they are usually in the 15-20% range and some polls show a slight uptick there.  Also have a somewhat weakening base in Sask/Manitoba too.  Prior to 2011, NDP support in Quebec was always well below what they had nationally so could be just a reversion to normal.

The 16% was the Quebec region polling numbers from Campaign research. I think what we see is volatility and people parking votes.
But I can't disagree with your synopsis of the NDP vote. I think the NDP has good chances of gaining in BC; probably some room for gains in ON as well but very concentrated in Toronto and possibly their old bases (Hamilton, N.ON and Windsor) even in 2011 I think the NDP was only at 25% or so, high mark was provincially at 34%, but that is unrealistic here... 15-20% is about right. But with the CONs up, mostly coming from the LPC, the party does have a shot if they target key ridings where they were second to the LPC.
The prairies their is a base but it's weak now due to multiple reason, some internal, but I don't see any of the MPs in danger of losing their seats... Regina-Lewvan could be a gain or a less (depends on what Weir does... the cause of most of the NDPs problems here)
Atlantic Canada, ugh I think the party has a shot a Halifax... and maybe St. John's East, other then that this is still a LPC/CONs playground.
Quebec has some strong individual MPs, survivors of 2015, the party is really just trying to save them and I think they probably can save about 10-12 based on local personal popularity, and local vote, see the QS ridings and you can see a correlation to some degree (Sherbrooke, Abitibi, MTL)

You can see the focus on addressing the above numbers by the shuffle in the caucus leadership. Deputy Leaders are from SASK (Benson) and QC (Boulerice), House leader BC (Julian) Deputy House Leader from QC (Trudel). The high profile Justice is moved to ON (Ramsey) while Deputy Justice BC (Murray) is "demoted" somewhat.

[lilTommy]

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, some have reported that Steven Guilbeault will be the Liberal candidate. He's a well known environmentalist. He could attract the young progressive of the riding who has environmental concerns, the voter who would not vote for the Liberal party but by the candidate and his star power (unless it is only seen as green washing for the party).

Seems like there will be competition for the environment issue. The Bloc wants it to be one of their main issues, NDP also, there is always the Green party and the Liberals maybe with Guilbeault will want to show it's a concern for them.

Those with environmental concerns, will not vote Liberal, they are not the party of environmentalism based on their term in gov't. Guilberault will spend all of his time defending the LPC track record; he will be attacked by the NPD, Greens on their lack of environmentalism. BUT I see the LPC point was to go after NPD/BQ/Greens votes and as you mentioned I expect to see "Green-washing". The only LPC talk track is Carbon Pricing, everything else is Harper legacy policy.

The NPD announced that Nima Machouf; Epidemiologist, former Project Montreal municipal candidate in 2009 and wife of former Quebec Solidare MNA/co-Leader Amir Khadir will be running for the nomination.

[lilTommy]

Back to the riding in question... it's Laurier-Sainte Marie. The Tories got 4% there last time. I don't think ABC strategic voting will be a problem for the NDP there.

Agreed, this is likely to a 3 way race, 4 way if the Green vote actually holds (I am still skeptical that the greens will poll that high, as they did in Outremont by-election but hey, stranger things)
NPD-BQ-LPC fight here. Both the LPC and NPD look to have strong candidates in place, so we will need to see who the BQ nominates; but this area is very left wing so I give the advantage to the NPD here.

I think Hochelaga might be the one to watch; NPD MP is not running again as well, in 2015 the race was much closer then Laurier--Sainte-Marie, 3 way again with the LPC-NPD-BQ only 3% or so separated all three of them! I don't think any of the nominated candidates are personal "star" candidates that would add a few point to personal popularity. Desperately one the NPD needs to hold.

[lilTommy]

Nanos Weekly Tracking numbers: Breakdowns by region, age, sex

https://goo.gl/wdGdui


3/15
LPC - 32.6%
CPC - 35.5%
NDP - 19.8%
Green - 7.7%

[lilTommy]

Ipsos Poll:

CPC - 40%
LPC - 30%
NDP - 21%

https://globalnews.ca/news/5103763/trudeau-approval-rating-snc-lavalin-budget/?fbclid=IwAR1Njh2a4HQjGPFsVk4NnN69fkDmKg1X1Z_iO6n-AyaUUafyYSfhT68hTyo

[lilTommy]

Even with The Liberals and NDP cracking over 50%, does FPTP ensure that the Conservatives win even with 35%.

National level figures are hard say for sure "yes", generally yes. But its the provincial level results that will dictate this; there can be huge differences from Province to province.

The LPC won a large majority with 39% but heavily from Ontario, Quebec, BC and Atlantic.
The CPC can also win a majority with 39%... but in 2008 at 37% the CPC won a minority. At 35% the CPC would likely win a minority. BUT again depending on where the NDP and LPC votes/seats came from.

[lilTommy]

Angus Reed

Consv: 37%
Lib: 28%
NDP: 17%
Green 8%
BQ: 5%
PPC: 4%



http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.26-federal-release.pdf

Poll consists of a lot of sub regional break downs. (ie Rural Sask)

Conservatives leading outside of Montreal (in a 4-way race)

Some interesting sub polling right

NDP leads the city of Vancouver, tight three way race
-NDP - 29%, LPC 27%, CPC 23%

Metro Van the CPC is taking the lead; could be wasted votes south of the Fraser?
- CPC 37%, LPC 28%, NDP 22%

GTA is very tight, LPC will lose seats but still lead with a weak NDP, might not be as many losses as though?
-LPC 39%, CPC 36%

Montreal Split is interesting, I can't see any losses for the LPC, but the NDP is still holding their own.
-LPC 37%, NDP 20%, BQ 19%, CPC 15%

Central;/Edmonton is more competitive then I would have thought?
CPC - 40%, LPC 30%, NDP 19%

Interesting SASK break down, the CPC is polling both 42% in Regina and Saskatoon, but big differences between the LPC and NDP.
In Regina we have the LPC 23%, NDP 16% (Goodale effect?)
In Saskatoon we have NDP 39%, LPC 12%

In Toronto, strong LPC numbers hard to see any real losses, maybe one or two to each the CPC and NCP? NDP would be concentrated in Central, CPC would be in the old suburbs, central North York/Midtown
-LPC 45%, NPD 23%, CPC 21%

[lilTommy]

Interesting on JWR, provincial politics could be the way to make a real difference, and still be involved with party politics.

Also, Philpott might consider taking a look at Ontario Liberals, they are having a leadership race.

Jenny Kwan NDP MP, also made similar comments to May, the NDP would be willing to listen to them if they wanted to talk. I highly doubt it though, JWR maybe but probably not. a) JWR would have to sit as an indie, the NDP do not take-in floor crosser's, she could then seek the NDP nomination (this is what Maria Mourani did before the 2015). b) she would have to defend voting against NDP bills like Postal Banking and Housing as a right, which is NDP policy so.

[lilTommy]

And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.

In 2011 Hedy Fry, "almost" lost with the NDP surge, winning 31% to 26% (tied with CONs) and 15% for the Greens. I think that was the closest in recent years. 2015 Fry under a LPC surge won 56% to the NDP 20%. I agree had the NDP ran a stronger candidate in 2011 they "could" have won here, it would have been close though.

I Think the NDP could win Vancouver Centre but only under a perfect storm (even without Fry) for the NDP, they need the CONs or the Greens to be stronger, in particular in Yaletown and Coal Harbour... like 2011, then poll very high everywhere else. The southern boundary in 2015 shifted north from West 16th to West 6th, but based on 2011 that hurt all parties as all parties won polls in this strip.   
If you look at the Provincial election, VanCentre is basically VanWest End and VanFalse Creek, the NDP would have won using the votes from 2017. What I take from this is that the NDP has to become the vehicle for left-progressive voters and Fry has too strong of a name to do that right now.
If the polling actually turns out like 33/25/25 The NDP has a shot at VanCentre but It's still a long shot, but it is the next most winnable riding in Vancouver

[lilTommy]

Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again

Yes, you're correct (26% vs VanCentre at 20% from 2015) Tanks!
BUT I think it depends on what JWR does too to see where the MDP focus's...

[lilTommy]

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

[lilTommy]

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

I mean, it wouldn't be impossible to see a local boom in PEI, but I highly doubt your average Canadian will even be aware that PEI has had an election, let alone change their vote.

Yup. It's important to remember that PEI is teeny tiny, only about 150k people. Non political junkies wouldn't notice.

The Greens have seemed to turn their attention to Atlantic Canada, I could see if the Greens win PEI that could translate into a surge in the 4 riding's there, enough to win a couple? perhaps, IF there is a big swing from LPC->GRN since the Liberals own the island federally.
Look at the candidates in the Halifax ares, the Greens are going to heavily focus here:
- Jo-Ann Roberts (who was a strong second in Victoria) is running in Halifax
- Lil MacPherson (former mayoral candidate) running in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
- Richard Zurawski (HRM Councillor) running in Halifax West

Halifax in particular will be a three-way fight between the progressives; I'd say Dartmouth-Cole Harbour is now a LPC/GRN contest and Halifax West in another three-way race between LPC/CONs/GRN

Victoria is safer for the NDP without a star green candidate, but I expect the Greens to still come in second there

Perhaps, but in the Atlantics provincial Liberal voters are often Conservatives (Egmont area ridings on PEI) and vice versa (Cape Breton ridings in NS.) In Vancouver Island, climate change is also a far bigger issue than in the rest of Canada. Indigenous issues seem to matter here too. Victoria has also lost its attractive NDP candidate, but now has a Green indigenous candidate. I also think the Grits will sweep Halifax.

If you're interested in predictions, try the Election Prediction Project website.

The NDP is likely to nominate a young and well known city Councillor, so while Murray will be a lose I think Laurel Collins is a very strong and much more well known candidate then the Greens this time. But this is still a two-way race with the NDP-Greens. The NDP has also nominated a grand chief to run in Nanaimo-Ladysmith; while I agree the Greens will due well and improve over 2015, I don't see them yet winning any more ridings on the Island given the NDPs move to the left vs the 2015 election. I see the LPC losing votes to both the Greens and NDP which should shore up the NDPs current MPs

[lilTommy]

Malcolm Allen is going to try to win back his Niagara Centre seat for the NDP. He was MP from 2008 to 2015 and lost narrowly last time to a no-name Liberal who barely campaigned. In the current environment Allen should have a good chance to win...especially since that riding voted deep orange in the provincial election

Vance Badawey isn't *quite* no-name; he served as mayor of Port Colborne for the better part of two decades.

And while the riding has a deep orange provincial history thanks mainly to the legacy of Mel Swart/ Peter Kormos/Cindy Forster, the NDP won by a less-than-deep-orange 6.7% over the PCs last time around--yes, they still won; but this is very much blue-collar Obama-Trump country so I wouldn't rule out the federal Cons, either.  (Though conversely, the Cons' Rob Nicholson is retiring in Niagara Falls next door, which might well put that seat into play going the *other* direction.)

I think the NDP was going to try and target this riding regardless of who the candidate was. With the recent political scene I think Welland is a Con-NDP fight, like Oshawa. Having Malcolm Allen run again is very good for the NDP though, so probably a toss-up between the NDP-CONs, I'd now throw in Niagara Falls as well, depending on the candidates but Provincially the NDP has strengthened its hold there. I think much of that is the MPP himself though.

[lilTommy]

What factors make a riding competitive between just the Tories and the NDP, as opposed to the Liberals? Is there some demographic element, or is it historic?

Partly historic, but there are ridings like Sarnia-Lambton and Essex which are no good for the Liberals, but the Tories or NDP only beat the other by a few points. It's a mix of urban and rural but also has a lot of manufacturing . In recent years the Liberals have done poorly in these areas. Even in 2014 the OLP had only one seat in SW Ontario, and that was in London. These areas are drifting more to the Tories.

Some are more historic, like Oshawa (formerly held by Ed Broadbent), Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Saskatoon West (Saskatchewan has gone back to hating Liberals, unless their name is Ralph), and Elmwood-Transcona (formerly held by Bill Blaikie), where the NDP have ancestral vote and do well in provincial elections. But in many of these, the Liberals did well there last time, and having a historical link isn't enough (ask Rebecca Blaikie.)

In Ontario it's as mentioned here historic, but also demographic. They are typically smaller urban cities (100K or under populations) in SW Ontario and are typically or historically manufacturing or industrial based, which has a long history of unionization. The ridings in general are those urban-rural ones, Sarnia-Lambton, Chathan-Kent, Brantford-Brant, Essex (in fact the NDP gained this is 2015). These are regional centres so they tend to be where the larger hospitals/schools are, which again is heavily unionized.
These areas you see populism is more prominent, both the progressive populism and reactionary/conservative populism. pocket book policies play well here, which has not been where the Liberals campaign from, but the CONs do and the NDP does sometimes (or partially). Liberal support tends to come from wealthier people, but this group seems to swing between the CONs and LPC. 

[lilTommy]

In the Toronto riding of Humber River-Black Creek, I am hearing that veteran city councillor Maria Augimeri and former TDSB trustee and 2018 council candidate Tiffany Ford are interested in the NDP nomination. 

WOW, stellar candidates the both of them! I'd be happy if either were to run! Augimeri's ward unfortunately was not in Humber River-Black Creek (was the Downsview portion of York Centre).