Canadian Election 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian Election 2019  (Read 189209 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1450 on: October 21, 2019, 01:59:14 PM »

Will there be turnout updates throughout the day at the national or provincial level?

No, I don't believe so.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1451 on: October 21, 2019, 02:05:36 PM »

The Liberal Party of Canada occupies a very unique space. It is similar to the Liberal Democrats in Japan or the PRI in Mexico in terms of its image as a party of power and as a party without a well-defined ideology. In practice, even if it is a shape-shifting entity, it usually governs more like a center-right party than anything else and, when it does not, it's usually due to the influence or threat of the NDP. During electoral campaigns, it always positions itself as a center-left party but, predictably, it always governs more like a center-right party.

I'd argue that the Canadian electorate basically allows it to occupy this space because Canada is such a disparate country. The Western wackos who have tended to dominate the Conservative Party since the functional demise of the Progressive Conservatives lack credibility with Canadians outside of the Prairies, oilfields - it's too adversarial and too clearly about Western interests vs. everyone else when there isn't a concerted effort to broaden the base.

Maybe I'm off-base here but I tend to be fascinated by the inability of the NDP to gain traction as a major second party at the national level when it has done so with ease in many provinces. Contrasting the achievements of NDP governments with Liberal governments always serves as a reminder of the gigantic gulf that exists between the two parties and I tend to be baffled by the existence of left-leaners who almost always vote for Liberals. I guess the specter of the wackos and nutjobs coming to power is enough of an inducement? Wynne and McGuinty were a disgrace but when compared with Ford or Harris, I can grasp why the Liberals are able to justify themselves.

There was a really good discussion of this a few years ago in one of the Canada General Discussion threads.

The conclusion was that it was a bunch of smaller factors that came together to prevent a labour left from dominating the Canadian centre left like it did in much of the west. Liberal competence, NDP incompetence, Anglo Canada being more right wing than the stereotype, and the NDP's inability to break through in Quebec until 2011 all played a role in stopping them from becoming a major party.
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mgop
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« Reply #1452 on: October 21, 2019, 02:05:59 PM »

Trudeau will win, he is the most popular leader in the world right now.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1453 on: October 21, 2019, 02:19:36 PM »

Wait....if I am reading this right, center right and right-wing parties in canada will barely combine for 1/3 of the vote? That is embarrassing.
It's Canada not Louisana

I get that, but the U.K., Germany, etc are also not Louisiana and center right parties combine for way more there than Canada.

Best way to understand Canada is that ~1/3 of the seats are located in a region comparable to NY/IL, and a majority of the national seats are  in sub/urban areas. That's not a recipe for a strong conservative party, which is why they often have to win 'red-tories' to remain relevant.

To add to what Oryxslayer said, there exists a substantial bloc of voters in Quebec who in other contexts would be open to voting for rightist parties, but usually don't due to the toxicity of the Tory brand in Quebec going back to WW1. These voters have historically backed Social Credit, the Bloc Quebecois, and even the NDP and Liberals at times, rather than the Conservatives. The Australian, British, German etc right doesn't have to deal with this.

It's hard to win elections consistently when such a large chunk of demographically favourable voters aren't open to voting for you.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1454 on: October 21, 2019, 02:20:14 PM »

Trudeau will win, he is the most popular leader in the world right now.

Well, not in Canada where people are actually voting. Not to say he won't win the most seats.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1455 on: October 21, 2019, 02:27:44 PM »

Weather is beautiful right now in my neck of the woods. 17 degrees and sunny. No excuses to not vote!
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1456 on: October 21, 2019, 02:29:09 PM »

The NDP wave seems to have dropped back a little; additionally, every incumbent government from 1997 to 2011 has done noticeably better than the last polls have indicated (the Tories also did so in 2015, but since the Liberals did too it was pretty much a wash).

I expect figures round about this:

145 Grits
125 Tories
  34 Bloquistes
  30 New Democrats
    2 Greens
    2 Others

Given how fortunate the Liberals have been over the last ninety years in missing the big recessions, I wonder if that luck will elude them in the next couple years given what's forecast to happen. (The only other time they were in office for a big downturn was Pierre Trudeau in the early 1980s - they missed all the rest since the Depression.)

Indeed, if one were to be ultra-cynical one might even suppose that the Liberal & Tory campaigns were both so pathetic this time because neither wants to be in government when the big slump hits. Obviously that's not the reason, but it still gives one cause to think.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1457 on: October 21, 2019, 02:42:03 PM »

The NDP wave seems to have dropped back a little; additionally, every incumbent government from 1997 to 2011 has done noticeably better than the last polls have indicated (the Tories also did so in 2015, but since the Liberals did too it was pretty much a wash).

I expect figures round about this:

145 Grits
125 Tories
  34 Bloquistes
  30 New Democrats
    2 Greens
    2 Others

Given how fortunate the Liberals have been over the last ninety years in missing the big recessions, I wonder if that luck will elude them in the next couple years given what's forecast to happen. (The only other time they were in office for a big downturn was Pierre Trudeau in the early 1980s - they missed all the rest since the Depression.)

Indeed, if one were to be ultra-cynical one might even suppose that the Liberal & Tory campaigns were both so pathetic this time because neither wants to be in government when the big slump hits. Obviously that's not the reason, but it still gives one cause to think.

Do you have links for 1997 and 2000 polls? Can't seem to find any good poll lists for those elections.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1458 on: October 21, 2019, 02:51:56 PM »

The NDP wave seems to have dropped back a little; additionally, every incumbent government from 1997 to 2011 has done noticeably better than the last polls have indicated (the Tories also did so in 2015, but since the Liberals did too it was pretty much a wash).

I expect figures round about this:

145 Grits
125 Tories
  34 Bloquistes
  30 New Democrats
    2 Greens
    2 Others

Given how fortunate the Liberals have been over the last ninety years in missing the big recessions, I wonder if that luck will elude them in the next couple years given what's forecast to happen. (The only other time they were in office for a big downturn was Pierre Trudeau in the early 1980s - they missed all the rest since the Depression.)

Indeed, if one were to be ultra-cynical one might even suppose that the Liberal & Tory campaigns were both so pathetic this time because neither wants to be in government when the big slump hits. Obviously that's not the reason, but it still gives one cause to think.

Do you have links for 1997 and 2000 polls? Can't seem to find any good poll lists for those elections.

Not at hand, but in 1997 a Liberal minority was generally expected (they just kept their majority) & in 2000 a loss of their majority was thought possible (instead they increased it).

From 1997 to 2011 the pattern was always for the incumbent government to start from a certain position, then slide during the campaign, and finally end up doing a little better than forecast: 1997 & 2000 saw the Liberals start polling in the high 40s, drop significantly, then tick up a little at the last. 2004 saw the Liberals expected to keep their majority & end up with a decent minority (instead of a close result or defeat). 2006 initially saw a repeat of 2004 expected, then a big Tory lead, then finished up with a modest Tory win. 2008 saw the Tories at near-majority territory, then they slipped a bit (making a close result expected), but ended up with an improved result over 2006 anyway. 2011 saw a big majority forecast, then their numbers dipped back to minority before ticking up just into a majority at the end again. (I've got graphs for 2006 to 2015; unfortunately the one I made during the '04 campaign I no longer have.)
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DL
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« Reply #1459 on: October 21, 2019, 02:58:54 PM »

I remember the 1997 and 2000 elections very well. There was never much doubt in either of those elections that the Liberals would win again and get majorities again. If there was any surprise at all in 1997 it was that the Liberals came as close as they did (within 5 seats) to losing their majority - largely due to the Liberals getting thrashed in Atlantic canada due to their unpopular reforms to Unemployment Insurance.

In 2000, there was some speculation at the start of the campaign that the Canadian Alliance would be a threat but then Stockwell day prooved to be a flop and by election day everyone knew it was going to be a Liberal landlside
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Mike88
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« Reply #1460 on: October 21, 2019, 03:02:13 PM »

Any reports on how turnout is going?. The first polls close at around 7 pm there, midnight in London/Lisbon, right?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1461 on: October 21, 2019, 03:05:23 PM »

I'm saying Liberal minority, I think polls are somewhat overestimating liberals.


But I don't like any of the party leaders soooooo

I think a lot of people want both Trudeau and Scheer to get punished today, but the window of outcomes where that occurs is rather narrow, unless the NDP/BQ/others surge.
I'm playing the long game-waiting for a competent NDP leader.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #1462 on: October 21, 2019, 03:06:00 PM »

I just said screw it and voted for PPC.
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Gary J
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« Reply #1463 on: October 21, 2019, 03:12:06 PM »

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.
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cp
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« Reply #1464 on: October 21, 2019, 03:24:14 PM »

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.

... umm, sure? Seems as good/random an explanation as any.

For my part, I think the reasons cited so far are too Canada-centric. Québec's relationship with the federal parties underwent a transformation after the Quiet Revolution in the 60s, just like every other aspect of Québec at the time. C/conservative parties had a hard time incorporating the decolonialist rhetoric of that era, which has inflected politics there ever since. The simultaneous embrace (and endurance) of social democratic politics made it even harder for Anglo conservative parties to succeed.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1465 on: October 21, 2019, 03:26:04 PM »

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.

I would point the election of Laurier as Liberal leader as when Conservatie weakness began in Quebec. Conservative results were still decent between 1885 and that.
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Don Vito Corleone
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« Reply #1466 on: October 21, 2019, 03:43:54 PM »

If the Tories win Avalon, is that a sign of a very good night for them? I had been working on the assumption that it was.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1467 on: October 21, 2019, 03:50:15 PM »

Does not Conservative weakness in Quebec go back to the execution of Louis Riel in 1885? Since then only occasional elections produced a Conservative majority in federal elections in Quebec.

I would point the election of Laurier as Liberal leader as when Conservatie weakness began in Quebec. Conservative results were still decent between 1885 and that.

The 1887 election was the first to take place after Riel's execution (1885) & Laurier's leadership of the Liberals (1887), and it saw Quebec go from a strong Tory province to a fairly even one. Laurier would go on to win heavily in Quebec in the 1890s & 1900s, but the province was still a competitive one - 1911 saw a fairly close result there.

What killed the Tories in Quebec was the First World War; the Liberals took 62 of 65 ridings in 1917 (their best-yet result there), and all 65 in 1921 (still their best result there). They had a good showing in 1958, when the campaign essentially amounted to 'We're going to win, so you might as well hop on,' but until 1984 (Trudeau's retirement & Mulroney's leadership of the Tories) it was almost always a Tory wasteland, which is why they served in government so little during that time. Indeed, if you look at results in the rest of Canada, they usually went Tory - had it not been for big leads in Quebec, the Liberals would never have been in government in the 1920s, the 1970s, the 1980s or most of the 1960s (1968 excepted).

(I often like to say that Quebec hasn't yet forgiven the Tories for the First World War, while the Maritimes haven't forgiven them for Confederation!)
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1468 on: October 21, 2019, 03:54:03 PM »

If the Tories win Avalon, is that a sign of a very good night for them? I had been working on the assumption that it was.

I think so; that's an area where they've often done well, but with the poor results in Newfoundland over the last decade (and Atlantic Canada generally four years ago), a Tory win there tonight is unlikely unless they do very well overall.

Speaking to Atlantic Canada generally, I'd say that fewer than eight Tories elected there indicates a definite national Liberal lead, while more than ten indicates a Tory lead overall. (Before lots of people jump on me, please note that I'm only saying those figures apply to tonight - obviously they've won or lost government with more or fewer Atlantic MPs than the numbers I'm saying!)
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1469 on: October 21, 2019, 04:02:30 PM »

  Predict it has Trudeau with 82% chance of being reelected PM.  I got in earlier at 60% and 70%. The 60% bet was a few weeks ago.  He was around 70% just a day or so go.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1470 on: October 21, 2019, 04:30:37 PM »

The best comparison for the Canadian federal Liberals is the UK Conservative party. They are the party of old money and the well connected, reluctantly embracing change and more concerned with power than policy at the end of the day. Unlike the UK Tories, however, the Liberals have never found common cause with any truly radical right wing politics (nor left wing, really, notwithstanding the Liberals' right-leaning opponents tiresome insistence to the contrary).

Neither party would welcome the comparison, but it is accurate.

In this analogy, would Liberal historic dominance amongst voters from visible minorities be analogous to the surprising success Conservatives had with working class voters in the decades after 1867?

For that matter, why have the Liberals been so good at keeping the support of those voters (with the partial exception of the Chinese)? In principle you would expect them to be a much stronger demographic for the NDP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1471 on: October 21, 2019, 04:47:41 PM »

In this analogy, would Liberal historic dominance amongst voters from visible minorities be analogous to the surprising success Conservatives had with working class voters in the decades after 1867?

Yes, that's an excellent parallel actually.

Quote
For that matter, why have the Liberals been so good at keeping the support of those voters (with the partial exception of the Chinese)? In principle you would expect them to be a much stronger demographic for the NDP.

A lot of this is related to Canada's lack of a real municipal socialist tradition: local government has tended to be 'non-partisan' and dominated by business interests, and reformist challenges to the conservative local government establishment have usually been decoupled from organised labour. So the key entry point for working class minorities to enter Left politics directly does not exist. Minority politics, instead, tends to be driven to an even greater degree than in most Western countries by community leaders, and who is better at playing the ensuing game of arbitrage than the Liberals?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1472 on: October 21, 2019, 04:54:17 PM »

In this analogy, would Liberal historic dominance amongst voters from visible minorities be analogous to the surprising success Conservatives had with working class voters in the decades after 1867?

Yes, that's an excellent parallel actually.

Quote
For that matter, why have the Liberals been so good at keeping the support of those voters (with the partial exception of the Chinese)? In principle you would expect them to be a much stronger demographic for the NDP.

A lot of this is related to Canada's lack of a real municipal socialist tradition: local government has tended to be 'non-partisan' and dominated by business interests, and reformist challenges to the conservative local government establishment have usually been decoupled from organised labour. So the key entry point for working class minorities to enter Left politics directly does not exist. Minority politics, instead, tends to be driven to an even greater degree than in most Western countries by community leaders, and who is better at playing the ensuing game of arbitrage than the Liberals?

I would say there is a municipal contratrian tradition, at least in Quebec.
Left-wingers elected in right-wing cities (see Quebec City) and right-wingers in left-wing cities (see Saguenay with the ultra-Catholic Jean Tremblay).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1473 on: October 21, 2019, 05:02:42 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2019, 05:11:50 PM by DistingFlyer »

For anyone interested, here's a link to constituency-level figures for every general election from 1949 (the first with all ten provinces) to 2015. Will add 2019's results once they're finalized.

(The folder also contains similar data for six provinces' electoral histories; will add more eventually.)

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR
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Pericles
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« Reply #1474 on: October 21, 2019, 05:12:12 PM »

I'm not sure what to expect from this election, it seems really close. Gut feeling is probably that the Conservatives get the most seats, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals outperformed either.
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