Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189231 times)
Jeppe
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« Reply #275 on: April 02, 2019, 05:19:43 PM »

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.
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UWS
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« Reply #276 on: April 02, 2019, 06:20:36 PM »

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Package-2019-03-29.pdf

LPC : 34,6 %
CPC : 35,1 %
NDP : 16,1 %
BQ : 4,4 %
GPC : 8,1 %
PPC : 0,5 %

This election is still a toss-up and 6 months is an eternity in politics. It has been recently reported thatCanada is warming twice faster as the rest of the world and yet Andrew Scheer has still not yet unveiled his damn environmental plan six months after promising to do so.
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the506
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« Reply #277 on: April 03, 2019, 09:25:12 PM »

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

Can't imagine the Tories doing that. NDP, probably not either. Greens would do it in a heartbeat.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #278 on: April 03, 2019, 10:30:34 PM »

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

I think she does, & I think she does it as an independent, though it'll be a tough win for her without a party. The riding would have a lame duck backbencher that couldn't do anything for them; might've been different with electoral reform but not with FPTP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #279 on: April 03, 2019, 11:15:10 PM »

In terms of crossing floor and winning.  Markham-Stouffville is a very marginal riding and would probably go Conservative if an election were called today so Philpott could potentially win if she crossed the floor to the Conservatives, but she always struck me as being on the left of the party so don't think she would be a good fit.  NDP is very weak there so would have no chance.  JWR represents an urban riding and I find in urban areas candidate matters less than in rural areas.  If she runs as an independent I suspect she will draw votes from all parties but not enough to win.  Vancouver-Granville is a pretty solid Liberal and only goes Tory or NDP if either is heading for a majority nationally.  North side is a Liberal/NDP battleground while south side is a Tory/Liberal so Liberals win by being strong throughout it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #280 on: April 04, 2019, 07:35:48 AM »



Special Grit caucus in 3 hours to expel JWR and Philpott.

Aaaannnd, she's gone.

In the face of these scandals coming out, does Trudeau survive & win reelection as PM ?

Canada is notorious for having unexpected swings but...I do not expect this to end well for the Liberals, especially now that JWR has been expelled from caucus.
Personally it seems like JWR was trying to extort to stay in power, seeing the texts that she sent out that where just released. 

Perhaps in isolation, but given the broader range of evidence, and the Prime Minister not letting JWR discuss the period the texts cover, it seems like a small piece of pro-Liberal evidence in a sea of anti-Liberal evidence and coverage.

Does JWR run again? If so, under whose banner?

To be honest, I could even see the 3 opposition parties declining to field a candidate against JWR if she ran as an independent.

Can't imagine the Tories doing that. NDP, probably not either. Greens would do it in a heartbeat.

Agreed. Her seat is just a little too winnable for the Tories and NDP. I could kind of see it if she represented a seat where one or both of them had no hope, but her seat is definitely in play if the Liberals falter... especially if a strong independent candidate is in the mix.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #281 on: April 04, 2019, 01:00:29 PM »

My bet is if she wants to continue in elective politics, she joins Horgan and he gives her an advisory post till he can open a Vancouver seat next provincial election.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #282 on: April 04, 2019, 02:41:41 PM »

My bet is if she wants to continue in elective politics, she joins Horgan and he gives her an advisory post till he can open a Vancouver seat next provincial election.

Yeah, if I were JWR, I'd just jump into provincial politics instead. She'd have a bright future there.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #283 on: April 04, 2019, 03:13:22 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2019, 03:21:43 PM by lilTommy »

Interesting on JWR, provincial politics could be the way to make a real difference, and still be involved with party politics.

Also, Philpott might consider taking a look at Ontario Liberals, they are having a leadership race.

Jenny Kwan NDP MP, also made similar comments to May, the NDP would be willing to listen to them if they wanted to talk. I highly doubt it though, JWR maybe but probably not. a) JWR would have to sit as an indie, the NDP do not take-in floor crosser's, she could then seek the NDP nomination (this is what Maria Mourani did before the 2015). b) she would have to defend voting against NDP bills like Postal Banking and Housing as a right, which is NDP policy so.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #284 on: April 05, 2019, 12:04:33 PM »

In completely different BC news, PPC is imploding due to far-right infiltration and accusations of racism and xenophobia from founding members.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #285 on: April 05, 2019, 01:15:16 PM »


No surprise, but good news for the Tories.  Fewer splits also PPC helps take all the nut cases, still party needs to be careful since if they don't vet their candidates carefully could sink them.  UCP is making the race in Alberta more competitive than expected for that reason.
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DL
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« Reply #286 on: April 07, 2019, 10:05:52 AM »

This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #287 on: April 07, 2019, 12:17:38 PM »

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.
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DL
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« Reply #288 on: April 07, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #289 on: April 07, 2019, 03:23:05 PM »

This poll also says that across the City of Vancouver federal Liberal support has collapsed to 25%, tied with the CPC while the NDP leads with 33% thestar.com/vancouver/2019

Another poll out yesterday shows a similar pattern in Winnipeg- big Liberal drop from 2015 and NDP gaining ground

That ought to put Vancouver Granville and Vancouver South in play.

There’s no way Hedy Fry loses my riding.

Probably not though if she retired that seat would be totally up for grabs. Sometimes people do stay past the best before date. Jim Bradly was supposed to be unbeatable for the Ontario Liberals after having been an MPP since 1977 and then last June he finally lost. I get the sense that Hedy Fry has a certain iconic image but that she has just been calling it in lately and isn’t doing much of anything and thinks she can coast with a “job for life”

Fry also had the advantage of winning a seat that has since become much more favourable to the Liberals thanks to demographic changes and realignment. Bradley was more akin to those dinosaur Blue Dogs who got swept away in 2010.
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DL
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« Reply #290 on: April 07, 2019, 04:06:29 PM »

Vancouver Centre is the Vancouver equivalent of downtown Toronto seats that will go Liberal or NDP depending on  who has momentum...at one time the Tories were competitive there - it was Kim Campbell's riding after all - but now its purely a Liberal/NDP contest. If Hedy Fry retired it would quickly be a Liberal NDP tossup.
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adma
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« Reply #291 on: April 07, 2019, 05:14:47 PM »

And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #292 on: April 08, 2019, 09:53:30 AM »

And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #293 on: April 08, 2019, 12:30:13 PM »

A riding poll has been commissioned for a hypothetical Jody Wilson-Raybould independent run in Vancouver-Granville

JWR: 33%
Liberal:24%
NDP: 21%
Conservative: 15%
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #294 on: April 08, 2019, 01:01:23 PM »

I see no problem with her running as an independent. Even if she loses, she could still join the BCNDP, and she'd be welcomed with open arms.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #295 on: April 08, 2019, 01:05:28 PM »

And other than the freakishly high 2015 result, Hedy Fry's really been more of an opposition-split safe-middle-option beneficiary over the years--ReformAllianceConservative being too far right for outright victory in this kind of seat, yet the condo-ization of False Creek plus "NDP can't win" conventional wisdom impairing things at the other end, plus a left-split circumstance through the Greens (particularly w/Adriane Carr in 2008/11).  And like Toronto Centre, it's the kind of seat that could have gone NDP in 2011 had the party nominated better than they did.

For the NDP, it's federally winnable in the same way that Spadina-Fort York was provincially winnable in 2018.  (That is, if Jagmeet gets some Andrea-like lift in the sails.)

As someone who lives in Hedy Fry's riding, it is a fairly safe Liberal one.  The PCs used to win but that was back when they were Red Tories and you didn't have the urban/rural divide you did today.  Also when Kim Campbell was MP, the riding extended all the way to UBC whereas now its largely the downtown peninsula and False Creek so much smaller than it was then. 

Reason it favours Liberals is you have well to do areas like False Creek, Yaletown, and Coal Harbour which will never go NDP, while you have the West End which with it being mostly apartment rentals and large LGBT population would never go CPC, while Liberals win by being competitive everywhere.  It is somewhat like Toronto Centre, but also has some similarities to Cities of London and Westminster in UK, which still votes Conservative, albeit not by as big a margins as it used to.  In a lot of ways it is more akin to Toronto Centre before last redistribution when it still included Rosedale as opposed to it under its current boundaries.  In UK, it would be like combining Cities of London & Westminster with Poplar & Limehouse.  Also never mind Cities of London & Westminster would probably be Liberal in Canadian context as wealthy so goes Tory, but it also voted 75% remain so probably wary of right wing populists if there is a centrist alternative.

In 2011 Hedy Fry, "almost" lost with the NDP surge, winning 31% to 26% (tied with CONs) and 15% for the Greens. I think that was the closest in recent years. 2015 Fry under a LPC surge won 56% to the NDP 20%. I agree had the NDP ran a stronger candidate in 2011 they "could" have won here, it would have been close though.

I Think the NDP could win Vancouver Centre but only under a perfect storm (even without Fry) for the NDP, they need the CONs or the Greens to be stronger, in particular in Yaletown and Coal Harbour... like 2011, then poll very high everywhere else. The southern boundary in 2015 shifted north from West 16th to West 6th, but based on 2011 that hurt all parties as all parties won polls in this strip.   
If you look at the Provincial election, VanCentre is basically VanWest End and VanFalse Creek, the NDP would have won using the votes from 2017. What I take from this is that the NDP has to become the vehicle for left-progressive voters and Fry has too strong of a name to do that right now.
If the polling actually turns out like 33/25/25 The NDP has a shot at VanCentre but It's still a long shot, but it is the next most winnable riding in Vancouver
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DL
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« Reply #296 on: April 08, 2019, 10:37:24 PM »

Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again
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lilTommy
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« Reply #297 on: April 09, 2019, 06:10:10 AM »

Actually the next most winnable seat for the NDP in Vancouver would be Vancouver Granville if JWR didn’t run again

Yes, you're correct (26% vs VanCentre at 20% from 2015) Tanks!
BUT I think it depends on what JWR does too to see where the MDP focus's...
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New Jersey Moderate
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« Reply #298 on: April 09, 2019, 07:02:31 PM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.
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adma
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« Reply #299 on: April 09, 2019, 08:53:07 PM »

What's the possibility of a Green surge if they win PEI in two weeks? In my opinion I think with the inept leadership of the NDP they could be tied or within 1-2% of each other if that occurs.

To repeat: post-byelection, it's no longer so clear that Jagmeet's leadership is "inept".  (Though to continue to frame it as such certainly serves the pro-Liberal media narrative.)
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